Gomez or Weeks as leadoff?

[nate82]

Gomez doesn't walk enough to be the lead off hitter. If Gomez could improve his plate discipline then definitely put him in the lead off spot and put Weeks at the #2 or #5 spot. But until Gomez learns how to take some pitches and work the count he won't be a good lead off hitter. I like the lineup for the most part except for Edmonds batting 5th otherwise the lineup is rather fine the way it is right now.

[greeg35]

True, but then why do both of them get more ABs than Braun and Fielder?

agreed. Fielder should bat #2 and Braun #3 behind Weeks.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't mind Gomez in the 2 spot because he's hitting in front of Braun and Fielder and will see his share of "Get me over" fastballs. Since Gomez has pretty good power, he might hit 10-15 home runs in this position instead of batting on the bottom of the order. I wouldn't consider putting him at leadoff until he can prove that he can post a .340 OBP or above for which he hasn't even sniffed in his big league career.

[davemakovec]

OBP plays anywhere, really. As for the discussion at hand, leave them as is. Weeks is going to get on more, and a failed bunt in the #2 position has the added possibility of moving Weeks into scoring position.

[Flood Pants]

I just don't get the "wasted slugging skills" argument. slugging gets you into scoring position. isn't that what you want from your leadoff hitter?

[topper09er]

I just don't get the "wasted slugging skills" argument. slugging gets you into scoring position. isn't that what you want from your leadoff hitter?

 

Then why doesnt Albert Pujols bat leadoff?

Also, I am not saying we move Weeks to 5 right now with Gomez Escobar 1, 2. I am just saying that would be ideal if they were able to turn into players who could hit there because if Weeks can slug above .500 then it would be nice to have him have more men on base.

[Flood Pants]

Here's what I'm saying. The number one skill for a leadoff hitter is getting on base. Weeks has that. Number two skill is speed. Weeks has that. Those skills make him an ideal leadoff hitter. The power is gravy, and only increases his value in the spot. Let's not feel the need to drop him in the order when he does everything a leadoff hitter should do (and more). When you have a lot of power up and down the lineup like the Brewers do, you can afford to put some power in the leadoff spot.

 

Weeks will be #3 on this team in RBI even out of the leadoff spot. What we need to remember is that the "ideal" leadoff situation, Weeks coming on with nobody on base and no outs, only happens the first pitch of the game. Ever other inning, he's likely to come to the plate with men on base to drive in.

[logan82]

Weeks will be #3 on this team in RBI even out of the leadoff spot.

 

Doubtful. The guy 3rd in RBI will be whoever hits behind Fielder and Braun, our 2 best OBP guys. I don't think the pitchers or Escobar will get on base enough for Weeks to get a lot of RBI's.

[topper09er]

The power is gravy, and only increases his value in the spot.

 

Power is never gravy, power is the mashed potatoes. No one is ever evaluated as having a good eye, good base running instincts and above average speed...o and he might hit 30 HRs as a bonus. Instead it is a guy who hits 30 HRs who has speed as his gravy, such as Ryan Braun. Again, according to what you are saying the cardinals should be batting Pujols leadoff, but they are not because they would score less runs.

 

Ever other inning, he's likely to come to the plate with men on base to drive in.

 

He is the least likely person in the entire lineup to come up to the plate with men on base since the pitcher bats in front of him. From the 2008 season:

RBI Opportunities
	Rickie Weeks -- PA: 560	RBI: 46	Actual Runners on Base: 276 (125-93-58),
	ML Avg. Player with PA: 560	RBI: 64	Avg. Runners on Base: 353 (175-117-61)

 

 

[BrewCrewForever]

If McGehee keeps hitting he will be fine in the #5 spot. So I am fine with Rickie being #1 since he does get on base at a good clip.

