Prince's Future

[crewcrazy]

That's not a bad contract offer, but the Howard contract might have ruined any shot the Brewers have at getting Prince to sign that deal. 5/$125M blows 6/109$M out of the water.

True, but Howard also has more hardware than Prince at this point -- Rookie of the Year, MVP, World Series ring, and a pair of NL pennants. That kind of thing tends to factor into contract negotiations, but I agree $109M guaranteed for Prince seems low for what he's demanding. I'd think he would at least want $120M guaranteed over those 6 years -- still significantly lower than the Howard deal, but more in line for what he's been rumored to be looking for.

[Invader3K]

This link has some further details on the supposed offer (I have no idea if they're legit or not, obviously):

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/messages/chrono/21774635?tag=pageRow;pageContainer

[mletto157]

That's not a bad contract offer, but the Howard contract might have ruined any shot the Brewers have at getting Prince to sign that deal. 5/$125M blows 6/109$M out of the water.

True, but Howard also has more hardware than Prince at this point -- Rookie of the Year, MVP, World Series ring, and a pair of NL pennants. That kind of thing tends to factor into contract negotiations, but I agree $109M guaranteed for Prince seems low for what he's demanding. I'd think he would at least want $120M guaranteed over those 6 years -- still significantly lower than the Howard deal, but more in line for what he's been rumored to be looking for.

Yes, but Prince is also significantly younger, which could prove to be a big advantage in contract negotiations. The chance of a dropoff coming are slim. In fact, he really is is still a few years away from his prime; whereas Howard is already in his prime.

 

[logan82]

No more than 5 years or $18M per year. The further you go over that, the less appealing the offer gets especially when you consider we could probably get Weeks for 4 years at $10M or less per year.

[monty57]

I agree that it's a fair offer which Prince/Boras will almost certainly turn down. That will give Melvin the public support to trade Fielder and he'll be gone before Opening Day 2011. Get us young pitching Doug!!

 

P.S. Prince would be on the other side of 30 at the end of that deal, so I hope that would be the maximum length the Brewers would offer for the off chance that Prince accepts it.

[Baldkin]

A fair offer?

 

Not for Prince. When he's almost for sure gonna get 5/125 or even 4/100 out of someone, 6/109 is nothing.

[monty57]

A fair offer?

 

Not for Prince. When he's almost for sure gonna get 5/125 or even 4/100 out of someone, 6/109 is nothing.

 

 

Not before 2012 he isn't, unless he gets traded and extended. He won't get $20-25MM in arby next year. I don't expect him to accept the offer, but if you assume he gets something like $14MM next year in arby, it's bascially a 5 year $95MM extension, or $19MM/year.

 

If he keeps up the torrid pace he's currently on, he'll have 25-30 HR this year, and limit his ability to ask for more than $20MM/year. Or, he could get injured next season, limiting his haul. But, again, he'll turn it down and the Brewers will trade him away.

[rluzinski]

That's not a bad contract offer, but the Howard contract might have ruined any shot the Brewers have at getting Prince to sign that deal. 5/$125M blows 6/109$M out of the water.

True, but Howard also has more hardware than Prince at this point -- Rookie of the Year, MVP, World Series ring, and a pair of NL pennants. That kind of thing tends to factor into contract negotiations

Agents can bring up anything they want but it's mostly a waste of time when other teams give it little or no value. I think most teams are smart enough these days to ignore team accomplishments when estimating the value of a player. Even individual awards have dubious value. Who cares if "selected members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America" thought howard was the best new NL player 5 years ago? What is his projected performance NOW and over the course of his contract? Perhaps I'm overestimating the intelligence of MLB teams these days but I think they've learned a lot over the last 10 or so years.

 

[Invader3K]

I suspect personal performance awards are a bigger factor in salary arbitration hearings than contract negotiations. Presumably the contract offer to Prince (assuming it's legit) would have performance incentives for winning an MVP award, etc.

 

Really, when we're already talking about a nine figure contract, I don't think a performance award is going to be that big a factor.

[sheethead]

I think most teams are smart enough these days to ignore team accomplishments when estimating the value of a player.

 

This could be true, but since the consensus around baseball is the Phillies overpaid Howard, I can see where people could deduct that he was paid extra due to his and the team's accomplishments over the last four or so years.

[Invader3K]

*bump*

 

I thought this would be worth re-examining. Through yesterday (192 AB's), Prince's slash line: .266/.395/.427/.822, 8 HR, 20 RBI.

 

Is that a bad line? No, of course not. Is it approximate of a player worth a $120-200 million contract? I think not. Yes, maybe he's just having a bit of a down year; but along with the bad defense Prince is bringing this season, I really hope Melvin and Attanasio take a step back and realize that trying to tie down such a huge part of the payroll to such a player is going to be bad business.

[naivin]

As it sits at the moment, that is a stat line, most MLB players would love to have, and as you said, he is having a bad year thus far. Its also meaningless, as you are looking at 2 months of a 4+ year career (unless you believe Casey McGehee should be given a 9 figure contract). I think its safe to assume, that he will end the year with 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, and an OPS of .900+. Is he worth that big contract? Yes, he is as worth it as anyone else. The guy has HoF talent. That said, I do not really want to see the Brewers signing him to such a contract. They are simply not the right team to do so.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the good news for the Brewers, financially, is that there's no realistic way Fielder & Boras accept any kind of extension. He's just too close to free agency at this point imo.

