2010 Brewer Prediction

[Tbadder]

You know one thing needs to be said. No matter where they finish, 75 wins or 90 wins, this is going to be an entertaining team. They've got enough extreme players to be very interesting. Take a guy like Gomez. I don't think he's going to succeed, but he's gonna be fun to watch. What's not fun about Prince and Hoffman? Even Braunie is fun, though he frustrates the hell outta me. Hart's is going to be run out of town--that'll be a good story as he got too big for his britches. Weeks, if not injuried (I know I know--it's inevitable) is positively goona be dynamite! This is a cool team. Just a hovering around .500 team that's all.

[zzzmanwitz]

How can Zaun be any worse than Kendall? Zaun would have to be spectacularly craptastic for him to be worse than Jason Kendall.

I think he was referring to defensively... even so, I still call that a wash.

[areacodes]

Actually, for the past 3 years or so, the Brewers have had a lot of things go right for them. They have had one major injury issue each of the past few years its true, but they have exceeded their Pythagorean W-L record by about 5 wins each of the past 3 seasons. I would call that overachieving, or things breaking the right way.

Or not. According to baseball-reference.com the Brewers have exceeded their Pythagorean record by a combined 5 games over the last 3 years:

 

2007: 83-79 (actual) 83-79 (Pythagorean) 0 change

2008: 90-72 (actual) 87-75 (Pythagorean) +3

2009: 80-82 (actual) 78-84 (Pythagorean) +2

 

So the Brewers have been somewhat lucky, but not nearly as much as you indicated in your post.

 

On to my prediction: Being an optimist, I say the Brewers go 92-70 and make a deep run in the playoffs.

[local hero]

For as much as I try to skew the numbers, I simply cannot fathom this team winning more than 85 games. But, I'll throw a pair on for what will surely be some cardiac comebacks with the 1-5 hunk of the order.

 

Call it 87-75.

 

Folks looking at the likes of Wolf and Davis as "upgrades", are beyond stretching it. While I think there may be a handful LESS of games that end 8-10, losses are losses. Let's face it, Wolf made hay in one of the best pitchers parks in the history of the game...it'll be a much different story making 15 starts in MP. Most here have of course rightfully pegged G as the only thing resembling a "stud", Parra is a bout as much of a wild-card as you'll find, and you just know Davis and Bush will win 11 and lose at least that many more. Narveson actually could be a difference maker, but who in their right mind would even consider it at this point?

 

Gomez is NOT what this team needed. They will continue to primarily rely on extra base hits strung together to produce runs. They won't steal anything. They won't be playing small ball often enough.

 

That said, this offense should once again finish in the top 3-4 in runs scored in the NL and they'll win a lions-share of the games because of it.

 

Don't look for Melvin & A to sign anyone that any of us will be terribly pleased with in July/August, regardless of the team's position. Last year completely eradicated the CC move in 08'.

 

They'll win a good amount of games and make many more much closer than last year, but there'll be no repeat of 08'

 

Sad to say.

 

James

[nate82]

Bush and Davis are no worse than the Cardinals #3 and #4 starter. So if everyones out look on Bush and Davis are doom and gloom I wonder what everyone thinks about the Cardinals #3, 4, and 5 pitchers are like. The Brewers should win 85 games this year with some luck they could win up to 90 games. The NL central is not all that strong and their is no one team in the NL central that is definite favorite to win the division.

[local hero]

^ Maybe not doom and gloom, just a bit underwhelming at 3 and 4- especially when you're a bit leery of Wolf, you know? Don't mistake me for someone who thinks it'll be over in August. I feel they'll hang with the Cards, but simply do not have the firepower to eclipse them...and they're more than a single arm away from it too.

 

James

[Ennder]

Actually, for the past 3 years or so, the Brewers have had a lot of things go right for them. They have had one major injury issue each of the past few years its true, but they have exceeded their Pythagorean W-L record by about 5 wins each of the past 3 seasons. I would call that overachieving, or things breaking the right way.

Or not. According to baseball-reference.com the Brewers have exceeded their Pythagorean record by a combined 5 games over the last 3 years:

 

2007: 83-79 (actual) 83-79 (Pythagorean) 0 change

2008: 90-72 (actual) 87-75 (Pythagorean) +3

2009: 80-82 (actual) 78-84 (Pythagorean) +2

 

So the Brewers have been somewhat lucky, but not nearly as much as you indicated in your post.

 

On to my prediction: Being an optimist, I say the Brewers go 92-70 and make a deep run in the playoffs.

And those pythagorean records are almost always flawed in the first place so unless you are beating it by like 5+ games it doesn't mean much.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

83-79. They probably gain more in pitching than they lost in offense, but I'm struggling to see who steps up to help Braun and Prince. Weeks is probably the best shot.

 

Defense and bullpen are solid. The starters are greatly improved and should be a better bet to get more quality starts. That can get them to the pen in the 7th versus earlier which makes a big difference. We'll be closer to middle of the NL in ERA.

