Gallardo extension coming today? -- Latest: 5-year, $30M extension

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Lock up Prince and I'll be optimism abound

That or trade Prince for 3 impact players and I will be optimism abound as well.

[HiAndTight]

I'm always leery of these extensions for pitchers. Guaranteeing money for a pitcher when he has three years of arbitration ahead of him is quite a risk. What it boils down to is the Brewers gambling that Yo will stay healthy. If he does, he'll almost surely outperform his contract.

 

I suppose this is probably a good gamble to take, though.

I wonder if the Lincecum signing made a difference. Elite young pitchers are going to get paid during their arby years either way. Might as well lock down a FA year or two.

Perhaps, but it's exceedingly rare for a guy entering his arby years to have two Cy Young's in his back pocket.

 

I think that's a pretty rare situation.

 

 

[LaprilOne]

So if Witrado says it is raining, I'll grab the umbrella.

[The Big Cheese]

Lock up Prince and I'll be optimism abound

That or trade Prince for 3 impact players and I will be optimism abound as well.

 

 

Doubt we'd ever get a "Herschel Walker" trade for him...lock the big man up!

[theavrock]

Love the signing. I think its a great move to lock up Yo. On another note for those who watched the press conference or clips on Brewers.com doesnt Yo just seem like the most down to earth guy ever? I love how he is talking about how this gives his son and family financial security while allowing him to just go out and play. Awesome.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Love this signing. Another Braun-like move by Melvin. Always a good move to lock young guys up like this. End up being bargains for quite a few years. That $13 million option will likely even be a bargain at that point. Can't argue with signings like this. Now it's time to lock up Prince! Get to it Melvin!

[Tbadder]

I think this is a great signing. Remember 13 mil now is worth more than 13 mil then. I think they got off cheap--not Braun cheap, but more than fair for a strong #2 pitcher.

 

 

I do think this means Prince hits the road. 20 to 25 mil a year is just too much. But if they keep locking up important players on a consistent basis I think it means good things for our long term stability. I just think the idea came up a year or two late for Fielder.

[TooLiveBrew]

I love this move! My son gets to keep his Spring Training playmate for a few more years!

I'd forgotten your boy's pairing with Yo Jr.! Thanks for the pics

[jvrocksaz]

I love this move! My son gets to keep his Spring Training playmate for a few more years!

I'd forgotten your boy's pairing with Yo Jr.! Thanks for the pics

You're welcome! They are a wonderful family! Now I just need for the Brewers to remain in AZ for Spring Training once their lease is up in Maryvale... But that is another topic for another day!

 

 

[bucksbeat]

Exciting news. There's always a risk with pitchers but I'll take 5 years of Gallardo at $30.1 million even easier than Randy Wolf at 3 years $29.75 million and much easier than Jeff Suppan at 4 years $42 million. He's performed above expectations at this point in his career and hasn't shown any durability issues other than a freak knee injury, which the Brewers waited to see how he'd come back from.

 

I don't think this means anything about Prince Fielder's situation. It's not a white flag with the organization giving up on Prince. There's still as much hope as their was as $25.55 million comes off the book this year (Riske $4.5, Suppan $12.5 and financial obligations to Hall $7.15, Looper, $1.0 and Weathers $0.40). Considering we're paying $32.25 million for three players (Fielder, Suppan and Wolf) now there's no reason to believe that if Prince signs for $20 million per that we can't field a competitive team in 2012 with $41 million going to four players (Braun, Yo, Fielder, Wolf), in 2013 with $46.25 million going to four players (Braun, Yo, Fielder, Wolf), in 2014 with $41.25 million going to three players (Braun, Yo, Fielder) or in 2015 with $45.00 million going to three players (Braun, Yo, Fielder).

 

I'm simply looking at it this way.... Is this $25.55 million (Riske $4.5, Suppan $12.5 and financial obligations to Hall $7.15, Looper, $1.0 and Weathers $0.40) helping us to field a competitive team this year? It can be done.

[Invader3K]

Just read this was the biggest contract ever given to a pitcher with less than three seasons of MLB service time. Fun fact, I guess.

[YoGasKpose]

Yes! My screen name is good for awhile longer!

This seems like another one of those good-for-both-parties contracts, which is awesome to see. The Brewers now have long-term lockdowns on an electric offensive player and a key member of the starting rotation. Even if they don't resign Fielder, Braun and Yo are reasonably-priced, all-star talent to build around. Great news.

[rluzinski]

I don't dislike the move but the Brewer sure are assuming a lot of risk to save $10 mil (assuming that's a reasonable estimate). Dispite what Brewer management is saying, I think it's tough to accurately assess injury risk on an individual basis, especially for pitchers. Over the next 5 years, it's not really a question of if Yo gets hurt, but rather how much time he misses when he does.

