It's not really Baseball Season till a Cubs pitcher is hurt....

[berniebrewer4life]

http://sports.espn.go.com...lb/news/story?id=4925182

 

I know we joke about them always being injured, but seriously, it's not even Spring Training yet.

[Invader3K]

A lot of the Cubs are getting somewhat long in the tooth. I think they're going to have a bad season.

[berniebrewer4life]

A lot of the Cubs are getting somewhat long in the tooth. I think they're going to have a bad season.

I agree. Of their "impact" players who is really on the upside of their careers? Soto and Zambrano is the only names i can think of, all the rest are on the wrong side of 30. A-ram is right at, or just beyond his peak, same with Lee. Honestly, if things start going south for them early, i would start trading off pieces(Lee, Aram, Zambrano, Soriano) and try to rebuild quickly.

[HiAndTight]

A lot of the Cubs are getting somewhat long in the tooth. I think they're going to have a bad season.

I agree. Of their "impact" players who is really on the upside of their careers? Soto and Zambrano is the only names i can think of, all the rest are on the wrong side of 30. A-ram is right at, or just beyond his peak, same with Lee. Honestly, if things start going south for them early, i would start trading off pieces(Lee, Aram, Zambrano, Soriano) and try to rebuild quickly.

 

And with regard to Zambrano, I don't think he's truly on the upside. Of course looking at just his age you could make that argument, but big boy's gotta whole lotta miles on that right arm of his and has been on a fairly steady decline the previous 5-6 years.

 

I do still believe that the Cubs are the best team in the division and that they were still better than the Brewers last year despite having a rash of injuries and under performing players. They've still got a good starting rotation, a nice lineup and a good backend of the pen.

 

But I definitely agree that they've got a lot of big question marks. The problem with trading the players you listed, Zambrano and moreso Soriano have awful contracts for the current market.

[rluzinski]

Peak is generally considered to be around 27-29. The Cubs are an old team.

[Ennder]

Peak age has gotten younger, it is generally considered to be more in the 25-28 range now. You are over the hill by 30 most of the time. Game just keeps getting younger and younger since the steroids testing.

[berniebrewer4life]

Both prime examples of how the cubs need to infuse some young talent quickly into their organization.

[RockCoCougars]

I agree. Of their "impact" players who is really on the upside of their careers? Soto and Zambrano is the only names i can think of, all the rest are on the wrong side of 30. A-ram is right at, or just beyond his peak, same with Lee. Honestly, if things start going south for them early, i would start trading off pieces(Lee, Aram, Zambrano, Soriano) and try to rebuild quickly

And with regard to Zambrano, I don't think he's truly on the upside. Of course looking at just his age you could make that argument, but big boy's gotta whole lotta miles on that right arm of his and has been on a fairly steady decline the previous 5-6 years.

I don't think that Soto is by any means on the upside either. He was positively brutal last year and could very well be a one year wonder.

[berniebrewer4life]

I don't think that Soto is by any means on the upside either. He was positively brutal last year and could very well be a one year wonder.

His Minor league stats tend to agree with you. I guess i was just reaching for something positive to say about the cubs future.

[Invader3K]

I don't think that Soto is by any means on the upside either. He was positively brutal last year and could very well be a one year wonder.

Yeah, "brutal" is putting it nicely. I made the mistake of drafting him on my fantasy team last year. I'm more inclined to call him a "one year wonder" as well.

[Dragonbait]

So is there an over/under on Marmol getting hurt this year?

[Tedaldtada]

Word out of Cubs camp is that Soto lost 30-40 lbs. this offseason. It needs to be said, will it even matter?

Edit: Actually, I think the same thing is being reported for Big Z, haha.

[JohnBriggs12]

http://sports.espn.go.com...lb/news/story?id=4925182

 

I know we joke about them always being injured, but seriously, it's not even Spring Training yet.

Where you been? It's been reported all winter that Lilly's out until at least mid-May. By the way the Cubs pitchers and catchers reported on Tuesday, so for the Cubs, it is spring training. I'd wait and see how the Brewers pitchers' health is before I take any glee in sore arms on the north side. By the way, Angel Guzman, who could be a key guy in their pen is also behind schedule

[JohnBriggs12]

Peak is generally considered to be around 27-29. The Cubs are an old team.

So are the Brewers. Counsel is 39. Zaun turns 38 in April. Edmonds is 39. Hoffman is 42. Hawkins is 37. Suppan is 35. Gerut is 32. Davis is 34. Wolf is 33.

 

Cubs will get a lot younger if 20 year old SS Starlin Castro wins a job.

[TooLiveBrew]

The point is that the core players for the Cubs are old/getting old, while the core players for the Brewers are young. Zaun, Hoffman, Suppan, & Counsell all have only one guaranteed season left under contract. And Edmonds isn't even on the team yet.

[Invader3K]

So are the Brewers. Counsel is 39. Zaun turns 38 in April. Edmonds is 39. Hoffman is 42. Hawkins is 37. Suppan is 35. Gerut is 32. Davis is 34. Wolf is 33.

I wouldn't consider any of those guys to be core guys on the team. Counsell and Gerut are both utility guys at this point, Edmonds may not even make the team. If Zaun fails, they have other internal options. Hoffman is some sort of freak of nature, and Hawkins may fit into the same category. Certainly the three starting pitchers you listed are being counted on, but Suppan's status seems tenuous. I am reasonably confident Davis and Wolf can both be quite solid this year. I think there are fewer question marks on the Brewers team than the Cubs' at this point.

