Rotation battle

[JohnBriggs12]

It just could be that TH has picked up a vibe that one spot is between Bush and Parra and the loser in that battle will be gone. That's entirely possible. In fact that's likely. Somebody competing for a spot now is not going to be in the organization on opening day. His assumption that Suppan's in the 5th spot is probably based on the fact that the 5th spot is between Suppan and Narveson, and he's assuming Suppan has an edge because they can slip Narveson into a long relief role initially, thus at least giving Suppan a few starts to see if he can justify his spot. Even if Suppan starts as number 5, there's no guaranty he'll be there in mid May.

 

As for loss of depth, there's still depth guys on the market. Need an arm? Looper, Washburn, Smoltz, Pedro are still out there.

[pmg4]

I believe Sheets was notorious for getting lit up during spring training.

Sheets was also notorious for regular-season success, allowing himself some leeway. Parra... not so much.

[Ennder]

Sure TH could have a vibe but he has posted opinion many times in the past as well so I'm not going to put much stock into things.

[Milltownhooker]

Can somebody look up Parra's stats as a reliever. Just from my memory it seems he's pitched best in that role

[Milltownhooker]

Maybe have Hoffman groom Parra to be the closer in waiting?

[Neugebauer]

Para reminds me of the dude whose head blows up in the movie Scanners when he has any pressure whatsoever. No way that nut job can handle closing.

[Ennder]

Para reminds me of the dude whose head blows up in the movie Scanners when he has any pressure whatsoever. No way that nut job can handle closing.

 

The stats really don't agree with this at all but I think I had this disagreement with people enough last year that I don't think anyone is going to change their mind about it. Once the fans give a player a reputation in their head no amount of stats will convince them otherwise.

[Milltownhooker]

So Ennder, better #'s in relief or as a starter?

[endaround]

He's hardly pitched any relief innings. That said his ERA as a starter 5.23 and as a reliever 4.44. Or basically what you'd expect when a starter goes to relieve.

[Ennder]

So Ennder, better #'s in relief or as a starter?

 

yeah slightly better. Better with RISP than without as well and about the same in high and low leverage situations though his peripherals are actually better in high leverage situations.

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

I really think Bush gets released in the next couple of days. 4 into 2 doesn't work and Suppan is pretty much assured a spot (even after today) with his contract. Parra and Narveson have both been good so far in ST (Bush hasn't been bad either). But with the Davis signing they were pushing if not over the payroll budget and saving the 5/6 of Bush's salary helps with that. Parra and Narveson complete the rotation and Suppan is long man in the pen. I don't see anyway they can keep all four and if they need to lose one Bush makes the most sense. He is a free agent next year anyway I believe and Parra and Narveson will be relatively cheap for a few more years.

The only reason I see this happening later in ST is if they want to wait to make sure no-one is injured in the next few weeks but then it will happen with a little less savings with Bush.

With Suppan in the pen and Cappy and Butler at Nashville with some of the other signing they made this offseason and hopefully they are better then Chase Wright was last year, they should have depth. If more than one of the big 3 go down the team would be in trouble with or without Bush.

I think he's a great guy and I loved rooting for him but I think his days are numbered. Looking forward to see how this plays out.

[Baldkin]

Cappy won't be able to start, more than likely. He'd have to be a bullpen guy. If his elbow even holds up. Counting on him as depth at all is just silly.

 

I can't imagine the Brewers cutting ties with a guy who had a low 4's ERA for a full seasons worth of starts between the idiotic Ned Yost platooning and when he got hurt last year

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

Do you have any information that Cappy is a bullpen guy. It looks like they are stretching Cappy out to start. He is pitching every 5th day and should go again on Tuesday and I thought I heard Macha say something to that effect early on. He will need time in AAA to build his arm once the season starts but by May I would think he would be an option.

[TooLiveBrew]

"Release Bush" makes no sense. If the Brewers are going to make the mistake of choosing Suppan over Bush, they will at least be able to bring back something via trade for Bush.