[The Truth]

Great news, I'm very happy about the signing

 

jvrocksaz , thats very cool that your son is friends with Yo's son, but I would suggest taking those pics down. Maybe I'm overly sensitive to it because I work in the entertainment industry (no, I'm not anyone famous, I work more behind the scenes, but I do work with some famous people). There are alot of weirdos out there, especially when it comes to celebrities and their kids. I'm very conscious of the need for celebs to maintain privacy for their families, and Yo's star is definitely rising these days... maybe it is no big deal, I just know that if I was someone famous I would not want pictures of my kids out there

[jvrocksaz]

Great news, I'm very happy about the signing

 

jvrocksaz , thats very cool that your son is friends with Yo's son, but I would suggest taking those pics down. Maybe I'm overly sensitive to it because I work in the entertainment industry (no, I'm not anyone famous, I work more behind the scenes, but I do work with some famous people). There are alot of weirdos out there, especially when it comes to celebrities and their kids. I'm very conscious of the need for celebs to maintain privacy for their families, and Yo's star is definitely rising these days... maybe it is no big deal, I just know that if I was someone famous I would not want pictures of my kids out there

That's probably a good idea and I will do that. Please know that most players kids who are at Spring Training games usually are wearing a custom fit jersey with their last name on it (that is how my son originally met Yo Jr a few years back). Counsell, Hart, and many others kids are not to hard to recognize at games nor do they try to hide it. Everyone is out in the open and the area is not secure in any way. They are always very friendly and the kids always end up playing together. I don't see the pics as an issue but I was prepared for concerns and will gladly take them down.

 

 

[monty57]

That's the coolest thing about spring training. All the families I've met are wonderful, and it really brings a human factor to the game. It's almost like watching a high school game, as the parents and grandparents cheer on their kids. I haven't brought my son out there yet, but if he saw that Thomas backpack, he'd be your son's best friend :-)

[pmg4]

Another comparison for having $40 million or so tied up in 3 players (which, if the Brewers can sign prince is what they will be looking at in a few years) is the Cardinals. Pujols, Holliday and Carpenter make $47.6 combined which is 50% of their $95 million 2010 payroll. So signing Prince is still doable.

Thank you, Bombers. I nearly wept from the beauty of this argument. Perhaps I am still weeping from losing game 1 to the three Cardinals and a team of supposed no-names.

[pmg4]

I don't dislike the move but the Brewer sure are assuming a lot of risk to save $10 mil

I disagree heartily. The Crew is getting a 25% discount on his services for 5 years. I'm assuming that the $40+M projection includes risk of injury over 5 years. There must be an average number of missed starts.

[monty57]

You also have to take into account the opportunity cost of not extending Yo. By signing him, we get an extra year or two of him. If we didn't sign him, there is a very good chance that we would spend more money in the free agent market on an inferior pitcher to replace him. Plus, the extra time gives our Rookie league / A ball pitchers more time to get major league ready.

 

I hope Melvin has learned not to offer these contracts to iffy talent (Hall, Hart), but anytime he locks up superstar talent, I'm for it. Sure there's risk, but there's risk in not doing it as well.

[rluzinski]

I don't dislike the move but the Brewer sure are assuming a lot of risk to save $10 mil

I disagree heartily. The Crew is getting a 25% discount on his services for 5 years. I'm assuming that the $40+M projection includes risk of injury over 5 years. There must be an average number of missed starts.

You are right that the projection should include expected IP/injury risk. Wish he broke it down.

 

You also have to take into account the opportunity cost of not extending

Yo. By signing him, we get an extra year or two of him.

 

Yes, but that would be like if the Brewers signed a comparable pitcher NOW, to a guaranteed contract to pitch for them in the 2014 and 2015 season. pitchers just get hurt so often that it just doesn't sound very exciting to me.

[monty57]

Yes, but that would be like if the Brewers signed a comparable pitcher NOW, to a guaranteed contract to pitch for them in the 2014 and 2015 season. pitchers just get hurt so often that it just doesn't sound very exciting to me.

 

I guess that depends on what Yo would cost if he were a free agent today. I can guarantee it would be far more than what we just signed him for. Also, I doubt you'll be able to sign a top of the rotation starter for the money Yo will make in 2014 & 2015. You would probably be able to sign a #3/4 starter. The risk is having him and risking injury or not having him and having a weaker rotation for the same money.

