Prince's Future

[monty57]

Logan, what I was saying is that if we just get comp picks for Fielder, they won't help us for quite a few years. We would have a lineup with Fielder in it, and the next year we'd have relatively the same lineup without Fielder in it. That will hurt. If we can't afford him, we won't be able to afford a free agent who will be as good as him, so we will downgrade.

 

If we cannot extend his contract, I would much rather trade him and get something that will be able to help us continue to compete. What we would get for him in trade should keep us a contender. Draft picks would (in my opinion) make us take a step back for a couple years.

 

Prince is a very good offensive player. His presence alone makes the offense better. Losing him for future consideration (draft picks) will hurt our offense. It appears to me that he is going to test free agency, so the Brewers need to maximize Prince's value to the Brewers, which is probably to either trade him at the deadline this year or during next offseason. Not being defeatist, just realistic.

[Invader3K]

Prince's dismissal of any contract talk after Melvin said he wanted to look into it

 

Where are you getting this from, by the way? Was there something recently in the news that I missed?

[monty57]

Melvin has been quoted in several places stating that at some point he wanted to adress a contract extension for Prince. That was pretty closely followed by a featured article on milwaukeebrewers.com where Prince said he's focusing all his attention on playing, and doesn't want to get into contract discussions. Prince was amicable about it, but to me it shows that Prince isn't ready to sit down to discuss a contract extension. As I discussed in a previous post, I think that if he doesn't sign an extension now, the Brewers lose most of their leverage in signing him to anything close to a "team-friendly" extension, and Prince wouldn't gain much by signing an extension vs. testing free agency.

 

Prince has every right to choose the FA route, and if that is his choice, then the Brewers need to maximize his value to the team.

[Crew2323]

I guess I don't see where this Fielder-closing-the-door stuff is coming from. At the Fan Fest, Haudricourt wrote an article which states:

 

 

Money won't be the only factor when contract negotiations start. The

state of the team and the competitiveness of the organization will play

a big part in Fielder's decision.

 

 

 

 

 

It

is common knowledge that Boras gets his clients big bucks and that

usually can't happen in a market like Milwaukee, but Fielder said that

he will be the one to decide his next baseball home.

 

 

 

 

 

"In

the end, it's my decision," Fielder said. "As my agent, he's going to

give me the most information possible for what's going to benefit me

and my family, and that's what it's about.

 

 

 

 

 

"If my family is happy, then we go from there."

 

I take that as Fielder saying, "If I'm happy in Milwaukee, and my family is happy in Milwaukee, I will surely consider staying in Milwaukee."

[TheCrew07]

Because the market size by itself is meaningless? If we are the smallest market in baseball and have an average payroll we aren't at some extra disadvantage due to market size. You can pretty much look at team payroll over the past few years and you'll get a better idea of things than worrying about the market size.

How can you remove all context from the payroll by saying the market size is irrelevant? It's not the like the Brewers are spending 85 mil with the potential to move spending upwards as the situation improves. This is as good as it's going to get, 3 million fans showed up, the Brewers have a new TV deal, and new ownership has done a fantastic job finding new revenue streams. How is it going to get better than this payroll wise how much further can the team realistically go?

 

Since it isn't going to better, the obvious answer here is that Melvin needs to spend the money he does have more efficiently. How does he do that? Well for 1 quit spending on relievers, for 2 lock up key talent early, both pitchers and position players. Yes the team assumes the risk, but the team always assumes the risk in baseball as all contracts are guaranteed and that's the only way the team can buy wins at a discount without requiring a psychic to predict production spikes from castoff players. Finally, the farm system must remain stocked as we'll need a constant yearly influx of cheap talent to balance out players that are in their final years of arbitration or approaching the end of their contracts. True flexibility isn't payroll flexibility, it's about having multiple options to fill hoes/replace players.

