Gomez or Weeks as leadoff?

[CheezWizHed]

I guess I understand if he gets behind in a count 2-0 or any 3 ball count that a fastball would most likely be coming but that is true in most scenarios in baseball.

 

Unless you are pitching to Fielder with Hart behind him and 1B open. Or anyone with Sheets up next...

 

I'm not saying he will get meatball pitches every time he is up. I'm not saying he won't see any curveballs or sliders. I'm saying that pitchers are far more likely to go after Gomez because you have Braun behind him. So unless he doesn't have any plate discipline and swings at pitches off the plate and in the dirt, I'm assuming he will get more fastballs than normal. If someone wants to prove me right/wrong with stats, fine. Conventional wisdom is good enough for me until then.

 

I should add that the difference between the two players would make a big difference also. Obviously, pitching to Braun in front of Fielder doesn't quite lead to the same assumptions as to Gomez in front of Braun.

[endaround]

But he's not a guy you walk no matter what because he isn't selective and has shown little in game power.

[bjkrautk]

I know it's the long-standing assumption but I don't believe it's actually true that batters ahead of elite batters will see more fastballs. I'm not even sure why that is the assumption. A pitcher is always going to throw whatever pitch they feel gives them the best chance of eventually getting an out. Why wouldn't they? Someone will need to explain to me what I'm missing.

This is all conjecture, since I don't have the time (or know-how) to test these sorts of hypotheses with the available models, but I would assume that the pitcher has an intended outcome beyond simply getting the batter out (which will always be the primary goal). I think we can all point to situations where pitchers are looking to strike a batter out, or to induce a ground ball (double play). If the pitcher doesn't believe that the hitter has a liklihood of hitting the longball, and he gets himself out 60-70% of the time they put the ball in play....then your secondary goal is to just not walk them. Unless the pitcher has sufficient control to get a breaking ball across for strikes reliably, that means throwing the fastball, and leaving it for the hitter to get themselves out.

 

 

[topper09er]

I know it's the long-standing assumption but I don't believe it's actually true that batters ahead of elite batters will see more fastballs. I'm not even sure why that is the assumption. A pitcher is always going to throw whatever pitch they feel gives them the best chance of eventually getting an out. Why wouldn't they? Someone will need to explain to me what I'm missing.

 

If you fall behind 2-0 to Ryan Braun you do NOT want to challenge him with a fastball for a strike because if you miss good night, that is a last resort and you wont last very long in the majors if you cannot throw something else there for a strike or get the hitter to chase. If you fall behind Carlos Gomez 2-0 you do NOT want to walk him and have him potentially steal his way to 2nd for Braun/Fielder, so you challenge him by throwing a fastball for a strike. If you have ever pitched you know who the best hitters are and you know to avoid fastball counts to them. You also know you dont want people on base when they are hitting.

 

 

[mletto157]

1. Escobar

2. Weeks

3. Braun

4. Fielder

5. McGehee

6. Hart/Edmunds/Gerut

7. Zaun

8. Pitcher

9. Gomez

 

IMO Escobar will have a higher OBP than Gomez, but this way Gomez can be like another leadoff hitter at the bottom. If he gets on he has the ability to steal and do his thing. Also Rickie should have more RBI opportunities with 2 lead-off-ish hitters ahead of him.

[1992casey]

As a reminder, per the Major League Forum FAQ, please restrict the posting of full lineups to the designated lineup thread. Thanks! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

If you fall behind Carlos Gomez 2-0 you do NOT want to walk him and have him potentially steal his way to 2nd for Braun/Fielder, so you challenge him by throwing a fastball for a strike.

A pitcher is more likely to throw Gomez a fastball than Braun when behind in the count, certainty. Since Gomez has no power, a walk and a hit aren't much different in terms of value, compared to Braun. That's true no matter where they are hitting relative to each other.

