Braun finishes 2nd in Hurricane's HR derby

[Invader3K]

Didn't the Brewers have a player a few years ago get hurt in a dirt bike accident or something?

[Tedaldtada]

Tedaldtada29[/b]]I don't think you will find many baseball players with clauses in their contracts that do not allow them to hit a baseball.

 

As far as his performance being effected by participating, really? Is it that he isn't working on his plate discipline instead? Or is it that Braun will become homer crazy?

I never said that anyone should have a clause in their contract that does not allow them to hit a baseball or participate in a HR derby. I was responding to prophets post that basically stated that clubs should never put any clauses in contracts regarding what players can and can not do in the off season. I don't agree with this. If I have invested millions of dollars in a player, there are certain things (does not necessarily include HR derbys or Winter ball) that I'm not going to want him to do during the off season.

 

As far as HR derby effecting performance. It's well known that there has been some cases that correlate participation in the All Star HR derby to 2nd half drop offs in performance. This is not always the case (see Prince Fielder last year).

There is no correlation that is even remotely relevant statistically. Now if you want to say he might hurt his back by trying to mash in an alumni HR derby, I could be on board, especially since his back problem is probably chronic. Still it doesn't worry me enough to question a player like some have. The guy takes thousands of swing every year. Any one of those could be the one that he tweaks his back.

[homer]

When I read the thread title, at first I thought Iribarren had put together a HR contest, which confused me. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Ditto! I was thinking "Is Hernan famous enough to have his own home run derby?".

 

I need to switch to double caffeinated.

[CheezWizHed]

Grandal hit 16 HR's in his age 20 season at Miami, while Braun only hit 10. Doing some rough calculations, this guy projects to hit 77.4 HR's over 700 plate appearances in his rookie season!

That's what I'm talking about! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Patrick425]

Tedaldtada29[/b]]

Tedaldtada29[/b]]I don't think you will find many baseball players with clauses in their contracts that do not allow them to hit a baseball.

 

As far as his performance being effected by participating, really? Is it that he isn't working on his plate discipline instead? Or is it that Braun will become homer crazy?

I never said that anyone should have a clause in their contract that does not allow them to hit a baseball or participate in a HR derby. I was responding to prophets post that basically stated that clubs should never put any clauses in contracts regarding what players can and can not do in the off season. I don't agree with this. If I have invested millions of dollars in a player, there are certain things (does not necessarily include HR derbys or Winter ball) that I'm not going to want him to do during the off season.

 

As far as HR derby effecting performance. It's well known that there has been some cases that correlate participation in the All Star HR derby to 2nd half drop offs in performance. This is not always the case (see Prince Fielder last year).

There is no correlation that is even remotely relevant statistically. Now if you want to say he might hurt his back by trying to mash in an alumni HR derby, I could be on board, especially since his back problem is probably chronic. Still it doesn't worry me enough to question a player like some have. The guy takes thousands of swing every year. Any one of those could be the one that he tweaks his back.

There is no long term consistant statistic correllation. But there have definitly been isolated cases of severe drop offs of 2nd half production:

 

2008 - Josh Hamilton - 1st half: 21HR/.919OPS 2nd Half: 11HR/.874OPS

2007 - Alex Rios 1st 17/.870 2nd 7/.831

2005 - Bobby Abreu 1st 18/.955 2nd 6/.787

 

Then there are also the players that seem to show no effect or even improve in the second half like Fielder, Howard, and Tejada.

 

So, you could definitely argue that it's just coincidence. I think it's the severity of some of the drop offs of past HR derby participants that worries some. You're probably right. There probably is no real harm in doing something like this. However, I like to error on the safe side.

[Funketown]

2008 - Josh Hamilton - 1st half: 21HR/.919OPS 2nd Half: 11HR/.874OPS

2007 - Alex Rios 1st 17/.870 2nd 7/.831

2005 - Bobby Abreu 1st 18/.955 2nd 6/.787

 

Then there are also the players that seem to show no effect or even improve in the second half like Fielder, Howard, and Tejada.

If players who participate in the HR derby consistently put up worse 2nd half numbers than 1st half numbers, it's probably as much selection bias as anything. Players who are picked for the HR derby are typically chosen because they have hit well above their true talent level for the first half of the season. We should expect these players to regress a bit in the second half.

[snyttri]

According to this FanGraphs article there seems to be no correlation for the reasons Funketown mentioned.

"Any fears of a powerless second half because of the derby are extinguished when you examine the last three seasons of participants. Taking all 24 of their first and second half homerun and plate appearances, I found that the difference is marginal, and can probably be attributed to regression more so than anything derby related."

http://www.fangraphs.com/...d-its-carry-over-effect/

[sheethead]

2008 - Josh Hamilton - 1st half: 21HR/.919OPS 2nd Half: 11HR/.874OPS

2007 - Alex Rios 1st 17/.870 2nd 7/.831

 

I wouldn't consider these severe drop offs.

 

2005 - Bobby Abreu 1st 18/.955 2nd 6/.787

 

This was a severe drop off, but considering what he has done since 2005, I might suggest that he was hitting well above his head (ped?) in early 2005.

[monty57]

This is what players do. People need to have fun.

Exactly! They're human beings and last I looked, this is still America. Whatever they want to do on they're free time is up to them. And, putting clauses in contracts to dissuade players from doing what they enjoy is ludicrous too. The Brewers take the risk of off-season injury whenever they sign a player to a contract. They shouldn't, and we shouldn't, have the right to tell players how they have to live their lives within the law. It's their choice as human beings and that's the bottom line. Besides, Prince launched a bunch that almost knocked satellites out of orbit at the All-Star game and he had a pretty good second half.