[Tbadder]

I want my best offensive players getting the most at bats. Unless you're gonna put Fielder or Braun at the top of the line up Rickie stays where he should. I would move Gomez to 8 or 9 though. He's already got 5 to 10 percent of all the hits he'll get this year. Why would I put him at the top. Bad offensive players would be best batting 10th or 14th.

[topper09er]

I want my best offensive players getting the most at bats. Unless you're gonna put Fielder or Braun at the top of the line up Rickie stays where he should. I would move Gomez to 8 or 9 though. He's already got 5 to 10 percent of all the hits he'll get this year. Why would I put him at the top. Bad offensive players would be best batting 10th or 14th.

I never though about hitting Jason Kendall 10th! That would have been a nice idea...I still wish we would have DHed for him instead of Gallardo just once to prove a point. Gallardo did outslug Kendall last year, .310 to .305.

 

[The Truth]

I'm a big believer in Carlos Gomez' talent. I think he'll eventually develop the OBP to be a great lead-off hitter, but that might be in 2012. I like Weeks in the lead-off spot for the reasons already mentioned: OBP, speed... it is good to see that Weeks looks to be continuing the trend he set in his brief time in '09, working the count and not chasing the low outside curve-ball (i.e. the "Bill Hall nemesis")

[1992casey]

I still wish we would have DHed for (Kendall) instead of Gallardo just once to prove a point.

 

You can't do that in Major or Minor League Baseball. You can only DH for the pitcher.

[topper09er]

Oops thats right, I was thinking of times when teams accidentally lost their DH because I remember some American league game recently where the pitcher hit.

http://www.baseball-refer...s/TBA/TBA200905170.shtml

[danzig6767]

I'm a big believer in Carlos Gomez' talent.

I know this isn't about who to bat where, but i wanted to comment on Gomez.

 

Obviously the track record of Gomez at the plate in the majors is a big

concern, especially his lack of ability to get on base. Mixed with he

hasn't shown a lot of power to at least somewhat balance off the lack of

on base ability, you end up with sub-.700 OPS numbers.

 

That

said, it sure is obvious to me now why Melvin and others in the league would still

want to take a chance on Gomez. This kid is an incredible athlete that

was rushed much to soon to the majors. He can absolutely fly, has great

range in CF, and has a cannon at an outfield position that generally

isn't known for big arms. He's not a toothpick either. With his frame,

if he ever figures it out at the plate with the help of coaching, it's

not hard to envision some power potential being there.

 

MLB

history is littered with socalled 5 tool guys that just never could put

it together enough at the plate to have significant impact in their

careers. It's why the Twins were willing to give up on Gomez. I was fine

with the trade at the time while fully understanding that Gomez may

never amount to more than a great defensive CF, but after seeing him

these three games, i'm even more supportive of the trade because man

this kid is such a talent. Rolling the dice on a young major talent is

the kind of risk that sometimes small market teams need to make because

if Gomez can beat the odds and eventually develop into a quality hitter to go with

everything else he can do, that can then be one of those franchise

changing moves that often are what push otherwise pretty good small

market teams over the hump into a playoff team.

[davego]

Is there any value in Gomez just staying where is is so he is surrounded with our best hitters?

[CheezWizHed]

Is there any value in Gomez just staying where is is so he is surrounded with our best hitters?

 

Sure. He will see more FBs in front of Braun. (Unless he proves that he WON'T take a walk, then they just throw him junk)

 

In fact, I would guess that one reason he is in 2nd is for the support of Braun/Fielder behind him. Personally I would prefer Escobar in that position, as he has posted better numbers in the minors. But I also think Escobar can handle being being unprotected better. After a few years of struggling, I'm guessing they are trying to prop Gomez up a bit to succeed...

[endaround]

I don't want Escobar near Weeks because of GIDP. And no Gomez won't see more fastballs in front of Braun and Fielder. If he swings at junk they'll throw him junk.

