Good year for big college pitchers

[colbyjack]

Last year quite a bit was made of the fact that the Brewers took two well-built college arms in last year's draft, although you really could only make that argument by looking at the profiles of two of their top three picks: The 6-foot-5, 230-pound Eric Arnett and the 6-foot-6, 225-pound Kyle Heckathorn. If you really wanted to, you could use the same reasoning to argue that the Brewers also are leaning towards sub-6-foot outfielders after taking Kentrail Davis and Max Walla with their second and fourth overall picks.

This year the talent definitely favors big, college arms, and the development of a few pitchers once considered potential first-round picks, including North Carolina's Matt Harvey and Texas A&M's Barrett Loux, has given the top of the draft a few more power arms to choose from.

Here are a few quick profiles of some of the top, big-bodied college pitchers that could go in the first round. I have not included LSU ace Anthony Ranaudo (6-foot-7, 230-pounds) because he has been injured, and even if he does fall to the Brewers pick, I don't expect them to take the Boras client who likely will command money comparable to what the first or second overall pick should get. I also haven't included Florida Gulf Coast LHP Chris Sale, who may be tall (6-foot-5), but isn't exactly big (175 pounds), who also is unikely to fall..

Drew Pomeranz - LHP - 6'5", 230 - Ole Miss

3-0, 1.23 ERA, 5 games (all starts), 29.1 IP, 18 H, 49 K, 9 BB

Pomeranz has started the year strong, with a tough pre-conference schedule that included appearances against Tulane and Louisville. He has a fastball that can touch 95 and sits in the low-90s, and a good although inconsistent curveball. He needs to work on commanding the strike zone better, as he's averaging just over 100 pitchers per appearance but is averaging less than six innings per. This probably will be a moot point, as he is unlikely to make it to the Brewers pick. He pitched quite well for Team USA last summer, although he has a lot of innings on his arm already having been inserted as a weekend starter upon beginning his college career.

Brandon Workman - RHP - 6'5", 220 - Texas

3-1, 2.94 ERA, 5 games (all starts), 33.2 IP, 33 H, 33 K, 8 BB

Workman has one of the better power one-two punches available for this year's draft, with a power curveball similar to the one Ben Sheets possesses. His fastball sits in the low-90s and can touch the mid-90s. The pitch is a little on the straight side, and he hasn't had to throw a changeup much during his college career. While he can be unhittable when he's on (and he did throw a no-hitter last spring), he can also be quite hittable when he's not. Workman has been better during his two summer stints on the Cape than he has during his two years at Texas, where he has bounced between the bullpen and the starting rotation.

Deck McGuire - RHP - 6'6", 225 - Georgia Tech

McGuire has enjoyed a very successful career at GT, and was named the ACC pitcher of the year last season as a sophomore. He throws four good pitches, although I have yet to hear of an appearance where all four are working at the same time. I saw him pitch last year in the ACC tourney and he was 92-94 with his fastball with a very good, hard breaking curveball. He ran out of gas around the 5th and 6th innings, although he is quite accustomed to working deeper than that. As nice as his size looks as listed, he is a rather ordinary looking athlete and he may have already reached his potential. He's off to another good start this year, and as of right now I doubt he makes it to 14.

Matt Harvey - RHP - 6'4", 225 - North Carolina

Like Workman, Harvey was a highly touted, early pick coming out of high school that fell a little in the draft and decided to head to college. He had a decent freshman year but really regressed as a sophomore. His stuff has always been good, but his mechanics have come into question as well in which some scouts wondered what happened to the electric pitcher they saw in pitcher, in which some debated who was better between he and Rick Porcello. His mechanics have been tweaked this year and he's back on track, although he is going to need to prove on a weekly basis that his command and overall control are indeed improved for good. His velocity is back as well, pitching in the 93-97 range with a killer slider.

Jesse Hahn - RHP - 6'5", 200 - Virginia Tech

4-1, 1.34 ERA, 5 games (all starts), 33.2 IP, 27 H, 29 K, 6 BB

Harvey and Hahn were teammates in high school, and now offer two of the more lively arms available for this year's draft. Hahn hasn't been used much as a starter prior to this year as he has struggled with control, and has been unable to polish his secondary stuff. He has tightened up his breaking ball and stretch out his arm, and is now throwing in the low-90s deep into ballgames with the ability to reach the upper 90s in shorter stints. His control has been impressive this year, with only six walks in 33.2 innings, although he isn't blowing batters away (29 strikeouts) like his stuff may lead you to believe.

