How much did Braun leave on the table?

[logan82]

I am sure we talked about this when he signed his contract. I don't remember and I believe the market has changed. I am coming up with between $34-53M depending on whether he would get in free agency. I think his defense will hurt him in the future. If he improves his defense, I think he will get a huge contract. Given the current trend, and that may change by when he would hit free agency, I could see him not getting much money if he doesn't improve.

 

Edit: I am leaning more towards under $25M even with good defense. Doesn't that Zambrano contract look beautiful? Highest paid players per Cot's

 

1. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
2. Alex

   Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)

3. Alex

   Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)

4. Joe

   Mauer, $23,000,000 (2011-18)

   C.C.

   Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)

5. Johan

   Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)

6. Manny

   Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)

7. Mark

   Teixeira, $22,500,000 (2009-16)

8. Roger

   Clemens, $22,000,022 (2006)

9. Manny

   Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)

   Roy

   Halladay, $20,000,000 (2011-13)

10. Miguel

    Cabrera, $19,037,500 (2008-15)

11. Derek

    Jeter, $18,900,000 (2001-10)

12. Carlos

    Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)

13. Andruw

    Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)

14. Barry

    Bonds, $18,000,000 (2002-06)

    Roger

    Clemens, $18,000,000 (2005)

    Ryan

    Howard, $18,000,000 (2009-11)

    Torii

    Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)

    Sammy

    Sosa, $18,000,000 (2002-05)

    Ichiro

    Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)

    Vernon

    Wells, $18,000,000 (2008-14)

    Barry

    Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)

[HiAndTight]

I think if a guy hits .300 35-40 HR's and has a 1.000 OPS, he's going to get a ton of money.

 

 

I think you're putting too much stock on defense in the FA market. There are a lot of stiffs who get paid because they can swing a bat. Carlos Lee, Soriano are just two that come to mind.

[logan82]

There are also guys in the past couple years that could hit but didn't get contracts worth much. Without looking it up Dunn comes to mind. I think you are operating under the assumption teams will continue to give out those huge contracts. Those contracts you mention are looking really bad right now for the teams involved. CC didn't even get more than $23M on average.

 

Look what Matt Holliday got this offseason.

[endaround]

For all the talk about Fielder's defense and having to become a DH Braun's defense is just as bad. As to how much Braun left by not going year to year, would he have qualified as a Super 2?

[Invader3K]

I thought Braun did qualify as Super 2 and is actually going to make over $50 million on his contract. I admit I could be completely wrong, though.

[dlk9s]

I think the difference between Dunn and Braun, though, is that Dunn is a one trick pony. He mashes homers. Ok, I guess two tricks - he draws a lot of walks, too. Despite his deficiencies in the field, Braun is a much better all-around player than Dunn. Plus, I think the perception is that Braun can still improve. He's still pretty new to LF and is a heck of an athlete.

 

As for Fielder, going just on my memory of his play, he seemed to be pretty solid at 1B last year. No Gold Glover, but I thought he did a commendable job.

[endaround]

One other thing, are you trying to calculate excess value or are you trying to get an idea of what Braun judged his risk to be and was willing to give up for along term guarantee?

[JJHardy7]

Would Braun even be eligible for free agency yet? I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be.

 

And when you are calculating 'how much he left on the table' are you assuming he signs a free agent contract?

 

I understand the thought of Braun leaving money on the table, but there also needs to be some type of calculation figuring how much $$$ he got with such little service time. Braun is set for life if he has a career ending injury...something you maybe can't say if he doesn't sign that contract.

 

I guess if I were Braun the only concern I'd have with that contract is that it might be a few years too long. I believe he'll be around 33 if he plays out the life of the contract. Holliday was 30 when he signed his deal this off-season...if that deal was a few years shorter I think he'd have a chance to sign another huge deal.

[Invader3K]

As for Fielder, going just on my memory of his play, he seemed to be pretty solid at 1B last year. No Gold Glover, but I thought he did a commendable job.

He definitely improved last year. He'll never be a gold glover; but he's at a point where his defense isn't a liability in the field, which is something you couldn't say in previous seasons.

