McGehee looking heavy -- Latest: John Sickels on McGehee's Career

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So is Casey McGehee going to be what Tim Jarmusz was to the Badgers this year: everything that is wrong with the team we just blame him?

 

If Gamel proves he is a better 3B in Spring Training and maybe in the first part of his season in Nashville, he'll play. If he doesn't, then that probably means McGehee is playing pretty well. That sounds like a win-win situation to me.

[monty57]

I think there's no way Gamel can win the job out of Spring Training, and I believe that the Brewers will keep him down in Nashville to try to get back the year of service time they robbed themselves of last year. Unfortunately, Gamel is going to be the one who loses out in all of this. At best, he'll be a free agent at 29 or 30, when he was supposedly the top prospect in the organization, and one of Melvin's "untouchables."

[JohnBriggs12]

It's obvious that people on this board want the guys who they have targeted since A ball to succeed over waiver claim pickups that they are simply not objective about it.

 

The fact is, producing at the major league level takes more than just talent. That Casey McGehee wasn't this big time prospect doesn't make his production last year a fluke. Because he was stuck behind Aramis Ramirez, he got 3 years at AAA to hone his skills. A lot of guys don't have that opportunity. Not only did he hone his skills to the point he could hit major league pitching, he proved that he wasn't the least bit overwhelmed by the big stage. The comparison to Tim Jarmusz is a joke. Jarmusz has never produced on the Big Ten level. McGehee has produced on the major league level.

 

The nerdy statheads who are predicting this huge dropoff in McGehee's production base it on stats that if you watched him are quite meaningless. They say, he hit fastballs at high rate so pitchers will adjust to that and throw him more breaking balls. What I saw last year was a guy who could lay off breaking balls out of the zone and force pitchers to come in with fastballs. Macha's talked about hitting him 2nd, behind Escobar and Weeks and ahead of Braun and Fielder. Now I'm not the brightest guy around, but what pitcher with Braun and Fielder's spot in the order coming up is going to feel comfortable feeding breaking balls to the guy ahead of them no matter how good a fastball hitter he is? They also point to a high BABIP rate for a guy who hits a lot of flyballs. But what I saw was many of those "flyballs" were line drive rockets hit at outfielders. He had a high BABIP rate because he centered his bat on the ball.

 

That's not to say there aren't things McGehee has to watch out for. He needs to avoid falling into the trap of trying to be more patient of a hitter especially if he's batting 2nd. He had success last year aggressively swinging at hittable pitches early in counts. He should keep that approach. That works for him. He's got a good enough eye that if he avoids swinging at pitches off the plate, he'll get his share of walks.

[Menace II Sobriety]

It's obvious that people on this board want the guys who they have targeted since A ball to succeed over waiver claim pickups that they are simply not objective about it.

Of course people root for Gamel he has been a top prospect for years, if you take out his pinch hitting duties from last year which we all can agree is a tough assignment for a rookie he was a league average third baseman as a rookie. There is no way that Melvin can know that a guy like Casey will become available, make the team, and put up stats like he did. If he had no intentions in giving Gamel a true shot at the position he should have traded him instead of LaPorta as you remember Gamel, Escobar, & Salome were off limits. Now Salome has lost some of his luster and Gamel has lost all of his. In theory they could have traded Salome and Gamel and had LaPorta and Brantley in the OF this year.

 

Back to the point people aren't rooting against Casey but they have invested years in following Gamel and want to see it come to fruition. Remember how people were following every Inman start a few years ago as he was dominating High A.

[Invader3K]

Exactly. People on this site tend to get married to "their guys", and seem to be against anyone from outside the organization getting an opportunity, or even seeing them outplay their heralded Brewers system "up & comers."

 

The outcry over Inman getting traded was a bit over the top for me. Looking at how he has done since then, I think the complaining was rather unwarranted.

[homer]

I think people weren't so much upset at trading Inman, but the fact that we traded two good arms for a three month rental of a middle reliever.

