2010-04-07 Rockies (Cook) at Brewers (Davis), 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 5-4]

[Funketown]

Great way to start the season. Time to wait for some epic sCrUBS failure tonight.

[brewmann04]

See there was no reason for that early Game panic and the Crew comes back for a big win.

[craigharmann]

Great win! Didn't look good after the 1st, but gotta love the comeback! Looks like a major strength is the bullpen! For the crummy decisions Macha made on Monday, he made up for it today. Fun to watch!!

[rluzinski]

^ unfortunately most of such data is nowhere near particular enough to consider on-field defensive alignment, player speed attributes (both batter and fielder), and a myriad of other factors.

So because we can never hope to find scenarios that are exactly the same in every way to analyze, we should instead.... well what? Just do what we've been doing for 40 years? 3 runs/game run environment, sacrifice! 5 runs/game run environment... sacrifice!

 

It's easy to sit there and point out what factors might make our estimates less accurate but you are offering nothing more accurate to use instead. No estimate is perfect; we just make our best educated guess.

 

 

[sheethead]

Kottaras 2 RBI with 0 hits, difference in the game.

Add in the score from first base on Escobar's double, and he might be the MVB today (despite only blocking like 50% of the pitches in the dirt).

[RobDeer 45]

Yes let's give Macha some praise here. I thought he did a great job with the pen and boy did they step up. The one thing I do like about having Soup as our 5th is that if any of our starters falter we have 3 guys that can jump in and go 3-4 innings. I feel like this could keep us in a lot of games. Now if Soup is the one getting pulled after 2 innings every start it's not worth it.

 

I still get chills when I hear "Hhhhhhhhhhhhhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee struck him out!" in the 9th inning! Love hearing that.

 

Good battle today and a great series win. That Rockies lineup is so tough.

 

Go Crew!

[RobDeer 45]

Oh and how about Diego!

[SeriesFinale]

Nice little (big) comeback win. Kudos to Gerut, Kottaras, and the bullpen. Great series win against a tough team--I'll be ecstatic if they can do the same against the Cards and Cubs the next two.

 

Gameday says it's 42 degrees and rainy with 14mph winds at Miller Park. A good day to stay under the dome at Friday's and kill a few more Spotted Cows until they kick you out (provided you have a DD, of course!).

[sheethead]

I just reviewed the reply of Olivo's homer off Braun's glove, and it appeared to be a tough play. I think it would have been a home run had Braun not got a glove on it.

[Mike Felder]

Great game! Nice to take 2 out of 3 to start the season. And I love that Diego caught on! (Should have read this thread before posting again in the other one, I guess.)

[rluzinski]

When discussing optimal game strategy, it's pretty irrelevant how it turned out in one instance. We have thousands of games of data that suggests it is generally a bad move to sacrifice bunt in that kind of situation. If Gomez was on his own and thought he could get a hit, so be it. I can't imagine he caught the corners napping, though.

It depends what you are trying to do. R3 1 out has a better chance of scoring 1 run that R1, R2 0 outs and obviously R2 1 out, so if you are playing for run there (when they were down by 1) bunting is the best play because it is much easier to execute than expecting a hit from Gomez. If you are just waiting around for HRs then its not the best play.

You'll score 1 run around 13% more often with a runner at 3B and 1 out, vs. a runner at 2B and no out:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html

 

It lowers the overall run expectency though, so you have to really pick the spots where the value of 1 run is great.

 

And there are other factors to consider. A sacrifice attempt is not always successful. Sometimes an non-bunt attempt out still results in moving the runner over. Sometimes a bunt results in a hit. And on and on. Anyway, it shouldn't surprise anyone that people have spent thousands of hours studying this stuff. I'm not suggesting that there is never a time and a place to attempt a sacrifice or bunt for a base hit. There is just a heck of a lot of evidence that MLB teams currently utilize it too often. It's why teams who are serious about using statistical analysis to aid in their in-game strategy decisions rarely use small ball strategies.

 

Of course, small ball stategy is admitantly exciting to watch, so fans will always clamer for more of it, regardless if it is optimal strategy. I wish it was a more viable option but at close to 5 runs/game these days, playing for 1 run is often a losing proposition.