 

As far as Braun, I don't want to start another whole defense metrics argument, but I don't think his defense is as bad as some claim. I think he'll continue improving as he matures as a player. Besides, it's not like LF is considered a premium defensive position to begin with, as I'm not seeing too many guys in the NL I'd consider better than him at the same position.

[Teatoe993]

I really don't think Braun is making Remetee shirts in his basement and working in his restaurants kitchen for supplemental income. Is he getting turned down for financing at the yacht dealership because he isn't making a couple extra million a year? If he rips his knees up or breaks a hip I'd say that he didn't leave a dime on the table. Or maybe he just loses it and turns into another Hall or Hart. I'm pretty sure that Corey Hart is regretting he didn't follow Braun's footsteps in getting locked up early.

[Flood Pants]

Here's another angle. By signing that contract, he became "the man" in Milwaukee. He may have left money on the table contract wise, but he's already been very successful marketing himself. Taking the hometown discount is an important part of that marketable image.

[Invader3K]

Here's another angle. By signing that contract, he became "the man" in Milwaukee. He may have left money on the table contract wise, but he's already been very successful marketing himself. Taking the hometown discount is an important part of that marketable image.

I was just saying something like that to a friend the other day. He's basically made himself the big fish in the smallest pond, instead of trying to fight his way into a huge pond elsewhere. I think it was a smart move in the long run.

[sveumrules]

Per Cot's...

 

• $2.3M signing bonus
• 08:$0.455M, 09:$0.745M, 10:$1M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M, 13:$8.5M, 14:$10M, 15:$12M
• may earn
  additional $6M if Braun qualifies as a Super 2 after 2009 season
  (increasing salaries to: 10:$3.5M, 11:$5.5M, 12:$7.5M, 13:$9M)

If Braun continues to hit and progress as he has I'd say he could have pretty easily doubled those arby salaries and hit free agency in 2014 coming into his age 30 season which would have put him in line for a six or seven year deal at upwards of 20 million per. So with some quick and dirty math I'd say he potentially left about 30 to 35 million on the table over the course of the contract. I'm curious how much young talent a team like the Rays or Rangers would throw our way for probably the second best deal in the entire MLB market.

[olliegjw]

How much value do you put into his quality of life before the free agency? I am sure he enjoys his restaurant and t-shirt company, and has plenty of capital to invest in them. He may not have had those (yet) without the deal. Like he said when he signed, there is nothing he can't buy now that could buy with the extra "potential" money.

[endaround]

Assuming $20m/year FA value which isn't bad and is easy to work with and the 20/40/60 rule, Braun would get $4m in 2011, $8m in 2012, and $12m in 2013 and then $20m in 2014 and 2015. So then we have 0+$2m+$3.5m+$10m+$8m for $23.5m. Now we have take off the signing bonus and payments in his early years of $2.3m+.3m+.6m=$3.2m So we're just over $20m before any discounting almost all of that from right at the end of the contract.

[logan82]

Shoot, I went 40/60/80 on the arby years. I way overestimated. I was trying to find what Braun would have made over the duration of his current contract if he had gone year to year and signed as a free agent with a team after his arby years. I didn't count anything past 2015 when his current contract is over. Endaround's estimate above was what I was thinking of.

 

I don't think Braun would have qualified as a Super 2. Braun was at 2.129 according to Cot's.

 

Of the 16 Super Twos (and, for that matter the entire class of 111

salary arb eligible players this year), the Rockies Taylor Buchholz has

the least amount of major league service time at 2.140

[danzig6767]

When guys like Braun and others have signed these type of contracts early i their careers, i'm surprised they weren't able to get more cash early in the deals than they did.

[HiAndTight]

Would Braun even be eligible for free agency yet? I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be.

 

And when you are calculating 'how much he left on the table' are you assuming he signs a free agent contract?

 

I understand the thought of Braun leaving money on the table, but there also needs to be some type of calculation figuring how much $$$ he got with such little service time. Braun is set for life if he has a career ending injury...something you maybe can't say if he doesn't sign that contract.