[Ennder]

I just don't think his BABIP or large spike in ISO is likely to be repeatable. When his ISO drops back to his minor league levels and his BABIP drops 20 points he is suddenly a .750ish OPS player which i think is more likely his true talent. Has nothing to do with me liking him or not.

 

When a 26 year old career minor league player comes up and puts up numbers way better than he ever did in the minors I don't think there is something wrong with assuming he won't keep it up. When you are looking at your expectations for him for 2010 please be fair and keep in mind he has a career OPS of .741 in the minors and his highest OPS any single year was .776 in AA. It is very unlikely that he approaches last years numbers again, not impossible but certainly unlikely.

 

McGehee had a great hot streak in the middle of the season where he put up a 1.139 OPS over a 26 game stretch. He had a .609 OPS before the hot streak and a .796 OPS after the hot streak. If he doesn't have that huge hot streak again this year or if he gets more AB to hide it better he just isn't going to repeat last year.

[TheCrew07]

Exactly. People on this site tend to get married to "their guys", and seem to be against anyone from outside the organization getting an opportunity, or even seeing them outplay their heralded Brewers system "up & comers."

 

The outcry over Inman getting traded was a bit over the top for me. Looking at how he has done since then, I think the complaining was rather unwarranted.

I think Invader's comments here pretty well sum up many similar themes so instead of quoting everyone and responding to individual quotes I'll simply respond here this.

 

First off, it irks me when people don't consider an alternative point of view and just summarily dismiss the idea. I'm not saying anyone should agree with everything or anything that is posted, but I think we should read what is posted even if we don't agree and at least put some effort into understanding what was written. I'm well aware that I invite criticism by going my own way and forming controversial opinions, that's just how I roll... I take in all of the information I can find and then make my own conclusions. I haven't seen anyone in this thread post anything about Gamel being their guy so he should get the job, that's a pure fabrication. Many of us that follow the minors will have our guys, for example I'm pulling very hard for Rogers for Rivas, Hardy was one of my boys as is Parra. I've been very critical of Parra, in fact you'll find that I'm pretty consistent and transparent, I say exactly what I mean and what I think about every player, good or bad. I play with kid gloves on the minor league forum for the most part because friends and family do read the site, but I don't pull any punches on the MLB side. Using Para as an example, Parra is extremely talented, but he's running out of opportunities with this organization to find himself as a MLB pitcher. I'll root very hard for him but I'm also going to be realistic about the situation, and difference I think between Suppan/Bush vs Parra and Gamel vs McGehee is that Parra was given every opportunity to succeed while Gamel hasn't.

 

I've said this literally dozens of times on this site, but I'll say it again. No one is saying that Gamel will be the better MLB player between the 2, but he's obviously the more talented player who has the greatest upside. Some around here mistake criticism of the way he was handled by the organization as favoritism on the poster's part. That's not what I read, what I read is many posts about wasting service time riding the bench and an equal opportunity to win a position. It's quite clear that many including Macha were bothered by how Gamel approached ST last year, TH has been more than happy to beat that drum. What I want and would ask for is that Gamel be given an equal opportunity to succeed, which he clearly wasn't last season. Mat has the potential to hit near Braun's level if he gets it.... his ceiling is far beyond Casey's. If Casey proves to be a better MLB player then so be it, Mat didn't make the most of his ability. I just have a hard time jumping on the bandwagon of players who possess limited ceilings and burst through with a big season at MLB. It has nothing to do with being a fan of Gamel, it has everything to do with the Brewers maximizing the talent at the MLB level.

 