 

I am definetly not saying to always go for 1 run, only in situations when you can do so without getting a hit. I am not for bunting a guy to 2nd base in the 3rd inning.

I can see why you don't understand why what inning your in should affect in game strategy. To put it as simply as I can:

 

The object is to win games. You do that by scoring more runs than the opposition. Every run you score adds to the probability of winning the game but those odds are dependant on many factors that change every second. The two main factors are going to be current score and current inning. If you are down 5 runs in the 1st, Scoring 1 run barely dents your win probability. Tie game in the bottom of the 9th and that second run adds 0 to your probability of winning, since you already won!

 

So in general terms, a manger is faced with either trying to maximize runs scored or maximize the probability of scoring one run. Small ball strategy MIGHT increase your odds of scoring one run in some situations but it generally decreases overall expected number of runs. The earlier in the game it is, The greater the chance that your opponent scores more runs themselves, lowering the value of the single run you are desperately trying to score with bunts and flyouts.

 

[crewcrazy]

Oh and how about Diego!

Obviously, the nickname is the difference. Pre-Diego, he was killing rallies and struggling to catch up to pitches. Now he's starting rallies. That's some pretty conclusive evidence, if you ask me.

[hawing]

Obviously, the nickname is the difference. Pre-Diego, he was killing rallies and struggling to catch up to pitches. Now he's starting rallies. That's some pretty conclusive evidence, if you ask me.

phxMILWfan and I are happy to jointly take one for the team.

[zzzmanwitz]

Should we start calling Corey Hart.... Fransisco????

[topper09er]

It lowers the overall run expectency though, so you have to really pick the spots where the value of 1 run is great.

 

I already said this, and anytime in any baseball game when you are losing by 1 the value of 1 run is great.

 

There is just a heck of a lot of evidence that MLB teams currently utilize it too often.

 

Do have the sac bunts rates for the American league or can show that they are using it too much because it seems that no one ever bunts today.

 

The object is to win games. You do that by scoring more runs than the opposition.

 

Thank you Charles Barkley

 

Every run you score adds to the probability of winning the game but those odds are dependant on many factors that change every second.

 

I hate the added probability stats a lot, they are pointless and meaningless to me on the scale of the team W-L. For individual players it is ok. Seriously, obviously if you are winning 4-0 in the first you have a good chance to win but not amazing, but winning 4-0 in the 9th you have an amazing chance to win, wow, Im so glad someone tracks this for me. Infact, I did not have the intuition to realize that going from a 1 run to a 2 run lead in the 6th inning increases your chances of winning but not by a huge margin, but if you went from a 1 run lead to a 7 run lead in the 6th inning your chances increase a lot...amazing! The fact the people try to claim that they can calcualte these effects to more precisely than single digits is laughable.

 

Small ball strategy MIGHT increase your odds of scoring one run in some situations but it generally decreases overall expected number of runs.

 

R3 R2 1 out gives you the same chance of scoring 2 runs as you have to score 1 run with R1 R2 0 outs....so clearly you should bunt 100% of the time in that scenario, unless playing for 2 runs in 1 inning is not good enough in the 5 run environment we have nowadays (which was actaully 4.4 in the NL last season) Also, obviously generally it decreases your chances of scoring a run, I only mentioned exactly 1 scenario where you should bunt/move the runner as #1 priority, R2 0 out. At no other time have I advocated it here.

 

 

And my biggest problem with Tom's little Expected Runs chart...it is based on how the game is currently played now where many teams do not manufacture runs and just try to hit HRs every time (1999 - 2002). You are essentially using data to show that small ball does not work when in fact the data is not taken from a sample that plays small ball. The 1 run probablity for R3 1 out is only 48%... a scenario which requires a SF or a middle infield groundout and players only get the job done 48% of the time...why...because they are trying to get a hit. If those charts reflected numbers of teams who were intentionally trying to manufacture runs the numbers would look more favorable towards bunting a little more.

[hawing]

For those who could not see this game today, the FSWisconsin replay appears to be at noon CDT Thursday (Brewers Live pregame at 11:30).

Edit: it seems to be only until 2:00, so expect those annoying "Due to time constraints..." skip-ahead messages. Here's hoping they don't skip over the best parts.