 

Barring injury, Yo is very likely to continue to be a good pitcher, so while regression is always a concern with long term deals, it is significantly reduced with someone like Yo than it is with someone like Wolf. Therefore, the main risk is injury which can be mitigated by Lloyd's of London. Plus, the team option mitigates the risk by reducing the price significantly if Yo isn't worth the price tag. It is highly doubtul that Yo would be dumped during his arby years, even if he were to get injured, so we would have to pay him during those years anyways, so we're really looking at our risk being the one year of free agency we are buying out, plus the $600k option buyout and a million or two here or there in the arby years.

 

Of course there is a chance that this contract ends up being bad for the Brewers, but they have to take some risk. I would much rather see them take the risk and sign young superstars to long-term team friendly deals than have them sign aging, decent ability free agents to market value deals, or have them continually churn through talent, trading superstars away while they are still under "team control," eternally hoping your scouting team defies the odds to maintain some semblance of playoff hopes in the current (unfair) MLB salary structure.

[jvrocksaz]

That's the coolest thing about spring training. All the families I've met are wonderful, and it really brings a human factor to the game. It's almost like watching a high school game, as the parents and grandparents cheer on their kids. I haven't brought my son out there yet, but if he saw that Thomas backpack, he'd be your son's best friend :-)

If you get out there and see the backpack, feel free to say hi! :-)

 

 

[logan82]

I guess that depends on what Yo would cost if he were a free agent today. I can guarantee it would be far more than what we just signed him for. Also, I doubt you'll be able to sign a top of the rotation starter for the money Yo will make in 2014 & 2015. You would probably be able to sign a #3/4 starter.

 

You are assuming Gallardo is a top of the rotation starter. I am not saying he isn't but who does Gallardo compare to stuff wise? I don't think he is a workhorse like CC or Sheets were. He doesn't really have overpowering stuff. I don't think he would get top dollar like CC did. I think he would get a very good contract somewhere along the lines of Lackey this last offseason. We may have saved a little but not much. Assuming Gallardo would get $16M a year on the FA market we saved about $6M if we don't pick up the option and about $9M if we do.

 

5 years/$82.5M (2010-14), plus conditional 2015 option

 

* signed by Boston as a free agent 12/16/09

* $3.5M signing bonus

* 10:$18M, 11:$15.25M, 12:$15.25M, 13:$15.25M, 14:$15.25M

[monty57]

I guess I misread Russ' post and I'm kind of confused, because obviously, we can't sign a free agent pitcher now that won't play for the Brewers now, but will play for the Brewers in 2014 & 2015. Therefore, if we don't re-sign Yo, and we want this comparable free agent, we have two choices: Sign a comparable (to Gallardo) free agent now who will be around in 2014/2015, or try to sign a comparable free agent when Yo is gone.

 

I agree with Logan that Yo is more of a "John Lackey #1" than a "CC Sabathia #1." If we had the money, we could have signed Lackey this past offseason, putting us on the line for $82.5MM, and having him for all the years of the contract, including years in which Yo may no longer be on the team. We all know that wasn't really an option, and since we passed on Lackey, we do not have him now or in 2014/2015, so other than for speculation sake, there's really no other reason to beat this horse... we don't have a comparable free agent signed for 2014/2015.

 

So on to option 2. Since contracts usually go up, and will likely take that trend at some point in the next four years, signing a FA in 2014 for a comparable contract of $11-$13MM will likely get us a worse starter than Yo. Signing a comparable starter to Yo will cost you more. Therefore, if we don't sign Yo to an extension now, our rotation would very likely have to be either less talented or more expensive (and quite possibly both) in 2014 and 2015. Neither of those seem to be good options.

 

One thing is for certain... we will need starting pitchers in 2014 and 2015, so it's Melvin's job to determine how best to position the franchise now and in the future. One option is to wait and see how our prospects turn out and see what's available on the free agent market and what it costs. The option Melvin took is to try for some cost certainty now with a fairly stable commodity in Gallardo. I think there is a lot of risk in the "wait and see" method, just like there is in signing a long-term contract. It's all in weighing the risk. If the player bears the injury risk in the pre-arby/arby years (like Prince Fielder did), the player is entitled to a market value contract. If the team bears the injury risk, the team is entitled to a below-market-value contract like the ones Braun and now Yo have signed.

 

I think Melvin's learned his lesson from signing Hall and offering a contract to Hart that you shouldn't offer these contracts to anyone. The risk is far too great when offering these contracts to decent players, or people with bad history who happen to have some good years. However, when you are dealing with good-to-great players, who have been good-to-great at all levels and continue to excel at the Major League level, then I think it's worth the risk to buy out some free agent years at below market value. In short, don't offer an extension to McGehee - play him out for as much as you can get from him year-to-year - but look at offering an extension to Escobar if he continues to prove he is the real deal.

[logan82]

Gallardo could just as easily end up like Hart but I doubt it. Hart had a pretty decent track record in the minors and was pretty solid his first few years in the majors.