 

The offense should take a step backwards. Braun & Prince are top 10 for MVP...I have hope, but little confidence in anyone else. We should be improved at Catcher (Kendall couldn't make the starting 9 for the bf.net softball team, but I guess that doesn't preclude him from starting 175 games for the Royals) and maybe RF (if they go with a platoon and get Edmonds some time), but worse at 3B (tough for Casey to repeat), 2B (it took Rickie awhile with this injury last time), SS (it will take awhile for for Escobar to develop the bat to go with the glove) and most notably CF (Cam was a big loss).

[brewerguy71]

Or not. According to baseball-reference.com the Brewers have exceeded their Pythagorean record by a combined 5 games over the last 3 years:

2007: 83-79 (actual) 83-79 (Pythagorean) 0 change

2008: 90-72 (actual) 87-75 (Pythagorean) +3

2009: 80-82 (actual) 78-84 (Pythagorean) +2

 

I was talking about 3rd order Pythagorean, from Baseball Prospectus. I find that number to be more accurate than the simple one calculated on baseball reference.

 

 

[WestSideWillie]

83-79. They probably gain more in pitching than they lost in offense, but I'm struggling to see who steps up to help Braun and Prince. Weeks is probably the best shot.

 

Defense and bullpen are solid. The starters are greatly improved and should be a better bet to get more quality starts. That can get them to the pen in the 7th versus earlier which makes a big difference. We'll be closer to middle of the NL in ERA.

 

The offense should take a step backwards. Braun & Prince are top 10 for MVP...I have hope, but little confidence in anyone else. We should be improved at Catcher (Kendall couldn't make the starting 9 for the bf.net softball team, but I guess that doesn't preclude him from starting 175 games for the Royals) and maybe RF (if they go with a platoon and get Edmonds some time), but worse at 3B (tough for Casey to repeat), 2B (it took Rickie awhile with this injury last time), SS (it will take awhile for for Escobar to develop the bat to go with the glove) and most notably CF (Cam was a big loss).

I forgot one more prediction: Ownership opens up wallets and signs Prince Fielder for 6 years $140 million dollars. These are the best of times, says Doug Melvin. Ticket sales, interest, marketing and sponsorship dollars at all time high. Also, I agree with SoCal's 3b thoughts along CF, however, if that was the case with catching, why did Kendall start almost the season? Not sure Zaunie can.

 

 

[joepepsi]

Last year I was Positively Optimistic and incredibly wrong. Undaunted, I'm taking the same tone this year.

 

93-69, first place NL Central.

 

The Crew starts off so-so, while Soup, Hart, Gomez, McGehee are given every shot to keep their jobs. They'll hover around .500, maybe a few games over into June. By the end of June, starters who can't hold onto their jobs will be riding the bench, DFA'd, or in the bullpen because this year, unlike last year, there is major league quality depth on the 40 man roster. They'll hit their stride in July and never look back, dominating the division in the second half.

 

2nd Prediction: If they finish in 3rd or worse and struggle to something around .500, Melvin and Macha will be fired.

[Roderick]

82-80.

Prince comes back to earth a little.

Wolf has a 4.4 ERA for Brewers in 2010.

Better starting pitching saves the pen a little.

[BADGERJOBOB]

78-84. Better pitching this year but I have serious concerns about our offense this year. Will Weeks make it through the year? Will McGehee take a step back to his normal stat lines? Will Hart have a batting average over .240? Will Edmonds make it through the season if he has to play extensively? Gomez, Zaun and Escobar are not regarded as good offensive players at this point in time. Too many holes in that lineup with only 2 consistent hitters.

 

The Good: I expect Escobar to be legit contender for rookie of the year. Yo to take it to another level. Wolf to be as good as last year.

 

The Bad: I expect Hart to have a horrible year and not be here come July. I expect someone who is not on our opening day roster to be starting in the outfield by August. Eventually our 4th and 5th pitchers will struggle mightly. McGehee to be average at best this year. Edmonds to start out strong but fade as the season wears on. Hoffman to not be as good as last year.

 

Good or Bad?: I expect Parra to be traded before the start of next season. Prince to sign a long term contract.

[Bench Coach]

87-75. Pitching is better with Gallardo and Wolf leading the way. Hitting is solid with a full season of Weeks and a surprising Gomez, plus the solid Fielder and Braun.

[patrickgpe]

i am very optimistic too. I think the upgrades to the rotation as well as the depth in the rotation will be the difference. I am predicting 88-74 and the wild card for the crew. I think davis and wolf will show to be huge additions. If Gomez shows the promise he did when the twins got him for santana it could be a special season for the crew.

[derflotr]

83-79.

More depth, and should young guys like Braddock, Rogers, or Gamel step up mid-season they might nab a few more wins. Certainly not ready to dethrone the Cardinals. I'm just not sure how much better they got. I think folks will be missing Mike Cameron more than they do now.

[patrickgpe]

i agree, braddock is going to help this year. i was happy to see him live on friday.

