Prince to Baltimore (off-season proposal)

[NievesNoNO]

Could anybody see Baltimore willing to pony up for Prince. I like what the Orioles have done in recent years and they're probably not in much a better position to sign him long term, but eventually if they want to make a run at that division they're going to need some fire power. I could maybe see them interested if their young pitching shows solid developement this year and they feel like they're close. They have a good young core now with Markakis, Jones, Wieters and their young arms. Prince bombing shots off the warehouse for a few years might be kind of appealing. Cot's has their payroll around 67 mil. for the upcoming season so there might be room to add.

 

Prince for Arrieta, Britton, and Josh Bell? Thoughts?

[logan82]

That would be really stupid on Baltimore's part. They are more than one player away from competing in that division.

[nate82]

Broken record warning here. But I believe Texas or Boston would be the ideal teams to trade Prince to. Texas more so than Boston since the Rangers have more to offer than what Boston could offer. A Smoak + deal could work out real well for both the Brewers and the Rangers. The Rangers if they could sign Prince long term would be the heavy favorites in the AL West for the next 3-6 years. If the Brewers could get Smoak/Feliz along with one of the younger arms that the Rangers have would be a great deal plus if the Rangers put Smoak into a deal I doubt there is a team in MLB that could compete with the package that the Rangers could put forward for the Brewers.

 

A trade of Smoak, Perez, and Font would be a huge haul for the Brewers I'm not sure if the Brewers could get that for Prince but I believe it would be close. I don't think the Brewers will be able to get both Feliz and Smoak in a deal and I think Feliz maybe off limits. Also I don't see Chris Davis being anything more than a guy who could hit a lot of home runs but he is going to strike out a ton way more than he should he has no plate discipline at all. I wouldn't include Chris Davis into any discussion when trading Prince to the Rangers.

 

 

[JohnBriggs12]

That would be really stupid on Baltimore's part. They are more than one player away from competing in that division.

It would be even more stupid on the Brewers part. I'm not overly impressed by any of those 3. Bell hasn't hit as well as Gamel and he's nearly as bad defensively at 3B. Britton has some promise but he hasn't pitched above A ball so he's no sure thing. Arrieta's not all that young (he turns 24 next week), and he had just so-so numbers in half a season at AAA.

[TooLiveBrew]

Bell hasn't hit as well as Gamel and he's nearly as bad defensively at 3B.

 

Could you link to a scouting report on Bell, esp. regarding his defense? I'm really not familiar with him at all.

[dadofandrew]

BAL won't want Prince for a year. The market for Fielder will be limited to big market teams, and very likely AL teams.

[Kelbysdaddy]

i've been on the prince to texas bandwagon for a long time now. i think if it was just smoak and feliz i would take take the deal. texas is really deep on young pitching, even with feliz at the front of their stock they wouldnt be all that hurt if they were to deal him

[logan82]

BAL won't want Prince for a year. The market for Fielder will be limited to big market teams, and very likely AL teams.

 

or teams that think they are close to making the playoffs.

[NievesNoNO]

dadofandrew[/b]]BAL won't want Prince for a year. The market for Fielder will be limited to big market teams, and very likely AL teams.

No Baltimore won't want him for a year. I wouldn't think any team would give up anything for 1 year. I'm more questioning whether or not they'd have/want to give the money to sign him and stop him from entering free agency. At this point I'm wondering if any team will be willing to give up the prospects and shell out enough money to stop him from the bidding. I'm staring to think the Brewers will not get enough in return and might just play out the contract and let him walk for the picks after next year.

 

Josh Bell from BaseballAmerica.com.

 

 

[804Sox]

Broken record warning here. But I believe Texas or Boston would be the ideal teams to trade Prince to. Texas more so than Boston since the Rangers have more to offer than what Boston could offer. A Smoak + deal could work out real well for both the Brewers and the Rangers. The Rangers if they could sign Prince long term would be the heavy favorites in the AL West for the next 3-6 years. If the Brewers could get Smoak/Feliz along with one of the younger arms that the Rangers have would be a great deal plus if the Rangers put Smoak into a deal I doubt there is a team in MLB that could compete with the package that the Rangers could put forward for the Brewers.

