Prince's Future

[NievesNoNO]

Secondly, I'll repeat an earlier point. What is Prince doesn't have a monster year? You can't tell me that won't diminish his contract size, number of bidders, what you can back in return, etc. I mean, what if he hits .265 with 28 HRs? Sure, GMs will look at his entire body of work, but how excited can a team be to give $200MM to a player coming off a less than stellar season?

I can't see him slipping that much, but I get the point. Even if he repeats his 2008, it'll diminish his value. I think he'll turn it around, but agree that I don't think you can completely discount the notion that he might be pressing a bit. I think Boras did him a real disservice by coming out and stating what he thinks Fielder should be paid. I mean the guy all ready is trying to live up to a contract that he doesn't even have. He can say he's not thinking about it, but you know that's a lie. That being said he's had to live up to his name his whole life and has become the player everyone said he would be, possibly better, so I'm not sure how much of an affect this is actually having on his game.

 

 

[zzzmanwitz]

I can't see him slipping that much, but I get the point, even if he repeats his 2008, it'll diminish his value.

 

FWIW, through each of their first 4 seasons, Fielder and Teixeira seem to be very similar in terms of value. Here is their WAR over that time.

 

Fielder

2006 - 1.5

2007 - 5.1

2008 - 2.8

2009 - 6.8

Total - 16.2

 

Teixeira

2003 - 2.1

2004 - 4.4

2005 - 5.9

2006 - 3.4

Total - 15.8

 

In 2007, Teixeira had a 4.1 WAR. Prince would need to do a little better than his 2008 season to keep in line with Teixeira and still truly deserve a $200+ Million contract.

[monty57]

So then for those of you who think we're getting top notch pitching in return for Fielder--you're depending on the stupidity of other teams. Why would I want Fielder when I've got Smoak? He's significantly cheaper; he's controllable, and I've got two 100mph arms coming up shortly to fill in the rotation. Because I can win? I don't believe it. Not even close. Keeping younf stud pitchers will get me closer to contending for playoff spots than slugging 1st basemen, who afterall, are not that hard to replace.

 

You play the game to win the World Series. It only happens to one team each year, and many franchises go a long time (or for the life of the franchise in the Brewers case) without ever winning one. Throw in the unfair economic system which allows "big market" teams to win an unequitable amount of championships, and everyone else has to give up a little extra when they really think they have a chance to win. It is not merely "stupidity" that causes owners and GMs to make in-season trades to better their teams, it's the thought that the trade will increase the team's ability to reach the playoffs, and ultimately the Holy Grail... a World Series championship. If a team like Texas really thinks they can do it (I have no idea if they think this), then they probably realize that this could be the only World Series they'll see for 100 years, and that may be worth a AA arm who may or may not ever be a decent MLB pitcher.

Plus, not every team plays by the same rules. Sure, prospects have value, but so do proven MLB players, especially the few that reach Prince's level. Is one GM "smart" because he values prospects as much as you and another "stupid" because they feel that Prince would give them a good shot at a World Series and that shot is worth some prospects? It is impossible to say right now who will be in the playoff race, who will get injured, and all the other factors that will arise over the next 2-3 months, but I think it is a certainty that every team in the majors would love to have Prince Fielder, and at least one of those teams would be willing to trade for him.

Finally, if it's true that all Prince would bring in trade is "a starting pitcher who has started the arby process and who may turn expensive shortly. Or we'll get a high upside guy with some MLB experience and an injury history," then why don't we just trade Manny Parra for a 1.000+ OPS player to help out our offense so that we have a better shot at the playoffs? When did AA/AAA players start becoming more valuable to a franchise than the superstar players on the MLB roster? I agree with you that building a strong franchise is important, but I can't believe that Amaury Rivas is more important to the Brewers than Prince Fielder. Right now, every major league team has 100 players between A & AAA ball, and very few of them (even the top rated ones) will ever see significant MLB playing time. Of these 3,000 players, maybe a handful will reach Prince's level of play (remember that Prince is the youngest player in the history of the game to hit 50 HR). Therefore, even if we were to trade Prince for a team's top 2 or 3 pitching prospects, odds are that we'd still "lose" the trade, and conversely the team trading the prospects would therefore "win" the trade. However, if we are not in the race this year, it's probably worth it for us to trade him for the uncertain future of prospects, as having Prince on a losing team isn't worth the potential brought from a group of prospects.

