Rotation Battle 2.0 -- Latest: Suppan Named 5th Starter

[endaround]

The idea that Suppan will suddenly have trade value after 3-4 starts is foolish. Let's assume you're a GM who has been in a coma for the last 24 months and that you have stats sites blocked by your IP, even then the fact that the Brewers who are trying to compete for a playoff spot are offering up this "solid" pitcher for trade should be a sign he stinks.

[bylo tesi me]

If releasing Suppan wasn't an option, I think I'd prefer he start now rather than be available later this season as a replacement for an injured or struggling starter. At least this way he can maybe give the team a few average starts before his age/declining skills catch up to him. My big fear is if he were to be hidden in the pen for the first few months then replace someone, say in August, he might pitch well enough that the Brewers might actually consider picking up his option for 2011. I know, the thought sounds ridiculous, considering how much he stands to make next season, but then I never thought he would pitch for the Brewers this season after the year he had last year.

[prophet]

It was probably mentioned before, but the thing I hate is when front office/management tells the fans that is an "open competition" for two roster spots. Why do they think fans can't handle it if they just say what they really mean? "We're going to give Suppan the fifth spot no matter what happens and how poorly he pitches. They're is absolutely nothing, any other pitcher can do to take this spot, no matter how good they pitch." They should have just told fans that in the beginning, instead of wasting our time by letting us think that a battle for rotation spots actually exists.

[JohnBriggs12]

Tom Skilling's long range forecast for Suppan's start in Chicago: Windy and warm, near record high of 84.

 

I would advise anyone strolling on Waveland or Sheffield while Suppan is throwing to wear protective head gear. If that forecast holds true, he may not last 3 innings.

[prophet]

By the way, when Suppan comes back, did they announce who was getting sent down? I'm assuming Villanueva since i believe he has options. If it's Parra or Narveson, I would assume they would get claimed. Can't see a young, cheap starter getting past the Nationals on the waiver wire.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm wondering if the snowy weather up here in Appleton is gonna ruin the plans for Soup's rehab start tomorrow.

What of Manny Parra now? If Suppan does just enough to keep a job all year and the other guys stay healthy, doesn't what little value Parra had coming off such a poor year in 09 reallly erode to virtually nothing anyway? It seems Macha trusts Narveson enough to use him on a fairly consistent basis, so that's less of a worry but this role for Parra might just derail a career. Maybe the solution is to trade Parra if there's someone out there interested.

But what are the chances the entire rotation stays healthy? It's also possible Davis or Bush get removed from the rotation based on performance in favor of Bush. Any way you slice it, I think the odds are pretty strong that one way or another Parra will be in the rotation- and probably sooner rather than later.

 

 

[JohnBriggs12]

"But what are the chances the entire rotation stays healthy?"

 

Better than you think. Except for cancer treatments, Davis hasn't missed a start in 6 seasons. Bush's only missed starts the last 4 years were due to a freakish line drive hitting him in the arm. Suppan's had a couple minor things pop up in the last 2 years, but he's known for durability if nothing else.

 

Neither Wolf or Gallardo missed a start in 2009 either. But really if either of those guys go down for more than a few starts, doesn't the season go down the drain with or without Parra?

 

Given they have around $8.5 million invested in Bush and Davis this year, it will take a lot of bad pitching to set either of those guys down for performance issues.

[And That]

I forget what the statistic is exactly, but something like 1 team in the past 10 years got through the season with only 5 starters. The odds of the Brewers being the second team are extremely long. We'll more than likely see both Narveson and Parra in the rotation at some point. People, especially people who are pitchers, get hurt.

[FVBrewerFan]

Ok, with that logic shouldn't it take a lot of bad pitching to set Suppan down? Now, I don't think it SHOULD take that to cut him. If he has too long a leash, I will be right with you guys. For example, if he is horrible his first two starts back, I would cut him loose. Two strikes and he's out.

[TheCrew07]

We would have to lose 2 starting pitchers for Parra to make it into the rotation, it appears that he's slotted as the long man right man. How long is that going to take to happen? What if it doesn't happen? I think many people are overreacting somewhat to the "we'll need 8 or 9 starting pitchers" idea. We won't need that many to make 20 starts, some of those guys are going to get 2 or 3 starts and go away. The 25 man roster is not a place where you store just in case type depth, that's what the AAA roster is for. I don't care who you are there is no relief pitcher that is going to be stretched out enough to just jump into the rotation, nor does bullpen work adequately simulate game conditions for Parra. He knows how to pitch, he's just doesn't assert himself on the mound.

