Rotation Battle 2.0 -- Latest: Suppan Named 5th Starter

[kramnoj]

6 - 1 in spring?

 

That was a response to a previous comment that Suppan can't string together 4-5 decent starts.

 

If Suppan had any value it would be that he limits damage and eats innings, he doesn't do either any more.

 

Are your expectations that pitchers should routinely pitch more than 6 IP? If a pitcher has 34 GS and averages 6 IP, he will have 204 IP at the end of the season. There aren't many that make that number, and few that exceed it.

[trwi7]

Are your expectations that pitchers should routinely pitch more than 6 IP?

My expectations are that starters should make it through the 5th inning in more than 80% of their starts. Something Suppan didn't do last year.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think every team generally has to cover 20+ starts with a 6th+ stater every year as well.

 

Here is an article I put together that looks at teams need for 6th, 7th and 8th starters over the last 10 years.

[YoungGeezy]

Biggest difference between Suppan and Parra is Parra has awesome stuff when he is on, Suppan has average stuff when he is on. You will almost never hear someone say "man, Soup was electric last night!" or "wow, Soup's stuff was incredible last night" The best you will get is Suppan pitched good or okay last night. His stuff was alright, enough to win. With Parra if he gets in a groove he is electric and an extremely high potential pitcher and 2 season ago he showed that before he hit his wall at the end.

 

I have read many times people note about how Suppan will give us 6 innings a game but in reality those are not quality 6 innings. Usually those outtings include 4-6 runs given up forcing the offense to have to press just to stay in the game. I personally prefer them to bite the bullet with him and cut him but if anything he should be the long reliever. He gets limited outings and if a guy struggles he can come in a pitch some innings. I see no reason for him to have to start just because of money. That is a horrible way to run a team and you have to take the best option and he is the 3rd best. He has no upside, let one of the two who do pitch and if they can't get it done then go to him as your last resort.

 

Not to mention how much the fans are against it. You don't to have a pitcher ho will get a better, more warming reception at other parks than at home. I have a feeling he will be facing a lot of boo birds

[FVBrewerFan]

Some of you are making very valid points. However, it seems like you're opinions are based on Parra not starting at all this year and Suppan staying in the #5 spot all year. Well, I'm here to tell you neither one of those things are going to happen. It's simply a mtter of show-casing Suppan to see if there's a team out there that will eat a portion of Suppan's salary. That doesn't jeopardize the entire season, or hold back Parra's development.

 

3TO. 1) Suppan can pitch like the suckiest suck whoever sucked, and he'll get dumped. Failed experiment, and you move on. 2) He pitches reasonably well, and Melvin can work out a deal. 3) He pitches reasonably well, a deal can't be worked out, and he's cut or sent to the bully. I just refuse to believe that Parra won't get 25 + starts this year.

[RockCoCougars]

Anyone who's seen Suppan throw for the past year should realize that he can't get anyone out anymore with the 'stuff' that he has.

 

You repeat this, but I notice you haven't responded to the 6-1 stretch the Brewers had with Suppan on the mound last spring.

OK. You found his best seven game stretch (in which he allowed 60 baserunners in 42 innings, while striking out 23, but I digress...). A quick check of the gamelogs shows that outside of those 7 starts, the Brewers were 7-16 in the rest of his starts, 3-9 after the break.

 

 

Those are two different things. I'm not confident enough in any one

start to bet on Suppan, but I wouldn't actively choose to make money on

the team that I root for to lose. You are talking about choosing to do

so, and that is revealing of who you are

I don't know what you're inferring here, but I've been a huge Brewers fan since I was four years old. That said, putting Suppan on the mound is a decision based solely on money/politics and not winning. Personally, I won't cheer against the team, but I fully expect that Suppan will get rocked his first few starts to the point where he has to go on the disabled list again. Obviously, that will sacrifice a few games, but I'd rather have that and minimize the damage than a string of 8-7 or 11-6 type games where Suppan struggles through 5 innings and gets the win. That will only bolster the Suppan apologist company line - "he has _ wins", "he keeps us in games", "he's a gamer", "he had some bad luck out there today", etc., etc.

