Prince's Future

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Of all the teams you just listed and mentioned, at least one of them will want Prince Fielder by the time he is traded or a free agent. Look at this realistically. You honestly think all of those teams will pass on Fielder? There's just not a chance. Fielder and Boras are going to test free agency. They're not going to sign an extension without seeing what offers he gets. Once it gets to that point, the Brewers just won't be able to throw the kind of number required for him to stay. It's just my opinion, but he's as good as gone.

So much on that list will change by the time Prince is a free agent. At least one and probably more of those teams will have drastically changed circumstances.

[thebruce44]

I don't want to rehash too much, but I keep coming back to this: Who's going to sign Fielder? The Yanks are locked in with Teixeira (although i guess they could sign him as a DH) and Howard, Pujols, and Gonzalez are all slated to be FA. Obviously, Pujols is likely to resign, but there are still 3 big-time players and I don't see that many suitors.

 

As for the markets larger than MIL:

That would actually be every single MLB team. Someone out there will want him to play first or DH and be able to pay more than the Brewers.

[logan82]

You just need one team that thinks Suppan is worth $42M when everybody else thinks he is worth $30M, I mean it only takes one team to think Fielder is their answer and go after him at any cost.

[clancyphile]

At Prince's age, a seven-year deal is not a big risk. Seven years, $120 million ($15 million bonus paid out over the first three years, $15 million/year for seven years).

[logan82]

A seven year deal is a big risk for any player at any age unless they take a team friendly contract like Braun. Even then there is quite a bit of risk assumed by the team.

[igor67]

You could probably make an argument to Boras for a shorter contract extension with Prince. Say more like 4-5 years only with a primary incentive that He gets to Free Agency again at 29 or 30, and can make another big score. If he did a 7 year now he'd be what 32 when it's done? People feel a lot different about signing a guy for 4+ year contracts when they are large 32 year old men.

[Invader3K]

I see Felipe Lopez just fired Boras. Maybe he can talk Fielder into doing the same. That's probably the only realistic chance we have of signing him beyond 2011.

[Ennder]

The market size isn't important, the payroll size is. We have an average payroll with only 12 teams having significantly higher than we do. We have a very reasonable chance to sign him if we want to. Out of the 12 teams with significantly higher payroll than us a few will be looking for 1B in the near future I'm sure. The Mariners, Mets, Braves, Dodgers(if they give up on Loney), White Sox if Konerko gets too old. There are certainly teams that will be going after him out there.

[Invader3K]

It's not really a matter of "if" they can do it in my mind. Clearly, if Prince isn't opposed to staying here, they could put a huge offer on the table and get him to sign it. The issue is if that would be good for the team in the long run. It's tough to be competitive if you have one player taking up 20-25% of the payroll each year. Not impossible, but very difficult.

[Ennder]

It's tough to be competitive if you have one player taking up 20-25% of the payroll each year. Not impossible, but very difficult.

 

Especially when that one person is Suppan!

[TheCrew07]

How is market size not important when that's the single most limiting factor payroll wise? Throw in reduced revenue sharing because of new stadiums and the Brewers have even less disposable income... I get that you think the NFL is dumb but that doesn't make MLB correct. Finally while the Brewers could technically afford Fielder, the flip side is that Melvin doesn't spend money efficiently enough to do so.

 

I'm not talking about missing on an occasional player and having a dead money contract, that happens to everyone. I'm talking about paying significant amounts of money to players who don't generate enough WAR for the money to be efficiently spent. Even paying market value the Brewers aren't in a position where they can pay out 8 mil for a 2 WAR players like a FA pitcher and still sign a player like Fielder. They would also have to quit blowing money on the bullpen paying market value to players who rarely approach 2 WAR in a season. The Brewers need to "buy" wins at a greatly reduced rate to be better than average, something that hasn't happened outside of Braun's deal thus far.

 

So yea, technically the Brewers could sign Fielder, but that would require a change in philosophy from Melvin, which means it is extremely unlikely.