[Oldcity]

Here's a slightly different take on the discussion of who hits 1-2...why not bump Braun and Fielder up to hit 2-3, then slide Gomez down to the 9-hole and hit the pitcher 8th? You get more AB's for Braun and Fielder, plus you give Weeks more RBI opportunities from the leadoff spot with a guy like Gomez hitting 9th. Gomez's OBP won't justify him hitting in the 2 hole or leadoff, but when he's on base, Weeks is an ideal guy to hit after him to give Gomez opportunities to steal bases.

This is exactly what they should do but never will. Since they won't, I'll suggest Edmonds hitting second on days he's in the lineup.

[1992casey]

If we stick to the parameters set in the lead (which have long since been forgotten http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif), I'd guess a traditionalist would do:

 

1. Weeks

2. Gomez

 

And a saber-type would do:

 

1. Gomez

2. Weeks

 

But as this thread has gone beyond the original question, I think we're seeing that not having Gomez in either of those spots at this time is the best solution.

 

As far as Braun and Fielder, I'd love to see one of them at #2 and the other at #4, but that's a pipe dream that won't happen anytime soon.

[TooLiveBrew]

I was fine with the trade at the time while fully understanding that Gomez may never amount to more than a great defensive CF, but after seeing him these three games, i'm even more supportive of the trade because man this kid is such a talent.

This is how I've felt about it as well. Your point on how (if he pans out) it's the kind of move that is a total difference-maker is right-on. It's too bad that Melvin couldn't get a more polished player in return for Hardy, but this is a nice job of maximizing the return that was available imo. Gomez will likely always struggle with plate discipline, but it's certainly well within the realm of plausibility that he takes a step forward at the plate to the tune of a mid or upper-.700s OPS... which, combined with his defense would make him on heck of a valuable player.

[rluzinski]

Is there any value in Gomez just staying where is is so he is surrounded with our best hitters?

 

Sure. He will see more FBs in front of Braun. (Unless he proves that he WON'T take a walk, then they just throw him junk)

I know it's the long-standing assumption but I don't believe it's actually true that batters ahead of elite batters will see more fastballs. I'm not even sure why that is the assumption. A pitcher is always going to throw whatever pitch they feel gives them the best chance of eventually getting an out. Why wouldn't they? Someone will need to explain to me what I'm missing.

 

More on topic but I was fine with the trade at the time, since all facts point to Gomez being a tremendous talent, defensively. Whether he has a lot of tools is kind of beside the point to me, though. His speed only means something to me when it can be leveraged into either scoring runs or giving up less runs. His speed is very valuable defensively, a little valuable on offense and least valuable in terms of baserunning. I make all those claims based on typical run values associated with each.

 

He is a very exciting player but unfortunetely, excitement does not correlate very well with value, all too often.

 

 

[CheezWizHed]

I know it's the long-standing assumption but I don't believe it's actually true that batters ahead of elite batters will see more fastballs. I'm not even sure why that is the assumption.

 

- You want to face Braun/Fielder with as few people on base as possible.

- Most pitchers have the best control of their FB

- Gomez has a small chance of hitting a homer and he has proven himself as not a great all-around hitter (so far)

 

So unless he reliably swings at junk (as we both pointed out is possible), why would you not challenge him more than other batters? No, I have no stats to back that up. but I would guess those reasons would explain the assumption.

 

If we stick to the parameters set in the lead (which have long since been forgotten)

 

Thanks for having my back casey! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Nice summary of the thread, too.

[amt2138]

By throwing him a higher percentage of fastballs you may decrease the chance of walking him, but you certainly are increasing his chance of getting on base by getting a base hit. So doesn't it kind of defeat the purpose? Wouldn't a pitcher stick to his full arsenal rather than increasing the amount of fastballs to simple not walk him?

 

I guess I understand if he gets behind in a count 2-0 or any 3 ball count that a fastball would most likely be coming but that is true in most scenarios in baseball. I would really like to see the stats on hitters batting in front of big time power guys and the percentage of fastballs they see compared to normal.