[JohnBriggs12]

I definitely think Fielder's slow start has cost him. Even if he returns to close to his 2009 form the rest of the way, his overall 2010 numbers aren't likely to be any better than his 2008 numbers.

 

There's a huge difference between an .879 OPS, 34 HR, 104 RBI and a 1.014 OPS, 46 HR, 141 RBI player. The former is a slightly above average 1B. The latter are HOF, Pujols numbers. A season like he had in 2008, would mean 2 of his last 3 years, he's not been a special player. That will reduce his value significantly, probably to around $17.5 million per year. He's not quite to that point yet, but he's getting there fast. Boras may decide to gamble that Prince will bounce back in 2011 and restore his value back to the $23-25 million per year range. That's a huge gamble, because if he's just a little above average again in 2011, then his value may sink to the $14 million a year range.

[Invader3K]

Briggs, that's basically what I was getting at. Thanks for summarizing it better than I could.

 

If he has another season like he did in '08 (which he seems to be on pace for), he simply isn't going to be in that A-Rod/Pujols payday range, or even a Joe Mauer one. Maybe not even a Ryan Howard type deal (which I think was seen as a stupid contract by most of baseball). Given his level of play this year, coupled with his body type and defensive shortcomings, and I just don't see anyone ponying up the potentially franchise crippling mega-bucks contract that Fielder and Boras insist he's entitled too.

[monty57]

Which also means that the Brewers would likely get a lot less by waiting for the offseason to trade him rather than trading him now.

 

Barring major injury, Boras will not lower his expectations from what he'd want from the Brewers for an extension. The only thing that would make him accept less would be going on the open market and not getting the bids he'd like. To me, Prince's season is showing that the Brewers' offense will be fine with someone else at 1B. In 2009, 19 of the 22 (86.36%) qualified 1B (min 500 PA) had an OPS of .842 or higher. We should be able to find someone who can put up decent numbers. The greatest value Prince can provide to this team is by bringing us pitching back in a trade.

[Invader3K]

I agree completely. I really hope Melvin and Attanasio are realistic at this point, and decide to shop Prince sooner than later.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Here's what I see happening:

 

Around July 1, the Brewers brass starts to give up on the season and the first Prince calls start coming in. Prince is probably on pace for a 2008 type year. They decide to look around for multiple young arms in return. They find that the market has changed and every other team in MLB views young arms as gold. They are willing, but can't get what they want in return so they wait.

 

In the meantime, they try and cut a longer term deal with Prince. Players who hire Boras do so because they want the highest price for their services. There will be no hometown discount here. Boras also views his players as a portfolio of clients and tries to maximize his overall fee. If one guy or two gets sacrificed by overplaying their hand or gets hurt, so be it. The message has been sent that Boras will drive his client into the wall if he doesn't milk you for the last penny. No way this late in the game Boras goes for 6/109 or slightly higher in negotiations. No deal is struck and the Brewers realize he will go FA. They sign a mid-upper teen one year deal.

 

The off season has the same issues as during the season. Teams will not part with enough arms to make an offer the Brewers can't refuse. 50/50 they take a disappointing deal with one decent AA arm, a lower level flyer and a couple AAAA depth type guys. The alternative is to go into the year trying to be competitive with Prince and wait for mid-year to go through it all again. At that point it's a close call on the draft choices or a lesser deal than they could have gotten through the off season.

 

If I thought he could be had for close to 6/109 I'd sign him since I'm bearish on what they can get for him in return. I doubt they can so it probably makes sense to shop him. I'm just not that optimistic they will get the kind of deal we are all hoping for. That what makes this really tough for the Brewers brass IMO.

[endaround]

Both Chicago teams and the Red Sox won't really have openings until the offseason. I don't see a great in season deal presenting itself. Hart likely has a higher in season trade value since he'll cost less and their are more teams scrambling for a corner OFer vs a 1B.

[monty57]

One of the main reasons I think a mid-season deal would bring more in return is the crunch teams will feel. If Prince is on, he will make any team's offense better. If a team is in the playoff hunt, Prince could very well be the piece that pushes them over the edge. Melvin needs to get a bidding war going, such as Boston vs Tampa. If Tampa gets Prince early on this season, they could greatly increase their chance of pushing Boston out of the playoffs, and then they could flip Prince next offseason. Boston doesn't want to watch Tampa and the Yankees in the playoffs, so they may be willing to up the ante to at the very least make Tampa overpay for Fielder. Throw in that Gonzalez will be out of the picture if San Diego continues to play well, Howard signed long-term and Pujols isn't going anywhere, and the supply of big bats on the market (the kind that can make a difference a la Holliday last season) gets pretty thin.

 

I hope Melvin targets a couple of really good AA arms in a trade rather than someone already on a MLB roster. During the season, a playoff hopeful team may be more willing to trade a pitcher who is not going to help them in their playoff hunt for a piece (Fielder) who will help them to the playoffs. I don't know what Fielder will eventually bring in trade, but it makes sense to me that trading him late June / early July should bring back the best return. I know Melvin's credo is "you get more for a pitcher during the season and a position player during the offseason," but that can't be an absolute. As far as the Brewers waiting and taking the draft picks, ask Washington how that worked for Soriano. The team (and their GM) were lambasted by fans and media alike for that move. Unless Fielder is an integral part of our making the playoffs next year, Brewers fans would boycott the team if Fielder walks without being traded.

 

Endaround, I agree that Hart should be shopped as well. He has greatly increased his trade value, and I hope the Brewers can capitalize on that.