Rotation battle

[TooLiveBrew]

If the other 3 are clearly outperforming Suppan, he should be released. After all what's the point? The money has to be spent anyway.

 

This is what I really hope the Brewers are big enough to admit. The Bill Hall situation makes me feel at least a bit encouraged.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

Is it possible that we can trade Suppan for somebody that has a similar contract and is similarly under-performing, but maybe in a different position on the field. I don't know of anybody like that off the top of my head, but there's got to be somebody. Something like the Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley trade, perhaps?

[sheethead]

The Bill Hall situation makes me feel at least a bit encouraged.

 

Conversely, the Hall handling discourages me. They gave him almost 4 months to turn it around, when most people felt he wouldn't. How long do they leave Suppan in the rotation? How many taters are too many?

[TheCrew07]

How many taters are too many?

The answer is 70... because only half of them will be legit.

[kramnoj]

You can look at Turnbow and Gagne as examples of when the Brewers will give up on a pitcher. For some, even they got too many chances, but I don't think there's any reason to believe that Suppan will last 4 months in the rotation if he can't get people out.

[Diskono]

If the other 3 are clearly outperforming Suppan, he should be released. After all what's the point? The money has to be spent anyway.

 

This is what I really hope the Brewers are big enough to admit. The Bill Hall situation makes me feel at least a bit encouraged.

Jeffrey Hammonds too. Its not like Doug Melvin hasn't ever been willing to dump big contracts.

 

Is

it possible that we can trade Suppan for somebody that has a similar

contract and is similarly under-performing, but maybe in a different

position on the field. I don't know of anybody like that off the top of

my head, but there's got to be somebody. Something like the Carlos

Silva for Milton Bradley trade, perhaps?

Possibly, though it might almost be better to trade him + cash (most likely, $11m or so) for something negligible, like Brevard County roster filler. That way, we'd save a teensy bit of money, and not have the very same issue with another overpaid vet blocking better, younger players.

[BrewCrewForever]

I really hope they just eat that $12 mill. Let Suppan walk. Keep Parra and Bush in the rotation and have Narveson as the long man in the pen who would join the rotation if their is an injury or Parra or Bush struggle. Of course I think they most likely keep Suppan and let Bush or Narveson go which seems ridiculous.

[monty57]

From McCalvy's "Brewers near tough roster decisions" article on milwaukeebrewers.com http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100314&content_id=8789564&vkey=news_mil&fext=.jsp&c_id=mil

 

Macha finally admitted Saturday that Gallardo, Wolf and Davis are lined up to start the season-opening series against the Rockies. Two spots are officially open in the rotation and one in the bullpen for a slew of legitimate competitors.

 

For the rotation, it's a four-man race led by Jeff Suppan, who made his third spring start Sunday against the Giants. Suppan is guaranteed $12.5 million, and for the moment he's lined up to start the fourth game of the season on April 9 against the Cardinals.

 

That article really makes it sound like Suppan's going to be in the rotation to start the season, and Bush has a good chance of getting cut to save money. I guess the decision will come down to "is Bush $4MM better than Suppan," as they can save money by cutting Bush, so he'd have to be projected to be significantly better than Suppan for him to win the spot. As a fan, I hope they keep the best players on the roster. As an owner/GM, I guess you have to consider money, and they're probably going to try to sell the story that Suppan is as good as Bush, so cutting Bush to save $4MM is the right move for the team. I don't like it, and I'd much rather have them trade Suppan for any salary relief they can find, but I'm quickly believing that Suppan will be a regular this season.

 

Also note that it says one bullpen spot is open. Whether it makes sense or not, I don't think they're going to put two of Suppan/Narveson/Bush/Parra into the bullpen. Barring injury, two will be in the rotation, one will be long man in the pen and one will be playing elsewhere (or sitting on a beach somewhere making $12.5MM).

[TheCrew07]

If Suppan makes the cut, it would leave three pitchers for one spot.

Left-handers Manny Parra and Chris Narveson are both out of options,

but right-hander Dave Bush has more Major League experience. Bush's

$4.215 million contract won't become guaranteed until Opening Day, so

he knows that anything can happen.

