Major "Overpay" Becket 4/68 with Red Sox?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

http://sports.espn.go.com...lb/news/story?id=5057186

 

Didn't see this posted here yet. Most of us probably still enjoying the spoils of opening day or Carlos Gomez' 4-5 debut.

 

$68 million seems awfully high for Beckett... He's pretty much a 3.75 ERA 1.20 WHIP pitcher the past three seasons... but i'm not sure if he'll be that for the duration of his contract. Beckett turns 30 next month and will be 34 when this contract expires. That said, i suppose that is what good pitchers make these days... 4/68 seems more reasonable than 7/151 or whatever CC Sabathia signed for.

[dadofandrew]

Fine if he's healthy, but that's the big risk with any pitcher.

[Pointer1VB]

If it's the Brewers, yes it is an overpay. It's the Red Sox though. Does it make their team better for the next 4 years? Yes.

[danzig6767]

So long as Beckett doesn't get hurt, the Red Sox incredibly vast resources can afford even if say he declines some the last two years of the deal. People when talking about the whole unfairness deal between printing presses teams and others often just mention about what happens in free agency, but cases like Beckett are huge also. They can afford to take this risk and extend Beckett because if it backfires on them, it will sting a bit, but will be far from a crushing blow like it would be to a team like the Brewers or other teams not swimming in cash.

[endaround]

Beckett is better than people here seem to think. His WARs from the last three seasons:6.5, 5.0, 5.3. He's basically expected to match what he did last year this year. So assuming a 0.5 WAR dropoff by year you have 4.5, 4.0, 3.5, and 3.0 for his value starting in 2011. At $4.5m a win that values of 20.25m, 18m, 15.75m and 13.5m for a total of $67.5m. So it looks like the Sox didn't get any great deal but pitching tends to cost more so they could have gotten a bit of one and they value marginal wins higher than most anyone else so its still in their interest to make sure they have decent pitching.

[Invader3K]

It's a bit of an overpay, but not really for the Red Sox. He's a very good pitcher, either way.

[CheezWizHed]

Hmmm.... its a ways off, but that doesn't help us with signing Gallardo. They both seem to have similar numbers.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I was just going to ask if anyone would mind giving Gallardo 4/68 if he was a free agent to be next season...

[endaround]

Gallardo isn't the pitcher Beckett is