 

This isn't 1999 anymore, where the team could afford to run a Jim Abbott out there for 15 starts. Suppan making several starts could conceivably cost the team a playoff berth. I'd prefer to minimize those starts, if that takes a couple of blowout losses in April, so be it.

[zzzmanwitz]

I don't think I'm saying anything that hasn't been said before in this long long long thread... but here are my two cents.

 

Can Suppan go out there and put up average numbers and keep the Brewers in a game? Yes.

 

Can Suppan go out there and completely shut a team down? In my opinion, no.

 

Can Suppan go out there and get rocked for 7 runs in 2 innings? Yes.

 

Now if I ask the same three questions about Narvy and Parra, I get the same answer on questions 1 and 3, but not question 2. Narvy and Parra have the skill to go out there and completely baffle a team. Suppan just doesn't have that anymore. Over a year of starts, all three conceivable could have very similar ERAs, however, I just don't see Suppan "winning" the Brewers any games. Parra and Narveson could win one or two or more.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well, I'm here to tell you neither one of those things are going to happen. It's simply a mtter of show-casing Suppan to see if there's a team out there that will eat a portion of Suppan's salary. That doesn't jeopardize the entire season, or hold back Parra's development.

 

That depends. If they showcase him for 5 starts or so, that could well wind up being a mistake that means the difference between playoffs & no playoffs.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well, I'm here to tell you neither one of those things are going to happen. It's simply a mtter of show-casing Suppan to see if there's a team out there that will eat a portion of Suppan's salary. That doesn't jeopardize the entire season, or hold back Parra's development.

 

That depends. If they showcase him for 5 starts or so, that could well wind up being a mistake that means the difference between playoffs & no playoffs.

I don't believe that. If he has 5 starts and gets shelled a couple times, they can still win most (maybe all) of those games. Ask Looper. I don't believe in the theory that a loss in April has the same weight as a loss in September. You have all season to make up for it, and in a pennant race you know exaclty where you stand, what you need to do to get over the top, etc. Lots and lots of ways to blow a game or two early.

 

The big picture always factors in. Otherwise reserves would never start, and you would use your top 3 guys in the bully until their arms fell off. I just don't believe a small market team can dump $12MM without at least trying to get something out of it.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't believe that. If he has 5 starts and gets shelled a couple times, they can still win most (maybe all) of those games

 

Which puts added strain on the bullpen, and while they could win those games they could also lose them. I'm not saying I expect Suppan to get shelled in each of the hypothetical 5 games I proposed. I'm saying it isn't worth the risk. Saving league-minimum (which is basically all any team would offer to eat of his contract) is not worth the risk that your team gets shelled & loses two or three games they otherwise would have had a much, much better shot at winning. This is a season imo where every single win the Brewers can scratch out will be huge, since they don't project as one of the favorites in the WC race & they aren't the favorite to win the Central.

 

 

The big picture always factors in. Otherwise reserves would never start, and you would use your top 3 guys in the bully until their arms fell off. I just don't believe a small market team can dump $12MM without at least trying to get something out of it.

 

The big picture is what I'm focusing on, though. There are two superior options to Suppan at this point, so to me there is no excuse in opting for the 3rd-best choice. We're not talking about the thought that the reserve shouldn't play -- quite to the contrary, the reserve player is being given a starting role ahead of not one, but two superior alternatives.

I believe that Suppan is done being an effective starting pitcher, & that no MLB team will offer to take on any more of his salary than the league-minimum (without a prospect included). Therefore, I think the best-case scenario here is that Suppan is passable, which may result in the Brewers sticking with him until it's later in the season & the games are perceived as being worth more**. I don't believe a small market, fringe-playoff team should cost itself wins by experimenting with a declined, veteran pitcher when there are two superior options on the roster, just to see if they can 'get something out of' a sunk cost of a contract.

