Following Ben Sheets [was "Sheets: 0 IP, 8 H, 9 ER on March 15th"]

[1992casey]

One of the statheads could probably offer a better answer, but I believe the NL vs. AL difference is irrelevant in the actual computation of FIP and xFIP. You'd simply expect a somewhat higher FIP/xFIP in the AL just like you'd expect a somewhat higher ERA.

[endaround]

No they don't so you could consider their FIPS about the same, but as the xFIP shows, Wolf has been very unlucky while Sheets lucky with home runs so far (especially given the types of pitchers they are). Still my point is that Sheets' ERA right now is an illusion and that if Wolf and Sheets keep pitching how they have so far for teh next 4 months Wolf will end up with the much better season.

[Ennder]

Sheets with another bad outing today. After 3 innings his ERA is up to 6.30 on the year and he has more BB than K. Are we still upset we didn't sign him? Davis has been bad but at least most of it seems to be bad luck with singles, Davis is the unluckiest pitcher in baseball on the season according to ERA-xFIP.

[Teatoe993]

He gave up 3 more in the bottom of the 4th. ERA is now 7.12.

[Funketown]

Sheets has walked more batters this season in 27 innings (14) than he did in 2006 in 106 innings (11).

 

FWIW, Rich Harden has walked 23 in 23.2 innings to go along with 22 K's. I'm much more confident that Davis will rebound than either of those two, as others have pointed out, his peripherals are actually quite good.

[TooLiveBrew]

The scarier thing, to me, is that his fastball velocity is down more than 1.5mph so far from his career average. I think the injuries have finally caught up to Benny beyond just missing time on the mound, and while it stinks the way it happened, I'm glad the Brewers didn't re-sign him.

[sheethead]

He gave up 3 HR yesterday as well. Was that the worst outing of his career?

[Thurston Fluff]

I wouldn't read to much into what sheets does this year. He's coming off an injury where it takes some time to regain his usual stuff. I would have been more surprised if he came out and was his normal old self this soon. He may take the better part of the season to regain his velocity and movement. Next year he could be cheap and more effective for what ever team takes a chance on him.

Given he's a two pitch starter he has to have two great pitches not two good ones. Maybe his pitches come back to his presurgery level maybe they don't. His days as an elite starter may be numbered but he could go the reliever route if all else fails.

What should be getting more obvious is Melvin was correct not to give him that much money.

[sheethead]

I wouldn't read to much into what sheets does this year.

 

At $10MM for one year, I bet A's fans are reading plenty into what Sheets is doing this year.

[Thurston Fluff]

They might be reading he isn't fully back yet but that was a bad idea to give him that much on the year he was coming off surgery. I don't read much into what his future is by what he does this season. If they would have gone two years 15 million I would have thought it better. Then you get one year of coming back and on of him as good as he can be. In any event for the A's it's a one year deal and all they need out of him is some semblance of ability and they can trade him at the deadline. Maybe they have to pick up some salary or don't get the return on him they hoped for but the money won't prohibit him from getting them something in return.

[sheethead]

I believe that was the motivation behind Beane signing him. He took the gamble that he would be legitimate trade bait at the deadline. He has a ways to go, but could get there with just 3 or 4 solid starts prior to the deadline.

[TooLiveBrew]

He'd have to be passed through waivers & traded after the deadline though, iirc, since he was signed as a FA

[Baldkin]

Pretty sure that they just can't be traded before June 15th of that season.

http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060410&content_id=1393174&vkey=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex

 

 

 

 

A: While it's not addressed in the Major League Rules, Section B(6) of

Article XX of the current Basic Agreement provides that a team signing a

major league free agent in the off-season may not trade him until June

15 of the following season. The player can waive the B(6) protection,

however, by consenting to a pre-June 15 trade in writing.

 

 

One player who recently waived the pre-June 15 restriction is Placido

Polanco, whom Philadelphia traded to Detroit with his permission on June

8, 2005 (for reliever Ugueth Urbina and infielder Ramon Martinez).

