What about a trade?

[TooLiveBrew]

Has anyone out there got any ideas/rumors on trades the Crew could make for that corner outfielder? Maybe a disgruntled guy or a guy who'd be willing to work out a trade-and-sign. Obviously Vernon Wells has been mentioned, but I'm wondering about other alternatives. Please no mentioning Pat Burrell -- the last thing we need is another 150+ strikeout guy who doesn't hit for average

[sbrylski]

All the likely names have been tossed around already though. Crawford, Burrell, Wells, Jones.

 

I think Jones will end up staying put, and I wouldn't be overly excited about trading for an inconsistent Wells who likely would leave after next year anyway. Burrell has a no trade clause, though he said he would waive it for SF. That leaves Crawford.

 

If we want to pay Tampa's price, Crawford profiles exactly into what the team is focusing on this offseason: speed and defense. Tampa will probably demand more than it is smart to offer, however. Hopefully we will hear about Melvin at least negotiating with them.

[MattFlair]

I think Jones will end up staying put, and I wouldn't be overly excited about trading for an inconsistent Wells who likely would leave after next year anyway. Burrell has a no trade clause, though he said he would waive it for SF. That leaves Crawford.

 

I translate this to mean you like Crawford the best. I would prefer to trade for the "inconsistent Wells" out of your options because he has more thump which is something I think we will need next year...at least more than Crawford's speed.

[JohnBriggs12]

The guy out there who would have the greatest impact in 2007 is Vernon Wells.

 

sbryliski calling him inconsistent doesn't make it so. He's had one year of under 97 RBI in the last 5 and even that year he put up a plus .800 OPS. That from a gold glove Centerfielder, a position not exactly settled on the Brewers.

 

He's also very familiar to Gord Ash.

 

With one year left on his contract would it be risky to give up a lot for this guy. Sure. But going the safe route hasn't exactly got the Brewers anywhere. Besides if it doesn't pan out, he could still be flipped at the deadline ala C. Lee.

[endaround]

No, him being inconsistent is what makes him inconsistent.

 

2003 .317/.359/.550 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .909

2004 .272/.337/.472 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .809

2005 .269/.320/.463 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .783

2006 .303/.357/.542 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .899

 

He had a great 2003 and followed that with decent but hardly great 2004 and 2005. If he hits over .300 he'll be great, if he doesn't, he won't be. Given his BABIP was .313, his BA is likely to fall a bit.

[trwi7]

If I knew Perez was the real deal at SS I'd have no problems giving them Hardy and a pitching prospect for Wells.

 

However I don't know if Perez is the real deal and with the likelihood of Wells leaving after 2007 it would be a HUGE mistake on the Brewers part to give up the farm for this guy.

[JohnBriggs12]

endaround,

 

I dare say you could take virtually any player's first 5 seasons and come up with an inconsistent tag by looking at their worst years There are very few players out there with zero risk. I would counter that most baseball experts consider Wells (who just turns 28 in December) to be one of the premier players in either league, your analysis notwithstanding. There were even a few out there that had Wells in the MVP talk in 06. I'd say that at 28 in a contract year, that he's much more likely to post a .900 OPS than one around .800 and that it's almost a certainty that he'd at least do no worse than hit .270 with 25-30 HR and 90+ RBI and play outstandig defense.

 

Even his so-called "decent but not great" 04 and 05 seasons were a lot better than what most CF put up numbers wise and you don't even mention that he also won Gold Gloves in 04 and 05 as well as 06.

 

Yeah Billy Hall is a fine athlete but I don't think he'll win any Gold Gloves in his first year in CF. The Jays could certainly use help at SS, and I'd have no problem dangling Hardy and a nice pitching prospect out there for a player of Wells stature even if it's for one year with a chance for more.

[endaround]

"Baseball experts" also say David Eckstein is a great player. Wells has been inconsistent. And I did not pick otu year, I looked at the last 4. If Wells is a true .300 hitter, he's a great player, if he's a true .270 hitter, not so much.

[monkeyman343434]

john, take a look at crawfords first years in the majors..... all i see is his OPS going up.... not up, down, down, up ... like wells, crawford is also younger, provides a lot more speed and will develop about as much pop as Wells has now, at the same age (3 years from now) ... plus an added bonus that crawford is signed through the 2010 season i believe , instead of a one-year rent a player that Wells would be, and there is no way the brewers will give him a 6 year $100+ mil. contract which many are saying he will get this next offseason

[JohnBriggs12]

Sorry endaround I don't quite get the Eckstein comparison.

