Rotation Battle 2.0 -- Latest: Suppan Named 5th Starter

[HOF4canrake]

If the Brewers' want to keep 7 "starters" with the big club, then I think Suppan actually hurts the team the least as the 5th starter. If you skip his spot whenever possible, he would not pitch until the 12th game on April 18th, and only pitch 6 times in the first 44 games. The following day is an off day where they could change things up again.

Haudricourt thought Suppan would be the 4 and Parra the 5 because they don't want three lefties in a row...that's the worst way to make a decision. Besides, Davis is more of a right-handed pitcher. His cut fastball is most effective against righties, so he has worse numbers vs. left-handers. Also, Parra does not have the same repetoire as Davis.

Anyway, the Suppan as the 5th starter is broken down even more at brewersmix.com

[thebruce44]

I agree HOF4canrake. It seems like Soup and Davis are a lot more similar pitchers than Davis and Parra. I also agree that similarity shouldn't factor into the 4th and 5th spot. It seems like we are just being set up with a bunch of excuses here.

[logan82]

Villavueva would have to pass through optional waivers if we want to send him down. We can pull him back so we have little chance of losing him but other teams could mess with our roster management.

[NievesNoNO]

If it is truly a battle/competition then Narveson should have a spot in the rotation and I'd say the final spot is still a toss up between Bush and Parra. As far as Suppan is concerned he should just be cut. Why compound a negative situation. He's not even really deserving of a roster spot at this point. Let one of the younger guys or Carlos V. have that spot.

 

They can try to play it out as a financial decision, but what if Suppan pitching costs them a game(s) and a chance at a play-off spot. Now, how much money is that costing? Sure it's not likely, but the guy is just plain not good at this point in his career. Please Doug, swallow your pride on this one and it could be the most important roster decision you make all year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think Suppan is really as bad as 'anyone's better than this guy!', but it's pretty clear that he's not going to be worth anywhere near the $12.5M he's guaranteed this season. In addition to that cost, if keeping him on the roster costs us another, younger arm, I'd say he's too expensive to keep around (yes I know the salary isn't saved). Hopefully (like thunderbat30 wrote), though, the Crew can just keep everyone in the mix & figure it out as the season rolls on.

[sheethead]

I don't think Suppan is really as bad as 'anyone's better than this guy!'

 

We'll see about that, but I would be very safe assuming he will be in the bottom 10% of all pitchers this year.

[lcbj68c]

I'd give the four to bush and the five to Narvason. I don't want two starters in the pen. I didn't want to start a new thread, but perhaps a trading partner can still be found for Suppan. MLB trade rumors references the Brewers inquiring on Chris Snyder and the 11M+ that he is owed. Maybe a Snyder for Suppan/Kottaras/a-baller type swap?

[RockCoCougars]

I'd give the four to bush and the five to Narvason. I don't want two starters in the pen. I didn't want to start a new thread, but perhaps a trading partner can still be found for Suppan. MLB trade rumors references the Brewers inquiring on Chris Snyder and the 11M+ that he is owed. Maybe a Snyder for Suppan/Kottaras/a-baller type swap?

That would be a dream come true. I'm sure the Brewers have tried to make a face-saving trade of Suppan, a la the Billy Hall dump. I'm guessing the problem is that no one wants any part of Soup, because the odds are that he will actually have negative value- where a guy like Hall had some value because he could play multiple positions and pinch hit. I can't see the D-Backs doing this because Snyder has some value backing up and pinch hitting. The Brewers would really have to sweeten the deal with a good prospect to even get the D-Backs to think about it- then they could rationalize it as a Snyder for prospect trade (but like I said, it would have to be a pretty good prospect for them to eat that kind of cash). I think the only way that Suppan could have been moved was for a guy like Milton Bradley, where because of 'circumstances', there was no way the team was keeping him. That might have worked, but the Brewers luck was bad in that he wasn't going to get moved to a division rival.

 

The only place Suppan would be a worthy trade target would be the NBA, because he'd be an 'expiring contract'. Too bad MLB doesn't have a salary cap.

[thebruce44]

They can try to play it out as a financial decision, but what if Suppan pitching costs them a game(s) and a chance at a play-off spot. Now, how much money is that costing? Sure it's not likely, but the guy is just plain not good at this point in his career. Please Doug, swallow your pride on this one and it could be the most important roster decision you make all year.

With playoff races routinely finishing with teams 1-2 games apart, I think its actually fairly likely Soup staying on the roster for the first 2 months of the year could be the difference.

[The Truth]

I'd like to see: Bush and Narveson start, Parra in the bullpen, Suppan in long relief, Villanueva sent to Triple A to work on being a starter again

 

I think we will see: Suppan as a #4, Parra as a #5, Bush unhappily in the bullpen (and giving up alot of home runs), Narveson in the bullpen, Villanueva in Triple A, and ugly scenes in Miller Park when Suppan starts

[joepepsi]

I think The Truth speaks the The Truth. And that pretty much throws the season away, imho. For this reason I will not post on the prediction topic until the rotation is announced.