 

[RockCoCougars]

It seems that a lot of people are taking some glee in Sheets' performance to this point. Keep in mind however that he's only a few months removed from basically not pitching against live hitters for a year and a half. There has to be some rust, especially considering that his best pitch, the curveball is a feel pitch. I'm pretty confident that he will bounce back, and yes- I'd most certainly rather have him at $10 million than Jeff Suppan out there polluting the bullpen for $13 million.

[endaround]

It seems that a lot of people are taking some glee in Sheets' performance to this point. Keep in mind however that he's only a few months removed from basically not pitching against live hitters for a year and a half. There has to be some rust, especially considering that his best pitch, the curveball is a feel pitch. I'm pretty confident that he will bounce back, and yes- I'd most certainly rather have him at $10 million than Jeff Suppan out there polluting the bullpen for $13 million.

Well yes Suppan vs Sheets is an easy call. But its Sheets vs Wolf.

[Ennder]

I take no glee in Sheets pitching poorly, I just think people who criticized Melvin for not signing him this season are dead wrong and since everyone is so quick to pat themselves on the back and say Melvin is an idiot every time someone we didn't sign or traded has 2 good games in a row I want to make sure people see that this move probably wouldn't have worked out.

[Thurston Fluff]

I take no glee either though I don't deny being relieved it isn't our team that has to suffer through his getting back to form phase. As I sated earlier I think his current numbers are not indicative of what his future ability will end up being. Few if any pitchers come back from major elbow or shoulder surgery and do well their first year back.

[naivin]

If his velocity doesn't come back (and I have my doubts that it will), he will continue to get hammered. That big curve becomes rather irrelevant when guys can just sit on an average fast ball.

[rluzinski]

If his velocity doesn't come back (and I have my doubts that it will), he will continue to get hammered. That big curve becomes rather irrelevant when guys can just sit on an average fast ball.

So far, he's lost 1.3 MPH from 2008, according to fangraphs. Losing that in 2 years wouldn't be surprising for any pitcher. That doesn't help him, obviously, but your claim that he should be expected to get hammered because of his 91 MPH fastball is a huge assumption, IMO. His walk rate is way up, so if I had to guess, his location is more of the issue.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...yerid=710&position=P

[DHonks]

Russ, since Sheet's arm/elbow starting barking in June '08 and he pitched til September, I'm not sure it's a fair comparison

[naivin]

His walk rate is way up, so if I had to guess, his location is more of the issue.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...yerid=710&position=P

I don't disagree necessarily. I would say its both. But if guys don't have to swing at the curve ball, his fastball has to be pretty perfect. At this point, obviously it isn't. As someone esle pointed out, a two pitch starting pitcher is gonna have a real tough time if one of those pitches is just average.

[Thurston Fluff]

any loss of velocity is going to hurt a two pitch pitcher more than a three pitch pitcher. Sheets can't afford to lose any and still be effective. Either that or he'll have to work on his changeup a little more than he has.

[rluzinski]

Russ, since Sheet's arm/elbow starting barking in June '08 and he pitched til September, I'm not sure it's a fair comparison

Just follow my link. He's lost a couple of MPH over the last half decade. That doesn't appear to by the smoking gun.

 

And Sheets has gotten away with being a two pitch starting pitcher because he has always had TWO plus pitches. He throws over the top more than most pitchers, which is why he has a 12-6 curve and why his fastball rises more than it runs (relative to the average fastball). Looking at Fangraph's run values by pitch type, it looks like his curve has lost some of it's effectiveness over the years:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=710&position=P#pitchvalues

 

Obviously, one compliments the other but it's interesting nontheless.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[endaround]

This won't show is if he's over throwing his fastball and hence losing control. IE to get to 92 Sheets has to throw harder and thus has less control. Another thing with Sheets though is he throws 2 different curves so he really isn't a 2 pitch pitcher (he has the really big breaking one and then the tight breaking one he tends to throw for strikes). Haven't watched him this year I don't know what exactly his issues are.

[Schlitz001]

Sheets struck out 8 and only gave up 4 hits over 6.1 innings today against the hot hitting Rays. I didn't watch the game, but looking at gameday, it looked like Sheets was getting a lot of swings and misses at curveballs.