So does that mean by having an open competition in camp, what the team really meant was that they hoped Suppan pitched well enough to deserve a spot anyway? This is one decision the team should make entirely on talent, why would they retain Suppan to let younger more effective pitchers walk? I know Parra hasn't proven anything yet, but at least he has chance to improve, Suppan has been on slow stead decline for years, just because someone is a veteran who knows how to go about his business doesn't mean he's the best alternative in the short or long term for the franchise.

 

Yost took a ton of crap for his yostisms about grittiness and battling, but he'd at least look at the talent and give that talent room to grow. Keeping Suppan around screams Macha to me, the decision having already been made for all of the wrong reasons... DM has at least proven willing to eat a contract with only a year remaining on it on the past. I just can't fathom the logic that slotting Suppan already is the best course of action. Yes it's spring training and generally no I don't care about ST statistics, but don't tell us this is an open competition and then anoint the player who has performed the worst thus far with a slot in the rotation.

[Invader3K]

I'm not sure if this belongs in here, but apparently Capuano has had another setback and is being "shut down indefinitely." Disappointing to hear, as I know many were pulling for him. Apparently he doesn't plan on quitting though.

 

I definitely wouldn't plan on seeing him in the majors in 2010, personally.

[brewmann04]

the terrible news for him personally he busted his butt tring to get back. Best of Luck to CC

[adambr2]

Narveson is making it awfully tough not to give him a roster spot...another solid outing today and yet to allow a run....

 

Bush is doing well.....Parra is too, and obviously he has that big potential factor....

 

I really think this is the nightmare scenario so far for Melvin and Mark A. They didn't want to come out and say it, but they came in with the mentality that Suppan was the frontrunner of the 4 for the last two spots and a job was his to lose. They were hoping for a decent ST out of him so they could justify keeping him around for his last year. Now the opposite is happening and they're torn between releasing a $12.5M player and keeping him around and still trying to justify it...my opinion.....

 

At this point, if Suppan makes the rotation and Narveson gets waived, they may as well have said that there was absolutely nothing Narveson could do to get a spot and absolutely nothing Suppan could do to lose a spot, barring injury, rather than telling us they were all in contention.

[Never Outhustled]

With Lofgren now a AAA starter, can they cut Suppan and Bush, and just go with their best starting 5?

[recte44]

Many a wise man has said that those who make decisions based on AZ (or FL, but in this case AZ) is a fool. With that being said, Narveson's solid work is also on the heels of a very impressive September. He's given us something Parra never has: results. The same can be said for Suppan, and to some extent, Bush.

 

I know many have spoken of keeping them all to keep our options open. And I would agree to some extent. Here's my decisions based on the current situation:

 

Suppan will be the #4, Narveson will be the #5.

Parra to the pen.

Bush will be traded or released, saving us some salary.

 

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Macha raves about Narveson, you hardly hear him speaking of Bush in such glowing tones. I know they love Parra's potential but the time for potential is in the past. Let him have some time in the pen and working with Rick Peterson. Let's give Suppan's new found "movement" and his experience one last chance to earn all the money we have to pay him either way. I read another poster allude to a possible BABIP improvement in Suppan just because of the improved middle defense (Weeks > Lopez; Escobar > Hardy; Gomez > Cameron). I'd agree. He's a pitch to contact pitcher, his success his largely contingent on the defense behind him.

 

Well that was certainly long winded. The moral of my post? Narveson has earned a rotation spot, not just from his solid spring, but the carryover from his solid September as well. I'd love to see what he does with a full opportunity.

[logan82]

I read another poster allude to a possible BABIP improvement in Suppan just because of the improved middle defense (Weeks > Lopez; Escobar > Hardy; Gomez > Cameron).

