McGehee looking heavy -- Latest: John Sickels on McGehee's Career

[logan82]

I don't expect McGehee to be the Brewers long term solution at 3B, but if he plays well all this season at 3B and Gamel stays in AAA, I'm not going to cry about it.

 

Who has a problem with Gamel in AAA all season if McGehee plays well? I am certainly not going to "cry about it." If after a couple months in McGehee is hitting like many expect instead of how he hit last year and Gamel is raking in AAA, then I have a problem with McGehee at 3B. Right now I prefer Gamel but I fully expect McGehee to be the opening day starter at 3B.

[Invader3K]

FWIW, Haudricourt said on the D-List this afternoon that McGehee looks "good" and is "moving around well." He said his knee is fine at this point. Also said Rickie Weeks looks great, which has to be reassuring.

[pete]

Hardly hit in the minors? Is your standard premium prospect level? Setting aside the slugging, in order to be considered just good, not very good or excellent, do you need a .380 or .400 OBP? And yeah, that most definitely is an opinion. So is "decent" defensively.

[TooLiveBrew]

How are you defining "hitting in the minors"? Can you provide some examples of guys that OPS-ed in the mid-.700s in the minors & developed into solid, regular performers at the MLB level? Fwiw, year by year, McGehee's park-adjusted minor league OPSes were

 

2005: .767

2006: .727

2007: .730

2008: .754

He didn't SLG well, nor did he get on base well -- how is anyone off-base to say that he didn't hit well in the minors?

[logan82]

How are you defining "hitting in the minors"? Can you provide some examples of guys that OPS-ed in the mid-.700s in the minors & developed into solid, regular performers at the MLB level? Fwiw, year by year, McGehee's park-adjusted minor league OPSes were --

 

2005: .767

2006: .727

2007: .730

2008: .754

To me, those OPSse are just ok for an up the middle guy. Those are not numbers you want to see out of a corner guy, especially in the minors.

[homer]

The fact that he didn't slug well in the minors and then all of a sudden had a big spike his rookie year in the majors is a little befuddling. Maybe he just started eating Wheaties.

[pete]

Hey, don't move the goalposts. "Hardly" is the standard. I think most people would equate that around horrible or OPSing around .600. I also said "putting aside the slugging."

 

Again, what is an acceptable OBP? To hit well, does he need a .400 OBP? Are you thinking higher than that?

[TooLiveBrew]

His career park-adjusted minor league line is .278/.336/.409/.745. Like logan noted, that kind of line wouldn't even really inspire confidence in an 'up-the-middle' player (unless he were young for each MiLB level). Maybe endaround's word choice doesn't suit you, but there's a reason McGehee wasn't considered much of a prospect.

 

 

To hit well, does he need a .400 OBP? Are you thinking higher than that?

 

You seem to be arguing for the sake of arguing.

[logan82]

McGehee's numbers are worse or comparable to how Escobar hit in the minors the last 2 years. He doesn't play a defensive premium position with the potential to have elite defense like Escobar.

[Mass Haas]

Ideally, this would be linked in a separate thread from the "looking heavy" one, but other McGehee threads seemd too dated.

 

Minor league guru John Sickels with a look at Casey's past, present, future...

[RobDeer 45]

McGehee looks the exact same way he did last year. I stated he doesn't look like an athlete but to say he cam in to camp out of shape is wrong. That's how he looks!

 

It will be interesting to see how this all works out but Gamel just does not look like he can play 3rd base. Started off the spring season where he left off last year by taking one off his knee. I just really see him in another position. I do really want to see his bat in the lineup sooner then later though.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really feel the comments on Gamel being poor on defense are way overstated. He routinely shows plus range & a plus arm -- I think it looks like he can play 3B & play it well. So he takes a ball off his shin -- so what? Is that different from other defenders? Does it mean something more than McGehee making an error, or simply not having enough range to get to balls that Gamel can?

 

Imo this is something that just haunts Gamel. He was a bad defender, and now that stigma just follows him around -- whether it be from fans or prospect experts (who propagate this kind of labeling of players). Meanwhile, he has actually made fantastic strides with the leather, but I guess he's going to have to shed the label with a full season of solid D.

 

He was considered to be a decent line drive hitter with a workable glove, but questions about his power prevented him from rating as a top prospect.

This describes McGehee well even now. The fact that the Brewers want to give the player with lower upside more opportunity is what frustrates me about this situation.

McGehee thrived on fastballs and changeups' date=' but had some problems with sliders and curves. Expect major league pitches to throw more breaking stuff against him this year. The optimist in me sees a good-makeup guy who got a well-deserved change of scenery and made the most of it. The pessimist in me sees a guy who had his career season at age 26, producing number way out of bounds to what his MLEs would lead us to expect, and expects significant regression as the pitchers get used to him. His best OPS+ in the minors was +5; he was at +27 last year in the majors, which just screams fluke. That said, I think we'll need another 500 at-bats from Casey before we know exactly what we have here.

 

My guess is that he did make some legitimate progress, but that his numbers last year overstate matters. Expect regression to something like a .260/.320/.420 mark this year, but with improvement in his defensive metrics, assuming he hits enough to hold his job. I like to root for guys like this, and I hope he exceeds my expectation.[/quote']

I agree with absolutely everything stated here.