The other side of this argument is old, tired, and has been beat to death, and I'm surprised it keeps coming back around because it is really simple. There are some posts in the middle but generally speaking either people want to win right now or are concerned about the long term health of the organization as a whole. Those who care about the long term health of the organization aren't prospect mongers we simply don't want talent wasted on temporary solutions. It was never about Inman or LaPorta, it was about the realistic impact of the acquisition. We need to trade players in that there is no doubt, but I would question the return on many of the deals including Lopez last season. As many people said at the time, Lopez didn't make us a playoff team, and in that regard the move was a complete waste of assets. Forget about Gillespie and Mercedes, forget the names, wrap your mind around the value.... we gave away prospects for a 2B when the rotation was in shambles and the team wasn't going anywhere with or without the player we acquired. Was 2B the problem, or the rotation? Melvin's moves have been very predictable in nature, no one should be surprised by the pitching situation we found ourselves in. It was very simple, without acquiring a long term solution last season was going to completely hinge on Yo and Parra, and really nothing has changed going into this season. I am surprised by those who supported trading for Sabathia and keeping Hardy who have criticized the rotation at all, because we witnessed the end result of those moves. There is no having it both ways, we weren't going to be able to acquire rental players and make an off season move with more prospects, there just aren't enough prospects in the system for that now, and dumping prospects in unnecessary trades has had an impact on our depth at the upper levels of the system.

 

I have no desire to revisit the Fielder debates in terms of weight and production, it doesn't take a very well trained eye to make judgments about weight, it's fairly easy to do. I think McGehee definitely looks heavier and I'm disappointed, in the same way I was disappointed when it looked like Sheets was getting heavier, or Fielder going into 2008. It may or may not effect production at the plate, but adding weight without adding muscle only slows an athlete down, and I don't care what sport you play, that's not a good thing, so I'm disappointed. Maybe it's unfair of me but I expect all professional players, but especially players of limited physical gifts to have a work ethic like Brady Clark, and if the baggy uniforms covered up his belly last year I would have expected McGehee to show up in better shape this year in order to prove his season wasn't a fluke, especially since he had to rehabilitate his knee. It seems like every year I deal with a young man who had moderate success at the varsity level and wants to coast because he thinks he's arrived, it's my pet peeve with young high school athletes, so I'm certainly going to be unhappy when professionals seem to exhibit the same behavior. McGehee had a fantastic break out season, the first of his career, and the Brewers desperately need resolution of the hole at 3B, but with Gamel's struggles at the end of the season last year and McGehee not looking very fit, I'm apprehensive about the situation at this time. Maybe it's nothing, but it could be something, it was just a statement regarding an observation I had made.

 

If anyone has a problem with McGehee getting the most out of his talent then I have a problem with that, because all we can ask of any player is that they maximize their potential. In fact I personally view that as the best compliment that can be said about anyone... athlete or not, there is no greater accomplishment than maximizing your potential. He maximized his talent for 1 season, now the question becomes can repeat that level of success and make a career out of it. I like both players, but I think that McGehee will be given the job because he received the first opportunity and had success, not because he's the best possible option for the Brewers at that position. I have zero faith in Macha to let any young player grow into their role so my concern stretches beyond the Gamel situation, I'm also concerned about CF, C, and SS. Our team is going to have to be constantly adding young pieces as they mature, the Brewers will likely never be a veteran club year in and year out, and I have no faith in the current regime to do what best for the players, which in turn is what's best for the long term health of the organization, last season crushed my faith in that regard.

 

So once again, it's not about prospects or favoring young players, it's about maximizing the talent possible for the MLB team. Gamel hasn't had that same opportunity to succeed that McGehee has had.... I'll concede that it's quite possibly mostly his own doing, maybe he was immature as TH suggested, I don't know. I'm not sure that I would make decisions on playing time based solely on maturity and I believe in open competition as I think it brings out the best in ahtletes... that's where I'm coming from.

[logan82]

Because he was stuck behind Aramis Ramirez, he got 3 years at AAA to hone his skills.

 

He wasn't "stuck" behind Ramirez. McGehee hardly hit in the minors. There was little reason to expect him to be a starter. Iribarren for example put up number better than McGehee's best year in the minors and we don't expect him to be anything more than a bench player if that.

 

People on this site tend to get married to "their guys", and seem to be against anyone from outside the organization getting an opportunity, or even seeing them outplay their heralded Brewers system "up & comers."

 

Why isn't there a big outcry for Cain or Schaefer then? Gomez has stunk in his time in the Majors. There are people who think we could have filled CF in with Cain and Gerut(myself included) and made a better deal with Hardy but nobody is calling for anybody to start ahead of Gomez.