[3Putt]

Nice to see a couple runners moved from 2nd to 3rd with ground balls hit to the right side. Maybe we haven't completely forgotten how to play small ball.

[olliegjw]

Russ, are they any stats showing how hitters hit down one run vs tied vs up one run? I am just curious if that would have an effect on win probabilities.

 

Also, I tend to agree with Topper that the run probabilities are way too generic to make concrete decision off of. Are the results the same if you bunt a guy to 3rd and have Braun and Fielder coming up versus Kendall and Hart coming up? To get more accurate, but still far from concrete, you would have to compare the run expectancies with the win percentages associated with each amount of runs scored (i.e. what is your percentage if you are down one vs tied vs up one vs up multiple runs). If the largest increase is from down one to tied, would you not play for one run? That may also vary on your opponent. It would be different if you are playing the Yankees vs playing the Nationals.

[endaround]

The better the hitters coming up the less you want to sacrifice

[topper09er]

The better the hitters coming up the less you want to sacrifice

I tend to agree but you could also say the better the hitters coming up the more you want to have RISP situations.

 

 

[owbc]

Depends on the hitter coming up--not necessarily better or worse, but what percentage of singles, doubles, home runs, etc they hit. Plus, you have to consider the splits--is he facing a righty or lefty, what is his history against the guy, what baseball park are we playing in, how has that hitter looked in his last few games/at bats, is the wind blowing in or out, is the game a slugfest or pitchers duel...

[sdcheezhd]

What's Braun's success rate with a runner on 3d and less than 2 outs? I may be biased since he's already 0-2 this year but I wouldn't be surprised if it's less than average. And he's got to be better than average in getting RISPs in, right? So I bet the odds of scoring a run by sacrificing with a runner on 2d and 0 out increase less than 13% (if at all) if Braun is the one coming up next. The debate might be moot anyway since we don't know if Macha called the SB.

[BrewCrewForever]

Kottaras 2 RBI with 0 hits, difference in the game.

Productive outs. And he showed off his speed scoring from 1B on that hit by Escobar. Not to mention he threw a runner out. Like him as our backup catcher a lot.

[logan82]

What's Braun's success rate with a runner on 3d and less than 2 outs? I may be biased since he's already 0-2 this year but I wouldn't be surprised if it's less than average. And he's got to be better than average in getting RISPs in, right? So I bet the odds of scoring a run by sacrificing with a runner on 2d and 0 out increase less than 13% (if at all) if Braun is the one coming up next. The debate might be moot anyway since we don't know if Macha called the SB.

Generally sample sizes are to small and any given player's numbers with RISP are all over the place year to year. It is usually better to assume average hitting stats.

 

I am sure Russ mentioned it but one of the things that needs to be considered with the sac bunt is the element of surprise. Gomez bunting as much as he does makes bunting less of a surprise and makes it less likely to be successful. Same with Macha having the pitchers bunt as much as they do.

 

Productive outs. And he showed off his speed scoring from 1B on that hit

by Escobar. Not to mention he threw a runner out. Like him as our

backup catcher a lot.

 

Except he kind of sucks at blocking balls so far.

[topper09er]

What's Braun's success rate with a runner on 3d and less than 2 outs? I may be biased since he's already 0-2 this year but I wouldn't be surprised if it's less than average. And he's got to be better than average in getting RISPs in, right? So I bet the odds of scoring a run by sacrificing with a runner on 2d and 0 out increase less than 13% (if at all) if Braun is the one coming up next. The debate might be moot anyway since we don't know if Macha called the SB.

Braun is 55 for 114 in his career at scoring a runner from 3rd < 2 outs, which is 48% which happens to be the same as the rate of scoring 1 run in that scenario between 1999-2002. This does include situations with 0 outs, not sure how many, where he should be trying to get a hit so that may skew the number down a little. He also had 6 walks and 4 HBP of these 114 PAs so if you take those out he is 55 for 104 which is 53% which is above average.

Also Braun is 1-2 this year in this scenario, he had a SF on opening day in the 9th inning.

Braun is .308/.372/.565 with RISP in his career over 532 PA.