 

That poster made a mistake. We got +14 runs UZR at the 2B postion last year. That led the league. There is almost no way Weeks matches that. Yes Weeks has made some improvements on defense but I doubt he is an elite defender at 2B. We got +6.7 runs UZR in a partial season out of JJ.(8.8 UZR/150) That is well above average on defense. Escobar needs to become more consistent for his defense to be that good. We got about +4.5 runs at SS. I assume average for Escobar as of right now. I will agree that Gomez is a better defender than Cameron in CF. That isn't much improvement there either though since Cameron was an above average defender. We didn't replace Podsednik out in CF. Overall I think we probably lost a win on defense up the middle.(lost a win win at 2B assuming Weeks can be better than average, lost half a win at SS or best case scenario break even, gained half a win at CF)

[AJAY]

The fact that Suppan is still being discussed as a candidate for the rotation really bothers me. This isn't the Ned Yost era anymore where the manager sticks with failing players despite everyone else in the world knowing that the guy stinks. We missed winning the division by just 2 games in 2007 thanks to this kind of mindset, and I am certainly not interested in going through that again.

 

Every game matters. We don't have time to experiment with Suppan anymore. Let him go and let's move on.

[Ennder]

I think people are too harsh on Suppan and even I agree he should probably be out at this point. Last year was clearly a decline even before the injury and while spring isn't a huge deal it still points to him not being improved at all. At best you can make a marginal case for Suppan being the teams 5th best starter and I think the poor spring probably should lead to a loss of the job.

[MNBrew]

Recte44, we alums of the same fine HS are often on the same wavelength, but not in this case: Parra indeed has given the Crew results -- far more so to be optimistic about than Suppan. Parra's '07 callup was VERY productive, however limited late in the year. His '08 was decent even though, as I recall, he wore down badly in September (as did most of the rest of the team).

 

No matter how you slice it, Jeff Suppan is still terrible. Despite his success in St. Louis, his 3-year trend in Milwaukee is scary. His new "motion" stuff was so successful that he gave up 4 HRs in 4 IP the other day, only 2 of which were wind-aided.

 

Parra hasn't proven he's totally worthless, although his '09 showing has justified decent doubts that he must prove wrong. However, he still showed ability at times in '09 but became such a mess & never could build the confidence needed to get back on track. Where he lost it was in his head, not in his talent & skills. I don't think anyone can really make the same argument for Suppan.

 

Parra

2007: 0-1, 3.76 ERA, 9 G (2 starts), 26.1 IP, 25 hits, 1 HR, 12 BB, 26 K, .255 BA, 1.41 WHIP

2008: 10-8, 4.39 ERA, 32 G (29 starts), 166 IP, 181 hits, 18 HRs, 75 BB, 147 K, .278 BA, 1.54 WHIP

2009: 11-11, 6.36 ERA, 27 G (all starts), 140 IP, 179 hits, 19 HRs, 77 BB, 116 K, .306 BA, 1.83 WHIP

 

Suppan

2007: 12-12, 4.62 ERA, 34 G (all starts), 206.2 IP, 243 hits, 18 HRs, 68 BB, 114 K, .298 BA, 1.50 WHIP

2008: 10-10, 4.96 ERA, 31 G (all starts), 177.2 IP, 207 hits, 30 HRs, 67 BB, 90 K, .298 BA, 1.54 WHIP

2009: 7-12, 5.29 ERA, 30 G (all starts), 161.2 IP, 200 hits, 25 HRs, 74 BB, 80 K, .309 BA, 1.69 WHIP

 

In spite of his awful late-season slump in '08, Parra was still a much better pitcher in '08 than Suppan. Only Parra's BB rate was appreciably worse. Overall he was still a rather respectable SP in '08. In '09, Parra had a worse year, especially in terms of ERA & BB rates (& therefore WHIP; Parra's hit rate is fractionally better; the BB rate is what's worse). But in most other areas he wasn't any worse than Suppan and was actually noticeably better.