 

I thought Peterson said something pretty interesting, he was talking about pitchers and their identity. He listed guys like Sabathia and Santana who everyone knows what they pitch... FB, SLider, CB... or FB, Cutter, CH.... you get the idea. Then he asked... who's Manny Parra? He's just a guy with a great arm and 6 pitches, he needs to figure out an identity and narrow his focus. Sabathia pretty much said the exact same thing about Parra before he left, that he would be better off concentrating on his 3 best pitches.

[RockCoCougars]

Finally, Macha is taking the heat but none of know if this move was dictated (or at least suggested) by Melvin and/or Mark A. Those things are almost always denied by the parties involved, yet we're not naive enough to believe that doesn't go on in pro sports.

I'll agree with you here. This move has clearly been dictated by Attanasio, no doubt in my mind. For as much as Macha is skewered around here (including by me), he's not stupid enough to make this decision. I found it funny that Suppan was the first player that Attanasio mentioned on the broadcast Monday- either Suppan is one of Mark's 'pets' or he has some pictures or something. At any rate, here' s my prediction for Soup: 3 or 4 starts with an ERA over 7 and a WHIP over 2, then the neck 'flares up' again- or actually, on second thought, it has been 'bothering him' all along- hence the poor performance.

[logan82]

As for people bashing Brewerpride, you have a post 4 posts in front of him where someone is going to bet against the Brewers. Post 265 wants Suppan to give up 20 runs in his first inning (not in the minors, on April 15th).

I see them now. It is still no reason to question the intelligence of the entire board. Issue should have been taken with those specific posts.

 

I was hoping Narveson would get the 5th spot, but I understand the move.

Nobody wanted Narveson when he was released last year. Narveson went

on to do well, but he doesn't have a significant history of success, and

Suppan was better than Parra last year.

Suppan may have been better than Parra last year but Parra was much better than Suppan the year before. Going on one year is a bad idea.

 

The problem I have is that Suppan has no upside. At best we can expect a 5+ ERA and probably much closer to 5.50. With Parra and Narveson there is at least the potential to have a low 4 ERA.

[FVBrewerFan]

The problem I have is that Suppan has no upside. At best we can expect a 5+ ERA and probably much closer to 5.50. With Parra and Narveson there is at least the potential to have a low 4 ERA.

Well, Soup has gone 4.62/4.96/5.29 the past 3 years. You can look at that two ways. Trend would suggest a 5.50 ERA. But looking at it another way, he could return to a 4.80 ish ERA. Parra has been worse than that, of course. Yes, Parra has potential, but I don't think he's entitled to 30 starts this year.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

The problem with Suppan goes beyond guesstimating stats based on his past performance. His stuff is so nondescript now that it's hard to believe he will be any better at getting hitters out than he was last season. Beyond that, when you have not one, but two pitchers who've shown both the ability to get MLB hitters out as effectively as Soup, and they both have room to grow, keeping the #5 SP spot reserved for the worst of the three options is just a bad decision. Honestly the debate should be about whether Narveson or Parra is the #5, not that Jeff Suppan somehow is owed this opportunity for being a Proven Gritty Veteran ®

[logan82]

FVBrewerFan wrote:

Well, Soup has gone 4.62/4.96/5.29 the past 3 years. You can look at that two ways. Trend would suggest a 5.50 ERA. But looking at it another way, he could return to a 4.80 ish ERA. Parra has been worse than that, of course. Yes, Parra has potential, but I don't think he's entitled to 30 starts this year.

Parra also had a 4.39 ERA just the previous year. It was as low as 4.03 before his last couple starts where he seemed to hit a wall just like more than a few posters predicted before the year started. Why does that year constantly get ignored? He was head and shoulders better than Suppan that year. Let's stop using only one year to look at Parra just because it supports the argument for Suppan. That is what Macha seems to be doing and I can excuse that to some extent since he has only been here for a year. I see no reason for any Brewers fan who has followed the team for more than a year to keep ignoring 2008. If Peterson is as good as advertised, he should be able to find some way to get Parra back into the low 4's for ERA.

[TheCrew07]

It's no so much about entitling Parra to 30 starts, the valid question JB12 brought up is how do we continue to delevop Parra if he's not regularly pitching in games? If he is to be any part of the teams future he has to keep playing so he hopefully develops into something useful. It's the same concept as having Gamel ride the bench... once they stop playing, they stop progressing. The upside in Gamel's case was that he could still work on his defense when he wasn't playing, but what is Parra going to do if he doesn't pitch? I realize only 3 games have passed and I'd be willing to give Macha the benefit of the doubt if I had any confidence in him at all as a manager, but I don't.

