Rotation Battle 2.0 -- Latest: Suppan Named 5th Starter

[Mass Haas]

It's an important topic, please keep it focused and on the task at hand. The prior thread had gotten unwieldy and hard to follow, time to refresh.

 

The previous thread had reached over 250 posts, there's still seven starters in the big picture, so let the discussion continue.

[CheezWizHed]

Somehow I jumped into the middle of all that and was wondering how Sabathia got added to our rotation battle... only to be disappointed that CC meant Craig Counsel... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

So would it seem that Parra pitching in MiLB games would indicate he has a spot? Or has everyone been evenly taking their turns? (Thinking that pitching the MiLB games that they don't need to see him pitch against MLB hitters...)

[Milltownhooker]

Well Narveson vs Parra. Which should go to the pen. Parra has been more effective in his career out of the pen. While lately Narveson has shown to be a better starter than Parra & a few other brewer rotation locks.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I really want to see Narveson become one of the five starters. This organization still doesn't have the guts to push Suppan out of the rotation though.

[amt2138]

Does anybody else see it as encouraging that they moved Parra and Suppan to pitching on the same day? That would be the spot that is lined up for the 5th starter. Maybe Suppan isn't assured of a rotation spot after all?

[TheCrew07]

endaround wrote:

You option down Villaneuva who is buried

on the bullpen depth chart as it is. Have Narveson or Parra pick up his

innings and make Suppan the long relief guy(or vice versa). This also

allows for Villaneuva to stretch out and start for Nashville helping

the overall starting depth this year and in the future.

I'm not following you here... somehow a guy that can't win an outright BP spot is going to provide solid rotation depth now and in the future? How exactly? He's not good enough to win a bullpen job for goodness sake. He shouldn't be part of the future of the rotation, he shouldn't be considered depth for the rotation, and if he is we're in serious trouble. Rotation depth in the future will come from true prospects at AA and AAA, not from bullpen types. If Narveson ends up in the pen and eventually ends up in the rotation as an injury/ineffective replacement then our 7th option should be Butler from AAA. If we end up needing to go past him then I'd take whomever is currently performing the best between AAA and AA with a preference towards players already on the 40 man. I happen to like Villy, but he's right there with Suppan and Bush velocity wise, he's a RH control pitcher through and through and we'll have much more talented players coming down the pipeline. I'm looking to move away from that type of pitchability pitcher, not find ways to slot more into the rotation.

 

I'll be absolutely livid if we have a prospect like Arnett tearing up AA and team would go with someone like Villy instead of just plucking Arnett and seeing how he fares. It's not about being rushed, it's about getting the most the team can out of it's injury replacements. I would much rather take a shot with talented prospect who's already on the 40 man and using options than revisit past experiments. The pitching between Huntsville and WI is our future in the rotation, and our youngsters are probably going to end up with most of the bullpen slots as well.

 

The "future" is the young arms in the system, it's certainly not anyone out of the bullpen.

[Hammer]

I'm not following you here... somehow a guy that can't win an outright BP spot is going to provide solid rotation depth now and in the future? How exactly? He's not good enough to win a bullpen job for goodness sake. He shouldn't be part of the future of the rotation, he shouldn't be considered depth for the rotation, and if he is we're in serious trouble. Rotation depth in the future will come from true prospects at AA and AAA, not from bullpen types. If Narveson ends up in the pen and eventually ends up in the rotation as an injury/ineffective replacement then our 7th option should be Butler from AAA. If we end up needing to go past him then I'd take whomever is currently performing the best between AAA and AA with a preference towards players already on the 40 man. I happen to like Villy, but he's right there with Suppan and Bush velocity wise, he's a RH control pitcher through and through and we'll have much more talented players coming down the pipeline. I'm looking to move away from that type of pitchability pitcher, not find ways to slot more into the rotation.

