Rotation battle

[kramnoj]

good luck finding a thesaurus that finds "average" and "quality" synonymous.

 

It was clear that you used a thesaurus to write your first post, but I don't need one to know that the intent of the quality start was to represent how many times a pitcher has a game that gives his team a decent chance to win.

 

Last time I checked, slightly more than half of "quality starts" were either losses or ND's for the pitcher.

Odd how such "quality" would yield sub .500 results?

 

What was the last time you checked, and what was the source? Also, if a team loses a game when the SP gives up 3 runs, chances are it was lost by the bullpen or the team didn't score enough runs. Hard to blame that on the pitcher.

 

Not when the player being compared to him wins 7 games (who did that last year?).

 

First, "quality starts" are right behind pitching "wins" as one of the most overrated (and , in the case of "quality starts", most convoluted and misleading) major statistics in the game, and, perhaps, all of sports.

 

Jeff Suppan: 4.68 ERA 135-136 (with 4 of those seasons on an offensive juggernaut to boot).

 

So you understand wins aren't really relevant, yet you use it twice within your first few posts to make your point?

[logan82]

I would like to see some specif references if you are going to say that somebody wants Suppan in the starting rotation if all our pitchers are healthy. Ender is the only one who comes to mind but his preference if I recall was only if Parra kept walking guys.

[Mass Haas]

Brian and Bill are indicating that Chris Narveson was outstanding today, and faced several Ranger regulars in his "B" game.

[local hero]

Ok, first to kramjno: obviously I am not making a direct comparison between pitching and team wins. One doesn't validate or invalidate the other necessarily. The point is that while "team" wins can very much give a decent (or even a good) indication of a teams worth, they are nowhere near as indicative when it comes to a single pitcher for a myriad of reasons.

 

Two, I will indeed track down that rather obscure stat. To be honest, I read it on espn...it was quoted by another talking head who contested the validity of the "quality" of the"quality start". Here's to hoping I unearth entire article, as I'd rather not regurgitate it in my own words.

Last, thanks, but no thesaurus needed just yet- I do quite a bit of his stuff.

 

I'm on my iPhone ATM, so it makes for cumbersome searching and quoting. But, my "reference" would of course be this thread fo feeling a few think Suppan has any business at all throwing a baseball for this team in any capacity.

This is plowing the thread way OT anyway, so sorry for the quality start right turn.

James

 

James

[bjkrautk]

...

Two, I will indeed track down that rather obscure stat. To be honest, I read it on espn...it was quoted by another talking head who contested the validity of the "quality" of the"quality start". Here's to hoping I unearth entire article, as I'd rather not regurgitate it in my own words.

Last, thanks, but no thesaurus needed just yet- I do quite a bit of his stuff.

...

Quality Starts are a recurring subject here on Brewerfan. My take: A 4.5 ERA is nothing great, but it isn't meant to be. 3 runs in 6 innings are a baseline from which performance can be measured. You hope that your starting pitcher does better than that (1 run in 6 innings, or a complete game shutout for that matter). You can make the argument about 4ER over 8 innings (also a 4.5 ERA), but you're arguing over a very minute case, and mostly missing the point of the stat.

 

As I see it, the value in quality starts is as a measure of a starter's consistency. If you look at what % of a pitcher's starts are indeed 'quality,' you start to get a sense of how good the pitcher really is. I would gladly take a pitcher who puts up a quality start every 5th day, since I suspect they'll end up with an ERA well below 4.5 (either by giving fewer earned runs in some 6 inning outings, or pitching past the 6th inning) in the process. It doesn't mean that pitcher is going to win every time they throw a quality starts (Sheets was the veritable poster boy for Quality Start losses earlier in his career), but a pitcher who doesn't frequently put up QS's are either keeping your team from winning games, or putting additional stress on the bullpen (which generally leads to your team losing games over the course of a season).

 

Put another way, it is the quantity of quality starts (or the lack thereof) that should draw your attention, rather than niggling over whether the 6 IP / 3 ER case is really 'quality'.

[Funketown]

^ Just let Braden Looper and Ben Sheets know. Causation with the above is impossible to prove. Far too many interdependent and independent variables working with and against one another.

 

09' example: de la rosa 16 wins 4.38 ERA

Lincecum: 15 wins 2.48 ERA

 

James

I'm pretty sure he wasn't referring to pitching wins; rather 'team wins', whether it be WAR, WARP, etc.

 

Using WAR (which is admittedly imperfect), De La Rosa was worth 3.7 wins above replacement while Lincecum was worth 8.2 wins above replacement.

 

I can't direct you to any good literature that discusses the relationship between player runs and team wins, but I'm sure somebody else on here can.

