Prince's Future

[lcbj68c]

All the points have been re-hashed, but I'll ask, "When is the last time an elite free agent pitcher signed a contract with the Milwaukee Brewers? The only reason I'd save the money would be for an elite pitcher. However, they don't sign in Milwaukee. Even trading Fielder doesn't guarantee that the crop of incoming A-ball pitchers from the trade would be better than our current A-ball pitchers, or better than the following draft's pitchers. And again, whoever noted that come July 2011, if the crew is in 1st/2nd place, you'll not be able to trade Fielder and risk him walking without anything in compensation besides a pick.

 

I'd do everything in my power to sign Prince around $20M/year and encourage him to accept a deal that makes him a free agent again at age 32. If he won't, then you trade him in Jan of 2011 and try to get some major league talent in return, ala what Phil/Sea/Tor did with Halladay. "Re-stocking the minors" seems silly to me, as if your scouting dept is any good, you do that with your draft picks anyhow.

[NievesNoNO]

That leaves a lot of money to fill the holes we'll have and maybe even allow you to sign an elite pitcher like Lee or Cain (if they become available) I just think $120-$150 million dollars is too much for Fielder, as much as I like him and as much as I recognize how much of an offensive force he has become.

I agree that will be alot of money to fill some holes, however signing an elite pitcher will likely cost a similar amount of money as it will cost to sign Fielder. So if they're not committed to signing Fielder long term I doubt they'll want to pony up what it'll take to get an elite pitcher. I do agree that if we aren't going to resign him then we need to get something back in a trade. To who and for what I don't know. I would guess that all ready the team has a good idea where they stand and what they're going to do come next year.

 

 

[logan82]

I actually agree with Haudricourt's take on it. Link

 

 

This is my take on how it will go down: Before opening day, the

Brewers will make a push to sign Fielder. They'll offer him something

around $20 million a year for several years and see what the answer is.

Truth be told, they probably expect Boras to turn them down and allow

Fielder to go on the market after the 2011 season, and probably force

the Brewers to trade him beforehand to get some players in return.

At that point, the Brewers will have to make known what they offered Fielder or risk having their fans think they lowballed him.

 

[clancyphile]

Offer Prince 8 years at $17.5 million a year. That's $140 million.

 

Extend Braun - 3 years, $54 million.

 

Build around them.

[joepepsi]

I actually agree with Haudricourt's take on it. Link

 

 

This is my take on how it will go down: Before opening day, the

Brewers will make a push to sign Fielder. They'll offer him something

around $20 million a year for several years and see what the answer is.

Truth be told, they probably expect Boras to turn them down and allow

Fielder to go on the market after the 2011 season, and probably force

the Brewers to trade him beforehand to get some players in return.

At that point, the Brewers will have to make known what they offered Fielder or risk having their fans think they lowballed him.

 

I agree with him too. If this is how it plays out, then they should be prepared to go for it this year. Push the payroll a bit, go hard for the right mid season deals and be willing to trade top prospects. Then next winter entertain offers for Prince and rebuild around Braun and Yo, and with any luck, resurrected Weeks and Parra.

[paul253]

When is the last time an elite free agent pitcher signed a contract with the Milwaukee Brewers?

When is the last time the Brewers offered an elite pitcher a competitive contract? They offered CC Sabathia a very nice deal but he didn't take it because he knew he could do better, which he obviously did. I doubt anyone would avoid signing in Milwaukee if the money was right. Ben Sheets resigned a few years ago when he didn't have to.

Even trading Fielder doesn't guarantee that the crop of incoming A-ball

pitchers from the trade would be better than our current A-ball

pitchers, or better than the following draft's pitchers.

 

If they trade him, it will not be for A-Ball pitchers. At the very lowest, it would be for people who have had success in AA. At least I would certainly hope so.

however signing an elite pitcher will likely cost a similar amount of

money as it will cost to sign Fielder. So if they're not committed to

signing Fielder long term I doubt they'll want to pony up what it'll

take to get an elite pitcher.

 

That's true, but think about it. You could either sign Fielder at whatever it costs, or you could trade him for high ceiling prospects then sign a pitcher for close to that $20 million a year you'd have given Fielder. So you have Fielder, or for the same price you have a good FA pitcher PLUS the prospects you got for trading Fielder. I think you'd come out ahead with the second option. Beside. Prince is only 2 years from free agency and he doesn't even seem interested in considering a contract extension with Milwaukee. Don't you think if he really wanted to stay in Milwaukee he'd at least consider an offer? After this past season when his value was highest, he could have gone to Milwaukee and stated his demands, but he didn't. He is going to go to free agency, at which point Milwaukee will not be able to resign him. Milwaukee's offer will be similar to it's offer with Sabathia. Higher than they could realistically afford but lower than what someone else will give him.

Extend Braun - 3 years, $54 million.

 

Isn't Braun under contract for like 6 or 7 more years? Why would we need to extend him for that much money right now?

