Prince's Future

[Invader3K]

The only trade I think I would accept for Fielder would be Prince Fielder to Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak AND Neftali Felez.

The problem with this line of thinking is that we have no way of knowing if those two guys are even available. I fear that some fans are getting their expectations for a Fielder trade a bit too high.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The only trade I think I would accept for Fielder would be Prince Fielder to Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak AND Neftali Felez.

The problem with this line of thinking is that we have no way of knowing if those two guys are even available. I fear that some fans are getting their expectations for a Fielder trade a bit too high.

This is the only trade proposal I have heard that makes sense for the Brewers and the other team involved. Who cares if they are available? seriously.. Name a better proposal. If there isn't a better proposal, then if these players are not available, then hold on to Fielder and get 2 first round picks. That's the way I'm looking at it.

[monty57]

But you don't get two first round picks. You potentially get one first round pick, and you get a supplemental pick. The Brewers lost Sheets and got nothing. They lost CC, Linebrink and Cordero and got 2nd rounders/supplemental picks. They offered arby to Graffy and noone wanted him, so he accepted (that wouldn't happen with Prince). I know I'm missing some here. On top of that, a draft pick has more risk than a player who has advanced through the system.

 

There are a lot of variables, but losing Prince and only gaining draft picks would be disheartening... particularly if they aren't in a tight playoff hunt. The only way I wouldn't completely hate losing Prince for draft picks is if we don't trade him next offseason, and we are leading the division or within a couple games at trade deadline. My worry then is that the Brewers would go "all in" and make a huge deal for the playoffs, and in addition to losing Prince we'd also trade away some of our good minor league talent, putting us in danger of going into serious rebuild mode.

 

I hope they're able to extend him. As my hopes for that are diminishing, I hope they either trade him this season if they're out of it or next offseason. They will get a good haul for him, but holding out for an unrealistic haul could end in disappointment. With the luck the Brewers have had with "holding out for draft picks," Prince would get hurt in his last month as a Brewer or the Yankees would for some reason sign him, Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols, netting the Brewers a third rounder.

[paul253]

I agree that letting him go for draft picks is dumb. We've tried that and quite frankly we've been screwed over. Seriously, a second round pick for Sabathia? Not to mention those comp picks are such a toss up. For every Jake Odorizzi (who hasn't even hit A ball yet) there is a Cutter Dykstra. You need to get established prospects who are closer than 4 years away in return for Fielder. I agree Smoak and Felez would be ideal, but with Gamel and even Lawrie able to play first base getting a first basemen in return isn't absolutely necessary. Heck Corey Hart could even move back to first base for a year or two if we are that desperate for one. Or we could sign a one or two year replacement like Overbay. Pitching is the number one thing we need in return for Fielder if we trade him, and I hope the Brewers don't limit themselves to having to receive a first basemen in the trade. That being said, I wouldn't mind seeing them draft a first basemen in the first or second round this year just so there is someone in the minors who is playing that position with some upside.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I agree that letting him go for draft picks is dumb. We've tried that and quite frankly we've been screwed over. Seriously, a second round pick for Sabathia? Not to mention those comp picks are such a toss up. For every Jake Odorizzi (who hasn't even hit A ball yet) there is a Cutter Dykstra. You need to get established prospects who are closer than 4 years away in return for Fielder. I agree Smoak and Felez would be ideal, but with Gamel and even Lawrie able to play first base getting a first basemen in return isn't absolutely necessary. Heck Corey Hart could even move back to first base for a year or two if we are that desperate for one. Or we could sign a one or two year replacement like Overbay. Pitching is the number one thing we need in return for Fielder if we trade him, and I hope the Brewers don't limit themselves to having to receive a first basemen in the trade. That being said, I wouldn't mind seeing them draft a first basemen in the first or second round this year just so there is someone in the minors who is playing that position with some upside.

How is that dumb? Is it really dumb to hold on to Prince if he is keeping the team in a contending position? I don't think so. The trade scenario I posted would be the only one I wold do for Prince Fielder unless some one can think of a better one. Why? Because Justin Smoak and Neftali Feliz are mlb ready prospects. There not a couple years away from the Majors, and they would fill a big pitching void and 1B void by losing Fielder. Keeping the Brewers is possible contention.

[trwi7]

I'd rather get a couple of really good prospects that might be a couple years away than keep Fielder for two picks.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd rather get a couple of really good prospects that might be a couple years away than keep Fielder for two picks.

Everybody has their own opinion on this. Just understand by trading Fielder the Brewers would probably be rebuilding for a couple years down the road. Unless somehow they get a deal they can't refuse that includes Mlb ready prospects. I have a strong feeling that DM won't trade Fielder if 1.) it means they have to rebuild. AND 2.) If it doesn't include top Mlb ready prospects that could help out Immediately.

[Menace II Sobriety]

I'd rather get a couple of really good prospects that might be a couple years away than keep Fielder for two picks.

Everybody has their own opinion on this. Just understand by trading Fielder the Brewers would probably be rebuilding for a couple years down the road. Unless somehow they get a deal they can't refuse that includes Mlb ready prospects. I have a strong feeling that DM won't trade Fielder if 1.) it means they have to rebuild. AND 2.) If it doesn't include top Mlb ready prospects that could help out Immediately.

