Should the Brewers extend Weeks? [Latest: Won't negotiate once Spring Training starts]

[endaround]

Even including his terrible defensive year of 2006 with a WAR of 0.9, Weeks has average a WAR of 2.72 over the past 5 seasons, 3.175 over the last 4. Even when Weeks misses time he still gives good value and that seems to be what people are missing.

[TooLiveBrew]

What bothers me a little bit is the time and loyalty the Brewers showed to Weeks

 

Loyalty like offering him less than $5M in his final arbitration season? Luis Castillo's & Freddy Sanchez's base salaries were $6M last season, Kaz Matsui & Mark Ellis $5.5M. The thing that ticks me off the most right now is that you don't have to pay as much as at other positions to sign second baseman, for whatever reason. Rickie on Uggla's deal is good value for the Brewers, and frankly I think Genske & Weeks are far closer to reality than the Brewers at this point (if public statements are to be taken at face value).

 

On the one-yr. front, the midpoint between submitted numbers is $6.025M. That would be a more than fair price for the Crew.

 

The only angle on this tough-talk I can think of is the organization wanting to be sure it has enough money to extend Greinke, and only allotting a certain amount for Weeks. Trouble with that is that Greinke probably isn't going to want to play for a team that isn't contending, and the Brewers with an offense minus Fielder & Weeks might not be contending.

[Schlitz001]

The only angle on this tough-talk I can think of is the organization wanting to be sure it has enough money to extend Greinke, and only allotting a certain amount for Weeks. Trouble with that is that Greinke probably isn't going to want to play for a team that isn't contending, and the Brewers with an offense minus Fielder & Weeks might not be contending.

I don't think the Brewers lowballing Weeks has anything to do with Greinke. Remember Greinke didn't even want to be part of this team until the Marcum deal, which signaled to him that Prince was staying 1 more year. The Brewers will have a really hard time signing Greinke without Prince and limited funds, but without Weeks I think it's really a long shot. All of the Brewers focus right now should be on signing Weeks and then Greinke/Marcum.

 

I can only assume that this deal isn't done because the front office is concerned with his injury history. Rickie and his people have every right to be upset that this isn't getting done. Second base is a premium position and Weeks is one of the few premium sluggers at the position. When the season starts, one of two things will happen, either Weeks get out to an early hot start like he did last year and the Brewers have no chance of signing him or he gets injured again and this thread is on page 36. I have a feeling it will be the former.

[danzig6767]

Not really surprising. I would have been more surprised if they announced a multi-year deal. I think most teams opperate this way. Discuss a multi-year deal up until figures are exchanged, get a one year deal done then go back to working on a multi-year deal.

 

It is a little surprisning how far apart they are on the arbitration numbers though.

I hope the first part of your comment is what plays out. However, things like this --

 

"So, we're willing to go and extend, but there's a limit to the

level we're willing to extend. We'll have to work our way through that

if we can. We still have time, but if there's a belief on Genske's side

that Rickie Weeks is similar to Dan Uggla, then we're going to have a

problem."

 

make me worry that a lesser version of The Paul Molitor Free Agent Experience is on the way. If I'm Rickie, the problem is the Brewers acting like I have no leverage, and that I'm not already a better all-around player than Uggla. If they want to wait me out, that's fine. I'll go have another great season & get at least Uggla money in FA. I just don't think the injury risk with Weeks is more significant than it is with any other player at this point.

 

I understand the injury element to this discussion, but imo the Brewers are severely overplaying that hand, and are at serious risk of burning bridges with Rickie on an extension. I hope I'm wrong & overreacting.

From the Brewers side of this though, Weeks injury history is a fact and extensive. Not only has Weeks missed a ton of games via injury, Uggla hasn't had a single season with a sub-.800 OPS. Uggla has missed only 30 games over five seasons combined, while except for last year, Weeks has missed over 30 games in every single season, sometimes double the 30 games total. Rickie obviously had a fabulous season last year and has been at least average or better in previous seasons, but he clearly hasn't been as consistently healthy or productive in his career as Uggla has outside of last season.

 

So i can understand why the Brewers would say to Rickie, we think you're a fine player, but given everything involved, Uggla deserves to have a bigger contract. What we don't know as fans though is, to what degree is Melvin trying to get Weeks signed at a price lower than Uggla? Is their offer say 5yr/44 million? 5yr/50 million? Less than both of those?