 

I want to see Suppan bought out right now. Get him outta there. Here's how I hope to see the Opening Day pitching staff:

 

Starters: 1. Gallardo, 2. Wolf, 3. Davis, 4.-5. (2 out of the 3 of) Bush/Parra/Narveson

 

Bullpen: 1. Hoffman, 2. Coffey, 3. Hawkins, 4. Vargas, 5. Stetter, 6. Villanueva, 7. (the 3rd guy of) Bush/Parra/Narveson

 

Axford & Schoeneweis & Braddock & maybe Estrada would be the next few guys I'd look at for the 'pen. Riske might eventually contribute.

Lofgren & the loser of the Bush/Parra/Narveson battle would be the next 2 guys in line for turns in the rotation. Capuano might contribute if this inflammation thing is only a mild hiccup on the recovery road.

[MNBrew]

I'll amend my previous anti-Suppan rant with this **asterisk**:

 

The **ONLY** way I would be okay seeing Suppan remain a Brewer for a while is if a few other pitchers got hurt and his presence in the rotation did not cost the Brewers keeping Bush, Parra, Narveson, Stetter, Villanueva, or other prospects for the long run. Once the injured guys make it back (or sooner if he still stinks), it's buy-out time.

[logan82]

Parra's late season slump in 2008 happened about the time he increased his innings by more than 20 over the previous year. Several posters though he would start to decline around that time.

 

Villanueva can go down to AAA and pitch since he has options left. Stetter as well. We can easily keep Suppan in the pen and not lose anybody. With Hoffman, Hawkins, Vargas and Coffey in the pen the only innings left are mop up and long man innings.

 

Cutting Bush is really the only thing that would really irritate me. As long as Bush is kept, he will get a chance to start. Even Suppan in the starting rotation will not be to bad as long as they don't keep letting him make starts if he is ineffective.

[adambr2]

What about getting Bush to accept a minor league assignment? They might consider that if they are really hell bent on giving Soup at least a few starts in April to see what happens before they DFA him.

 

I don't think Bush would refuse and forfeit his $4.215M salary. He's not dumb, he knows that in this market, $4.215M for this season is considerably more than he'll be able to get if he declines a trip to Nashville and elects free agency. With guys like Washburn and Looper still looking for work, I don't anyone is going to offer Bush more than a $1M flyer or so as a FA.

 

So in theory then, we could keep everybody. Bush to AAA, (for now), Suppan in, Narveson and Parra in the 5 spot/long relief, in some order.

 

Frankly I'd prefer just releasing him. If our season hinges on whether or not Jeff Suppan makes this rotation, we're not making the playoffs anyway. Suppan is probably still good enough to be a league average #5 starter. But when we have Bush, Parra, and Narveson who can be decidedly better when at their best, I'd prefer not to mess around with desperately trying to salvage our $12.5M.

[JohnBriggs12]

With Parra, Bush and Narveson all throwing so well, what logical reason is there for keeping Suppan? All 3 of those guys seem easily capable of pitching to Suppan's career norm. As has been pointed out over and over, Suppan's cost is a fate accompli. It makes no sense for the Brewers to sacrifice a guy (2 of whom they control past this year) so Suppan can try to justify his contract. He's gone after this year anyway.

 

Haudricourt doesn't grasp it. Hopefully Melvin does.

[Diskono]

I have little doubt we would be able to get $12.5m worth of pitching out of Parra or Narveson before they hit free agency. Letting one of these guys go just so we can get negative value out of Suppan is pure KC Royals garbage, and makes no sense at all. The money is already spent, why keep him around if its going to hurt the team?

 

If Suppan really is our 5th best starting pitcher, keep him in the rotation. If he's not, but he's still our 12th best overall pitcher, keep him on mop-up duty. If he's not even that, just get rid of him, that's what good teams do. The Yankees didn't win the World Series by keeping Kei Igawa on the active roster for no good reason.

[MJLiverock]

Does it concern anyone that the Brewers could have 4 LH starters?

[strawbossisevil]

What's stopping the Brewers from sending Suppan down to the minors? All everyone here talks about is dumping him, why not at least send him to AAA so that when a rash of injuries happens he could step in? Yes, he'd be a very expensive AAA starter, but the money is already spent, so we might as well keep him around just in case a rash of injuries hits the rotation.