Sammy Solis - LHP - 6'5", 230 - San Diego

3-1, 2.51 ERA, 5 games (all starts), 28.2 IP, 25 H, 30 K, 9 BB

Solis missed most of the 2009 season after straining his lower back while lifting weights. He is fully healthy and back pitching at full strength. His former pitching coach, Eric Valenzuela, who is now at San Diego State, told me earlier this spring that Solis really reminds him of current San Diego Padre Aaron Poreda. Solis pitches comfortably in the low-90s and can touch 95. He has three good pitches, although it's rare that all three are working for him at the same time. As a big lefty, comparisons to former Torero Brian Matusz are inevitable, but Solis doesn't have the same repertoire and is more of a pure, power pitcher.

Kyle Blair - RHP - 6'4", 220 - San Diego

2-1, 3.99 ERA, 5 games (all starts), 29.1 IP, 25 H, 36 K, 13 BB

Blair, like Workman, has looked and performed a lot better during the summer wood bat leagues, including last summer in which he was one of the Cape's better arms. He has good size, but is a little on the soft side, and while he can pitch in the low-90s with the ability to touch the mid-90s, he falls in love with his breaking ball way more than he should. He's at his best spotting his fastball and then putting batters away with his slurve. His control seems to be regressing as well, as he is walking far too many batters over the last calendar year.

Barrett Loux - RHP - 6'5", 220 - Texas A&M

3-1, 1.29 ERA, 5 games (all starts), 28 IP, 19 H, 47 K, 8 BB

After Loux's freshman year, many expected him to be a first-round pick for this year's draft. His sophomore season didn't go as well, as he entered the spring as one of the Aggies' weekend starters and struggled somewhat. The entire team struggled in fact, as BA had them as the #1 college team to open the 2009 season. Loux is back and throwing very well this year, as he sits in the low-90s and maintains his velocity very well. He still needs to hone his breaking stuff (he throws both a curveball and a slider) and his changeup, but he can dominate a game with his fastball alone.

Georgia Tech closer Kevin Jacob is also a big-bodied RHP (6-foot-6, 235-pounds), and LHP James Paxton (6-foot-4, 215-pounds) would also fit into this discussion if he hadn't left Kentucky after the NCAA had withheld him from competition for not filling out their questionnaire regarding his relationship with his agent (Scott Boras).

The talent this year definitely favors pitching, both among the college and prep ranks, and after last year, I would expect the Brewers eventual pick to be among the name listed above.

[Tedaldtada]

Thanks Colby! I'll keep my eye on these guys.

[colbyjack]

Not a big college pitcher, but Ohio State's Alex Wimmers may very be on the Brewers radar for their first-round pick, the 14th overall selection. He's far from fellow Big Ten pitcher, the towering Eric Arnett, from a year ago, but Wimmers was named the conference's pitcher of the year last season as a sophomore, not Arnett. Thomas Donovan recently took some video of Wimmers that I uploaded, and also provided a scouting report.

Just to familiarize yourself with Donovan's efforts, be sure to check out http://www.5tooltalk.com/draftnotes3-30-10.html for his report on Illinois prep (Minooka) RHP Michael Foltynewicz (his nickname is Folty for those that don't wish to learn how to spell, or pronounce, his name). I personally think Folty makes a lot of sense for the Brewers at #14 (and yes, I do believe he could put his name in the conversation for their pick there come draft day) given some of the Brewers preferences. Obviously he's not a college pitcher, but he is extremely athletic (he is also a very good hitter), his arm is relatively fresh, he has great size, stuff and he continues to get better. He's a Texas recruit, and if he doesn't sign early he very well may be in the "big college pitcher" discussion three years from now.

[colbyjack]

I forgot to mention last night another big, college arm rising up draft boards and is receiving legit attention as a potential first-round pick, The Citadel's Asher Wojciechowski. Here's a writeup from my colleague Jeff Simpson:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker...rticle.aspx?article=2229