Losing 1 player, even 1 as good as Fielder does not put this team into total rebuild mode. I don't want to get into how advanced the minor league pitching will be this time next year or the potential move of Gamel over to 1st. I would like to point out that when the Rangers got that Tex deal Feliz was not nearly as highly regarded as he is now so it would be nearly impossible to get both Smoak and Feliz for Prince, you cannot say that is the only deal you would accept as it looks as though the Padres turned down a 6-1 deal for Gonzalez because they were holding out for a 7th player.

[paul253]

How is that dumb?

 

I should rephrase. Expecting a first round pick is dumb and expecting to get an impact player from the draft picks is dumb. You say you'll only trade him for MLB ready prospects but seem ok to let him walk and take draft picks which would turn into somebody at least three years away, probably more, and that's if they even make it. The players you'll receive in a trade will be better prospects then players you'll get in the draft. Also, if you don't trade him and he walks, which I believe he will, you have exactly one year extra to be a "contender". Then he's gone. The guys you trade him for will be closer and better than guys from the draft and even if you have to go into rebuilding mode, which I agree with MIIS you won't, you'll be rebuilding faster by obtaining players in a trade. Don't forget about how much money is coming off the books next year (Hall, Suppan, Riske, possibly Hoffman, Bush, Counsell). That'll be more than enough to sign a player or two to help the offense. Obviously you're not going to sign a 50 hr 140rbi guy, but you can improve in another position (RF?) while signing someone to replace Fielder. Or you could open up a spot for Gamel. You could also go for another pitcher. Either way, I view trading Fielder as a MUCH better option than having him play one more season then letting him go. The guy has shown zero interest in even discussing an extension and his agent is notorious for squeezing the absolute highest price for his clients. I think the Brewers would be fools to give one guy 20% of the payroll when they could trade him for two or three guys that could help for 4-5 years and they be even bigger fools for letting him walk away in free agency.

[endaround]

I think you're way overestimating what Fielder will bring in a trade. He's a 1B who'll be making around $13-15m. There's surplus value in that but not a lot. He's highly unlikely to sign with the team that trades for him.

[endaround]

But you're not going to get that. You're going to get a 20 year old AA arm with projectability and another nugget. Its hard to find a market for 1B. Keep in mind that Berkman may also be on the market for a one year deal.

[jhart05]

"If it were my choice and I could get a MLB ready 2/3 SP, a quality RP both with little to no service time, and a decent cf prospect for Prince I think in the long run it helps the team."

 

I have to agree with endaround here. No one is going to give them as much as that for Prince.

 

If they do trade him, which I still think MA is going to find the money somewhere to pay him, a lot of fans are going to be upset (besides the fact he's a fan favorite) but more because they will be thinking "that's all we got for him?".

[paul253]

You're going to get a 20 year old AA arm with projectability and

another nugget. Its hard to find a market for 1B. Keep in mind that

Berkman may also be on the market for a one year deal.

 

You're going to get more than that. You make it sound like we're going to get a potential #3 starter and a throw-in for Fielder. Fielder is an elite offensive player. MVP candidate for the past 2 or 3 years. He's young, has as much power potential as anyone in baseball. Great plate discipline, drives in runs, can even hit for a decent average. Offensively you probably couldn't name 5 or 6 better players overall in all of baseball. Yes he's somewhat limited defensively, but someone who trades for Fielder isn't going to be trading for him for his defense. I'd expect one very good and two good prospects wouldn't be too much to ask for.

a lot of fans are going to be upset (besides the fact he's a fan

favorite) but more because they will be thinking "that's all we got for

him?".

 

Whats the reaction going to be when he walks away for nothing?

[endaround]

But most teams are set at 1B. The only teams that will trade for Fielder are teams who have an opening at 1B or DH, don't have an in house candidate available, are set to compete in 2011 and have $13-15m to spend on a 1B/DH Which is who? The Mets possibly? The Mariners? There just aren't that many teams who are going to blow anyone away for a 1B/DH getting paid close to market value. This isn't like pitching where every team needs 5 starters and every 5th starter basically stinks so there are going to be 15 teams looking to make the playoffs who can significantly improve with a top line pitcher.

[joepepsi]

Lyle Overbay netted two former 1st round picks, and a former 2nd rounder who had already made 40 major league starts to the tune of a 4.15 ERA. We can argue maybe those guys were drafted a little high in retrospect, but if Lyle brings 3 talented players, 2 of whom had already made it to the majors, then I suspect Prince will be bring 3 good players, at least one of which will have high upside.

[endaround]

Overbay wasn't making $13-15m and was under team control for 3 more seasons. And that was an entirely different trade market. You might get Niese or Holt from the Mets plus something (maybe both given its Minaya) depending upon how they do this season.