 

When it's said the differences in demands between a player/team is significant or substantial, that can mean different things depending on the situation. Because of that, we don't know if the Brewers are really are trying to get Weeks at an unrealistic bargain or if the offer is reasonably close enough to the Uggla contract to seem fair from the Brewers perspective when the more consistent health and production of Uggla is factored in?

[Invader3K]

Rickie on Uggla's deal is good value for the Brewers, and frankly I think Genske & Weeks are far closer to reality than the Brewers at this point (if public statements are to be taken at face value).

 

I think this is really easy to say when it's not your money. If he plays for the next five years like he did in 2010, sure, you're absolutely right. If he plays like he did over the past five years for the next five years (and has a similar health history), then it's lousy.

[endaround]

It isn't lousy, its right in line with market rates. Uggla's deal is a problem for Uggla because he won't or shouldn't be at 2B for most of it, perhaps starting in 2012. Weeks doesn't have that issue. $12m buys 2.4-2.6 wins right now.

[kramnoj]

$12m buys 2.4-2.6 wins right now.

 

And Weeks has hit that number in 2 out of 5 seasons. A weighted projection would indicate that Uggla's deal would be a good deal, but I wouldn't feel all that comfortable just looking at a projection and calling it a day when spending tens of millions of dollars.

[clancyphile]

Weeks has missed about 1/3 of the games in his five full ML seasons: He appeared in 539 out of 810 games.

 

However, he did seem to put it all together. I'd offer Weeks a six-year, $62 million deal.

[Invader3K]

Weeks has missed about 1/3 of the games in his five full ML seasons: He appeared in 539 out of 810 games.

 

However, he did seem to put it all together. I'd offer Weeks a six-year, $62 million deal.

That might not get it done though, if Weeks is holding out for a deal just like Uggla's.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think this is really easy to say when it's not your money.

 

I feel confident saying that I would still feel this way if it were my money. For better or worse, I'm completely sold on Weeks. It's not like this was Casey McGehee coming out of nowhere, this is a guy who was long predicted to be this talented. Anyway, it's not really Mark A.'s money anyway, since he probably doesn't have to dip into his personal funds to sign players.

 

 

So i can understand why the Brewers would say to Rickie, we think you're a fine player, but given everything involved, Uggla deserves to have a bigger contract.

 

If you think players should be paid on what they have done in the past, then yes. But if you're attempting to pay a player for what he'll reasonably do in the future, no. And while I understand past performance & injury history factors into projecting a player in the future, I just don't see Weeks as any bigger an injury risk than anyone else.

 

 

What we don't know as fans though is, to what degree is Melvin trying to get Weeks signed at a price lower than Uggla? Is their offer say 5yr/44 million? 5yr/50 million? Less than both of those?

 

This is a very good point. We also don't know if Genske & Weeks are trying to get something like 6/$75M.

 

I'll just have to be patient. My concern is that I don't think the Brewers can afford to lose Weeks. With Gamel ready to step in after Prince moves on, I think the org. is alright. But if you're talking Eric Farris or 1-yr. FA deals, then I think it's going to be a major step backward.

[gregmag]

So i can understand why the Brewers would say to Rickie, we think you're a fine player, but given everything involved, Uggla deserves to have a bigger contract.

 

If you think players should be paid on what they have done in the past, then yes. But if you're attempting to pay a player for what he'll reasonably do in the future, no. And while I understand past performance & injury history factors into projecting a player in the future, I just don't see Weeks as any bigger an injury risk than anyone else.

This is exactly the point I wanted to bring up. For purposes of Weeks' next contract, his injury history matters if (a) it gives us reason to think he's going to get hurt in the future, and/or (b) it has sufficiently cut his playing time that we don't really have a basis for deciding how good he is when healthy. I personally don't think (b) is a problem; he hasn't exactly been consistent, but he generally has put wins on the board when healthy, and he appears to have improved various elements of his game over time, which comports with his work ethic.

 

I think the real issue is (a). I'm not very confident about predicting future health based on past injuries, and I'm not sure anybody is. That may be what's making this negotiation so difficult: Weeks' camp is probably saying "he's healthy now"; the Brewers are probably saying "he's likely to get hurt at the same rate he has in the past"; and nobody has a fully credible way to resolve the disagreement.