 

I think Bush and Parra have both shown they are healthy and pitching well. They should be 4th and 5th. Bush will be wasted in the pen and won't be successful.

[The Truth]

Bush's time in the bullpen in recent memory has been less than wondrous. He's the type of pitcher who seems to struggle a little early and then settle down strongest in innings 3-5, sometimes innings 2-5. I suppose they could keep him strictly in long relief to stay stretched out but trying to use him as a one inning relief guy could be disastrous

[monty57]

First off, props to Logan for predicting the "we'll keep them all with Villy to AAA" scenario early on, as that looks like what's going to happen.

 

I definitely think Suppan is the worst choice between him, Bush, Narveson and Parra. I think the best option would be Bush at four and either Parra or Narveson at five. I'd rather keep Villy (or another reliever) and cut Suppan, but I now think all will stay, at least to start the season. What I'd like and what I think will happen are two different things. My guess is that Suppan will end up in the rotation with one of Parra/Narveson with Bush and Parra/Narveson in the pen. As thebruce said, this could definitely cost the Brewers, and one or two games could be the difference in making the playoffs.

 

Please, please, please Doug, Ken, whoever, make the right choice, and if Suppan has to stay on the team, make him the long man that only sees action in blowouts.

[MNBrew]

1. The idea of keeping Suppan into the regular season at all really pains me. I can see the logic of the financial side of trying to get something out of him. I just think it's a terrible baseball decision no matter how you slice it. Fortunately, I don't think the front office is wanting to give him much of a leash. Then, once he's gone, greater "normalcy" could be restored to the entire Brewers' pitching staff.

 

2. Thanks, JB12, for your p.1 reply on Villy's ascending years. He was quite a good starter when they first brought him up, but bumped to the bullpen when they had too many starters. Then he flourised more in the 'pen. He was excellent at the end of '08 and in the playoffs. In general, it seems like he's been most successful when he's putting regular & substantial innings on his arm. Putting him in the AAA rotation seems like a great strategy to get that groove & some confidence going. Longer chunks of pitching at once -- using all pitches in more than short bursts, facing the opposing order maybe 3-4 times, etc. -- could pay dividends (in the form of him pitching like the "Villy of Old") whenever he gets brought back up.

 

3. Logan, Villy has an option left. He doesn't have to go through waivers to get sent to AAA. It's that simple given his ML service time. If it were anything other than that, we'd be hearing that regularly in all the beat writers' discussions & analyses of the pitching permutations, combinations, and conundrums.

[logan82]

Logan, Villy has an option left. He doesn't have to go through waivers to get sent to AAA. It's that simple given his ML service time. If it were anything other than that, we'd be hearing that regularly in all the beat writers' discussions & analyses of the pitching permutations, combinations, and conundrums.

 

He does have to go through waivers. It is 3 or more years since he made his MLB debut. He would have to go through Optional Waivers much like Bush did last year or the previous year. If a team claims him, we can just pull him back so all it would do is mess with our roster management. According to our 40-man roster page on BF.net, Villy has 2 options left. I am not sure if that is up to date though.

 

The beat writers rarely mentioned Villanueva as a possibility of going down until very recently. I think as recently as last week Villanueva was mentioned as somebody who had a really good chance of making the team.

 

 

Per Cot's

Optional Waivers

Optional major league waivers are required when optioning

a player who has options remaining but who is more than three calendar

years removed from his first appearance on a Major League roster.

Because optional waivers are revocable, players usually clear in this

scenario.

My guess is that the disappointment Macha was talking about is Villy and they are just waiting for him to clear waivers to say anything.

[yount19.u]

ESPN's MLB Rumors had this posted by Baseball Prospectus regarding the competition for the final two starter spots:

 

"Scouts who have watched Suppan pitch in Arizona this spring say he is

completely cooked and no longer able to get major-league hitters out.

The only way he figures to make the Opening Day roster is if the

Brewers are unwilling to eat the $14.5 million left on his contract

($12.5 million salary this season with a $2-million buyout for 2011)." - John Perrotto

 

Is it even a choice anymore?

 

[tigerbrew]

I totally agree with everyone who said that Suppan should not be in the rotation. Unfortunately his contract is too huge to eat so we probably have to live with Suppan in the bullpen, but frankly I prefer having CV instead. I feel bad for CV should he be sent down because of Suppan.

 

My choice for the rotation thus far, Yo. Wolf, DD, Bush and Narveson, with Parra as sixth man. But I wouldn't mind seeing a rotation of Yo, Wolf, DD, Narveson and Parra, with Bush as sixth man though. Either way I think Narveson should start ahead of Bush and Parra until further notice.