 

I can see signing some FA hitters here and there as necessary, but the FA pitching market is the worst possible way to spend money, especially paying for limited contributions from bullpen type pitchers. Like I've said many times though, it would require a complete change in philosophy from Melvin, he's not into building, he's into maxing out the payroll with the best patches he can afford each year. However those players just aren't very talented or are past their prime which is why they are too expensive to the Brewers even though the Brewers can afford them, spending market value on limited WAR just limits the ceiling of the team. We can sign 3 Braun contracts for 1 Fielder FA contract.... I'd rather do the 3 Braun contracts and get good production from 3 positions, remove the year to year silliness that is arbitration from the mix for those players, and gain longevity in their service time to the organization.

 

I have no desire to be the Twins or the Marlins, the Twins never assemble enough talent to make a legit run at a championship but are competitive each year, nor do I want to "go for it" then blow the team up and start over again like the Marlins have. Until recently the Twins really haven't paid anyone... I hope people can understand the difference to what I'm suggesting. Build the best rotation in the division, keep stockpiling pitching, buy wins at a discounted rate, and the situation will turn. An old saying but it still applies, "those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it". Well Melvin hasn't learned, he keeps doing things the same way and he's just successful enough with it to think that it's working... it works great to turn around an organization, but his policies won't allow for that team to take the final step. I hate to keep repeating myself but there is a very realistic possibly that this first wave of talent will only accomplish a 1 and done in the playoffs for all of the quality hitting talent in this wave... I would think I'm not the only one that would be bothered by this.

[Flood Pants]

Here's my biggest concern. Prince will likely want a long deal, it seems that 7 years is the norm for elite hitters in free agency. A 7 year deal to him means Braun's contract expires before his. This puts the Brewers in a tough spot down the road. It's unlikely they'd be able to resign Braun with Prince's contract on the books. Prince is certainly the more valuable of the two down the road, but I expect Braun's body will hold up better long term and he will be the better investment down the road.

 

But perhaps a couple of sub-par years at the end of Prince's contract are worth the 5 awesome years of having he and Braun continue to hit together.

[logan82]

Not paying Fielder means flexibility to pay for 1 above average player and 1 relief pitcher or two average players. Its not like 16-18m is going to bring in something huge in general.

I think it is going to be more like $18-$20M. That money can be spent on locking up players like Gallardo. It would also buy a couple above average pitchers. It won't bring back a player like Fielder, but if we give it to Fielder we are counting on getting a lot from the farm. Yeah we have a lot of good potential pitching and player in the minors, but we can't count on getting a 3-4 starters, most of our position players and a good portion of the pen out of the minors.

[Baldkin]

Since it isn't going to better, the obvious answer here is that Melvin needs to spend the money he does have more efficiently. How does he do that? Well for 1 quit spending on relievers, for 2 lock up key talent early, both pitchers and position players.

Prince wouldn't sign a deal. He locked up Hall and that's the bane of his existence to a lot of Brewers fans. I can only imagine if Hart had accepted a deal how much worse Melvin would be in the fans eyes.

The fact is, Jack Z's vaunted revamp of the farm system led the Brewers to have all of... 3 solid arms come up through the farm system before this season. Melvin HAD to spend money on relievers, or else we'd be living with guys like Joe Winklesas and Derrick Turnbow (2010 version) in the bullpen.

 

Signing guys to 1-2 year deals to fill holes in the bullpen isn't such a terrible thing.

This was the first season in DM's reign there was enough young talent to actually have some competition for bullpen spots, hopefully that will continue to happen.

[trwi7]

And it's not just about not paying Fielder. It's what you get by not paying Fielder plus what you would get for him in a trade. I don't think locking up Prince is the best thing to do for the franchise and I would prefer he be traded either this summer if we're out of it or after this season.

[paul253]

I am stuck in the middle about what to do here. While Prince is an elite talent and absolute dominate hitter, if we get a Mark Textiera (sp?) type haul we'd be foolish not to trade him. While we do have a lot of arms coming up, not a whole lot of them, if any, seem to be elite can't miss talent like Sheets and Gallardo were. If we can get two high ceiling pitchers plus a high ceiling position player, I say take it. The future of this team is now Braun, Escobar and Gamel and will be supplemented with guys like Lucroy, Schaefer, Cain, and Lawrie. Fielder doesn't seem to have much interest in working out a contract now, which to me says all he is doing is trying to drive his price up. If he will sign something under a 6 year deal for no more than $20 million a year, I say go for it. Otherwise, it's just not worth it, in my opinion.