I'll be absolutely livid if we have a prospect like Arnett tearing up AA and team would go with someone like Villy instead of just plucking Arnett and seeing how he fares. It's not about being rushed, it's about getting the most the team can out of it's injury replacements. I would much rather take a shot with talented prospect who's already on the 40 man and using options than revisit past experiments. The pitching between Huntsville and WI is our future in the rotation, and our youngsters are probably going to end up with most of the bullpen slots as well.

 

The "future" is the young arms in the system, it's certainly not anyone out of the bullpen.

Isn't an emergency starter from AAA probably your 7th or 8th best option already? Not many teams out there go 7 or 8 deep as quality or star potential pitchers. I see nothing wrong with Villy being that emergency option now and in the future. I don't think that endaround was suggesting that he has a bright future as a possible starter but as an emergency guy. With as much experience as he has he fits pretty well in that role.

[bork]

amt2138]Does anybody else see it as encouraging that they moved Parra and Suppan to pitching on the same day? That would be the spot that is lined up for the 5th starter. Maybe Suppan isn't assured of a rotation spot after all?

They could still shuffle things around with the day off tomorrow, but currently it appears that Bush is lined up with the off day on April 8th. Suppan and Parra would be lined up with April 9th. That would be the 4th spot. Then the 5th starter isn't needed until April 24th. The 4th starter would get 4 starts, while the other three end up in the pen. Then they pick one as the 5th starter on the 24th. So really, we may not know who the 5th starter is for another month. The big question now is who becomes the 4th starter.

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

The big question now is who becomes the 4th starter.

It could be any of the 4 yet, whoever pitches next Tuesday is the guy if its not announced before hand. That person would then pitch a sim game on Sunday and be ready on Friday after the day off. My money is on Bush with the other 3 in the pen and Villy sent to AAA.

 

 

[PrinceEatMeat]

They could still shuffle things around with the day off tomorrow, but currently it appears that Bush is lined up with the off day on April 8th. Suppan and Parra would be lined up with April 9th. That would be the 4th spot. Then the 5th starter isn't needed until April 24th. The 4th starter would get 4 starts, while the other three end up in the pen. Then they pick one as the 5th starter on the 24th. So really, we may not know who the 5th starter is for another month. The big question now is who becomes the 4th starter.

Actually, the 5th starter is needed on April 18th.

[brewmann04]

just have to think Bush and Naverson get the 4th and 5th spot.I can't believe Macha will give Suppan a spot.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I personally think that Bush is being lined up for the 4th spot, and either Parra or Suppan will get the 5 spot. With Narveson being primarily in the pen, but obviously there as insurance should any of those 3 struggle in the rotation.

[brewmann04]

I can live with Parra but not Suppan as our 5th guy.

[thunderbat30]

Assuming a bullpen/starting staff of 12.

Bullpen = Hoffman, Coffey, Hawkins, Vargas & Stetter.

Starters = Gallardo, Wolf, Davis & Bush.

Parra, Soup & Narveson will make the team in some fashion and Villy will be in AAA. I don't think the Brewers' brass are idiots. They know Soup's put them between a rock and a hard place with brutal numbers, shaky performance and a 12 mil + price tag. Parra is inconsistent, has head issues but has the talent to be the best of the three. Narveson has pitched well and is intriguing but is he a fart in the wind? With so little room for error I would bet the thoughts are just like the forum -- everyone has an opinion and all over the place. The question is who has the right one?

Safe bet, keep them all and figure it out later.

[TheCrew07]

Isn't an emergency starter from AAA probably your 7th or 8th best option already? Not many teams out there go 7 or 8 deep as quality or star potential pitchers. I see nothing wrong with Villy being that emergency option now and in the future. I don't think that endaround was suggesting that he has a bright future as a possible starter but as an emergency guy. With as much experience as he has he fits pretty well in that role.

How does Villy fit well into that role? If converting back to a starter means hindering the development of a player like Chris Cody who's control type lefty then where exactly is the value in the move? Where is the net gain? This isn't the pitcher that was confident and successful in 2008, this is the pitcher that struggled mightily at times during 2009 who if he's sent down didn't pitch well enough to earn a bullpen spot out of Spring Training.