I don't really have a problem with Braun's participation. However, to your point, check out your insurance contracts, and I bet you'll see some clauses where they won't pay. Many businesses also put clauses in for what people do in their "off-time." For example, if a truck driver gets a DUI, he will lose his job. Yes, this is America and property rights and contract law still stand. America is not a land of do what you want whenever you want with no repurcussions. As far as "within the law," remember that you're talking contract law. A "real world" example would be that you have the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, but that doesn't give you the right to go into someone else's house uninvited... because it's their property. By signing a contract of employment, we Americans (which includes baseball players, even non-Americans) must abide by those conditions or face breach of contract. If a team puts a clause in to "dissuade players from doing what they enjoy," it is because what they enjoy is a dangerous activity that poses undue risk upon the other party to the contract without said party receiving any potential gain. Ask the Yankees if they're glad they put a "no basketball" clause in Aaron Boone's contract. They knew he liked to play pick-up games of basketball and were worried that he could get hurt. He did, and it voided his contract.

 

Now, I'd guess Braun didn't breach his contract, so again, I don't have a problem with him "having fun," through his participation. However, if he had gotten hurt doing it, you can bet it would be pretty big news and these boards would be in an uproar. I would also bet that every future MLB contract would have a mandatory "no non-sanctioned home run derby" clause.

 

[1992casey]

Dave Krynzel got hurt in an off-season accident on a dirt bike (or similar vehicle). Years before, Robin Yount was hurt in a similar fashion and didn't admit to it until almost 20 years later.

 

Player contracts generally prohibit this kind of activity. Yount was an exception. Prohibition of off-season racing activities was specifically written out of his contract.

 

Skiing is another activity that's generally prohibited. Jim Lonborg is the poster child for ski accidents. Someone retired recently and said he couldn't wait to ski again after a seventeen year hiatus.

 

I doubt that there's any correlation between home run contests and performance decline. There might be enough anecdotal evidence to cause one to look into the situation, though.

 

As far as Braun participating in this thing, I can't get too worked up about him hitting with a bunch of college kids at a time when he'd be hitting anyway. He didn't even finish first. It was probably batting practice for him.

[Patrick425]

Thanks for the info snyttri. That does seem to be a pretty convincing argument against the whole 2nd half drop off theory. I would be interested in seeing the 1st/2nd half numbers of players who advanced to the later rounds vs players out after the first round. Probably similar numbers, but I'd be curious anyways.

 

2008 - Josh Hamilton - 1st half: 21HR/.919OPS 2nd Half: 11HR/.874OPS

2007 - Alex Rios 1st 17/.870 2nd 7/.831

 

I wouldn't consider these severe drop offs.

Yeah, I guess the OPS differences are not that big, but I thought the HR drops offs were significant (of course there may have been injuries that I'm not aware of).

[Patrick425]

1992casey[/b]]Dave Krynzel got hurt in an off-season accident on a dirt bike (or similar vehicle). Years before, Robin Yount was hurt in a similar fashion and didn't admit to it until almost 20 years later.

Didn't Jeff Kent say that he fell out of his truck, when in fact, he got hurt riding his motorcycle or something like that?

 

[1992casey]

Carlos Lee had a bad second half after participating in the Home Run Derby, and he "blamed" the Derby on his performance. However, if you look at the stats, his decline that year started well before the All Star game.

[Patrick425]

This is a bit OT, but I know there was a lot of hand ringing last year about pitchers who were participating in the WBC and if they should be involved in that type of competitive environment before the start of the season. Does anyone know of any follow up research on this? Is there any evidence to show that these pitchers tended to have down years or wore down (more than normal) at the end of last year?

[sheetswannabe]

Clint Barmes. Didn't he get hurt bringing groceries up the stairs his rookie year when he was having an amazing year? If I remember right he was out for a couple months at least. That said, players can slip and fall on ice and end their career, so I am not too worried about Braun going back to his college and having fun with the new guys.

[sheethead]

No stairs!!!

[battlekow]

Dave Krynzel got hurt in an off-season accident on a dirt bike (or similar vehicle). Years before, Robin Yount was hurt in a similar fashion and didn't admit to it until almost 20 years later.

Danny Frisella was killed in a dune buggy accident before the 1977 season.

[Dragonbait]

Patrick425 wrote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2008 - Josh Hamilton - 1st half: 21HR/.919OPS 2nd Half: 11HR/.874OPS

2007 - Alex Rios 1st 17/.870 2nd 7/.831

2005 - Bobby Abreu 1st 18/.955 2nd 6/.787

Then there are also the players that seem to show no effect or even improve in the second half like Fielder, Howard, and Tejada.

 

To me the drop off has to do with less games after the All-Star break more than the derby.

[Patrick425]

Myday2001[/b]]

Patrick425 wrote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2008 - Josh Hamilton - 1st half: 21HR/.919OPS 2nd Half: 11HR/.874OPS

2007 - Alex Rios 1st 17/.870 2nd 7/.831

2005 - Bobby Abreu 1st 18/.955 2nd 6/.787

Then there are also the players that seem to show no effect or even improve in the second half like Fielder, Howard, and Tejada.

 

To me the drop off has to do with less games after the All-Star break more than the derby.

I'm not necessarily saying that the Derby had to do with the drop off, but I definitly don't think it was number of games. The ratios don't really match up. There are less games in the second half but not enough to warrant 21 vs 11, 17-7, and 18-6 drop offs.

 

 

[Invader3K]

Don't most players tend to wear down a bit as the season progresses? That could be explanation enough.

[dlk9s]

I don't know, everyone, I'm really afraid that an hour of swinging for the fences can undo years of proper training.

[RobDeer 45]

Seriously?

 

I hate the HR derby slump correlation. I'm sure I could find a few guys that slumped after the all star break that ate sushi. Should we be worried about that? Dumb!