[ILuvDaBush]

Remind me again what Braun's career numbers are when Prince does NOT hit behind him.

[Funketown]

Remind me again what Braun's career numbers are when Prince does NOT hit behind him.

How many PA's does Braun even have when Prince isn't hitting behind him? 50? 100?

 

Pulling that out seems to be more data mining than anything.

[logan82]

Add to that the fact that protection has been shown statistically not to exist(or at the very least to have minimal effect). It is one of the "baseball truths" that exist more in people's minds than in reality.

[kramnoj]

we can't count on getting a 3-4 starters, most of our position players and a good portion of the pen out of the minors.

 

If that doesn't happen, how likely is $20M spent on FA going to be enough to get the Brewers into the playoffs?

[sheethead]

Prince is one of Boras' next bonanzas. I don't think he will be getting that contract in Milwaukee. He should be traded if it nets anything better than 2 draft picks. The horror would be if he goes to a team and is not the highest rated free agent signing for that team (Sabathia). My money is on Melvin trading him either in the offseason or as a rental next year (barring a run at a Championship). The money he will likely get elsewhere is not the Brewers market value for his services. Disproportionate market values in MLB will demand he play elsewhere sooner than later.

[monty57]

we can't count on getting a 3-4 starters, most of our position players and a good portion of the pen out of the minors.

 

I wouldn't want to do a deal over 4-5 years for Prince, so here's what I see over the next 4-5 years:

 

We've got Braun in LF with Gomez, Cain, Schafer, Davis, Katin, Gindl and Richardson to fill the other two spots. Plus we've got Hart and Gerut for another year if we want them, and Gamel may get moved to RF. Gamel & McGehee are both here for five more years at 3B. Escobar is here for 5 more years at SS. Lawrie (seen as a "can't miss" prospect) at 2B. Lucroy, Salome and Kotteras at C. Plus there are a lot of others in our system that can fill in. I don't see a big problem fielding position players to fit in around Fielder from our system.

 

Wolf is here through 2012 with an option for 2013. Gallardo and Parra here through 2013. Davis has an option for next year. So really, we're looking at one starting pitcher to step up next year to replace Suppan/Bush, and one more to step up the following year to replace Davis. Money will come off the books when Wolf goes, so if we can't find one more SP from the minors, we could use Wolf's money on a new free agent. I hope they're able to work out an extension for Gallardo to keep him here longer.

 

Of the mass of SP we have in the minors, I would hope that at least some of those that don't make it as a starter will at least be able to help in the pen. On top of that, we have Villy through 2012, Stetter through 2013, with guys like Axford and Braddock who should step nicely into the MLB pen for many years.

 

So yes, I think it is quite feasible to believe that we could put a pretty good team around Fielder, simply from players currently in our system (major and minor league). When you also consider that salaries will be coming off the books during the next 4-5 years (Suppan, Hall, Weeks, Hart, Zaun, Bush, Hoffman, Hawkins, etc.) and we ought to still have some flexibility to fill in some holes along the way.

 

If Prince/Boras are willing to work out a 4-5 year extension, I think the Brewers can do it.

[FVBrewerFan]

I've read all the posts with great interest. Great debate from all points of view. After taking it all in, I just believe Prince is gone- it's jsut a matter of when the Brewers want to deal him. And my guess would be before the start of the 2011 season. If they wait until the end of the 2011 season. First, if they're in contention it would be a PR nightmare to trade him, so you may end up getting nothing for him. Secondly, the market is much better in the hot stove league.

 

The only way I can see the Brewers being able to compete for a long term contract would be to trade Braun and free up that salary. It's an either/or- they can't afford both.

[kramnoj]

Braun makes $10M+ in 2014. The Brewers shouldn't have a problem paying Fielder $20M+ and Braun that year.