 

Like Ender said, the projections for McGehee are pretty low. Many people just think Gamel could do better.

[Invader3K]

Cain was injured most of last season. How was he possibly going to be ready to play Opening Day 2010?

[logan82]

He isn't hurt now. He should be ready to start the season.

[Invader3K]

He isn't hurt now. He should be ready to start the season.

I meant "MLB ready", despite not having played most of last year, and barely having any time in at AAA?

[endaround]

Because he was stuck behind Aramis Ramirez, he got 3 years at AAA to hone his skills.

 

He wasn't "stuck" behind Ramirez. McGehee hardly hit in the minors. There was little reason to expect him to be a starter. Iribarren for example put up number better than McGehee's best year in the minors and we don't expect him to be anything more than a bench player if that.

 

People on this site tend to get married to "their guys", and seem to be against anyone from outside the organization getting an opportunity, or even seeing them outplay their heralded Brewers system "up & comers."

 

Why isn't there a big outcry for Cain or Schaefer then? Gomez has stunk in his time in the Majors. There are people who think we could have filled CF in with Cain and Gerut(myself included) and made a better deal with Hardy but nobody is calling for anybody to start ahead of Gomez.

 

Like Ender said, the projections for McGehee are pretty low. Many people just think Gamel could do better.

I am. I still don't get why the Twins didn't send Gomez down last year.

[battlekow]

I think people weren't so much upset at trading Inman, but the fact that we traded two good arms for a three month rental of a middle reliever.

Three (potentially) good arms!

[pete]

McGehee definitely looks heavier

I think he looked heavier last year. I don't buy that he's being given special treatment over Gamel. And for all you know, the team could be maximizing its resources. They may plan on trading McGehee at some point or view him as the best backup for Weeks. I'm a huge Gamel fan, but if he spends time in AAA, the Earth won't stop spinning. I've wasted time defending him as a potential MLBer as a lot of the stat oriented types don't even think he can play much in the majors. The arguments that McGehee is almost certainly somewhere between mediocre and a future failure are thinly supported. There's a good chance that they both succeed.

[trwi7]

I meant "MLB ready", despite not having played most of last year, and barely having any time in at AAA?

You could easily make the argument that Gomez isn't MLB ready either. That's kind of the point. If you wanted a good defender that wasn't going to hit, why not go with Cain or Schafer?

 

 

[logan82]

Obviously everybody is entitled to their opinion. I just think it is off base to say the anybody who doesn't think McGehee should start over Gamel or that McGehee isn't likely to hit like he did last year is showing favoritism to "their guys." Talking to your average baseball fan I think you might be right.(Of course the average baseball fan would probably pick McGehee.) You may get that feeling but there is plenty to suggest last year won't happen again or the chance it does is pretty small. I tend to give the posters the benefit of the doubt on their analysis being at least mostly objective. That doesn't mean we will come to the same opinion.

 

I am. I still don't get why the Twins didn't send Gomez down last year.

 

Just to clarify, I am assuming you mean Gerut starting over Gomez.

[endaround]

Yep, I'd take Gerut over Gomez at this point or at least until Gomez gets his offensive game together in AAA. No reason to burn a year of service time on Gomez for no real benefit.

[pete]

Its tough to read whether posters are trying to be objective or are being sarcastic or argumentative. Individual opinions are by definition subjective which isn't inherently a negative. I think you'll have a hard time getting much agreement that CM's defense was "really poor" and that he hardly hit in the minors. Its natural to wonder why someone would make those statements.

[endaround]

He did hardly hit in the minors. I'm not sure why that's an opinion. He was thought to be decent defensively so most think his injury screwed him up last year but no one knows what that means going forward.

[jazzytrav]

Exactly. People on this site tend to get married to "their guys", and seem to be against anyone from outside the organization getting an opportunity, or even seeing them outplay their heralded Brewers system "up & comers."

 

The outcry over Inman getting traded was a bit over the top for me. Looking at how he has done since then, I think the complaining was rather unwarranted.