[RockCoCougars]

While Suppan may not be the "worst pitcher" ever to play, that doesn't mean that he should be in the majors- or more specifically, on the Brewers' roster. The guy has nothing left, and doesn't miss any bats. For Pete's sake, pitchers hit .250 off him last year. Of the "good starts" of his that I remember from last year, lots of it was luck- atom ball line drives right at somebody, smoked one-hop double plays, and fly balls to the warning track. Not from last year, but I remember one start I think from late 2008 in San Diego, which was probably a "quality start". There were about 6 long drives, most or all were outs, and most or all would have been out of Miller Park. His stuff isn't fooling anybody, and if the powers that be keep him around, the fans aren't going to be fooled either as to the real reason why. Keep somebody that actually has the talent to get batters out themselves, not someone who depends on guys to "miss" pitches.

[joepepsi]

Well said bjkrautk.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm in the odd position of defending both Suppan and the quality start stat. As far as Suppan goes, he's getting paid too much money to cut him or throw him in the bully- where he probably won't be successful anyhow. It's a long season. Give him the chance to start the year in the rotation. If he blows up 3 or 4 times you always have the option of cutting him loose then. Maybe he's serviceable for a couple months and you can get something out of him.

 

As far as quality starts go, I agree it's not the msot accurate term for the stat. And yes, the stat itself is flawed. Yet, I do think it has value. If a SP can get you through 6 innings and only give up 3 runs, you should be "in the game." Now, QUALITY start may not be the best term. But we all know wha tit is, and what it means, so the name is almost irrelevant. We all know how the Brewers starters struggled getting through 6 innings last year, so I do think there's some vaule in looking at the percentage of times a SP gets a QS.

 

Finally, I think it;s an even better gauge for your #4,5,6 etc. starters. If guys like Suppan, Smith, and a cast of thousands can get a QS, I don't expect much more than that. If Suppan could go out and pitch 6 innings every start with a 4.50 I could live with that. See, ERA is deceiving too. Would you rather have one brilliant start from him, two QS, and then 3 times he gets lit up, or would you prefer 5 QS? Speaking for myself, I would be fine with consistent mediocrity from the #5 SP.

[endaround]

The Brewers are paying too much money to Wolf, Fielder and Hoffman to just throw Suppan into the rotation and hope for the best.

[trwi7]

You wonder why Macha doesn't say stuff like this to the pitcher who actually deserves it.

 

 

In this morning’s “B” game, Chris Narveson gave up a run in five innings but Macha said he didn’t appear as sharp as he has this spring. Macha said he had good life and movement on his pitches, but he wasn’t painting the corners and hitting exact locations today.

Macha had a nice viewing point, standing behind the plate on a back field instead of seeing Narveson from the side.

He also said Narveson’s velocity was down but that could be an affect of the morning start. Although, Macha noted that when you’re fighting for a spot in the rotation, every time you take the ball you should be amped up.

“He threw strikes and didn’t walk people,” Macha said. “But the way he hits corners wasn’t there and he was down a notch or two with his velocity.

“If you’re trying to make a team, I’d suggest you turn it up.”

Link

[Crew2323]

This is really starting to bug me. Narveson gives up one run in five innings, and his manager criticizes him for not hitting the corners like he normally does and because his velocity was down a notch or two. Whereas Suppan gets shelled in a game and gives up four home runs and his manager defends him until he's blue in the face because "only two of them were legit." Sometimes I wonder if Macha thinks before he speaks.

[kramnoj]

Keep somebody that actually has the talent to get batters out themselves, not someone who depends on guys to "miss" pitches.

 

Do you think anybody is arguing this? The question is, do the other pitchers not only have the talent, but the ability to get batters out? I don't think anybody here wants Suppan to start a game for the Brewers this year. I think everybody would love it if better pitchers started games over him. What a few of us are saying is that Suppan was one of our better pitchers this year, and injuries will most likely occur that will bring up a situation where we are going to need to 6, 7, 8 deep, or worse.

 

At this point, the only loss to the Brewers if Suppan gets sent to the bullpen is that Villenueva is sent to the minors. And we're not losing him, he's available when needed. If Suppan does get sent to the bullpen, he surely won't be a key member. He just won't have much impact, but will be an emergency guy when needed, both in the bullpen and as an emergency starter. If we get in a situation where 2 or 3 SP are out of the rotation because of injury, then the team may as well keep Suppan around since we are paying him anyway.

 

****

 

As to quality starts, it may now be that most quality starts don't result in a win, but that says more about today's pitching and how many NDs pitchers get. Gallardo was certainly a good pitcher last year, but he had 13 wins in 30 games started. Why would we expect a generic quality start to have a better success ratio than Gallardo did?