 

A trade of Smoak, Perez, and Font would be a huge haul for the Brewers I'm not sure if the Brewers could get that for Prince but I believe it would be close. I don't think the Brewers will be able to get both Feliz and Smoak in a deal and I think Feliz maybe off limits. Also I don't see Chris Davis being anything more than a guy who could hit a lot of home runs but he is going to strike out a ton way more than he should he has no plate discipline at all. I wouldn't include Chris Davis into any discussion when trading Prince to the Rangers.

 

I don't know if you could get Smoak and Perez. I think a deal of Prince to Texas would likely involve one of Feliz or Smoak, plus one or two prospects from the Kiker, Ross, Font, Borbon, Scheppers group.

 

On the other hand, if the Rangers are confident that Smoak is going to be a stud (which I am, personally), then why not just stick with him? This team is set up to peak in 2-4 years, at which point they may not have Fielder or be able to afford him.

[nate82]

?

I don't know if you could get Smoak and Perez.? I think a deal of Prince to Texas would likely involve one of Feliz or Smoak, plus one or two prospects from the Kiker, Ross, Font, Borbon, Scheppers group.

 

On the other hand, if the Rangers are confident that Smoak is going to be a stud (which I am, personally), then why not just stick with him?? This team is set up to peak in 2-4 years, at which point they may not have Fielder or be able to afford him.

Perez isn't really a sure thing he has a lot of control problems but the talent is there it is just will he ever get the control of his pitches.? Also he has some delivery issues in tipping off his pitches especially his change up that needs to be fixed though he is a young player and that can be fixed.? Perez is about 2-4 years away.? If the Rangers wanted to win this year and the next year Prince would definitely help in that not to mention Hamilton is getting older.? So it is the question do the Rangers go for it now or wait 2-4 years or longer.? I believe the Rangers could definitely afford Prince they would just have to decide on Prince or Hamilton.

 

Forgot to add the video of Perez where you can see he is somewhat tipping off his pitches.

[JohnBriggs12]

Bell hasn't hit as well as Gamel and he's nearly as bad defensively at 3B.

 

Could you link to a scouting report on Bell, esp. regarding his defense? I'm really not familiar with him at all.

I don't need a scouting report to tell me that 88 errors in 334 minor league games at third and a career .897 fielding percentage aren't the numbers good fielders put up. He's pretty "Gamel like" in that he was horrendous in 2007, when he made 38 errors in 108 games and he's improved from awful to well below average since.

 

I don't have a link but baseball-reference has the numbers.

[joepepsi]

I expect Seattle to make a push for Prince. They are one of the richest franchises and Jack Z ain't afraid of going for it.

 

Baltimore was my favorite team as a kid, so I'd like to see them try and sign Prince. They wouldn't do a trade though. They are a lot richer than they let on, so if things go well this year and attendance gets back up a bit, they may try and sign Prince after 2011. Brian Roberts is the only big contract they have, so their payroll will stay down for at least the next couple of years.

[804Sox]

Perez isn't really a sure thing he has a lot of control problems but the talent is there it is just will he ever get the control of his pitches.? Also he has some delivery issues in tipping off his pitches especially his change up that needs to be fixed though he is a young player and that can be fixed.? Perez is about 2-4 years away.? If the Rangers wanted to win this year and the next year Prince would definitely help in that not to mention Hamilton is getting older.? So it is the question do the Rangers go for it now or wait 2-4 years or longer.? I believe the Rangers could definitely afford Prince they would just have to decide on Prince or Hamilton.

I think we have many of the same concerns with Perez. My reason for excluding him from the trade scenario was not that he is or should be untouchable. Instead, it was that he's too valuable to be included as the second chip along with Smoak or Feliz, but possibly not valuable enough to be the centerpiece of a trade for Prince. Just a hunch on my part, I guess.

 

As far as the Rangers having 2 potential windows, you may be right. I personally just don't think they have the pitching to win a championship now, and don't think Fielder is the difference that gets them there over some combination of Davis and a young Smoak. It's just my opinion that they'd be better off waiting and keeping the prospects though. Also, their finances are a mess, and they might not be able to take on Fielder's salary (or sign him down the road, which would be the other option)

 

It's strange. Fielder is a great player, but in all of the trades we've discussed over the past 6 months, I have yet to see a really ideal fit.

