2 games in ...

[FVBrewerFan]

This is why people like OPS over batting average.

Don't you know by now? Walks really don't get you on base, and a double is no better than a single?

[local hero]

A near statistical mirror in BA, but great point in the insanely over-hyped OPS stat...let's see where it matters in the runs and rbi dept.

 

 

Higher OBP = on base more often = more runs (you have to be on base to score, after all)

 

Higher SLG = more extra-base hits = easier to drive in runs = more RBI

 

 

It ain't rocket surgery.

duh. However, when you're dealing with two pathetic offensive players, a

100 point or so difference over the course of a season is SIGNIFICANTLY

less imperative. Just look look at how sad BOTH players OBPS is.

 

that

ain't rocket science, either.

 

James

[local hero]

BTW: what do some here THINK the "reactions" will be within a post entitled "after 2 games".

 

It's a fan forum, for god's sake.

 

 

James

[local hero]

ok, semantics, Zaun turns 39 in 162 hours. Yep, you're right, he's not 40.

 

Agreed, he's not 40. Couldn't tell that from your posts.

 

A near statistical mirror in BA, but great point in the insanely

over-hyped OPS stat...let's see where it matters in the runs and rbi

dept.

 

So we're suppose to compare the two based on opportunities out of their control? When you are getting 200 more ABs a year, you should score more runs and have more RBIs as you'll have more chances, hence the reason I looked at OPS. Even with the advantage of 600 more ABs, Kendall has managed only 33 more runs and 24 more RBIs.

 

In the past 3 years when he is in the line up, Zaun has been more productive than Kendall and should provide the Brewers an upgrade offensively.

I'd say talk to me in 5 months, but it will prolly take half the time.

 

So in 2.5 months we'll be looking at what?

Ok. In two and half months (call it end of June) Zaun will be hitting between 225 and 235, 2-5 HR's, about 15-20 ribs, with an OBP around 280.

 

hows that sound?

 

James

[local hero]

This is why people like OPS over batting average.

Don't you know by now? Walks really don't get you on base, and a double is no better than a single?

nice strawman....whoever said I (or anyone else) didn't? We're talking about the consequences of a 100 point discrepancy between two significantly below average offensive players.

 

James

[And That]

when you're dealing with two pathetic offensive players

Earlier in the thread, it was stated that Zaun's OPS for the last 3 years was 739. In 2009, MLB catchers had a collective 715 OPS (709 in the NL). I do suspect that the collective OPS of starting catchers is a bit higher, but clearly Zaun is not a "pathetic" hitter given his position.

[stoutdude04]

BTW: what do some here THINK the "reactions" will be within a post entitled "after 2 games".

 

It's a fan forum, for god's sake.

 

 

James

Most around here like to keep it mellow. All of your assumptions may very well be correct. Others are showing you how Zaun has been better then kendall over the last 3 years. You are choosing to say a 100 point increase in OPS is nothing. Thats your choice. Alls I said, is that Zaun does not = Kendall. I will stand by that.

[Tedaldtada]

Your predictions for Zaun, Local Hero, are considerably differant then his career production. Can you explain?

[jrodbrewcrew]

BTW: what do some here THINK the "reactions" will be within a post entitled "after 2 games".

 

It's a fan forum, for god's sake.

 

 

James

You sound like my buddy after Opening Day who said "Yep, they'll be lucky to win 60 games this year". I called him Debbie Downer.

 

After 2 games, I'm looking for positives thus far. I'm don't want to hear any re-hash about how terrible Kendall is. If Zaun goes on a Brad Nelson-type streak of 0-27, then maybe you'll have a point. I'm not concerned after 2 games though. Just my $.02.

 

[local hero]

BTW: what do some here THINK the "reactions" will be within a post entitled "after 2 games".

 

It's a fan forum, for god's sake.

 

 

James

Most around here like to keep it mellow. All of your assumptions may very well be correct. Others are showing you how Zaun has been better then kendall over the last 3 years. You are choosing to say a 100 point increase in OPS is nothing. Thats your choice. Alls I said, is that Zaun does not = Kendall. I will stand by that.

well, he has been better than Kendall....just narrrowly enough however that, in my opinion, I would hardly call him an "upgrade". More like an uptick. I do not place a lot of faith in his year-long output to win games for this team. Just as I didn't with Kendall.

 

Those who rightly said Kendall has been a poorer offensive player over the last 3 years are/were correct. If I seemed to infer otherwise, that was not my intention.

 

James

[jhart05]

After 2 games? Really?

 

And one of those games was against one of the Top 10, maybe Top 5 pitchers in the NL.

 

Wow.

[local hero]

Your predictions for Zaun, Local Hero, are considerably differant then his career production. Can you explain?

He's a career .250 hitter. He's in the twilight of his career with about a collective .245avg over the last 3 years. Although I think MP may actually help him, I look at where he'll likely hit in this line-up and don't like his chances (look at where many of his AB's occurred in Toronto)...I know "protection" means nothing to some in these parts, so, sigh there, I guess.