 

Wells was the number 5 overall pick in the 97 draft, made his major league debut at age 20. He's got the pedigree of a great player.

 

You want a guarantee he'll hit .300? I can't guarantee that but nobody is that big a lock either. Is there a guarantee Fielder will be a .300 hitter or any better than he has shown? No. How about Weeks? No.

Hardy? No. Because none of those guys has ever done it.

 

Wells has.

[JohnBriggs12]

monkeyman34,

 

I like Crawford an awful lot too.

 

But he doesn't play CF, he doesn't have the power Wells has, and doesn't get on base at a real high clip. But he certainly can run and steal bases a lot better than Wells.

 

But because his contract is so very, very appealing, virtually every team in either league covets him making his price a lot steeper than Wells'.

 

If Wells indeed can command a 6 year $100 million deal then he has to put up numbers at least comparable to his 06. If he does that, plays Gold Glove CF, allows Brewers to keep Hall at Short and doesn't cost us one of our top 3 starting pitchers, then I'm buying playoff tickets next fall and I'll worry about 08 after that.

[TooLiveBrew]

I like it Briggs!

[sbrylski]

I dare say you could take virtually any player's first 5 seasons and come up with an inconsistent tag by looking at their worst years.

 

First you argued that he wasn't even inconsistent. Then you backed out and said everyone is inconsistent in their first few years.

 

I would be happy to see the Brewers go out and grab Wells. I just think he is a bigger risk than Crawford (though the cost difference of each player may balance that out). You mentioned how nobody is a guarantee, but then you essentially said that if we make the move we will make the playoffs.

 

I see a lot of Geoff Jenkins in Vernon Wells, which concerns me, and should be of more concern to a lot of people here that never liked Jenkins and want to grab Wells.

[sbrylski]

But he doesn't play CF, he doesn't have the power Wells has, and doesn't get on base at a real high clip.

 

I understand your arguements except for the OBP. Over the last three years, Crawford has a rather weak .337 OPB, but Wells only has a .338 himself.

[RobertR]

While I like Crawford, the risk with him is that he's perceived as a superstar for his fantasy numbers, rather than for what he actually does to win baseball games and he's going to cost that much more.

 

And, really, I think there's a lot higher upside in Wells. If Wells does what he did last year, the Brewers likely make the playoffs. It's a lot more dicey if Crawford just repeats what he did last year. Carl Crawford's career high OPS is all of 0.002 OPS points higher than Vernon Wells' average OPS. Now, granted, Crawford steals a lot of bases at a very good percentage rate, but I don't think it's really debatable that the upside for 2007 is significantly higher in the case of Wells, especially when you factor in defense and position. Long term, I'd rather commit to a centerfielder as well.

 

That said, I'd be happy with either.

 

Robert

[colbyjack]

And, really, I think there's a lot higher upside in Wells. If Wells does what he did last year, the Brewers likely make the playoffs. It's a lot more dicey if Crawford just repeats what he did last year. Carl Crawford's career high OPS is all of 0.002 OPS points higher than Vernon Wells' average OPS.

 

Keep in mind that Crawford is only 25 years old, and his stats have been getting better each year he has been playing:

 

2003: .281/.309/.362

2004: .296/.331/.450

2005: .301/.331/.469

2006: .305/.348/.482

 

That's a pretty nice, steady progression, and there's no reason to think given his age that he won't continue to get better.

 

That isn't to take anything away from Wells, whom I also would love to see in Milwaukee, but when Crawford is 27-28 years old, their numbers may be very similar, and as noted, Crawford has the added benefit of being a base-stealing threat.

[RobertR]

Yeah, don't get me wrong, I'd be pretty darn happy if the Brewers were to somehow land Crawford. Young, very good, and affordable are certainly attractive qualities. I'm just saying that you're probably looking at another 2 or 3 years of steady improvement until he's a legitimate star left-fielder instead of a fantasy all star. There are platoons involving Gross or Jenkins that might be every bit as valuable as Crawford in 2007, albeit not as exciting. 2008 and beyond is likely a very different story though.