 

Why is Villy a better option than a Butler, Rivas, Rogers, Bowman, Periard... whomever? Just about every starting pitcher we'll have between AA and AAA has more physical talent and why does Carlos' MLB experience make him a better option for 2 to 4 spot starts? Also, why does it have to be an "emergency"? Our young pitchers are inching closer every day, emergency to me means there no other viable alternatives from MLB to AA. An emergency spot start to me would be something unexpected, something along the lines of the SP for that day getting food posioning at lunch and the organization having no time to make a move prior to game time. Otherwise, why not fly in one of the youngsters? We'll have plenty of talented young arms to choose from as we move forward. From a pitching development standpoint, I love the idea of bringing up a young pitcher for just a couple of starts to get his feet wet and then sending him back. It's much easier to manage from a roster standpoint, no 40 man moves are necessary, the young pitcher gets some valuable experience, and it's easy enough to set things back the way were prior to an injury once the MLB pitcher is ready to return.

 

In 2011 it gets even better, the entire AA starting rotation from this season will be in AAA or MLB and the AA rotation will be stacked again. There will be no reason to keep "depth" players around anymore. Villy isn't part of the future of the rotation, so shipping him off to Nashville to work as starting pitcher doesn't make sense, it's like what they did with Dillard last season when Dillard had no future in the rotation, it's a waste of time and a rotation slot at AAA. There's no room for him to work as a starting pitcher anywhere in the entire organization for that matter, let alone AAA. Butler pitched in AAA last season, if he continues to progress he'll be "ready" for a shot and Butler getting an injury call would be the natural progression of his career, much like if McGehee went down and Gamel came up. Would we consider that 3B scenario an emergency?

 

So I guess I ask again looking ahead, where is Villy's future as starting pitcher with this organization? Keep in mind that I've always been on high on Villy because he just always got results, but if he's going to make it in Milwaukee, it's going to be as a reliever, especially going forward as the young pitchers push up towards MLB.

[yount19.u]

So I guess I ask again looking ahead, where is Villy's future as starting pitcher with this organization? Keep in mind that I've always been on high on Villy because he just always got results, but if he's going to make it in Milwaukee, it's going to be as a reliever, especially going forward as the young pitchers push up towards MLB.

I don't want to see Villaneuva go the way of Seth McClung. When kept strictly in the role of reliever, I think CV's done a nice job. It's when the team starts to "stretch him out" and give him spot starts that things start to get ugly. If he gets sent to AAA, I would hope he could stay in the bullpen so he's ready to go when Suppan gets sent down or cut (wishful thinking).

 

If Suppan is no longer in the rotation or on the team, I would like to see some of the young guns used in the emergency starter role as well. The team would know pretty quickly what they had, and maybe that call up could turn permanent if they catch lightening in a bottle with someone.

[logan82]

TH has the roster all lined up how he thinks it will shake out. I threw up a little in my mouth when I read this part. I completely disagree the bolded part should make any difference. Of Suppan and Bush whoever ends up in the bullpen is likely to get the "I pitch once a week" job. I think Bush is a pitcher in the 4.25-5.00 ERA range and Suppan in the 5.00-5.50 ERA range. In my opinion Suppan over Bush in the rotation to start the season makes any bad decision Yost made look rather small in comparison.

I put Bush and Narveson in the bullpen because they have some

experience out of the pen and seem to have the bounce-back arms to do

it. Suppan and Parra have been starters. I put Suppan in the No. 4 spot

because I doubt that manager Ken Macha would want three lefties in a row

by having Parra there. Thing is, Macha said he won't need a No. 5

starter until a few weeks into the season.