 

Edit: I think I would be selling Perez short to say that he does not have enough value to be the centerpiece in a deal for Prince. He definitely could be, but I think: 1) The Brewers would ask for Feliz or Smoak, and 2) The Rangers would certainly have to give up a 3rd player in a deal involving Perez+, and possibly a 4th.

[NievesNoNO]

804Sox[/b] wrote:[/b]

 

It's strange. Fielder is a great player, but in all of the trades we've discussed over the past 6 months, I have yet to see a really ideal fit.

I agree. I think the best deal for Fielder might be had at the trade deadline as opposed to the off-season. The issue is that hopefully the Brewers are (and they should be) competitive enough to be in contention for a play-off spot. I think we'll be hard pressed to flush out any major prospect for Fielder in the off-season for a one year rental. Especially, when they can just buy him after the season and give nothing. However, teams get more desperate/hopeful near the end of the season and can be more willing to part with some of their young talent when they're closer to the end of the season. I'm really starting to feel that if the Brewers are confident in their scouting dept. they may as well just keep him 2 seasons and take the comp. picks when he leaves.

[TooLiveBrew]

JohnBriggs12]

Bell hasn't hit as well as Gamel and he's nearly as bad defensively at 3B.

 

Could you link to a scouting report on Bell, esp. regarding his defense? I'm really not familiar with him at all.

I don't need a scouting report to tell me that 88 errors in 334 minor league games at third and a career .897 fielding percentage aren't the numbers good fielders put up. He's pretty "Gamel like" in that he was horrendous in 2007, when he made 38 errors in 108 games and he's improved from awful to well below average since.

 

I don't have a link but baseball-reference has the numbers.

From NievesNoNO's link:

The good news, aside from Bell’s ability to rake as a lefthanded hitter, is that his defense has improved significantly since last season. While there were concerns about Bell’s size and ability to remain at third base coming into the year, scouts have noted that Bell appears to have slimmed down and improved his fielding.

Managers voted Bell the best defensive third baseman in the Southern League, as he has an above-average arm, decent range and did a better job of making the routine play this season.

Bell has become one of the best third base prospects in the game. All that’s left for him to do is figure out how to hit southpaws, be it from the left or right side of the plate.

 

Relying on errors, especially at the minor league level, is a poor way to evaluate defenders

[logan82]

Relying on errors, especially at the minor league level, is a poor way to evaluate defenders

 

With the fields not as good and the official scorers even more uneven than at the MLB level I would have to agree.

[endaround]

I think people are way overvaluing what Fielder will bring. He'll be paid close to what he's worth on a one year deal and its unlikely that he'll give the receiving team a discount or even a chance to sign him to a long term contract before the season. Why should the Rangers give up 6 years of Smoak for one of Fielder? I think a plus AA arm and a guy with upside is what you'll get, ie what you get in the draft minus having to pay signing bonuses when Fielder declines arbitration.

[804Sox]

I think people are way overvaluing what Fielder will bring. He'll be paid close to what he's worth on a one year deal and its unlikely that he'll give the receiving team a discount or even a chance to sign him to a long term contract before the season. Why should the Rangers give up 6 years of Smoak for one of Fielder? I think a plus AA arm and a guy with upside is what you'll get, ie what you get in the draft minus having to pay signing bonuses when Fielder declines arbitration.

I agree to a certain extent. I think that Fielder would necessarily return one really good prospect - someone on the level of LaPorta when he was traded for CC. I, personally, would not give up Smoak for him as the Rangers, but they type of return is conceivable. That said, he's not going to return a Texeira-type package for the reason you indicate. It's important not to forget that Atlanta thought they had a really good shot at signing him to a home-town discount when they acquired him (GT guy), but obviously a club-friendly extension never materialized. I can't envision a scenario where Fielder doesn't hit free agency unless he resigns with the Brewers.

[JohnBriggs12]

This thread is the example for the argument for keeping Fielder for 2 more years, and if he turns down your offer and goes elsewhere, so be it. You take the draft pick and you use the money saved to upgrade somewhere else. Fielder isn't worth much in trade for the several reasons. Most teams couldn't sign him either and would be in the same boat as the Brewers. He plays 1B where most teams that have money already have a potent bat, so they aren't going to empty their system of top pitchers for a bit of an upgrade.