[paul253]

Prince would be a major upgrade over a lot of players who teams are relying on at 1B/DH. If a team feels as though they can afford to sign him, I don't see why they wouldn't want to acquire him. Again, we're talking about a top 6 or 7 player offensively, so it's not like teams will say "well we don't need him, we already have Hank Blalock". I'm sure there are plenty of teams, the Brewers included, that would absolutely love to have Prince Fielder in the middle of their lineup, and if they work out an extension ahead of time I'm sure they'd be willing to give up something good.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Prince would be a major upgrade over a lot of players who teams are relying on at 1B/DH. If a team feels as though they can afford to sign him, I don't see why they wouldn't want to acquire him. Again, we're talking about a top 6 or 7 player offensively, so it's not like teams will say "well we don't need him, we already have Hank Blalock". I'm sure there are plenty of teams, the Brewers included, that would absolutely love to have Prince Fielder in the middle of their lineup, and if they work out an extension ahead of time I'm sure they'd be willing to give up something good.

Scott Boras is his agent. It's highly unlikely that Prince signs an extension period before FA.

[paul253]

Another thing to consider is this. Look at what teams give up at trade deadline for players. When they Brewers traded for CC Sabathia two seasons ago, they gave up arguably their #1 prospect (LaPorta), another top 10 prospect (Brantley) plus two mid level arms (Jackson and Bryson). And that was for half a season of a player the team knew more or less wouldn't be back. I still don't think its out of the question for the Brewers to get three of a teams top 12 or 13 prospects, including one very high one, in return. Are we going to get Smoak, Felez, and Perez...no, but Smoak and Perez? Possibly. Maybe we throw in an A-baller. If a team feels like Fielder will put them over the top, maybe they will take the chance and then settle for comp picks like Milwaukee did two seasons ago with Sabathia.

[endaround]

Most teams have 1B covered. The Red Sox are set, the Yankees are set, the Angels are set, the Cardinals are set, the Rockies are set, the Phillies are set, the Tigers are set, the Twins are set, the Reds are set. So who does that really leave that has money and looks to be good in 2011? The Lee deal with the Cubs is up after 2010 but the chance Fielder gets dealt to the Cubs is pretty close to zero. The Giants likely need to keep 1B open for Panda. The Rangers can just insert Smoak if he performs like everyone believes he will. The Dodgers are such a mess due to the McCourt divorce and trying to sell the team that no one knows what can happen there. I guess I just really see 3 teams, the Mets who may have budget issues, the Mariners, and the White Sox. You might make a case for Tampa.

[brewerguy71]

Although I do think that the Rangers are actually a good destination in a 2010 trade for Prince Fielder, they arent going to get Justin Smoak in return for him alone, much less 2 or 3 more players.

 

Smoak alone is almost more valuable than Fielder is. Fielder is worth about $35 million or so in surplus value if he went right now. Smoak is worth about $32.5 million. If they are going to follow the mold made by the Teixiera trade to the Braves, which is the smartest move (not necessarily the move Melvin will make) they need to think of players that are in A ball right now with high ceilings. And by taking that route they can get both quantity and quality for the 2012 season in mind.

 

If the were to get, say, 3 A ball prospects and a position player in return for Fielder, they could trade 4 WAR for 4 players producing 10 WAR, the math is simple and logic clear as to why they need to do a trade. They of course need to focus on pitching in any trade. I wouldnt put too much stock in the pitching in the lower levels of the Brewer system as this time.

[paul253]

Most teams have 1B covered.

 

What about DH too? Didn't the Angels just sign Hideki Matsui for DH? Was that a multiyear deal? Surely Fielder is a step up from him. Who do the Rangers have at DH? As far as the Giants go, I cant see them turning down a good offer for Fielder. They are really hurting for offense and if they don't improve it soon they'll risk wasting all this stellar pitching they have now. I think a lot of people are underestimating Fielder. Yes a lot of teams have an internal option they can put at DH or at 1B, but Fielder is better than 90% of them and he's still young. It's a matter of price...if the team thinks they can resign him....or a matter or whether they think they can win that one year they have him for and are willing to go for it. Maybe if the Brewers are out of it at the trade deadline a team would be willing to give up a few more or some better prospects to get Fielder to put them over the top. I still think the chances of him resigning are slim to none and the longer Melvin waits to trade him the less he'll get in return.

[logan82]

Fielder may be better, but he would have to be significantly better to make it worth trading prospects for him. The team would also have to be in contention to trade for a guy who is likely to walk after his service time is up.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I believe that trading Fielder let's say mid-season could net the Brewers more than what they gave up in the CC Sabathia trade. We are talking 1.5 years of control here. Not a half season like was the case with Sabathia. I'd totally go to the Rangers first and ask for Smoak and Feliz. I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers get them.

[Flood Pants]

Fielder may be better, but he would have to be significantly better to make it worth trading prospects for him.

Prince definitely has an edge over the competition

 

Fielders OPS last year - 1.014. Only Pujols was better.

Next highest was Votto at .981. The gap between Prince and Votto is greater than the gap between any of the other big first basemen. including the gap between Pujols and Prince.

 

Looking at VORP, Prince weighed in at 70.3. The next highest was Adrian Gonzales at 57.6. Every team other than St. Louis could gain a good 10-30 runs by acquiring Prince. He truly is an elite player.