[TheCrew07]

Yes Fielder rejected the offer, but it's not that simple, you have to take all of the variables into account. What incentive does Prince have to sign a deal when he's only 3 years from his big pay day? Timing is everything here, especially for a player like Prince who is a Boras client and likely not very motivated to do a team friendly deal. The time to try and sign Fielder was the year he put up his 50 HR season, he proved he could hit, he was in tax trouble, and he may have appreciated the offer and may have been willing to sign away a year or 2 of Free Agency. Signing him to a contract early wouldn't have increased his value and an extension wouldn't have hindered the club from trading him if they were determined to do so.

 

It really doesn't matter what did or didn't happen with Fielder now, we're talking what's best to do going forward, and I believe in buying out years of FA at a discounted rate like the team did with Braun with our other young studs as they come along.

[monty57]

I agree ,TheCrew07, and I advocated pretty hard for them to offer Prince a long term deal back then (before players like Braun, Tulo and the rest started signing them). It's also why I think that if they don't sign Prince to an extension now, there is no chance he's signing an extension. Right now, he has two years that he could get injured before he hits free agency. Every day he plays that risk goes down a little bit. I don't think we'd get much of a discount if we sign him now (although there should be some "risk discount") but I don't think there's much chance of extending him if we don't do it now. Although I think we could afford him, I think it's looking more and more like we'll be trading him mid season this year or next offseason.

 

I am definitely on board with you about extending some of our top talent in the "next crop" before they get to arby. I've been blowing that horn for years and was really happy when Braun was signed. The chance to sign Gallardo to a long term, cheap-ish contract is coming to an end. Once the player hits arby, the player's risk goes down significantly, so the extension gets more expensive. That's why you only offer the extensions to truly special players (Lawrie and Escobar come to mind) and do it early. Maybe if we do trade Prince, we'll add another player or two who is "truly special" and will deserve to be offered "Braun-type" extensions. To me, it would be far more palatable to get six to eight years of one or two good players than getting one more year of Prince and a couple of extra draft picks.

[Invader3K]

The time to try and sign Fielder was the year he put up his 50 HR season, he proved he could hit, he was in tax trouble, and he may have appreciated the offer and may have been willing to sign away a year or 2 of Free Agency. Signing him to a contract early wouldn't have increased his value and an extension wouldn't have hindered the club from trading him if they were determined to do so.

That's right when they did offer him that extension he turned down though, right? Right after the '07 season (or during spring training before the '08 season, I guess). Or do you mean they should have offered it to him during the 2007 season? Seems kind of like splitting hairs to me if you're talking about a few months difference in time.

 

Also, with Gallardo, people have to remember how much more risky it is to offer a long term contract to a pitcher than it is to a position player.

[NievesNoNO]

PrinceFielderx1[/b]]If you think about it.. There will be about 20 million freed up after 2010, but only 10 million of it would need to be used to sign Prince Fielder. That's if Prince Fielder gets 20.5 million a year. Fielder already makes 10.5 million this year.

That sounds simplistic but I agree.

 

Players like Prince don't come along very often and for the 20 mil. or so he's going to get per season there isn't much doubt of what you're getting in return. 40 hr., 120 rbi and around 100 runs I would guess will be about the average over the next 6-7 years. I also agree that it would definatley reduce some payroll flexablity, but it could also make Doug be more selective in giving out money. Don't get me wrong, I'm a Melvin fan but I can easily find 10-20 million/year that I would rather give to Prince. I'm not a huge fan of giving relievers any significant money, so between Hoffman, Riske, and Hawkins that's enough money right there to give Prince an extra 10 mil. a year. There's also some decent money sitting on our bench that could've been filled by some of our younger players in the system.

 

I would also like to try and lock up Gallardo, but beyond him I don't see any other current player in that boat. Again, even signing Fielder to a monster deal I don't think prohibits the team from locking in Gallardo. It's just a matter of where you want to funnel the money. If they were willing to give CC 100/5, then I don't think 120-140/6-7 for Prince is out of the realm of possibility. In fact, I would argue that there's significantly less risk in signing Prince. Although, I suppose CC was never going to sign a 5 year deal when there were deals with 2-3 more years on the table anyway.

 

Is there any proof that Fielder was never offered a Braun type deal? I think there's an assumption that he wasn't offered an extension earlier in his career when it's possible that he was but turned it down.