[TheCrew07]

You wonder why Macha doesn't say stuff like this to the pitcher who actually deserves it.

I know we've beaten to death the whole young player vs veteran player thing with Macha, but I'm struggling to understand why DM thought he was good choice in the first place, or why he tacked on that option for 2011. Macha is the first Brewer manager I"ve ever truly despised, he's just a horrible fit for a team that is always going to rely on young players to be successful. He just bungles everything, he tries to be sabermetric and takes it too far like completely eliminating the running game last season. He tries to do the right thing and play the most productive player while sitting our top prospect on the bench because he's in a zim-zam. If he's going to back Suppan, he damn well better back Narveson when he fights through 5IP without his best stuff.

 

I find the whole quote trwi7 linked extremely frustrating.

[logan82]

You get the feeling Suppan is going to end up in the rotation. Hopefully TH just misspoke when he blogged this[/url].

 

 

By keeping two stretched-out pitchers in the pen, if somebody gets

hurt, or if Suppan can't get going, alternatives would be at hand. The

Brewers don't need a No. 5 starter until late April, so Suppan could be

placed in that role, allowing them to skate by without him for awhile.

Anything could happen over the final two weeks, but at this point,

the Brewers don't appear willing to part ways with any of their starting

candidates. They remember getting caught short last season, and don't

want that to happen again

When Macha came over we were led to believe that he was good with young players. I completely disagree at this point. He doesn't take the Sabermetric thing to far, he missuses it. It gets something in his head and then finds numbers that appear to back it up what he is saying. Look at THT's analysis of how he presented the numbers on Gomez earlier in spring training. Few people who like the sabermetric part of baseball would just drop the run altogether. They would be more selective with who they let steal. I think Macha is a control freak.

 

[Tailgat0r76]

You wonder why Macha doesn't say stuff like this to the pitcher who actually deserves it.

I know we've beaten to death the whole young player vs veteran player thing with Macha, but I'm struggling to understand why DM thought he was good choice in the first place, or why he tacked on that option for 2011. Macha is the first Brewer manager I"ve ever truly despised, he's just a horrible fit for a team that is always going to rely on young players to be successful. He just bungles everything, he tries to be sabermetric and takes it too far like completely eliminating the running game last season. He tries to do the right thing and play the most productive player while sitting our top prospect on the bench because he's in a zim-zam. If he's going to back Suppan, he damn well better back Narveson when he fights through 5IP without his best stuff.

 

I find the whole quote trwi7 linked extremely frustrating.

I agree 100% on the quote part, and I'm coming around to agree on your other points as well. When I read that last line “If you’re trying to make a team, I’d suggest you turn it up.” it really really made me angry. Here we're talking about a guy who has a 0.65 ERA this Spring and you're telling him to "turn it up"? I'm sorry, but that line really infuriated me, and I can't think of any reason why Macha would say it other than that he just loves his Vets and expects everything and more out of the younger and unproven guys.

[TooLiveBrew]

Another reason Macha might say that? Maybe he's just not that intelligent.

[RockCoCougars]

Keep somebody that actually has the talent to get batters out themselves, not someone who depends on guys to "miss" pitches.

 

Do you think anybody is arguing this? The question is, do the other pitchers not only have the talent, but the ability to get batters out? I don't think anybody here wants Suppan to start a game for the Brewers this year. I think everybody would love it if better pitchers started games over him. What a few of us are saying is that Suppan was one of our better pitchers this year, and injuries will most likely occur that will bring up a situation where we are going to need to 6, 7, 8 deep, or worse.

 

At this point, the only loss to the Brewers if Suppan gets sent to the bullpen is that Villenueva is sent to the minors. And we're not losing him, he's available when needed. If Suppan does get sent to the bullpen, he surely won't be a key member. He just won't have much impact, but will be an emergency guy when needed, both in the bullpen and as an emergency starter. If we get in a situation where 2 or 3 SP are out of the rotation because of injury, then the team may as well keep Suppan around since we are paying him anyway.

Maybe no one is arguing this here, but every indication in the press is that the team plans to break camp with Suppan in the rotation. There is absolutely no logical reason for the team to anchor themselves to Suppan besides the contract.... though I'm beginning to think that he 'has something' on Mark A. My argument is that he can be cut with no problem, because even if starters get injured, almost any 'guy' should be able to outperform him. You mentioned Villanueva.....why can't he be 'stretched out' in the minors for the first few weeks of the season so he can be a swing man and make spot starts if needed? Frankly, the main reason that I don't want Suppan around is that Macha won't have the temptation to use him. All that said, it seems that the team will foolishly follow through on my prediction and that Suppan will be given at least 6 or 8 starts to 'work things out'.