[logan82]

When did AA/AAA players start becoming more valuable to a franchise than the superstar players on the MLB roster?

 

They aren't in any one year. A guy you will have multiple years is more valuable than a guy who will only be with you for the next year. Especially if you are not going to be competing for a playoff spot.

[BrewCrewForever]

The one thing I would for sure not do is trade him at next years deadline. He has to be traded this year at the deadline or before next season. I don't want a return like Atlanta got for Teixiera. That would stink.

[rluzinski]

When did AA/AAA players start becoming more valuable to a franchise than the superstar players on the MLB roster?

 

They aren't in any one year. A guy you will have multiple years is more valuable than a guy who will only be with you for the next year. Especially if you are not going to be competing for a playoff spot.

And that superstar may be already getting paid what his production is worth, making him worth very little in a trade. In contrast, a minor league prospect is going to be getting paid much less than his future projected production for many years to come. In summary:

 

Value of production - Salary = Net worth in trade.

 

 

[Mr QL]

I still think there is hope in resigning Prince but if they do go the trade route and don't get acceptable return, I'd rather try to make one last run next season(I'm assuming that we'll take a major step back without him) and take my chances in free agency. One more season + draft picks are better than 2nd rate prospects.

 

Prince is an MVP caliber player but the reason I'm afraid we won't get good value for him is simply because teams won't trade the farm for a guy they have no shot in resigning or that they could just sign in free agency.

[monty57]

A guy you will have multiple years is more valuable than a guy who will only be with you for the next year.

 

While I get the gist of this, and while six years of Player X is worth more than one year of Player X, six years of Player X is not necessarily worth one year of Player Y. One year of Prince has more value than six years of someone who never makes the majors, so we need to find value that is somewhere near the value we'd get from an extra 1.5 years of Prince plus two draft picks.

 

At the end of my last post, I tried to tie up that if the Brewers aren't in the race this year, I think they should look to trade Prince. If that scenario occurs, the maximum value the Brewers could receive from Prince (in my opinion) should come from a trade. For a team competing for a playoff spot / potential world championship, the maximum value of a superstar is in the extra wins said superstar would help them generate. There are always plenty of teams that believe those extra wins this year are worth potential wins years down the road. If you look at the last few seasons, the advent of the Wild Card has created a situation where we've seen a lack of sellers at the deadline. Limited supply with excess demand drives prices up.

 

However, even though I think the Brewers should trade Prince this season if they're out of the race, I still realize that most AA/AAA players will never play in the major leagues, and therefore have essentially zero value to a MLB team. At the same time, it looks like Prince will have a great career. There is a very good chance that Prince will have more career MLB HR's than the entire Huntsville roster, which probably has more MLB-bound players than most AA teams. I guess every deal (trade, contract, etc.) is done based on "projected future value." The notion that Prince is extremely likely to continue to be good while minor leaguers are much more of a crapshoot is why someone will give Prince a long-term deal at over $20MM/year, while it's much riskier to make long-term bets on a minor leaguer. Heck, even someone like Gamel, who was "MLB-ready" went from #1 prospect in a good organization to "who knows if this guy will make it" status within the course of one season. Every year, there are "can't miss" prospects who fail miserably. We could very easily trade Prince for two or three highly touted prospects and end up getting zero value out of them, or we could end up getting three All-Stars. The risk variance in MLBer-for-MiLBers is much greater for the team receiving the MiLBers, so they should get some risk premium for this.

 

I'm all for long-term "Braun-style" deals for young stars, so I don't want to sound like I'm disagreeing too much. In fact, I probably agree in most instances with what I may seem to be arguing against. Teams, particularly small/mid-market teams, need to build from within and prospects are the way to do it. However, the ultimate goal is for success at the Major League level, and it takes good MLB players to achieve that. Use the minor leagues to get major leaguers at times, and use the major league to stockpile minor leaguers at others. If we're in a situation this year of using major leaguers (Prince, Bush, Davis, Counsell, Hart, whomever) to stockpile minor leaguers, some team will be in a position to use minor leaguers to obtain major league talent. If there are buyers for your selling, especially if the number of buyers exceed the number of sellers (which has been the case in the recent past), your price will go up and you will be able to find an equitable deal. If you can't, and all you're offered is an injury-riddled #3 starter, you play out Prince's tenure and take the draft picks. I think/hope that Melvin would be able to get better than that, but that's nothing but opinion, and I won't take it too hard if I'm wrong... I'll just get another season and a half of watching Prince as a Brewer.