[Invader3K]

Yes, Braun is under contract for six more seasons (through 2015). His contract doesn't really get that sizable until the last couple years of his deal, and if he continues his current production, will be a bargain. I'm not sure why Braun's name comes up in these Fielder discussions because his salary and contract are basically a non-factor. The only cause for concern would be if we re-sign Fielder to a huge deal, and then the other young guys start to get expensive in a few years (Escobar, McGehee, etc).

 

The more I think about it, I think they'll have to trade Fielder by next winter. The realm of $100 million+ guaranteed contracts is one which the Brewers are probably safer avoiding. I just hope we aren't disappointed by the haul Melvin procures when/if he does finally trade Prince. We better darn well see a couple blue chip prospects come back for him.

[NievesNoNO]

The more I think about the situation the more I realize the Brewers can't win.

1)If they are able to resign Prince they've put themselves in a position where they must almost exclusively rely on their farm system for players to fill out the rest of their roster and will need to trade or let any current young players that reach the end of their arbitration years go to free agency. (I still like this option the best)

2)Trade him. But to who? Few teams will be willing to part with elite prospects for a one year rental but even fewer teams have the money to trade for him and work out a big enough extension that will persuade Prince to forgo the impending free agent bidding war. So assuming we wait until next off-season to trade him who does that leave? The Yankees, Boston, maybe the Angels or Dodgers, Chicago? If I'm giving up my mega prospects (assuming these clubs even have any) I would think there better be an agreement for an extension in place before a trade or why would I do the trade when I can just buy him in the following off-season without giving up anything (except for the comp. picks).

3)Let him play out the deal and take the picks. This kind of feels like giving up and I'm sure to the majority of the fan base this is an unacceptable route, but if teams don't end up offering up some elite talent they may as well go this route instead of taking a big market teams 2nd/3rd tier 4A garbage in return.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

If the Brewers were ok with trading some of their best prospects for half a year of CC, why wouldn't they forgo a similar opportunity cost to hang onto Prince for a half a year in 2011? If they are in it at mid-year next season, my guess is he stays put and they just get a comp pick for him. I can't see them getting anywhere near fair value for him in a trade and they want to stay competitive.

[Invader3K]

NievesNoNO wrote:The Yankees, Boston, maybe the Angels or Dodgers, Chicago?

This is what worries me right now. There may not be that many suitors willing to give up much for Prince, because he may not fill a need for them. The Yankees have Teixeira at 1B, the Red Sox have a glut of 1B/DH types. The Dodgers are a mess with their ownership situation and may not even be in contention the next couple years. The White Sox and Angels may be somewhat more realistic possibilities, but I have no idea if they have enough to make it worth the Brewers' while.

[logan82]

This information would probably go with any number of threads but There is a interesting quote from Attanasio in the JS.

 

"The Cubs have a much higher average ticket price than we do and get

significantly more in media revenue. That's the simple math," said

Attanasio, who indicated the Brewers' local television contract

generates less than $10 million per season.

 

 

 

 

 

"We're

30th (among the 30 clubs in media revenue). The scorecard I use is

we're 30th and when we bought the team we were 27th in (total)

revenues. Now, we're somewhere like 18th. So, I feel like we've moved

the dial. Actually, it's the fans who moved the dial."

 

Attanasio was quick to note that the Brewers' payroll wouldn't be in

the same ballpark, so to speak, without the revenue-sharing plan

initiated by Commissioner Bud Selig, the team's former owner. That plan

added nearly $30?million to the Brewers' coffers last year, which

combined with the team's tremendous per-capita attendance, allowed the

payroll bump

Pretty scary how much we rely on good attendance. We would be completely boned without revenue sharing. The worst part is the Yankees are getting smarter and actually spending less money so that $30M isn't likely to go up to much in the future and might even go down. I am not sure if it is still the case, but at one point paying for a new stadium gave a team a deduction form revenue sharing.

[brains and braun]

When are the Yankees spending less money? I thought they signed Tex, CC, and AJ to a quarter billion in deals.

[kramnoj]

Teams do receive a benefit to building a new park, but it doesn't mean that they will pay less in revenue sharing than they did before the new stadium. The main goal of a new stadium is to increase revenue. So the Yankees could get a break in revenue sharing responsibilities, but still pay out a larger amount than previously because of the extra revenue generated.

 

The Yankees opening day payroll looks to be their highest yet. Cots has it at almost $211M right now, and doesn't include the salaries of any pre-arby players, so figure another $2M or so.

[logan82]

They dropped the team salary by almost $8M in 2009. Courtesy of Cot's Contracts.

 

* 2009: $201,449,189

* 2008: $209,081,577

* 2007: $189,639,045

* 2006: $194,663,079

* 2005: $208,306,817

* 2004: $184,193,950

* 2003: $152,749,814

* 2002: $125,928,583

* 2001: $112,287,143

* 2000: $107,588,459

[burnzy24]

This information would probably go with any number of threads but There is a interesting quote from Attanasio in the JS.