[Flood Pants]

ESPN's MLB Rumors had this posted by Baseball Prospectus regarding the competition for the final two starter spots:

 

"Scouts who have watched Suppan pitch in Arizona this spring say he is

completely cooked and no longer able to get major-league hitters out.

The only way he figures to make the Opening Day roster is if the

Brewers are unwilling to eat the $14.5 million left on his contract

($12.5 million salary this season with a $2-million buyout for 2011)." - John Perrotto

That's really interesting. I've been apologetic of Suppan because I thought his skills weren't as bad as his contract. Apparently things are pretty grim now. If he really is such a disaster, the Brewers should ignore his salary and make the best performance-based decision. You don't want to waste 14.5 million, but I bet the Brewers would happily pay 14.5 million to make the playoffs, and that may be what it comes down to.

 

This is a good example of how "just one more year" can come back to haunt you. Remember the extra year we had to shell out to get Wolf? Let's hope we're not having this same conversation at the end of his contract.

[zzzmanwitz]

We are paying 14.5 million if he starts, is in the bullpen, or not on the team. Why wouldn't the brewers spend that money the most effective way possible... meaning him not on the team.

[JohnBriggs12]

ESPN's MLB Rumors had this posted by Baseball Prospectus regarding the competition for the final two starter spots:

 

"Scouts who have watched Suppan pitch in Arizona this spring say he is

completely cooked and no longer able to get major-league hitters out.

The only way he figures to make the Opening Day roster is if the

Brewers are unwilling to eat the $14.5 million left on his contract

($12.5 million salary this season with a $2-million buyout for 2011)." - John Perrotto

That's really interesting. I've been apologetic of Suppan because I thought his skills weren't as bad as his contract. Apparently things are pretty grim now. If he really is such a disaster, the Brewers should ignore his salary and make the best performance-based decision. You don't want to waste 14.5 million, but I bet the Brewers would happily pay 14.5 million to make the playoffs, and that may be what it comes down to.

 

This is a good example of how "just one more year" can come back to haunt you. Remember the extra year we had to shell out to get Wolf? Let's hope we're not having this same conversation at the end of his contract.

I've always believed that scouting isn't rocket science. If you've ever seen Suppan pitch from the high priced field level seats, you can't believe he can get major league hitters out with that stuff. Yeah he knows a few tricks that can get through a lineup twice if he's got his command and he can get a couple "at-em" balls, but once any fatigue whatsoever hits him and his command slips just a little, he's completely helpless. It's not just that his fastball doesn't have much juice, but you combine it with no late movement and look out. That's not likely to change whether he's starting or relieving.

[sheethead]

What I'd like and what I think will happen are two different things.

 

Someone once told me I am letting my personal bias affect what I think is going to happen. Scouts, sports writers, and internet posters everywhere are all letting their personal bias (belief that Suppan is done as an MLB pitcher), affect what they think is going to happen (Suppan being thrust into the rotation to start the year). We all just need to think this through logically (DOUG), and make the decision that benefits the team the most.

[JohnBriggs12]

How many times have we read this spring about the need to maintain depth, inventory etc. of starting pitching. Besides from the obvious that releasing Suppan now does not deplete the depth beyond this year, but nobody mentions that there's plenty of depth still out there that could be had: Washburn, Looper, Pedro, and now Chad Gaudin who was just released by the Yankees. If suddenly the Brewers were to lose 2 starters which is quite unlikely, the option of bringing in a veteran still exists.

[Nottso]

3. Logan, Villy has an option left. He doesn't have to go through waivers to get sent to AAA. It's that simple given his ML service time. If it were anything other than that, we'd be hearing that regularly in all the beat writers' discussions & analyses of the pitching permutations, combinations, and conundrums.

You forgot about the zim-zams.

[yoshii8]

If Suppan does make the final roster, I have a feeling that it will not end well. I think most fans have totally lost their patience w/ him, and are ready to boo very loudly if he makes even the smallest mistake. I really hope this scenario doesn't happen, mostly because of the amounty of charity work he does for the city of Milwaukee, but I have a bad feeling that it will.

 

I think the only way he is not on the roster is if Melvin can find a team that is willing to eat some of his contract, or trade us a guy w/ an equally bad contract. W/ the recent reports of us being interested in Chris Snyder and Mike Lowell, I hope thats the case.

 

From a talent standpoint I really hope the last 4 pitchers that make the roster are Villanueva, Bush, Parra and Narveson.

[jammin481]

I think the Brewers would be wise to send Villy to AAA, and hope one of their pitchers (whoever they decide to start) is lights out in April and May and becomes trade bait. Pitching depth is never a bad thing, ever. Even if that means keeping someone like Suppan in the bullpen to eat up 2 innings here and there.