[Ennder]

I'm sold on Weeks from a production standpoint but he is no less injury prone now than he was before his full season last year. Those wrists are always going to be a big injury risk. He would have to play 3 or 4 full seasons in a row for them to worry me less than they did while he was hitting the DL every year.

[RobDeer 45]

Man after reading that article today I had a lot of emotions go through my head. One I don't think you can fully pay him like he's been doing what he did last year every year. Then I thought, well he's supposed to be a stud, maybe he's worth it. Then I was nervous that we'd pay too much for him and he'd get hurt again!

 

I'm almost leaning towards letting him play this season out and then work on the signing. If he has another killer year and stays healthy then he's probably worth it. If he has a lesser year or has injuries we can probably sign him at a discount....if we want to. If they are not budging off that top dollar amount then nothing is hurt by letting him prove he can do it again.

 

All that said I really do want him on our team. Losing him and Prince would be tough.

[logan82]

Maybe the difference is Weeks wants the money all guaranteed and the Brewers want most of it under games played incentives. If he plays he is more than worth it. If he only plays half a season he is worth the money Uggla got.

[RockCoCougars]

I sure hope the Brewers brass isn't messing things up with Weeks. First, why is Ash spouting off to the press? Weeks is a much better all around player than Uggla, and it's not even really very close. Secondly, why are they lowballing him so much in arbitration? It's almost like they've come to an impasse in negotiations with his new agent, and they're trying to stir up some acrimony with him, so the fans won't be so upset when he walks. This is why they should have done this deal last year at this time.

[Patrick425]

I saw a brief segment of "Hot Stove" on the MLB network last night. I think they were talking to Rosenthal in regards to the Brewers negotiations with Weeks. Rosenthal said something like "If the Brewers can't retain Weeks beyond this year, they will have to find a replacement, but they have a good one right now in their system". Then he didn't say who he was talking about. My guess is that he was thinking of Lawrie...totally forgetting that he was traded.

[crewcrazy]

The organization has been trying to hype Farris as a reasonable replacement to anyone that will listen. If he's getting his negotiation info from someone in the organization, it wouldn't surprise me if that's who he meant. I don't personally buy Farris as a major league player, but the front office apparently does.

[kramnoj]

Farris is the stopgap apparent for Weeks. Some people are impressed with the career batting average of .296 in the minors and the 70 SB in 2009.

[clancyphile]

Farris is the stopgap apparent for Weeks. Some people are impressed with the career batting average of .296 in the minors and the 70 SB in 2009.

He'd be okay, as far as 2B goes, better D, and more speed. But Rickie's pop would be very helpful if/when Prince walks.

[Warning Track Power]

This entire thing sickens me as a fan after the amazing offseason we have had. Losing Fielder after 2011 and potentially losing Weeks after 2011 looks like an enormous step backwards regardless of Greinke and Marcum's presence in 2012. Like a lot of others on this board have already said, injuries can't be predicted and considering this with Weeks is ridiculous. Yes his wrists might always be a concern but who are we going to get to replace him? Farris? Please. A lineup with Betancourt, Gomez, Farris sure does ring of 2001-2003 all over again.

 

Looks like another JJ Hardy situation to me where we essentially push the player out the door. I hope I am wrong but I am getting the same feeling based on what was offered and what Rickie is really worth. I for one believe him to be a $7MM player now and would have no problem offering him a 4 year deal where his salary extends $1 per year or something along these lines:

 

2012: $8MM

2013: $9MM

2014: $10MM

2015: $11MM

 

4 year/$38MM

 

An organization that willingly will spend $10MM on pitchers like Suppan, Gagne or Wolf (who I like but not at $10MM) won't spend the money on a legitimate Top 5 2B/leadoff hitter in all baseball is absurd. They set the homegrown Brewer market with the Hart deal at 3yr/$26MM. Weeks is worth more than Hart already and should be paid accordingly.

[ramssuperbowl99]

The organization has been trying to hype Farris as a reasonable replacement to anyone that will listen. If he's getting his negotiation info from someone in the organization, it wouldn't surprise me if that's who he meant. I don't personally buy Farris as a major league player, but the front office apparently does.

This is what upsets me about the timing of the Lawrie deal. That cost us a fair bit of leverage, and the Weeks camp knows just as well as anyone that if the Brewers start 2012 with Eric Farris entrenched at 2B we aren't going to be enjoying Greinke's final season in Milwaukee.

