2010 Brewer Prediction

[foamboy1]

I'm bullish on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewer season.

Last March I was critical of the approach at starting pitching. One injury and we'd have plenty of starts from players that should not be starting games. With that pitching staff, and to lose Rickie for most of the season....to be near .500 was amazing in my opinion.

This year is different. They'll have some bumps along the way, but everyone does. I like the depth of the roster, particularly at pitcher (finally!). We have some untested folks and question marks.

Will Gomez finally become an everyday player?
Will McGehee backslide in his sophomore season?
Will Escobar be solid or even better at shortstop?
Can Rickie stay healthy?
Will Braun and Prince continue their performances?
Will the offense and defense at catching be improved over last year?
What is going on with Corey Hart?
What impact will Rick Petersen have on the many arms that struggled last year?

As I said, I'm bullish this season. I like the depth on the roster.

I'm predicting 92 victories and a return to post-season play.

What say you?

[jjkoestler]

I'll up the ante on the prediction thread... I'll give a bobble or piece of memorabilia to the individual who correctly guesses their final record.

 

My prediction is 87-75

[sheethead]

84 wins, no playoffs. Way too many question marks (3B, CF, RF, SP, even 2B and another OLD C). This team is one major injury to either Braun, Fielder, Escobar, Gallardo, Wolf, or Davis away from being a 78 win team imo. Two major injuries to that core of players and they are looking at 70 wins, depending on the length of the injury. There is no outfield or infield depth in the organization (especially with Gamel taking 7 steps back at this point), and Corey Hart looks like he could very well mail in a Hardy shaped turd this year. Sorry to poop in anyone's Cheerios, but I'm not high on this season. How can I be when Jeff Suppan will be serving up twice baked every 5 days?

[jjkoestler]

Anyone want to sort through the numbers like we did last year?

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=17382

[Nottso]

90 - 72

[Ennder]

I'll go with 85 wins and whether we make the playoffs or not depends on the Cardinals big 4. They are about the biggest stars and scrubs team out there since that rotation is terrible without Carpenter or Wainwright and the lineup isn't good outside of Pujols and Holliday. I think the wild card comes from the NL East so it is division or bust.

[logan82]

What impact will Rick Petersen have on the many arms that struggled last year?

 

None, they were likely to get better anyway.

 

I will go with 84 wins.

[Teatoe993]

99-63

 

Pujols and Carpenter will both spend significant time on the DL. Weeks will stay healthy and turn into the third stud in the lineup with a monster 30-30 year. Pitching will will overachieve, defense will improve. With more speed on the basepaths and a catcher who isn't a black hole, we'll run away with the division.

 

How's that for optimism?

[Legacy25GT]

89-73

[Funketown]

I'll peg them for 85-77. However, if I had to put money down, I'd probably go with 81-81.

[JohnBriggs12]

84-78. 3rd in the NL Central.

 

I'd like to be more optimistic but I don't like what's going on this spring. The focus isn't where it should be. Management is spending too much time trying to correct what happened wrong last year and preventing it from happening again while assuming that what went well will continue to go well. To me that's like driving with your eyes on the rear view mirror. Brewer brass needs to focus on getting better when and where they can and not be so reactive to history.

 

If somehow between now and the start of the season, they announce Bush and Narveson as the 4th and 5th starters and Suppan is released, then I go up to 88-74.

 

I don't see them winning the division though. RF is a huge hole and they don't seem to realize it. It figures to become more glaring if Gomez, isn't all that productive offensively (I think he'll be fine defensively). There were all kinds of corner OF bats on the market and they never even sniffed around for one. I like the bullpen, but sense that Hoffman won't come close to repeating his 09 and they spent a lot of money betting he's the same guy. There's big disaster potential if he's not.

 

The bench to me is blah. No way Counsell approaches his 09 numbers. Inglett is just a guy. Gerut will be more valuable starting. Edmonds has potential to be a distraction as much as a help. No right handed bat is in sight.

 

Positives: Escobar will contend for ROY. Weeks will come close to fulfilling his enormous promise. McGehee will be solid even with slightly diminished numbers. Gallardo and Wolf should give them a solid 1-2 in the rotation. Zaun isn't Kendall and Kottaras seems to be adequate.

 

There's a lot to like on this team. It's management that's my biggest concern.

[TooLiveBrew]

Another vote for 85 wins. Hoping they're closer to 90, though. 90 is probably where the Wild Card bar will be (just imo).

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I'm thinking 86-76. I like the team's pitching depth, but there are concerns for me especially of the play of Hart and Gomez.

 

I thought last year was Rickie's breakout year, but I will have to settle for this year.

 

The bullpen's performance should be very good although they have concerned me a bit in ST.

 

I can't wait for the development of Escobar as I see him having a great year.

[trwi7]

79-83.

[Menotti80]

79-83.

flip that. 83 wins is my pick

[davemakovec]

83-79

 

Hart, McGehee, Escobar, and Gomez will all hit just OK, with Gomez and Escobar making up for it with D. Braun, Fielder, and Weeks will all have big years, and Zaun will provide what everybody hoped for, a little OBP.