 

[monty57]

Also, with Gallardo, people have to remember how much more risky it is to offer a long term contract to a pitcher than it is to a position player.

 

Absolutely. However, I'd rather take the risk of 8 years/$40MM on a "sure thing" young pitcher who, of course, could get hurt during the contract than I would spend 4 years/$40MM on an average 33-year-old who, of course, could get hurt during the contract. The money is going to get spent on pitching one way or the other. Gallardo is going to start to get expensive in arby, so I'd rather see them try to buy out a couple of FA years, knowing that if he stays healthy he's a pretty good bet to be a good pitcher.

 

Again, I wouldn't offer these to everyone, only those that are selected to be "core players" that you want to build your team around. Hopefully Melvin has learned his lesson and will go year-to-year on non-core players. It's far from an exact science, but it's probably easier to figure out that Braun and Prince were going to continue to be good than to predict that Hall or Hart would continue to play above expectations. If we continue locking up the cream of each crop, we can add a lot of continuity and cost certainty to the team. Of course, not everyone will sign the extension, but don't let that deter you from offering, and don't "settle" for making an offer to the second tier simply because the top player wouldn't extend. If a player doesn't sign, then you have to plan for maximizing your value from that player (i.e. how long to keep him before trading him).

 

Is there any proof that Fielder was never offered a Braun type deal? I think there's an assumption that he wasn't offered an extension earlier in his career when it's possible that he was but turned it down.

 

I believe he was offered an extension, but if I recall correctly, it was offered at the end of his arby years, so Prince knew that he was going to make a boatload of money in arbitration. Therefore, a lot of the risk was off the table for him. That's why I argue that the extension has to be done while there are still arby years left. The tradeoff is that the team takes on the risk of the contract and the player takes a risk of losing out on some possible money down the road. When Braun signed his contract, he knew that his other option was to make around $400k for the next two years. By signing the contract, he knew that if he got hurt or flamed out he was still guaranteed $40MM. In other words, if Braun hadn't signed the contract and had gotten injured in his second year, he would have had to have gone out and found a "real" job. When Prince was offered his extension, he had already played through his league minimum years, so he didn't have nearly as much risk. And, of course, not everyone is going to sign an extension no matter what. That's a perfectly acceptable decision by the player, and may be how Prince wants to play it.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The Brewers should go cheap and young in the bullpen and use that money to re-sign Gallardo. They are spending 10 million on 60IP of relief in Hoffman and Hawkins. That money would be better served to sign/extend Gallardo.

[paul253]

The more I think about it the more I think they need to trade Fielder. Yes it will leave a huge hole on offense, but the fact is we have no pitching. There are guys on the way, but they are by no means sure things. Guys like Arnett, Heckathorn, Rivas, Anundson, Rogers, Peralta, Scarpetta, Butler...they all give me hope, but I don't want to risk the future on them, not after seeing the likes of Hendrickson, Eveland, Luis Martinez, and even Manny Parra to an extent more or less fail once they hit the majors. By trading Fielder, you accomplish two things...one you restock your farm system with at least 2 elite players (hopefully pitchers) and one or two more mid to high level prospects. With first base, you can either fill it internally with Mat Gamel. Or the free agent list isn't too bad. Lyle Overbay would be a nice one or two year replacement. Derek Lee? Maybe Brett Lawrie could shift to first base. Who knows. But by trading Fielder before his huge raise next offseason, on top of expiring contracts to Bill Hall, Jeff Suppan, David Riske, the likely retirement of Trevor Hoffman....thats close to $40 million right there. You could trade Hart and save an addition $5 million. Letting Bush go would save another $5 million. Meanwhile, the core of the team is really still in tact with Braun, Gomez, McGehee, Escobar, Weeks, Gallardo, Wolf, and Parra. You have Lucroy, Gamel, and probably Zach Braddock coming in. Possibly Mike Jones could help in the bullpen. That leaves a lot of money to fill the holes we'll have and maybe even allow you to sign an elite pitcher like Lee or Cain (if they become available) I just think $120-$150 million dollars is too much for Fielder, as much as I like him and as much as I recognize how much of an offensive force he has become.