 

"The Cubs have a much higher average ticket price than we do and get significantly more in media revenue. That's the simple math," said Attanasio, who indicated the Brewers' local television contract generates less than $10 million per season.

"We're 30th (among the 30 clubs in media revenue). The scorecard I use is we're 30th and when we bought the team we were 27th in (total) revenues. Now, we're somewhere like 18th. So, I feel like we've moved the dial. Actually, it's the fans who moved the dial."

The Brewer's tv contract expires after the 2012 season. They should be able to get much more than they are currently getting now. Now would this additional revenue give us a boost on the overall total or would we then recieve less in revenue sharing? Im just wondering if additional revenue from a new tv contract a year after Prince hits free agency will help the Brewers ability to sign him at all.

[monty57]

I get this picture in my mind that Mark A. has a big calendar on the wall with the day that TV contract expires circled. Every day he checks off one more day in the countdown until the Brewers can have a decent TV deal. He's mentioned it numerous times, and I think the Brewers have done a good job in adding different revenue streams, but they may be getting close to maxed out until a new deal is signed. Of course, Mark is a good enough businessman to know that he needs to keep an entertaining product on the field to keep the ratings up so that he can get maximum value for the next contract.

[Funketown]

Wow, I knew the Brewers' TV contract was bad, but I had no idea it was that bad.

 

Are MLB TV contracts listed anywhere online?

[Invader3K]

Well, I know last season it was announced a new TV deal was signed...but was it said to end after 2012? I'm not sure if that is a fact.

[clancyphile]

This information would probably go with any number of threads but There is a interesting quote from Attanasio in the JS.

 

"The Cubs have a much higher average ticket price than we do and get

significantly more in media revenue. That's the simple math," said

Attanasio, who indicated the Brewers' local television contract

generates less than $10 million per season.

 

 

 

 

 

"We're

30th (among the 30 clubs in media revenue). The scorecard I use is

we're 30th and when we bought the team we were 27th in (total)

revenues. Now, we're somewhere like 18th. So, I feel like we've moved

the dial. Actually, it's the fans who moved the dial."

 

Attanasio was quick to note that the Brewers' payroll wouldn't be in

the same ballpark, so to speak, without the revenue-sharing plan

initiated by Commissioner Bud Selig, the team's former owner. That plan

added nearly $30?million to the Brewers' coffers last year, which

combined with the team's tremendous per-capita attendance, allowed the

payroll bump

Pretty scary how much we rely on good attendance. We would be completely boned without revenue sharing. The worst part is the Yankees are getting smarter and actually spending less money so that $30M isn't likely to go up to much in the future and might even go down. I am not sure if it is still the case, but at one point paying for a new stadium gave a team a deduction form revenue sharing.

Which leads to another question: How will the fans react to NOT signing Fielder? Do that not show up and, as a result, we see the Crew go back to 30th out of 30 teams in payroll?

 

It may be that NOT signing Fielder is the more expensive option.

[Invader3K]

That's why if he's traded, it has to be for a top flight pitching prospect, and hopefully a couple other very good prospects. I think even the average fans will understand the reasoning for such a trade. If it's a return similar to the one for Carlos Lee is the best anyone is offering up (which I still think was a solid trade), they may be better off keeping him and taking comp picks once he hits FA.

[logan82]

Our old deal was through 2012. We just reupped last year for a better "long term deal." Whatever that means. Longer than 2012, but shorter than eternity.

 

Link 1

Link 2

[sheetskout]

Search #FielderScenarios in Twitter for an interesting series.

[Invader3K]

Hmmm...I e-mailed Tom Haudricourt about this topic and he responded with: "I believe the Brewers' current TV deal expires after the 2011 season but I am not 100% certain."

 

I wonder if he forgot about the extension announced last season.

[paul253]

I noticed while looking at the Baseball America top 100 prospects, Tampa has 4 pitchers in the top 100. Any chance they'd want Prince for maybe two of those pitchers plus a position player? I don't know if they'd be able to afford him, but having him in their lineup would certainly help their chances in the AL East.

 

Also, still looks like Texas would be a good fit. Prince for Justin Smoke, Martin Perez and a low level pitcher? Too much to ask for? Not enough?

[PrinceFielderx1]

The only trade I think I would accept for Fielder would be Prince Fielder to Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak AND Neftali Felez. I might even consider Prince Fielder and a low level high ceiling pitching prospect for Smoak and Felez if Fielder alone isn't enough. I wouldn't want to trade Fielder for a top pitcher only, because who will fill in at 1B and make up for some of Fielders production if we lose him? This seems like a win win for both teams. Even at mid-season this could work out and I wouldn't call it rebuilding if the Brewers were to do it. In fact these prospects I believe are Mlb ready.