[JohnBriggs12]

Relying on errors, especially at the minor league level, is a poor way to evaluate defenders

 

With the fields not as good and the official scorers even more uneven than at the MLB level I would have to agree.

Then we can completely ignore the 50+ errors that Gamel made in 2007 as they are not at all indicative of his defensive abilities? Apparently it was the fields and official scorers in the Southern Atlantic league that were the problem?

 

I think to ignore errors and fielding percentage is ludicrous. Good fielders don't make as many errors as bad fielders. Sure there's more to it than error totals, but as a rule that statement can't be disputed. In 2007, Gamel's fielding percentage was .826. Bell's was a little better but still not good .869. In the Southern League in 2008, Gamel improved to .919. In the same league last year, with the same fields and the same official scorers, Bell was .929 again slightly better. So both improved considerably in the Southern League. Some of that might have to do with better fields (though minor league field maintenance in general isn't nearly the issue it was 30-40 years ago as minor leagues have become much more refined as businesses) and softer official scoring.

 

We know that most of the time Gamel looks decent at 3B, makes some tough plays and has as strong arm. From purely a scouting standpoint, he passes the eyeball test as I'm sure Bell does. That's one the reason the Brewers seem reluctant to move Gamel. But that doesn't make a guy better than average or even adequate until they prove over time that they have cut down the number of errors. Both may well have the ability to be adequate defensively based on their tools, with a very slight edge to Bell based on slightly better fielding percentages at all levels. But that doesn't make them good right now. That's all I'm saying, and offensively, I think you have to give the nod to Gamel. So why would the Brewers be interested in what they already have?

[TooLiveBrew]

I think to ignore errors and fielding percentage is ludicrous.

 

Advanced defensive metrics don't -- but the way you often present a fielder as bad or good, based solely on fielding percentage, is an inaccurate method.

[TheCrew07]

Then we can completely ignore the 50+ errors that Gamel made in 2007 as they are not at all indicative of his defensive abilities? Apparently it was the fields and official scorers in the Southern Atlantic league that were the problem?

 

I think to ignore errors and fielding percentage is ludicrous. Good fielders don't make as many errors as bad fielders. Sure there's more to it than error totals, but as a rule that statement can't be disputed.

Really? Hmm... Jeter had 56 Errors in A ball as a SS in 1993, he's the most obvious case off the top of my head of someone who was horrible at a premium defensive position and turned out pretty good. Does it happen often? No, but it's not like if a player struggles in the minors he's a lost cause either. You're fond of these blanket statements and while I don't mind using fielding percentage as part of an argument, when it's your whole argument the argument is hollow at best. Gamel clearly has the physical tools to be an above average defender, he has a very good first step, a decent glove, and a very good arm... It's also obvious that he has many bad habits to overcome. He may never be a good infielder, but his fielding percentage isn't predictive of his future, it's descriptive of his past.

 

I can take just as many shots at Casey McGehee... who was horrid in the field last year. He has much lower upside than Gamel and looks like he put on 15 pounds (I'm sure I'm not the only one given pause by McGehee in the photos from JSOnline?), and not in a good way. Even if it was just Casey's knee that caused all his problems, he's a scratch defender at best, he's been that his entire career, but after a knee injury and weight gain, how nimble is he going to be in the field?

 

Gamel may be an immature young man who got bye solely on his talent until last year, I don't know enough about him on a personal level to offer an opinion so I'll concede the worst case as it would explain the lack of improvement until he began working with Money in AA... maybe TH has been absolutely correct about Gamel... no idea. That being said, just because that may be who Gamel was, doesn't mean that's all he'll ever be. I really struggle with people being so down on Gamel and suddenly anointing McGehee as the savior of the 3B situation. Gamel has the potential to be a plus player in every aspect of his game but speed.... He'll hit for plus power, plus average, he has a plus arm, and he has the potential to be a plus defender, along with a pretty decent BB rate.... McGehee might be able to hit for plus average, but that's about it. I like McGehee as a player, in the end he may turn out to be the better MLB player, I just don't get infatuation with a guy who's a 1 year wonder without a track record at this point and I'm extremely disappointed in his appearance at the start of camp.

[logan82]

For the record, McGehee looked just as chubby last year in my opinion.

[endaround]

Given that Jeter has been a terrible defensive shortstop until last season not sure you want to use him as an example.