 

Wolf and Davis will be solid, Suppan will serve up gopherballs until he gets cut, and Bush and Parra will both be decent. Those four will all be in the 4-4.50 ERA range. So will Gallardo, unfortunately, who sees a late season fall-off thanks to last year's abuse.

 

Miss the playoffs by two games.

[Bombers]

95 Wins and 67 losses. I feel that escobar will be rookie of the year. Gallardo will be in the running for the cy young. Braun will be in the running for the triple crown and fielder finally surpasses his daddy in a single season HR total. Brewers vs Seattle world series is my pick. I will never pick the yankees because I hate the dark side.

[Klements Bratwurst]

83-79

 

I think they will compete for a good part of the year, but ultimately will have to settle for battling out for 2nd place in the division. Their starting pitching will be much improved, and the depth will help us survive injuries. I do sense a bit of struggles in the back end of the bullpen this year with Stetter, Coffey, Hawkins, and Hoffman struggling this year with injury or ineffectiveness. Bullpen guys go up and down like a yo-yos. Hoffman was too good last year to repeat that again and Father Time always keeps ticking. Axford and Braddock will be called up to bolster the bullpen but after too much damage.

 

The season will hinge though on the offense. Braun, Fielder, Weeks and Escobar will produce at All-Star Calibar levels. McGhee will unfortunately regress somewhat to just a "guy" like his minor league numbers suggest and we now don't have Gamel ready to jump up and help in May if we need immediate help or anytime soon after that. Hart will be average after a slow start, but not what we expected of him after his strong "20-20" 2007 season. Gomez will surprise a bit, and will get on base at a clip slightly over .325, but will never even come close to make up for Cameron's offense, which will hurt the offense tremedously. The bench should be good especially with Edmonds and Gerut on it. Counsell and Inglett should also help. Zaun and Kottaras will provide a nice catching situation over Kendall and Rivera. Lucroy or Salome in reserve if necessary.

 

The key to this season is for McGhee and Hart to perform well enough to provide some right handed protection to Prince in the lineup so that bat isn't taken out of his hand too much. Also if Gomez produces better than we think we could well be in competition.

 

Ultimately, we improved due to our pitching depth and quality (fact), and potentially weakened our offense with younger players, so not enough was done on offense to get us to 90+ wins. When you deal with young offensive players who don't have sustained MLB success yet and are projected to start (Escobar, Gomez, and McGhee) you probably will have the inconsistencies that will not get this team over the top in 2010. They will score runs, but not as much as 2008 and 2009 and will miss out on the playoffs......

 

 

 

[The Truth]

82-80 and miss the playoffs... too many question marks plus the Reds will be improved

 

Of course "if" everything comes magically together where Hart hits like Werth, Weeks hits like Utley, Gomez plays lights out, McGehee proves last year wasn't a fluke and stays healthy, Fielder finally puts 2 great seasons in a row together, all the starting pitching stays healthy, *and* they trade for pitching at the deadline, they could be a 90 to 92 win playoff team

 

That is a heckuva lot of "ifs" though!

[thablingster]

I'll go with 83-79. Now, some random predictions that are not based on any scientific evidence other than a hunch.

 

This will be the year Rickie Weeks finally takes off. He'll have some defensive hiccups here or there, but he'll stay healthy and hit like many knew he could. Fielder will continue to mash. McGehee will struggle to put up the numbers he did last year. Gomez will show good glove in CF, but won't hit much. Escobar will be solid.

 

Pitching wise, we'll be better than last year but probably about league average if not slightly above. Sometime in late June they'll either put Suppan on the DL or finally cut the strings and eat the remaining money on his contract. Parra and Bush take steps forward this year, as does Yo. Hoffman starts to show his age and doesn't convert at the save rate he previously did. Davis might get knocked around a bit as well at times.

 

The team will hang around, but 83 wins won't be enough for a playoff spot.

[owbc]

91 wins. This is a solid team that will benefit from a weak division (minus the Cardinals).

Cardinals

Brewers

Cubs

Pirates

Reds

Astros

[Polish Falcons]

Anyone want to sort through the numbers like we did last year?

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=17382

Fatter Than Joey and sheetskout predicted last season's record perfectly at 80-82. Fatter than Joey provided no explanation and sheetskout's comments were pretty much spot on including "THEIR PITCHING BLOWS! (Although I think Gallardo makes strides to improve, but not dominate yet)"

Guys, we are looking forward to your 2010 prediction.

[young guns]

87 wins, tied with the Cards, but we win the tie breaker game to win the division.

 

So I guess 88 wins?

[Invader3K]

I have them at 85 wins at this point, which may put them in the Wild Card. My dad seriously thinks they will be a 95 win team this year (Hey, if only we can all be so optimistic, right?). We have a bet on the season, where whomever is closest gets a beer bought by the loser.

[jjkoestler]

I have them at 85 wins at this point, which may put them in the Wild Card. My dad seriously thinks they will be a 95 win team this year (Hey, if only we can all be so optimistic, right?). We have a bet on the season, where whomever is closest gets a beer bought by the loser.

I will gladly buy your dad a beer if they win 95.