[TooLiveBrew]

It seems like there are a lot of arms coming up in the system that are 0-2 years away from MLB that could help fill out the pitching side of the roster on the cheap. That's the main reason I'd like to see the Brewers extend Prince -- I think there are enough spots that will be cheap (including position players) for the duration of the hypothetical contract that the Brewers could function well.

[kramnoj]

The Brewers need to "buy" wins at a greatly reduced rate to be better than average, something that hasn't happened outside of Braun's deal thus far.

 

How are you defining "greatly"? Depending on how you define it, is Melvin really deficient at this compared to other GM's, or is it something that is tough to consistently do, and therefore not really a knock on Melvin at all?

[logan82]

Gallardo is going to start getting expensive next year and maybe Parra if he pitches well. Escobar will be getting more expensive before the end of a Fielder contract.

[Invader3K]

Well, while I follow what Crew07 is saying, I do think there is some evidence that yes, Melvin is getting more efficient with his spending as evidenced by this past off-season. While he did spend some decent money on Wolf, Hawkins, and Hoffman, he also significantly went on the cheap at catcher, CF, and shortstop.

[kramnoj]

Obviously how the payroll is divvied up will change over the course of a Fielder contract. Players that will be cheap at the beginning will get more expensive later on. For the team to be competitive during the end of a Fielder contract, if the salary is evenly distributed, the Brewers will need to have a cheap bullpen and won't be able to spend much on SP. On the other hand, Lawrie should be on the field somewhere by that time, providing new cheap talent. It will always be a balancing act.

[Invader3K]

I guess it all really comes down to what sort of payday Prince is looking for. If he's looking to do a somewhat shorter contract now (say 4-5 years), with the mindset that he'll be in line for another monster payday when he's about 30 (a stance which could very well make him overall more money over the course of his career), it might be very doable for Milwaukee. If he and Boras are going to be dead set on looking for a blockbuster 8-10 year deal once he hits free agency, then the Brewers should probably say, "Good luck in your future endeavors."

[trwi7]

Well, while I follow what Crew07 is saying, I do think there is some evidence that yes, Melvin is getting more efficient with his spending as evidenced by this past off-season. While he did spend some decent money on Wolf, Hawkins, and Hoffman, he also significantly went on the cheap at catcher, CF, and shortstop.

Melvin didn't get more efficient with his spending. The Hawkins and Hoffman signings prove that. That's over $10 million in payroll for 60 inning relievers.

 

[logan82]

Yeah I agree the Hoffman deal in particular was extremely inefficient. I sort of mentioned that a bit in the Jack Z thread. Closers are an area where I think teams can easily save money and flipping them for prospects is the way to go. Teams may be catching on to that if the Matt Capps deal is any indication. The difference between an elite closer and a solid reliever is pretty small in terms of games and huge in terms of price.

 

For the team to be competitive during the end of a Fielder contract, if the salary is evenly distributed, the Brewers will need to have a cheap bullpen and won't be able to spend much on SP.

 

I would rather have the flexability to sign starting pitching than lock up Fielder. We are counting on several pitching prospects who haven't even had success at the AA level making it if we tie up a large chunk of money in Fielder.

 

I don't think there will be serious discussions about resigning Fielder until after arby numbers are exchanged next year. My guess is that he will be looking for and get around $15M or more next year. Any contract probably starts at 4 years(more likely 5) and $18M per year.

[Ennder]

How is market size not important when that's the single most limiting factor payroll wise?

 

Because the market size by itself is meaningless? If we are the smallest market in baseball and have an average payroll we aren't at some extra disadvantage due to market size. You can pretty much look at team payroll over the past few years and you'll get a better idea of things than worrying about the market size.

 

I would agree we need to get cheaper in the bullpen. Part of that is hopefully a scouting department that can pick/develop some pitching, something that we completely failed at under Jack Z. Most teams build at least half of their bullpen internally. The fact we've had what, 2 useful pitchers come up in our system in the past 5 years is hurting quite a bit. They managed to rebuild the offense since Melvin came to town but the pitching prospects we've had have been a disgrace so far.

[Invader3K]

trwi7 wrote: Melvin didn't get more efficient with his spending. The Hawkins and Hoffman signings prove that. That's over $10 million in payroll for 60 inning relievers.