 

The value of Gomez getting on base goes up with Braun and Fielder behind him. The pitcher is always balancing the risk of throwing out of the zone and walking Gomez vs. throwing in the zone and giving him something decent to hit. Since the relative value of a hit and walk hasn't changed (as far as I can see) by having good hitters behind Gomez, why would the pitcher change his approach?

 

Like I said, I just don't get it.

[Ennder]

#2 hitters see more fastballs for 2 different reasons and neither of them are because a good hitter bats 3rd. Reason #1 is because they have a base stealing threat on a lot and that most certainly does increase the number of fastballs they see. #2 is because they are almost universally hitters who lack power and pitchers throw more fastballs to non power hitters. I've never seen a study that suggests they see more just because a good hitter is up next, I remember reading an article that said last year the Cardinals #2 hitters saw the 3rd fewest fastballs of any team in baseball as an example.

 

If we want to stick a mediocre OBP guy in the 2 hole you would probably want Hart there. He will see a few more fastballs because Weeks is on base in front of him and he is useless against off speed stuff. Sticking Gomez in the 2 hole is a complete waste since he doesn't make good contact and doesn't get on base enough.

 

The ideal leadoff hitter is a guy who gets on base a lot and has some speed and preferably not too much power which is somewhat wasted with the bases empty, contrary to popular belief it doesn't matter at all if he strikes out a lot other than the fact it is hard to strike out a lot, not have a lot of power and still have a high OBP. Weeks is pretty close to the ideal leadoff hitter.

 

The ideal 2nd hitter is a guy who makes good contact, hits a lot of line drives, gets on base a lot, preferably has some speed to stay out of double plays and ideally is left handed since having that runner on 1st opens a hole for him. The closest we have to that is probably Escobar though he'll need to learn to take a walk and hit more line drives and fewer groundballs.

[igor67]

Given the scarcity of data that actually demonstrates protection affects I am also skeptical that what kind of pitches Gomez may or may not see is that big of a deal. Maybe there is a significant change in pitcher approach. But even then how much of an effect will that have? Historical data suggests little. Historical anecdote makes it sound like this is going to turn him into Willie Mays. My best guess is that following up on rluziniski's idea that because Gomez still swings at junk, they'll continue to throw him junk, and only when they are down late in the count will they be more likely to challenge his straight up. So relatively few ABs will be affected and I'd further posit that in the heat of a particular AB he isn't going to be focused on a big overall trend, but on what that pitcher has done to that point, not making him particularly more likely to guess correctly. End of the day modest improvement at best.

[TheCrew07]

Part of the problem with all of the studies is that they don't measure pitch distribution. Is the hitter seeing more fastballs early in the count? Late in the count? From a hitting perspective they only have to get the pitch they are looking for 1 time in an AB to be successful. They might still swing through it, but they got the pitch they were looking for, which is a huge advantage to the batter. Personally I'm not sold on protection, but if the player thinks the spot in the lineup matters, then it does, because we get exactly what we expect. Take Hardy and all the drama that came with batting in front of the pitcher, it never worked out well for him because he was convinced he wouldn't see enough pitches to hit, things like that become self fulfilling prophecies.

 

Gomez should never have been batting #2 and Escobar should be not be batting #8, at least move Esky back and bat him 9th if you insist on batting him at the bottom of the order Ken. I realize it's been popular to pigeon hole Escobar as the light hitting Hardy replacement but he just keeps getting better each season. He's the kid who skipped school to field grounders, he never worked much on his hitting, he's come so far since the Brewers signed him that it's truly remarkable.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't want Escobar near Weeks because of GIDP. And no Gomez won't see more fastballs in front of Braun and Fielder. If he swings at junk they'll throw him junk.

Gomez will see more fastballs if he figures out how to minimize swinging at junk, and that is a correctable flaw in most professional baseball players' swings especially at Gomez's age.