[kramnoj]

Another reason Macha might say that? Maybe he's just not that intelligent.

That's just silly. He has an engineering degree from the University of Pittsburgh. I think Macha has quite a few opportunities for improvement, but I don't see any reason to believe intelligence to be a weakness of his. Occam's Razor. He isn't up to date on advanced sabermetrics. He isn't a good interpersonal communicator. Like most baseball people, he can be prone to fail with a Proven Veteran as opposed to young guy. There's quite a few things one can see that Macha lacks before irresponsibly suggesting he lacks intelligence.

[local hero]

Two items: first, I'd bet a large sum that Suppan WILL be in the rotation in 2 weeks, like it or not. And two, since I was unable to jump back on yesterday evening, one more word about QS's. I have no problem with the aim of the stat, just the parameters of it. I simply do not believe giving up 3 runs in 6 innings is a "quality start". It's as simple as that. Since the use of whole numbers with such a stat is nearly unavoidable, I realize there's no easy fix. I'd "like" to see something like 3 ernies over 7, but I realize starting pitchers going 7 innings these days is beyond infrequent...even for the better ones. Just a reality of how the game works these days.

 

What I think may happen is: that as the game continues to "juice down", and production comes back down to earth, the stat may/will be tweaked (fittingly). Runs per game (per team) have already declined over 1/2 run in the last 8 or so years:

 

2009 4.523

2008 4.651

2007 4.797

2006 4.858

2005 4.592

2004 4.814

2003 4.728

2002 4.618

2001 4.775

2000 5.140

1999 5.085

 

 

If this continues to near 4 1/4 per game, it will be all but obvious that allowing 3 earned runs in 6 innings will give your team less than a 50/50 chance of winning the game. Again, I realize this is the minimum, just sayin'. Done with the QS.

 

I'd personally love to see this in 2 weeks:

 

1. Gallardo

2. Wolf

3. Davis

4. Bush

5. Narveson

 

 

James

[Paulus88]

So wait were using Occom's Razor to conclude that Macha has a bias against young players based on that one statement (especially when Macha has gone out of his way to praise Narveson all ST). Could it just be that Narveson didn't pitch all that well.

 

Furthermore where is this bias against young players coming from? Gamel? McGehee outperformed him and Gamel struggled making contact he should have been in the minors but that isn't Macha's fault. Last year Macha stuck with Parra, played Escobar, brought Stetter in in tough situations. I struggle to think of any other situations where a vet has been played over soemone with better promise and tolerable performance.

[yount19.u]

I don't think Macha's comments on Narveson indicate he's favoring Suppan over him. He was critical of Suppan in a statement he made last week as well that suggested Suppan's throwing style was not up to par with what Macha discussed with him. I think a lot of it is more motivational than anything. Narveson is a younger pitcher who's trying to win a spot on a team that will require him to pitch above and beyond all the other candidates. Suppan's been around a while and can't be pushed as hard as the younger guys can. It's the "old dog, new tricks" cliche. I'm sure Macha wants to win as badly as all of us this year. And I'm also sure that he realizes, for Narveson to make the rotation over Suppan, he'll have to be nearly flawless this spring.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's nonsense to think you can keep 1 much less 2 guys "stretched out" as "long men" in the pen. First of all there is no such thing as a "long man", unless you consider 3 innings of relief long. Unless the starter doesn't get out of the 1st inning, which even with the Brewers poor starting pitching didn't happen once in 2009, no relievers in the NL go more than 3 innings for the simple reason that with 12 man staffs, there's almost always more than one guy that could use the work and in the NL managers aren't going to let their relief guy bat more than once before he starts hitting for him.

 

So the Brewers may go into the season with 7 stretched out pitchers, but a month into the season, they'll have 5 like everyone else.

[sheethead]

I find the whole quote trwi7 linked extremely frustrating.

 

Ditto this. But Macha is definitely not stupid. He is running the agenda laid out by management. While it appears they are resolved to giving Suppan another 20+ chances to prove his worth, I certainly don't have to like it. He clearly has nothing left to give with his right arm.

[local hero]

^ +1. It is difficult to imagine what else needs to occur other than the last 3 seasons and this ST to prove this. 29-34 with a FIVE ERA , 73 bombs, and a WHIP approaching 1.6?! What more needs to be on the table before folks realize that there's nearly nothing but upside to moving on? This isn't months, this is 3 YEARS, folks.

 

I hate to continue to beat this down, but it's hard when you know this team needs to have all of it's I's dotted and T's crossed to make a run.

 

James