[MoreTrife]

i am just watching in horror as i know macha is going to insert suppan in that starting rotation. i will yell out for joy if for whatever reason (long relief, DL?, releasing him, etc) he doesn't start. it will be a brutal 3-4 starts before someone gets the balls to pull him.

[Baldkin]

Cappy is coming back from his second TJ surgery. Guys almost never make it back from that.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2007-07-18-tommy-john_N.htm

[Schlitz001]

i am just watching in horror as i know macha is going to insert suppan in that starting rotation. i will yell out for joy if for whatever reason (long relief, DL?, releasing him, etc) he doesn't start. it will be a brutal 3-4 starts before someone gets the balls to pull him.

Here's what Macha had to say after Suppan gave up 4 HRs today and recorded 6 of his 10 outs on flyballs to the outfield, "He gave up four home runs and I thought maybe two of them were legit.”

 

At the beginning of spring it sounded like there might actually be a competition for the last two rotation spots, but it seems like the number 4 spot was Suppan's all along. Maybe I'm reading too deep into that quote, but it sounds to me like Macha is starting with the excuses to keep Suppan in the rotation and the season hasn't even started yet. I gave Suppan a lot of support last year and would love to see him succeed, but if you're in a competition to be in the rotation there should be no good excuse for giving up 4 HRs.

[uwisfan]

no matter what, the brewers need to maximize the values of their pitchers this ST. If Suppan has played himself out of a position, then Macha needs to talk him up as much as possible. We can all hope that this is the driving force here

[logan82]

Here is McCalvy's take on it so far. In my opinion one or maybe both of Villanueva and Stetter will be sent down because they have options. We will need at least 7 starters for the year and probably closer to 9. 1 team, and I an surprised there was one, made it through a season with only 5 pitchers between 1998 and 2008. Link 2009 season in parenthesis.

 

Over the last 10 seasons

 

 

Only one team (out of 300) has gotten through a season with

only five different pitchers starting games. Any guess as to which it

was? Nine used six starters and sixteen used seven. This isn’t pretty,

but here are the overall numbers:

Starters Teams

5 1

6 9

7 16(1)

8 37(1)

9 42(7)

10 51(4)

11 43(5)

12 46(9)

13 29

14 14(2)

15 6(1)

16 3

17 3

The mean is 10.47(10.50), which is why teams preach depth, depth, depth. The

Brewers never used fewer than 8 starters in a season over that span.

The one five-starter team was the 2003 Mariners.

 

 

Stashing the 2 who don't make the rotation makes the most sense to me. We don't have to lose pitchers. Getting rid of Bush makes little sense. We are not likely to get a pitcher as good for the meager money we would save and he will be needed at some point.

[nate82]

Releasing Bush would be a bad idea. There is no way you can count on Capuano being anything other than a long relief pitcher at this time. He doesn't even have the stamina yet to pitch anything more than 4-5 innings at best. Counting on Capuano is like counting on Suppan to be the ace of your pitching staff you are just going to be disappointed.

 

I think Narveson/Parra will be in the bullpen and the rotation will be down to Narveson/Parra/Suppan for the #5 spot. I don't see the Brewers giving up on Bush and there isn't anything that the Brewers could get to replace Bush in a trade that will help them right now so trading Bush wouldn't be a good idea either. The amount of money that is owed to Bush is nothing and shouldn't even be in consideration for releasing him either. At the end of spring training I expect the rotation to look like this Gallardo, Wolf, Bush, Davis, Suppan with Narveson and Parra being in the bullpen yes that would mean three lefties in the bullpen.

 

The only player I see who could be in risk of being released would be Riske. If Riske is physically able to pitch but is not 100% healthy I could see the Brewers dumping Riske if they are not able to put him on the DL to start out the year. If the Brewers have to trade someone I believe it will be Narveson the Brewers won't be able to trade Suppan unless someone gets real desperate or if some GM gets Mooresyndrome (this is a very bad disease if you are a GM). I don't see Melvin trading either Bush or Parra because he knows that he will need both of those pitchers because one of the starters will get injured and it will probably be Suppan.