** - And the further problem I have with this is the longer they stick with Soup, the more time Parra's & Narveson's development is stalled... Parra especially, since he's currently the last man in the bullpen.

[lcbj68c]

Any other options besides Villy going down in two days?

[logan82]

Stetter maybe. He has options left. I would hate to see that though since then we would be using Narveson or Parra as a LOOGY. Of course it doesn't seem like Macha like Villly or Parra much considering Parra has only pitched once and Villy got pulled after 2 hitters in the middle of an inning so that Hawkins could be brought in for one batter.

[Roderick]

I just don't believe a small market team can dump $12MM without at least trying to get something out of it.

I think that is the wrong way to look at it. The guaranteed contract is a sunk cost, ignore it at this point.

 

What they should compare is Suppan's ability versus all other options using $400K as Suppan's cost for his roster spot. In other words if Suppan had a contract worth $400K would he still be on the roster? Would he be handed the #5 job?

 

Since the #5 starter is going to get random work, I have no problem using Suppan for 4-5 starts until he proves he sucks (once again). By then the schedule gets consistent and Narveson can step in. Since he probably won't be stretched out, get 4 innings the first start and build up from there. I will be disappointed if they let Suppan suck for more than 4-5 starts before relegated to garbage time.

[FVBrewerFan]

I just don't believe a small market team can dump $12MM without at least trying to get something out of it.

 

I will be disappointed if they let Suppan suck for more than 4-5 starts before relegated to garbage time.

On that, we agree. I will be the first one shouting if he gets more than 3 suckish starts.

 

[joepepsi]

We better hope Suppan is great 'cause it looks like Davis ain't gonna cut it.....

[Klements Bratwurst]

"On that, we agree. I will be the first one shouting if he gets more than 3 suckish starts."

 

I don't think we can afford 3 more suckish starts, we already have had two terrible ones from Doug Davis!!! Ugh.... Our pitching has been terrible in the early going.....and Suppan is coming soon!!!! Yipee!!!

[Patrick425]

I must have missed this somewhere, but Suppan is starting game 3 of the current series against the Cubs?!? Why Macha..Why? You got a day off tomorrow! Yes, let's save Gallardo for the non-division rival Nationals.

[FVBrewerFan]

Now that makes zero sense.

[paul253]

This entire situation doesn't make any sense. Villanueva doesn't deserve to be sent down. Narveson doesn't deserve to be in the bullpen. Suppan doesn't deserve to be in the rotation. So what does Macha and Co. do? Narveson in the bullpen. Suppan in the rotation. And Villanueva is likely to get sent down.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I've got money on Vargas being DFA'd.

[drezdn]

I wonder if they'll send Vargas to the DL instead. They were talking about Vargas pitching injured on the FSN broadcast, and it would allow them to prolong the decision even longer.

[bork]

Any other options besides Villy going down in two days?

I know it's crazy, but Gomez gets optioned and they keep 13 pitchers for a while, given the poor starting pitching.

 

[BrewCrewForever]

Any other options besides Villy going down in two days?

I know it's crazy, but Gomez gets optioned and they keep 13 pitchers for a while, given the poor starting pitching.

If he has options left it wouldn't surprise me. They have Edmonds and Gerut they could make it without an extra bench guy for a bit. But I think with all I have heard that they will put Vargas on the DL for now.

[trwi7]

They could probably get away with a short bench as well since Inglett can play infield and outfield.

[DHonks]

Stetter maybe. He has options left. I would hate to see that though since then we would be using Narveson or Parra as a LOOGY. Of course it doesn't seem like Macha like Villly or Parra much considering Parra has only pitched once and Villy got pulled after 2 hitters in the middle of an inning so that Hawkins could be brought in for one batter.

Logan, Stetter does not have options left. That's why he made the club last year or would have been put on waivers.