 

I completely understand the whole concept of the most productive players should get the playing time, that's not what I'm arguing at all. They simply can't keep Parra on the MLB roster for fear that another team will claim him and then pitch him as little as possible, his growth and development as a player will stop in my opinion as I don't believe his problems are physical in nature. Maybe Manny would be a better reliever as he wouldn't have to concern himself with pitching multiple times through a lineup, I'm open to the idea even though we desperately need starting pitching next season. Who knows, maybe he could spring board success in a relief role this season into a quality career as a starting pitching going forward.

 

He needs to find confidence and to be more agressive if he's going to help the Brewers, he'll get neither being the last reliever off the bench, that's a not position you develop talent from, it is the position in the bullpen for players on the way out.

[Fatter than Joey]

I forget what the statistic is exactly, but something like 1 team in the past 10 years got through the season with only 5 starters.

 

Only 2 teams since 1940 -- A 1960s Dodgers team, with Sutton/Koufax/Drysdale/Osteen and the 2003 Mariners...

[RockCoCougars]

As for people bashing Brewerpride, you have a post 4 posts in front of him where someone is going to bet against the Brewers. Post 265 wants Suppan to give up 20 runs in his first inning (not in the minors, on April 15th).

I was the poster who will bet against the Brewers when Soup starts. Would you bet on them? Anyone who's seen Suppan throw for the past year should realize that he can't get anyone out anymore with the 'stuff' that he has. He throws a straight as a string 87 mph (on a good day) fastball, and has control issues with his off speed pitches. He might be able to put together a 'decent 'start or two here and there, but he's not going to be effective over the course of a season- he's done. The Brewers should get past the politics at play and send him on his way. In my opinion, stubbornly starting Suppan for whatever reason shows me that the team is not totally committed to winning. If that's the case, then I don't really feel bad laying a wager against them.

[kramnoj]

I see no reason for any Brewers fan who has followed the team for more than a year to keep ignoring 2008.

 

Who is ignoring 2008? I said I understand the Brewers move, I certainly didn't say I support it. While one year is only one year, sabermetrics shows that the most recent year should be weighted the heaviest. That works for the masses, but for the individual, the team has to make the tough call. I don't think the Brewers made the best choice, but I can see why they made it, and I don't think it is nearly as certain as others that payroll was a major factor.

[logan82]

I forget what the statistic is exactly, but something like 1 team in the past 10 years got through the season with only 5 starters.

 

Only 2 teams since 1940 -- A 1960s Dodgers team, with Sutton/Koufax/Drysdale/Osteen and the 2003 Mariners...

I think every team generally has to cover 20+ starts with a 6th+ stater every year as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

... What is Parra going to do if he doesn't pitch? I realize only 3 games have passed and I'd be willing to give Macha the benefit of the doubt if I had any confidence in him at all as a manager, but I don't.

This is the fly in the ointment for me, as well. Macha is going to do what he always does -- favor the players that he 'trusts'. For some reason, Jeff Suppan is one of these guys. It's a disappointment to me that Melvin isn't more proactive about situations like this (or Gamel's)

[kramnoj]

I was the poster who will bet against the Brewers when Soup starts. Would you bet on them?

 

Those are two different things. I'm not confident enough in any one start to bet on Suppan, but I wouldn't actively choose to make money on the team that I root for to lose. You are talking about choosing to do so, and that is revealing of who you are.

 

Anyone who's seen Suppan throw for the past year should realize that he can't get anyone out anymore with the 'stuff' that he has.

 

You repeat this, but I notice you haven't responded to the 6-1 stretch the Brewers had with Suppan on the mound last spring.

[logan82]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

Macha is going to do what he always does -- favor the players that he 'trusts'. For some reason, Jeff Suppan is one of these guys. It's a disappointment to me that Melvin isn't more proactive about situations like this (or Gamel's)

I think you have to let your guy do his thing when you hire a manager. I just wish Melvin would quit giving the kid sharp things to play with.

[TooLiveBrew]

Braden Looper went 14-7 last year, which has nothing to do with how terribly he pitched.

[sgtcluels]

6 - 1 in spring? I assume you ignore his first two starts and then counter the next 7 games to get the 6. He also was no decisions in 3 of those, and only went deeper then the 6th once. (6/6/6.1/5.2/7/5). You also ignored his first two games where he went a whopping 4IP and 3.2IP. If Suppan had any value it would be that he limits damage and eats innings, he doesn't do either any more.

 

Wins don't mean that much. It's a nice thing to be proud of, but isn't a 1:1 correlation. Luck is a pretty big factor (If your offense can bail you out luck)