 

Robert

[sbrylski]

RC/G

 2004 2005 2006 | AVG ---- ---- ---- | ---- Wells 5.90 5.46 7.55 | 6.30 Crawford 5.77 6.12 6.74 | 6.21

 

When a player has as high of SB% as Crawford does, that is when SB really start to make a difference. They are actually fairly comparable over the last three years, and all things equal I'll take the younger player who has been steadily improving with a long favorable contract over the year-to-year inconsistent player with only a year left on his deal.

 

All other things aren't equal, though, so while I'd pay more to get Crawford, Wells could end up being the player to target based on the asking prices.

[RobertR]

I tend to lean towards WARP due to position value.

 

Vernon Wells

Year WARP

2003 7.7

2004 4.4

2005 4.9

2006 6.2

Ave: 5.8

 

Carl Crawford

Year WARP

2003 4.0

2004 6.1

2005 5.6

2006 4.6

Ave: 5.1

 

I'd like to have either as there's not that big a difference between the two. I really like Wells' value in CF, which is the edge to me, while there's a lot to like about Crawford's consistency, age, and contract. The only real concern that I have with Crawford is how does he match up against the elite hitters in LF, and I think WARP shows that it's something of an issue for him.

 

Robert

[sbrylski]

Fair enough. I tend to think that while comparing the players to other players at that position is important, in the end it just comes down to whoever has the best 8. I do understand where you are coming from though.

[colbyjack]

I know one poster a while back mentioned that Crawford opposed a move to CF. Has that ever been confirmed? He does have 53 games in center under his belt, including 46 games started, and his range factor (2.9http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/glasses.gif and zone rating (.917) are not only better than his numbers in LF (2.46/.899), but they're also better than Wells' (2.49/.905). A small sample, yes, but it's about one-third of a season, and he certainly has the speed and overall athleticism to play center.

[fleehaw]

I would like to see Hart & Gross in the COF spots next year. Hart is almost a lock. As far as Gross goes, I'd like to see him prove he can/can't hit lefties. Give him a decent leash and if he can't hack it, platoon him with Clark/Rotino/Mench...

 

Let me add this caveat. For me to be happy with Gross playing everyday, CF would have to be upgraded. Whether it be a trade (Crawford/Wells) or move Hall. If Hall is moved to CF, I'd like to see an upgrade at 3B (Ensberg?).

[sbrylski]

Colby, I never saw it confirmed either, but I did some digging:

 

LINK

 

Quote:

---

"I was moving to center because the team needed help in centerfield and I was trying to be a team player," Crawford said. "I felt more comfortable in left and by him telling me he wants me to go back, I was happy to hear the news. ... Going back to left I think I'll be more at ease being in that comfort zone. I don't want to say "relax' but I can ease up the tension a little bit and just play my game."

---

[Principessa21]

Who would you propose to deal for Ensberg? This sounds intriguing.

 

He only hit .235 last year, battling right shoulder injuries, but drew an astonishing 101 BB with 387 ABs (96 Ks as well). Even with his crummy BA (OBP = .396, OPS = ..859, career OPS = .858), his stats project to 31 HRs based on the 526 ABs he got in 2005.

 

My main concern is that he's 30, and his 526 ABs in 2005 is by far the highest for his career. He didn't even play in 2001, and hasn't established the consisntent ability to play a full season.

 

In my humble opinion, the best way for the Crew to improve at 3B is to give the job to Bill Hall, full-time. Unless we can deal for a proven, durable commodity there, of course. A guy like Ensberg sounds intriguing, but he has durability ?s

[fleehaw]

I agree that Hall is probably the Brewers best bet at 3B right now. However, Hall is one of the Brewers with the highest trade value and most versatility.

 

So, if Hall is moved to CF, SS, or traded, I would hope 3B would be addressed by some other means.

 

I mention Ensberg because he was rumored to be on the block at the deadline. One such rumor, had him going to the Padres for Linebrink and Blum/Belhorn. Also, given that he underachieved in '06, he could be a candidate to be moved this offseason. Someone else proposed a Davis for Ensberg swap. I like it. A swap of the '06 underachievers. Ensberg mans 3B for a season or two and then hopefully Braun takes over. Meanwhile, this would allow Hall to either move to CF or SS, or trade him for a young pitcher (perhaps an Ervin Santana type).

 

With Braun in the wings, I would trade Hall & Davis for Santana & Ensberg. Pay the piper for Carl Crawford and suddenly the Brewers are the team to beat in the central.