[JohnBriggs12]

With regards to Villanueva, he was a starter in the minors. In AAA, at age 22-23, he was 7-1 with a 2.77 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. None of the starters penciled in there this year have those credentials. If one did, we'd all be calling for him to be in the Brewer rotation. Speaking of which as a major league starter, he's 6-12 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. That ERA and WHIP are better than Parra and Villanueva's a year younger. With the lack of prospects at the AAA level, if you're going to send him down, why not see if he regains his form as a starter? He's only 26. You can always just put him back in the Brewer pen if he's needed there.

 

As for TH's breakdown, I'm with logan3825. How can anyone justify a rotation spot or a roster for Suppan? What if he gets hammered in his last 2 spring starts? They better plan to start Suppan only on the road, because it will get ugly.

[Ennder]

Seems like just a guess by TH more than anything though. Just doesn't seem likely they would move Parra's start the way they did and keep stretching Bush out if they were going to just dump him into the bullpen. Really feels like Parra and Suppan are fighting for the 5th spot from what Macha has actually said and done.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm starting to think Rick Peterson's ego is playing into this. Any rational baseball fan looks at Suppan at age 35 and realizes he's had a pretty good career, but he's clearly past his peak (which wasn't all that high) and the downward trend is almost certain to continue.

 

There's been an awful lot of ballyhoo about Peterson since he took the job. I believe he's telling Macha and Melvin that he can "fix" Suppan and because Macha has faith in Peterson and Melvin wants to improve the legacy of what was a bad signing, both are listening.. Now Peterson may have fine pitching coach credentials, but if you're telling me a guy like Suppan with 396 major league starts and 2,410 major league innings is going to learn any secret formula from a pitching coach who in his playing career had 4 games above A ball, I'm not buying it. Suppan is done. Hoping he's not because he's costing you a lot is foolish.

[endaround]

So we should allow this seaon's fortunes depend upon a bunch of guys who haven't had any serious work above high A? Yes there is Butler who is still injured. Right now the guy most likely set to step in is Estrada. And the point about Villanueva isn't so much that he can be a starter just that he has a role as the bullpen gets thinned out going forward. But counting on a bunch of guys to take AA by storm and stay healthy is bad planning for this season and for next year.

[sheethead]

I guess TH and I share the same bias.

[RobDeer 45]

Thunderbat30 wrote: Safe bet, keep them all and figure it out later.

Well put. I'm totally in this boat! I think Soup and Narv go to the pen and can be there for the what if. I guess either way whoever they pick to be the "starting five" is not a big deal as long as they are man enough to admidt a mistake early if things aren't working out. I know every game counts but giving a guy a chance for 2-3 starts won't make or break the season.

 

JohnBriggs12 - How did you come up with the Rick Peterson thing? Do you have anything to back that up or just throwing it out there? You are making a lot of assumptions about Peterson that come across as very critical and if it's all based on guessing I don't think it's fair. Now there is a chance he thinks he can fix him but I doubt he has that much pull. I think if anything it's coming from higher up because of the money issue attached with Soup.

 

 

[Milltownhooker]

I have the feeling Suppan will be a non-factor around early April just my 2 cents.

[MadScientist]

There was some question on the previous thread about the problem of keeping two long relievers fresh. In some ways I think it might be easier to do with 2 than with 1. With 1, you don't want to give him innings one day then really need him the next, so you don't use him unless you really need to. With 2, you can give one long reliever 3-4 innings when the starter goes 5-6 and not worry because the next day or two the other guy will be ready. On the third day, that other pitcher can go 3-4 innings. This way both pitcher can get regular work, stay sharp, and the 1 inning guys will not get burned out early in the year when the starters often don't come close to sniffing the 7th.

 

Also if the long relievers are regularly getting 3 innings, they should be able to get to 5-6 if they need to start, without more stretching out. The only concern with this plan is that the long relievers need to get through the 3-4 innings without damage, but since they were starters, and don't have to go through the lineup more than twice, they can throw every pitch they have to get through, not saving things for a third time around. There will be some cases where these pitchers get taken out for pinch hitters, but hopefully the offense has scored enough that they can be left in.