[HiAndTight]

I'll go with 90-72

I'm an optomist, and I can't stop now.

 

Surprises

1-Manny Parra

I think he starts the year in the Bullpen posting pedestrian numbers. Perhaps a ERA around 4.30 with good K per 9 numbers. Someone goes down, Suppan struggles, whatever it may be, Parra comes back in and siezes his oppurtunity. He's so talented, he simply needs to get on a role and he's the type of guy who could single handedly make a 3-4 win difference. Has a second half where he goes 11-2 with a 2.85 ERA in his last 22 starts leading a late season charge.

2-Rickie Weeks

He stays healthy, and also puts together his ridiculous talent, talent that IMO is unmatched on this team. Not by Prince, maybe not even by Braun. He puts up #3 type numbers. .290/.410/.550 hits 28 HR's and plays above average defense.

3-Prince and Braun combine for 85 HR's and hit .300-.310 respectively, get on at a .385/.415 pace and give us the top 1-2 punch in the game.

4-Gomez and Escobar

Figures it out....to a point. Gomez hits .285 with a .335 OBP, Escobar struggles early while playing spectacular D, but has a Hardy like 2nd half in which he hits .300/.345 and flips with Gomez to hit in the #2 spot when we hit our late season run.

 

Pitching

Gallardo takes another step winning 18 games, 3.30 ERA 225 K's in 215 IP

Wolf steps back a bit, 14-10 3.95 ERA 195 IP

Davis takes 6 hours per game, but throws 205 Innings with a 4.25 ERA

Bush picks up where he left off prior to Hanley's liner posting a 4.30 ERA and takes a no-no into the 7th at least twice

 

The BP is among the league leaders.

 

Disappointments

Casey McGehee-

Can't live up to last year, hits .250/.315. Mat Gamel comes back, spends a month in AAA riping the cover off the ball an takes over for McGehee sometime in June/July.

Trevor Hoffman

Father time catches up to him, he is still effective, but blows a few saves and Macha starts going with a BP by committee approach to a degree. Hawkins and Coffey assume a larger role

 

Callup's

Zach Braddock-

Braddock comes up, starts as a mop up guy, but as the season progresses becomes a key man in our BP dominating the league.

Mat Gamel-

Comes up to stay at the end of June

Jon LuCroy

When Zaun goes down, he comes up to split time with Kottaras and shines placing himself in line to be the Opening Day catcher next year.

 

 

I also think Craig Counsell DOES actually perform as he did last year. I think his newfound stance and the quickness with which he gets the bat through the zone adds a couple years to his career.

 

 

Question-

How this team doesn't win the World Series or 115 games with my surprises!

Can Corey Hart bounce back amid all these question marks and all the pressure on him to be a viable big league hitter again.

 

 

But I'll go with 90-72

2nd place in the NLC to ST Louis who wins 95 games

WC winner as the Phillies deal with injuries and the Braves get out of the gate on fire.

Once where in...it's anyone's guess!

 

 

Hey, you'll never say I'm not the eternal optomist!

[JimH5]

I'm not sure how they're going to score enough runs. . .Zaun, Hart, Escobar, Gomez, McGehee & the pitcher. . .That's troubling.

 

I see them at 77-85.

 

Cards 96-66

Reds 82-80

Brewers 77-85

Cubs 76-86

Astros 76-86

Pirates 60-102

[davego]

84-78, in the WC hunt until the last weekend...so close but yet...

[JJHardy7]

83 - 79

 

I think they'll be in the hunt most of the year, but barring a big trade I just don't know if they have enough offense (outside of Braun and Prince) to get it done. I'm also very worried about the team's ability to stay healthy. They have a few pieces on offense that really have no legit backup in the organization (either due to how productive they are or the simple fact that we lack some depth at AAA at certain positions).

 

I could see this tam having a really good year if everything works out the way it can. If this team stays healthy and some guys reach their potential, they could make a lot of noise.

[DHonks]

Brewers 90-72.

 

Fun Predictions--strange injuries:

-Ryan Braun hurts neck during photo-shoot, has to miss 2 games

-Corey Hart loses ball in lights, ball hits in face, suffers concussion and fractures to face. Decides to play through pain and actually improves

-Rickie Weeks tears tendon sheeths, both arms fall off

 

Cubs variety:

-Soriano to DL after being assaulted in clubhouse by Zambrano for failure to run hard after ball.

 

Cubs finish 75-87, 5th place

[Beast Light]

72-90

 

This just isn't a very good team.

[AZBrewCrew]

im gonna say 68-94 at this point. unless something drastically changes it seems we are on pace for somewhere around that.

[jjkoestler]

I'm not sure how they're going to score enough runs. . .Zaun, Hart, Escobar, Gomez, McGehee & the pitcher. . .That's troubling.

 

I see them at 77-85.

 

Cards 96-66

Reds 82-80

Brewers 77-85

Cubs 76-86

Astros 76-86

Pirates 60-102

Well done JimH5.