[LouisEly]

He routinely shows plus range & a plus arm

 

Not to hijack this thread, but you are right - Gamel does have plus range and a plus arm. He also has a minus glove and minus accuracy with his arm. I saw it when he was up last year. Can he change those two things? Maybe, maybe not; he's still relatively young, but I'm assuming he has been playing baseball for at least 15 years and after playing that much baseball for that long and still doesn't have an accurate arm or good hand/eye coordination with the glove I'm not sure that he ever will. I'm certainly willing to give him the opportunity to change that, however right now I think that is best done at AAA.

[filthyfrog]

The fact that the Brewers want to give the player with lower upside more opportunity is what frustrates me about this situation.

I think you'd have a point if Gamel was clearly ready for a big league job or if he was out of options, but he has plenty to work on in AAA. While his defense may or may not be improved, it's definitely a question mark. He has not been able to stay both healthy and productive for a full season over the last two years, and his K rate was downright alarming last year. I'm still a huge Gamel fan and I prefer him over McGehee as the long-term answer at 3B, but right now the obvious thing to do is give McGehee a chance to prove last year was no fluke and give Gamel a chance to play every day and get better. I don't see any reason to rush him to Milwaukee.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree that he should start the season in AAA. My concern is that if he shows he's ready for the bigs, is he going to get a fair shot with this organization?

[joepepsi]

I think Gamel will get his shot. If McGehee puts up the number Sickels' proposes, then he's decent trade bait. If Gamel hits well and shows he can play 3rd in AAA, then he's the everyday 3B in 2011. If McGehee is terrible in 2010, Gamel is called up by July at the latest.

[thebruce44]

I agree that he should start the season in AAA. My concern is that if he shows he's ready for the bigs, is he going to get a fair shot with this organization?

 

Other teams do this all the time. They let their players get much more complete in AAA than rushing them up to learn on the job. The Brewers were willing to let these guys grow in the majors in the past because they were not in a playoff hunt at all. If the guy has options, why not bring him up when he will be a more complete player from the start. Now if Gamel has nothing else to learn at AAA, then thats another story. I think the organization would cross that bridge when the time comes. I don't want to speculate or worry about it now though since its not the case.

[Ennder]

I think in the past they let young guys come up early to put fans in the seat more than because they weren't about winning. We brought up most of our prospects a little early during the rebuilding process.

[twobrewers]

Counsell improves and everyone is willing to credit Sveum for fixing his swing.

 

McGehee improves and everyone assumes it is a fluke. Honestly, I expect McGehee to regress - but I think the power was real. I expect 20 HRs if he plays a full season. A .800 OPS is possible.

 

Regarding Gamel, I spent a few years argueing with everyone that he wasn't just trade "fodder" - he was a legitmate prospect. In the past year, I think he might have gone from underrated to overrated. The Brewers were offering him around this winter and didn't get much interest. The "Macha ruined him" theory seems overstated. He was horrible after he went back down to AAA and was seeing regular playing time. Not to mention, his defense was never good to begin with.

 

He's a prospect. But I'd say McGehee is just as likely to have a successful MLB career as Gamel.

[rluzinski]

Counsell improves and everyone is willing to credit Sveum for fixing his swing.

 

Come on, now.

[Invader3K]

I just continue to go back to all the praise McGehee's swing and approach at the plate got last season. If he keeps up the same routine at the plate, I don't see why he should suddenly have a forty point drop in his batting average.

[HiAndTight]

I agree that he should start the season in AAA. My concern is that if he shows he's ready for the bigs, is he going to get a fair shot with this organization?

 

So to be fair, your frustration with the organization is because you're not sure what they'll do in the event that Gamel performs well in AAA and McGehee DOESN'T perform well in the big leagues?

[TooLiveBrew]

My frustration is because Gamel didn't get a legit shot when he should have last season -- he even hit well at the MLB level (league-avg for position as a rookie). It makes me concerned that, even if he takes care of his business, history could repeat itself.

[logan82]

Please please please don't make Gamel a bench player. I am sickened by the thought that they were even considering it. I am of course assuming McGehee had the starting job wrapped up before camp. My hope is for one of 2 things to happen. McGehe plays well or if he doesn't(not wishing he plays poorly) they bring up Gamel to start after a couple months.

 

Macha says that third-base prospect Mat Gamel still has a chance to make

the team

, but the Brewers could decide that Gamel would benefit from

more regular playing time at Triple-A Nashville and give the last spot

to Inglett, who has played in 211 Major League games over the past four

seasons and is more accustomed to a bench role.

[JohnBriggs12]

There's been so much discussion/angst/worry that McGehee will show considerable regression this year. Personally, I think he'll be fine.

 

But there's another guy in the division that is the exact same age as McGehee and also came out of nowhere to contend for the NL ROY award last year. He is being counted on even more heavily than McGehee is this year. That guy is Randy Wells of the Cubs. His numbers last year (12-10, 3.05 ERA) were totally out of line with his minor league numbers. This is a guy with a 4.28 AAA ERA and it's not like he got to AAA as a particularly young player. He was nearly 24 when he first appeared in AAA. This is a 38th round pick.

 

Cub fans, God bless em, all assume Wells will be the same guy in 2010 he was in 2009. Isn't it much more likely that Wells ERA will be closer to 4.50 if not higher?