There was an original outcry because it was a pretty big deal at the time, but I remember that thread calming down pretty quickly. I wasn't around here before Overbay got traded, but I can't imagine anyone was too disappointed with his play or annoyed by him for "taking" Fielder's spot.

 

There's nothing wrong with questioning a guy that was never a very good hitter and then all of a sudden becomes a stud in the majors. If he wants to hold on to that spot, though, I'm guessing that coming to spring training out of shape isn't the smartest decision.

 

Someone crunch up some doritos over his salad; he'll be fine.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Link

 

Those are McGehee's minor league stats. They are not particularly impressive in any way, even when park-adjusted. He was old(er) for most levels, and never posted even an .800 OPS. His UZR/150 in 2009 was -17.7 (with 0.0 being average) -- but he has the reputation of being a solid or average defender, so I'm assuming his knee really limited him on defense. I'd expect average defense from him at 3B when healthy. 2009 was his first season of displaying any kind of above-average hitting ability, so regardless of what his name is, or who might be competing with him for the 3B job, I am wary of believing that 2009 unveiled his true talent level.

 

 

Link

 

Those are Gamel's minor league stats (be sure to click on "Career Stats" for a direct season-by-season comparison). Even when you park-adjust, he's had far better success as a hitter, and has been younger than McGehee at every level. In a very tiny sample, Gamel's MLB UZR/150 in '09 was -2.7. He has the reputation for having been bad in terms of his footwork on defense, but has a plus arm & plus range. He appeared to show progress on defense from '08 to '09, and certainly flashed both plus tools at the MLB level. The jury is still out on his defense, but I believe his tools will translate as he works more & more, esp. with Willie Randolph.

 

 

Aside from my opinions on their defense (& the defensive reputations both players have), and my concern over whether or not '09 showed McGehee's new true talent level, everything I posted above is simple fact, and freely available to anyone that wants to seek it out. When *I* examine the two players, I believe Gamel will be the better player because I see a lot of evidence to back that up. It's not about 'hating' McGehee, it's about how I interpret their production to date combined with their physical tools.

[Invader3K]

I've seen exactly one picture that possibly demonstrates McGehee came to camp "heavier." But look at some other pics where he's in uniform, he looks pretty much exactly the same to me as he did last season. Of course all of this is negated by the fact he probably had a somewhat tough time staying in shape after having knee surgery. I don't expect McGehee to be the Brewers long term solution at 3B, but if he plays well all this season at 3B and Gamel stays in AAA, I'm not going to cry about it. I suspect others on here will have a different opinion, though.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think McGehee looks just like he did last season too.

 

 

I don't expect McGehee to be the Brewers long term solution at 3B, but if he plays well all this season at 3B and Gamel stays in AAA, I'm not going to cry about it. I suspect others on here will have a different opinion, though.

 

I'd be very pleasantly surprised if Macha ranks Gamel ahead of McGehee, but I doubt that will happen. I'm certainly not going to "cry about it." The way I expect things to play out this season is for McGehee to be the starting 3B, with Gamel at AAA. I think McGehee will hit closer to a .750 OPS & Gamel will eventually be called up to replace him as the starter at 3B.

[joepepsi]

I was the first poster in this topic (reply #3) to state it's unlikely Casey will repeat his 2009 offense, so let me be clear on where I stand. I'm not cheering against the guy. Probably my favorite aspect of the game is when these career minor leaguers finally get a chance and make the most of it. In that regard, Casey's season was the story of the year for me.

 

But you have to be realistic. Doug has always been great at finding these waiver wire/ freely available players. Brady Clark, Pods, Helms, Gintner, Turnbow, they all broke through and had at least a couple good years. Then, inevitably they fade away or find their way playing off the bench as journeymen for a few years. There's no shame in that. I believe there are lots of minor leaguers capable of playing in the majors if they only got their shot. Casey minor league career compares closely to these guys, not to some near All Star caliber 3rd baseman, which is kinda the way he hit last year. Maybe he truly has broken out; if so, I'm all for it. But to assume he's going to play like he did in 2009 for years to come is to assume he will defy the odds in a big way. It's been done before, but counting on it happening again is not a good plan.