That's basically what I alluded to in my post. However, one thing to keep in mind is that this could be Hoffman's last season as a Brewer (or even as an MLB player). Hawkins is signed through next season, but the dollar amount is not all that high. Riske will also be off the books. Hopefully by next season we'll have some cheap young quality talent in the bullpen so that Melvin won't have to spend that much money on relievers.

[monty57]

It seems like there are a lot of arms coming up in the system that are 0-2 years away from MLB that could help fill out the pitching side of the roster on the cheap. That's the main reason I'd like to see the Brewers extend Prince -- I think there are enough spots that will be cheap (including position players) for the duration of the hypothetical contract that the Brewers could function well. - TooLiveBrew

 

I guess it all really comes down to what sort of payday Prince is looking for. If he's looking to do a somewhat shorter contract now (say 4-5 years), with the mindset that he'll be in line for another monster payday when he's about 30 (a stance which could very well make him overall more money over the course of his career), it might be very doable for Milwaukee. If he and Boras are going to be dead set on looking for a blockbuster 8-10 year deal once he hits free agency, then the Brewers should probably say, "Good luck in your future endeavors." -Invader3k

 

These two posts sum up pretty well what I feel about whether the Brewers sould sign Prince.

 

But it takes two to tango. Prince's dismissal of any contract talk after Melvin said he wanted to look into it tells me that there is basically no chance he'll sign an extension prior to free agency. For the Brewers to get any kind of leverage in talks, they would have to do it now, when there is still some injury concern risk for Prince. What I mean by that is Prince could get hurt this season and lose out on lots of money. If he isn't worried about that risk (as is obvious by the fact that he doesn't want to discuss an extension), then the Brewers' main bargaining point is off the table. All they can offer right now that another team can't (other than paying a lot more than they have to) is that they can take the injury risk off the player by bearing it themself through a long-term contract.

 

It's sort of like life insurance. If you want to shift the future risk to the insurance company, you have to take some money out of your pocket today. If you aren't concerned about shifting that risk, you and your family will have more money... unless you die. Braun, Tulo, Longoria, etc all accepted less money now for more security. Prince didn't, and it doesn't look to me like he will. Neither is right or wrong.

 

That said, I think our front office is now going to have to start looking at contingency planning. What is the best way to get our value out of Prince. He will be a Brewer for at least part of this year. Should we trade him at the deadline if we're out of it? Should we trade him next offseason? Or, should we keep him into next season knowing that if we're in the race we are basically going to get nothing but a couple picks for him. If that's the case, we'd probably go into rebuild mode, as we'd lose his bat and the picks wouldn't help for years in the future. Add in that we'd probably "go for it all" in Prince's last year and trade prospects for a stopgap, and it could really hurt. In other words, I think we have to start preparing ourselves for this to be Prince's last year as a Brewer before he's traded .

[logan82]

If that's the case, we'd probably go into rebuild mode, as we'd lose his bat and the picks wouldn't help for years in the future.

 

This is the stance that really bothers me. The notion that if/when Fielder leaves we are going to have to rebuild. This is the chicken little thing I referenced a couple pages back. There are positives to not paying Fielder a large sum of money. Not having Fielder gives us financial flexibility which protects us from prospects not developing. Trading him lessens the negative impact when he leaves. Maybe somebody else signs Fielder and we are able to swoop in and get Gonzales for less money than Fielder. Sure losing Fielder is going to hurt. Remember the Sexon trade. If we can get good players back, we can minimize the step back or even take a step forward without Fielder.

 

Sure it sucks not being able to have franchise players. Only a handful of teams can do that. Even teams that can afford players don't always keep their own players. My only advice is not to get to attached to individual players. Either that or any one team.

[endaround]

Not paying Fielder means flexibility to pay for 1 above average player and 1 relief pitcher or two average players. Its not like 16-18m is going to bring in something huge in general.

[Invader3K]

The more I think about it, I really don't want to see Fielder leave after 2011 and just get comp picks. With the Brewers' luck, they won't even be first rounders. We've been screwed over many times in this regard (Linebrink, Sabathia, Sheets, etc).