[endaround]

Given that Gomez hasn't even shown an ability to hit a fastball (negative value the last 2 years) in the major leagues not sure we should really celebrate him getting more. Gomez will be pitched to get him out no matter where he hits (save ahead of the pitcher). And while there is hope of improvement most players at 24 are what they are.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Given that Gomez hasn't even shown an ability to hit a fastball (negative value the last 2 years) in the major leagues not sure we should really celebrate him getting more. Gomez will be pitched to get him out no matter where he hits (save ahead of the pitcher). And while there is hope of improvement most players at 24 are what they are.

Kinda like Rickie Weeks and Manny Parra were what they were at age 24, right? [wrong] Your logic is flawed my friend. No player has reached their peak until at least age 27 according to most statisticians including Bill James himself so there is plenty of room for improvement in Gomez's pitch recognition, IMO.

[PeaveyFury]

And while there is hope of improvement most players at 24 are what they are.

 

Since it's almost universally accepted that players peak around age 27-28, what exactly are you basing this on?

[endaround]

By the time they were 24 both Parra and Weeks were very good baseball players. Gomez isn't. Yes players peak later but Gomez just doesn't need to peak he needs to be loads better to be average at the plate. Very few go from hackers with little power at 24 to something else 3 years later. Could Gomez? Sure but he could also have already peeked as a player since defense seems to decline starting at age 25.

[Ennder]

The peak has moved down with hitters, most consider it more like 26-27 now and it generally is as much experience based on age based. Gomez isn't likely to grow that much in any department except maybe power, I don't see him being better than average even if he does reach his 'potential'. He might be able to grow into a .275 AVG, 6% BB type of guy which would be acceptable with his defense.

[homer]

I already loathe Carlos Gomez. I would rather have Edmonds start.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think the question should be rephrased. "Should Gomez or Escobar be in the #2 hole?"

[Invader3K]

I just don't see why Macha would want to stick with Gomez in the 2 spot at this point. Maybe in the future when he shows he can maintain some kind of decent batting average, and more importantly, a decent OBP. Until then, I think he's much more suited batting 8th. Right now he's just flailing away at the plate. Maybe it's too much pressure for him right now, or maybe he just doesn't have the experience necessary to handle the top of the order.

[FVBrewerFan]

He can bunt. That's the only reason he's #2. That, and I don't think Macha wanted to put the pressure on Escobar. But Alcides seems to be a tough minded kid, I don't think it would put too much pressure on him. Gomez is a guy Melvin loves for some reason, same man-crush he has on Gerut.

[FedEx227]

I really don't think Gomez should be anywhere near the top of the order. He's dumb speed, that's all. Great fielder, but pretty horrendous at the plate. Too many Ks, not enough walks, horrible OBP. He's perfectly suited for 7-8 not leadoff or two in my mind.

[Invader3K]

There's still value in being able to lay down a sac bunt if he's batting 8th, especially if there aren't any outs. Besides, with his speed, the sac bunt can turn into a bunt single pretty quickly.

[FedEx227]

Exactly, but bunting in the 2-hole is just counterproductive, but I can understand sac bunting or using his speed in the 8th spot.

 

He simply doesn't get on base enough to help out the Brewers in the leadoff or two hole.

[craigharmann]

He simply doesn't get on base enough to help out the Brewers in the leadoff or two hole.

Agreed. I would much rather have Weeks leadoff, followed by Esco, then Braun, Prince McGehee, Hart, Zaun, then Gomez.

[thebruce44]

By the time they were 24 both Parra and Weeks were very good baseball players. Gomez isn't. Yes players peak later but Gomez just doesn't need to peak he needs to be loads better to be average at the plate. Very few go from hackers with little power at 24 to something else 3 years later. Could Gomez? Sure but he could also have already peeked as a player since defense seems to decline starting at age 25.

 

Melvin himself has said that speed players and left handed pitchers often develop slower than regular players. There is still plenty of hope for Gomez to figure out one of the more mental aspects of the game in pitch recognition.