[Patrick425]

Word out of Cubs camp is that Soto lost 30-40 lbs. this offseason. It needs to be said, will it even matter?

Edit: Actually, I think the same thing is being reported for Big Z, haha.

Not only has Zambrano reportedly lost weight, but he claims he's going to be calmer (see link) http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/playerpage/223692/carlos-zambrano

 

Actually, I hope this is true since I just traded for him last week in my fantasy league.

[JohnBriggs12]

So are the Brewers. Counsel is 39. Zaun turns 38 in April. Edmonds is 39. Hoffman is 42. Hawkins is 37. Suppan is 35. Gerut is 32. Davis is 34. Wolf is 33.

I wouldn't consider any of those guys to be core guys on the team. Counsell and Gerut are both utility guys at this point, Edmonds may not even make the team. If Zaun fails, they have other internal options. Hoffman is some sort of freak of nature, and Hawkins may fit into the same category. Certainly the three starting pitchers you listed are being counted on, but Suppan's status seems tenuous. I am reasonably confident Davis and Wolf can both be quite solid this year. I think there are fewer question marks on the Brewers team than the Cubs' at this point.

I didn't say the Cubs were young. But there core is in their early 30's not late 30's, so there not ancient like the Giants were 2-3 years ago. If a Brewer fan can say he's reasonably confident Davis and Wolf can be solid and that Hoffman and Hawkins are "freakish", then a Cub fan could certainly argue that a Ramirez at 31 and a Derrek Lee at 34 can still be counted on to be as productive as ever. The one guy the Cubs have that's showed age is Soriano, but that's not new this year.

 

I also realize that guys like Counsell and Edmonds are going into this season as bench guys, but how many AB's did Counsell log last year? The answer is over 400. Zaun may give way to a younger guy, but when he was signed they were talking 110-120 starts. I have a feeling if Edmonds makes the team, Macha's going to use him a lot too.

[battlekow]

So is there an over/under on Marmol getting hurt this year?

I am contractually obligated to link this.

[TooLiveBrew]

That had me in stiches, battlekow.

 

 

I didn't say the Cubs were young. But there core is in their early 30's not late 30's

 

Fielder

Braun

Gallardo

Weeks

Hart

Gomez

Escobar

Lucroy

Salome

Parra

McGehee

Gamel

Villanueva

 

All 28 or younger -- even Coffey's only 29. The Cubs are a significantly older team.

[Tbadder]

Yeah, we're younger than the Cubs--but you also gotta know that it's just killing Macha that we are younger. I can only imagine the players he'd like to trade for.

[Yeti73]

Honestly, if things start going south for them early, i would start trading off pieces(Lee, Aram, Zambrano, Soriano) and try to rebuild quickly.

Soriano is incredibly untradeable at this point. He is due $18 mil through 2014. NO ONE would take that deal. Zambrano is owed over $18 mil a season through 2012 and he is an ace for only a month or two a season and stinks the rest. He's the 4th highest pitcher this year and you can't tell me that he's even in the top 30 starters. They have so many Suppanesque contracts on that team that don't go away next year--Fukudome ($13mm), Dumpster ($13), Lee ($13 is a little high, but not ridiculous yet), Lilly ($12mm), Silva ($12mm through 2011 w mutual option for 2012)...

They better hope guys like Wells and Soto prove that they aren't one year wonders, cause they have some garbage on that team.

Also interesting: Fukudome gets 8 first-class round-trip air tickets between Japan and Chicago for family each year, personal trainer, masseuse, interpreter, visa expenses, $25,000 annually in moving expenses, vehicle during spring training and regular season

[crewcrazy]

If Soto's even half as good as he was in 2008, he'll be a very good piece of that offense. I feel like it all really depends on the health of Aramis -- if he stays healthy the whole year, they're at worst an average offense with a pretty solid pitching staff compared to the rest of the division. I don't know how much better they are than the 83 wins they posted last year, but I think they're far from pushovers, even if their stars are starting to decline. Just like most of the division, I could realistically see them finishing with anywhere between something like 76 and 84 wins.

[Ennder]

Not really sure I agree with their staff being much of a step above the rest. Wells is most likely a 4-4.25 ERA type pitcher. Zambrano is going the wrong way and now apparently is giving up his cutter which has been an effective pitch for him. Lilly is probably starting the year on the DL so who knows what to expect from him. The backend of the rotation options aren't anything special. Dempster has been pretty solid but as an extreme slider pitcher(over 30% of his pitches are sliders) I'm not so sure his arm is going to hold up after how many pitches he has thrown the past 2 years. I think that rotation has a lot of chinks in the armor just like the offense. In a perfect world it could be the best in the division but I could see it collapsing too.

 

The Cubs have a lot of risk on their team, maybe more than any other team in baseball to be honest.

[thebruce44]

While I think it is fairly obvious that the Cubs are an "older" team than the Brewers, would anyone be interested in trying to quantify this?

 

I just did a weighted average of the Brewers '09 ages by WAR. It took about 10 minutes thanks to Fangaphs export feature then a little bit of dirty work from Baseballreference to enter the ages. I can do one for the Cubs at lunch or tonight, but before I keep going does anyone see any issues with this? Obviously it is for the '09 season, but I could probably plug the 2010 projected WAR in as well. This would seemly account for the "core players" being more important and telling us more than just a team's average age which would be effected by that 38 year old guy sitting on the bench.