 

I guess if I were Braun the only concern I'd have with that contract is that it might be a few years too long. I believe he'll be around 33 if he plays out the life of the contract. Holliday was 30 when he signed his deal this off-season...if that deal was a few years shorter I think he'd have a chance to sign another huge deal.

 

No, you need to have 6 years of service time in to be considered a Free Agent. Braun is still well short of that going into his 4th season. So he would have 3 more seasons before he would become a FA. I believe we ended up buying out three years of Free Agency for Braun. A good deal for us obviously. If you think he gets just 15 a year, we end up getting him for free the other 5. Of course...we assume a great deal of risk.

[logan82]

08-10 are prearby years. He would have been eligible for arby after this year so 11-13 would be his arby years. We bought out 2 free agent years.

[jeffy]

If he rips his knees up or breaks a hip I'd say that he didn't leave a dime on the table. Or maybe he just loses it and turns into another Hall or Hart. I'm pretty sure that Corey Hart is regretting he didn't follow Braun's footsteps in getting locked up early.

Exactly...except I'd leave out the "if".

Since at the time the contract was signed the future was unknown, I'd say he did not leave anything on the table no matter what happens. He chose a risk-free guarantee of $45,000,000 or so, rather than the possibility of much more, but some risk of much less.

As someone else indicated, the only thing that I don't understand is why guys like Braun don't demand more money in the early years. If it were me, I think I'd want the pay to be more equal in each year of the contract. Why not, say, something like $2-3 million escalating to $6 million rather than a few hundred thousand escalating to $12 million?

[Invader3K]

The thing to keep in mind is that when Braun signed the contract, he had barely one full year of MLB service time in. While the signs probably pointed to him being highly productive, the risk was in the fact ended up being a "one year wonder." That's why the Brewers didn't have to grossly overpay to lock him up.

[logan82]

I think endaround has a pretty accurate guess at around $20M. That really isn't much. Like others have said, he got stability. I started this thread because people were throwing around numbers like $50M+ that he left on the table. That just seemed way out of line.

[xiaogao]

i think it's safe to say that unlike most players, braun understands the time value of money. while he may have left a bit on the table in the baseball world, his ability to take a lot up front and invest it wisely will pay huge dividends in the future. i have a feeling he's not going to be one of the 50% of pro athletes who's bankrupt five years after retirement.

[DuWayne Steurer]

xiaogao wrote: i have a feeling he's not going to be one of the 50% of pro athletes who's bankrupt five years after retirement.

As I was reading this thread, I was thinking the same thing. Brauny doesn't strike me as a guy who doesn't understand how money works, and that having a big contract means he has unlimited resources.

[Nottso]

I've also been of the opinion that Braun's confidence played a large part in this matter, on a couple of different fronts. First, I'm fairly sure he was a business major, applied himself, and did rather well academically. I'm guessing his thoughts were along the lines of "I don't need $150m to be a success. Give me this solid (assured) stake, and I'll use my own acumen to amass my fortune, and enjoy myself in the process."

 

Secondly, I think "the money" is so important to pro athletes because it's the only yardstick they have by which to measure themselves amongst their peers. The All Star Game is a joke. Gold Gloves are a joke. All of the prestige awards are jokes. None of these things mean anything anymore. The following is certainly off-topic, but I think somewhat relevant overall. I remember right after Favre won his first MVP, John Elway got a new contract that made him the highest paid player in the NFL. Favre came out publicly and said "If I'm the best player in the NFL, I should be paid the most," and demanded a new contract. And the difference wasn't a lot if I remember correctly.

 

The point is, probably every player in MLB history was the best player on his little league team, if not the best player in the whole league. Then he was the best JV player, and then the best Varsity player. Quite possibly the best in his district, or even his entire home state. If he went to college, he was probably the best player on the team, and again possibly the best in his entire conference. As he came up through the Minors, he was still the best, or right up there with the best. His entire life, this guy has been told "You're the greatest;" now he reaches the bigs, and he is but one among many. After a lifetime of ego stroking, the only stroke left is "the money," and Braun doesn't need to be stroked. He's confident enough. It's too bad there aren't more like him.