TEX extends Scott Feldman through '12, club option for '13

[TooLiveBrew]

FanGraphs post

Feldman has been pretty unimpressive statistically until last season when he posted a roughly league average season over 183 innings in the rotation and 6.2 innings in the bullpen, no small feat. Feldman doesn’t miss bats all that well (6.5% compared to an 8.6% average last year) or find the zone all that well either (45.6% against league average of 49.4% in 2009). He was helped by an above average ground ball rate and a .275 BABIP and a little luck on home runs per fly balls, especially given his home park. Unsurprisingly, CHONE and the Fans are divergent on Feldman’s projections.

 

Even the fans see a regression to 2.2 wins in 2010 for Feldman. CHONE is a lot more bearish and clocks in at just under 1.4 wins. If you factor the 2010 salary into the new contract, then Feldman is being guaranteed 1.8 free market seasons for a total of just under $14 million (scenario 1) with an option to extend to 2.8 seasons at $22.5 million (scenario 2). If you disregard 2010 as already agreed upon, then this contract is worth 1.4 free market seasons for $11.5 million (scenario 3) or 2.4 seasons for $20.1 million (scenario 4).

 

Under all four scenarios, the Rangers are paying Feldman as if he is going to produce at a two-win level over the life of the deal. Based solely on his 2009 numbers, that’s a good deal for Texas. However, based on his projections, backed up by some middling core numbers, this is a reach for the Rangers.

 

Granted, it’s unlikely to blow up in their faces, but it’s also a deal that they could have avoided with little cost since Feldman was under club control anyways and they have seemed to secure no meaningful discount for granting Feldman some financial security. If Feldman declines at all (he’s already 27), then this quickly turns into a misstep by the Rangers.

Year-by-year, per Cot's...

10: $2.425M

11: $4.4M

12: $6.5M

13: $9.25M club option ($0.6M buyout)

I have to agree with Carruth that this seems like an unnecessary risk by the Rangers.

[JohnBriggs12]

"middling core numbers"?

 

Other than not being a high strikeout guy, his core numbers look pretty good to me especially for a guy pitching in Texas. His numbers suggest he's got pretty good sink on his fastball as he's induced 45 double plays the last 2 years. As to his numbers prior to last year, well he was converting from reliever (which he was exclusively in the minors) to a starter, so some adjustment period was to be expected.

[TooLiveBrew]

What the double-play number says to me is that he allowed a healthy amount of baserunners & has had a solid infield behind him. Double plays induced is hardly a core stat. When discussing "core numbers", Carruth addresses them pretty directly -- Feldman's ability to throw strikes & strike guys out, HR/FB rate, & BABIP. Feldman's K/9 & BB/9 are very comparable to Suppan's at a similar age. He doesn't strike many guys out, his BB rate is only slightly above-average, & he plays in a HR park (& had some luck with HR/FB last season).

 

I don't think the money the Rangers are offering Feldman is all that out of line with what might be expected. What I dislike about the deal is that, imo, there's just no point in guaranteeing a pitcher money through his arbitration years when you can go year-to-year with him. Especially since the Rangers really didn't get a discount out of the deal. If Feldman continues to improve, then the Rangers look good. I just don't know how likely it is to expect him to do so.