 

Most importantly, he's been a career back-up for good reason. He's been more than well-rested for the vast majority of starts over the last 6 years. Reality tells me that consistent starts for a 39 tear-old catcher who's not used to them will probably not end well.

 

Those 2 sound pretty good to me.

 

DOUG DAVIS GETTING ABSOLUTELY SHELLED RIGHT NOW, BTW. ANOTHER SOLID STARTER!

 

James

[Tedaldtada]

Why do you have him suddenly losing his plate discipline? I can deal with .245 if he gets on base a third of the time or more.

[local hero]

BTW: what do some here THINK the "reactions" will be within a post entitled "after 2 games".

 

It's a fan forum, for god's sake.

 

 

James

You sound like my buddy after Opening Day who said "Yep, they'll be lucky to win 60 games this year". I called him Debbie Downer.

 

After 2 games, I'm looking for positives thus far. I'm don't want to hear any re-hash about how terrible Kendall is. If Zaun goes on a Brad Nelson-type streak of 0-27, then maybe you'll have a point. I'm not concerned after 2 games though. Just my $.02.

 

 

 

 

Bet you can't back up how you THINK I sound with any proof.

 

Truth

is, I think the Crew are a .500 team (MAYBE a few games

better)...that'd be an actual IMPROVEMENT over last year. Truth is, I

don't consider doug davis, randy wolf, gomez and zaun "upgrades" at

all. Although I'm trying to give some credence to Zaun here.

 

I

think this team will essentially have to punish the ball all summer

long to even have a sniff at a wildcard, nevermind the central.

 

Again,

I don' think 2 games has changed my position at all.

[local hero]

Why do you have him suddenly losing his plate discipline? I can deal with .245 if he gets on base a third of the time or more.

OBP is not wholly represented by "plate discipline". Everything being equal, poorer hitters have lower OPB's. SO, if Zaun goes from .260 to 220-230 and walks just as often, his OBP will be significantly lower.

 

James

[jrodbrewcrew]

Well, we can call this thread "3 games in..." now. Wasn't able to watch or hear the game, sadly, but it looks like they found a way to win and take the series. Nice start to the season.

[diener34]

Since you asked...no surprises at all after 6 hours, I'm afraid. Gallardo will be up and down and not yet a true number 1, and Wolf looks like Looper II.

 

 

Well, let's take a look at the changes:

 

Gomez < Cameron

Zaun = Kendall

Wolf = Looper

Davis = Davis

Escobar ~ Hardy

Edmonds ~ Hart

Hawkins = Hawkins

 

How anyone sees this team doing anything outside of potentially bettering last years version by a few games is beyond me. Although a Weeks that plays a 150 games as opposed to 15 could be a sizable plus.

How does Davis = Davis and Hawkins = Hawkins?

 

When comparing last season and this season wouldn't you have to put in their counter part from last season?

 

So it would be Parra or Suppan compared to Davis and probably Difelice compared to Hawkins.

 

And how do you have Gomez

 

Its clear to me that the pitching staff is much more stable this season. Both the rotation and the bullpen.

[rluzinski]

However, when you're dealing with two pathetic offensive players, a 100 point or so difference over the course of a season is SIGNIFICANTLY less imperative.

 

That simply isn't true. It doesn't even pass the "common sense" test, IMO.

[FVBrewerFan]

I've never seen a debate about whether a 100 point swing in OPS/OBP is significant. How does "pathetic" enter in? 100 points is 100 points. So if the pitcher's spot in the line-up improves by 100 points this season it wouldn't be significant?

[cwolf2012]

Not to mention, a 100 point difference is MORE significant for 2 lower production players. If someone goes from a .600 to .700 OPS, that's a 16.67% increase in rate stat production.

 

If someone goes from a .700 to .800, that's 14.4%.

 

And so on. The fact that you think a .100 increase in OPS is statistically insignificant is laughable at best, deplorable at worst.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

100 point difference is roughly the delta between Geoff Jenkins and Willie Mays career OPS

[zzzmanwitz]

100 point difference is also roughly the delta between Joe Mauer and Fernando Tatis.

 

Also, if Gregg Zaun had 100 more points of OPS, he'd have an equal OPS to Yogi Berra.

[theavrock]

Don't you guys know this is the annual time where the noobs join the forum and then post crazy threads like this about how we can extrapolate all kinds of things out of the first few games. They take on the entire board and argue sound logic with their own cherry picked stats and assumptions. Eventually they become educated and begin to see the light.

 

So James take a chill pill. Re-read this thread and look at your comments objectively. Take a look at all the evidence and points made by others and try to take some things from them. I am sure in 5 months you will be able to have a much more intelligent discussion, but who knows it might only take half the time.

[PeaveyFury]

BTW: what do some here THINK the "reactions" will be within a post entitled "after 2 games".

 

It's a fan forum, for god's sake.

 

But one where stuff like this is really frowned upon, for the record.

[iluvlamp]

LOUD NOISES!