 

As far as Capuano as I stated before you can't really rely on him at all and I don't see him as being the #3 or #4 option out of Nashville. Butler is probably #1 followed by Villy being #2 with Bush, Parra, Suppan, and Narveson all being ahead of those two. The Brewers are going to need the starting pitching depth to compete. I could see at least one of Suppan, Bush, or Davis getting injured or aggravating an old injury.

[Invader3K]

Here are the actual numbers so far (thanks to Haudricourt on JSOnline):

 

RHP Dave Bush: 6 2/3 innings, 7 hits, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 2.70 ERA

LHP Chris Narveson: 5 innings, 1 hit, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 0 HR, 0.00 ERA

LHP Manny Parra: 7 innings, 6 hits, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 1.29 ERA

RHP Jeff Suppan: 9 innings, 12 hits, 7 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 5 HRs, 7.00

 

Can anyone really look at that and say Suppan deserves a rotation spot at this point?

[RobDeer 45]

Man I know it's still early but Soup can't really be in there can he?

 

My vote is for "El bandito y los cuatro zurdos!!!"

[JohnBriggs12]

Here are the actual numbers so far (thanks to Haudricourt on JSOnline):

 

RHP Dave Bush: 6 2/3 innings, 7 hits, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 2.70 ERA

LHP Chris Narveson: 5 innings, 1 hit, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 0 HR, 0.00 ERA

LHP Manny Parra: 7 innings, 6 hits, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 1.29 ERA

RHP Jeff Suppan: 9 innings, 12 hits, 7 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 5 HRs, 7.00

 

Can anyone really look at that and say Suppan deserves a rotation spot at this point?

Certainly not if it means losing 2 of the other 3. There's just so many variables. There just aren't many bullpen spots to park guys. Maybe 1 at the most. What would any of those guys bring in a deal? If the other 3 are clearly outperforming Suppan, he should be released. After all what's the point? The money has to be spent anyway.

 

It's seeming logical to have Narveson or Parra as the 2nd lefty in the pen, and go with a rotation of Gallardo, Wolf, Davis, Bush and Parra or Narveson. That would leave a bullpen of Narveson or Parra, Stetter, Hoffman, Coffey, Vargas, Hawkins and Villanueva. Maybe if Stetter doesn't come around, you might think about optioning him if you wanted to go with a Braddock or a Schoeneweis.

[Invader3K]

I'm just worried they'll come up with some lame reason to cut Bush in order to save his salary.

 

I'm wondering if instead they could talk to Bush and convince him to take a short stint in AAA, using "still recovering from his injury last season" as a public excuse. Then when Suppan or someone else inevitably falters, they call Bush up.

[RockCoCougars]

Here's what Macha had to say after Suppan gave up 4 HRs today and recorded 6 of his 10 outs on flyballs to the outfield, "He gave up four home runs and I thought maybe two of them were legit.”

 

At the beginning of spring it sounded like there might actually be a competition for the last two rotation spots, but it seems like the number 4 spot was Suppan's all along. Maybe I'm reading too deep into that quote, but it sounds to me like Macha is starting with the excuses to keep Suppan in the rotation and the season hasn't even started yet. I gave Suppan a lot of support last year and would love to see him succeed, but if you're in a competition to be in the rotation there should be no good excuse for giving up 4 HRs.

Come on, man. Soup was just pitching to his career norms....he's a fine innings eater/5th starter. Seriously, no way will this team unload Suppan. Macha seems to be quite the apologist for him. Instead of Soup, I'm going to start calling him 'The Coaches Kid', because he seems to be the only player in this organization who is not held accountable for poor performance. Bush is as good as gone, because they aren't going to pay him that kind of money to be a long reliever.