Honestly, the answer to this is a deal that could escalate to Uggla's contract based on games played. Set the baseline at his current play over the next 4-5 years (so $9M or so) and offer $3M or so in GP incentives each season. If he stays healthy, he could get as much as $60M or so - basically the Uggla deal that he wants. If he doesn't, he still gets paid, but not as much.

[kramnoj]

I for one believe him to be a $7MM player now and would have no problem offering him a 4 year deal where his salary extends $1 per year or something along these lines:

 

You don't know what the Brewers are offering. Calling the situation ridiculous without knowing this doesn't make a lot of sense. If Weeks is asking for 5 years and $62M, he is looking for a guarantee of 50% more than what you are offering.

[Warning Track Power]

I for one believe him to be a $7MM player now and would have no problem offering him a 4 year deal where his salary extends $1 per year or something along these lines:

 

You don't know what the Brewers are offering. Calling the situation ridiculous without knowing this doesn't make a lot of sense. If Weeks is asking for 5 years and $62M, he is looking for a guarantee of 50% more than what you are offering.

You're right. I do not know what they are offering Rickie. However, we do know they are offering him $4.85MM for 2011 which is low for a player of his caliber. Yes it may be arbitration gamesmanship. But as an organization, with the arbitration number offered, the Brewers front office is telling me they believe Corey Hart is worth almost double 3yrs/$26.5MM (Average annual salary approximately $9MM. Hart's 2011 salary is $6.5MM) then Rickie Weeks in 2011. As I stated previously, the Brewers have set the market for homegrown players wth the Hart deal. If I am Rickie, I want $9MM average per season at least on my new deal. Hence the breakdown of my proposed deal.

 

Do I think Rickie deserves the Uggla deal? No. If that's the holdup, then I agree with you. My pure speculation is that I do not believe that is what is holding up this deal and the Corey Hart contract is really the baseline Weeks is looking at for his extension.

[paul253]

I do not know what they are offering Rickie. However, we do know they

are offering him $4.85MM for 2011 which is low for a player of his

caliber. Yes it may be arbitration gamesmanship. But as an organization,

with the arbitration number offered, the Brewers front office is

telling me they believe Corey Hart is worth almost double 3yrs/$26.5MM

 

I don't view it like that at all. The Brewers are doing exactly what they should be doing. Why overpay for him if you don't have to? I would love for him to re-sign too, but I think re-signing Greinke and Marcum is much more important. Offense can be replaced much easier than pitching. If we can keep Greinke, Marcum, and Gallardo together for 5 more years this team will be successful for 5 more years. We are going to take a hit offensively when Fielder leaves, there's no doubt. And we'd take another hit if Weeks leaves. BUT chances are better than not that the defense would improve dramatically if those two leave. Also, there's always free agency. Derek Lee will be available next offseason. I'm sure you can upgrade shortstop and center field. Gamel will fit in somewhere. SF showed that you can win with good pitching and average hitting. We may need to copy that model for awhile, but if you re-sign Marcum and Greinke and if Rogers, Rivas, Heckathorn, Peralta, and/or Scarpetta live up to their potential we could have a very good pitching staff for a number of years. No sense in budgeting yourself out of other players by paying Weeks substantially more than he is worth.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why overpay for him if you don't have to?

 

The whole point, to me, is that in this situation, they *do* have to 'overpay' for Weeks. Otherwise, to quote FatterThanJoey, Rickie tells the Brewers to pound sand, & goes & signs for at least 5/$62M in FA. I say 'overpay' because, as I've made clear, I don't believe it would be an overpay.

 

 

Offense can be replaced much easier than pitching.

 

This is true as a blanket statement, but not specifically in the case of Weeks.

 

 

No sense in budgeting yourself out of other players by paying Weeks substantially more than he is worth.

 

Obviously the whole discussion hinges around whether someone is like me, and fully believes '10 is a good example of the production Weeks will provide going forward... or if someone thinks he's just clearly going to miss a lot of injury time over the length of the comparable extension.

 

I just want the Brewers to take advantage of the fact that second basemen, as a group, right now seem to be underpaid relative to other positions. This is a premier talent in the prime of his career, at a premium position. He's worked his way past just not being a liability in the field, but actually has developed himself into an asset with the leather. This is the type of player good organizations build around imo, not stonewall & lose in free agency.