[logan82]

Draft picks fail at a very high rate, especially pitchers. You have a much better idea what you are getting with AAA or AA players with the added benefit that they are probably 2-3 years closer to being ready than draft picks. So you are taking a chance on 1.5 years of Fielder + nothing or very little.

[FVBrewerFan]

Good post Monty. I think it's important to note that even if the AA players the Brewers get in return for Fielder are busts, they're still getting something for him. That something is $20MM in available salary each year. Now, if that's spent wisely you could potentially sign 3 players (current or free agent) who could benefit the team as much as Fielder. Plus 1B "opens up" for a player like Gamel or someone else who wouldn't be there otherwise.

[endaround]

No you can't. Fielder is likely to come in under his true value. That doesn't mean the Brewers can match the years (but I don't think he'll get 8years/$200m from anyone), but at $20m a year Fielder is arguably slightly underpaid.

[monty57]

Draft picks fail at a very high rate, especially pitchers. You have a much better idea what you are getting with AAA or AA players with the added benefit that they are probably 2-3 years closer to being ready than draft picks. So you are taking a chance on 1.5 years of Fielder + nothing or very little.

Absolutely agree. The closer you get to the majors, the more "certainty" you have. I'd much rather get some AA/AAA talent than the draft picks, but the picks do have some value, as does having Fielder on the team. My original post was to Tbadder's assertation that we'd only get injured goods for Prince, who right now has as much "certainty" as anyone in baseball. Whoever we would trade Prince to would have a very good idea what they're getting, wheter it be for a year, a year & a half, or if they can extend him.

 

We would be adding a great deal of uncertainty as to what we'd be getting. The uncertainty would be far less than we would have by drafting players, but it would still be there. That's why we should be able to obtain some "risk premium" in a deal. Sure, we're getting six years of the player, but that player may not be in the majors for six years. Trading in a "guarantee" for a question is where the whole idea of risk premium comes from. The more certainty you get, the less the premium. If we trade for a Rookie baller, he'd better have an awful high ceiling. If we get someone with MLB experience, he wouldn't have quite the ceiling because we know more of what we're getting.

 

FVBrewerFan, that's a very good point. Add to that that we don't have to pay signing bonuses if we get AA/AAA guys instead of draft picks, and it makes me want a trade even more. One small thing. The three players would have to have as much value as Fielder and the other two players they're replacing, which wouldn't be too much if one of those replaced is Suppan :-)

[Menotti80]

maybe this thread should be locked until prince remembers how to rake again...

[Tedaldtada]

I'm going to get Monty's back here. When, I think that the Red Sox could easily have Santana and Halladay instead of Dice-K and Lackey, it just cracks me up. They'd probably have another 2 rings each. But Clay Bucholz is untouchable. Or Casey Kelley. Or Lars. Or whoever. If I'm a big market team, I'd take the 26 year old slugger with solid contact AND OBP skills everytime. He also happens to have a half decade long track record for ML success. Being in a big market, I'd know that I can resign him if I want, and probably gain a leg-up because I had traded for him. I'd also know that I can spend big on the amatuer market and easily replace the talent, and that's all unproven minor leaguers are, that was lost through the trade.

 

Who does Atlanta miss so bad from that Teixera trade? Salty is not a regular and McCann is above average to excellent for a C. Andrus and Y. Escobar are wash at best, but I would lean Escobar. Harrison couldn't crack that rotation. The only guy worth missing is Feliz, qnd that's understandable. He is a two pitch late inning relief pitcher though. Not a clear cut Cy Young favorite or anything.

 

I get the whole cost argument, but I have a big market team, what do I care? My revenues aren't going up because I have a sweet AA team or a stacked minor league system. Prince's addition sparked a revenue spike. Where are those figures when determining the cost/win stuff?

[Invader3K]

I agree with your take, Ted. The current prospect hoarding by certain teams is getting to be rather ridiculous. My fear is that if it continues, we won't be able to get close to a fair deal if and when Prince is finally traded.

[Roscoe Chill]

Prince has a sore hand apparently...probably due to banging out concrete and wood in the dugout after a bad AB.

[TheCrew07]

So then for those of you who think we're getting top notch pitching in return for Fielder--you're depending on the stupidity of other teams. Why would I want Fielder when I've got Smoak? He's significantly cheaper; he's controllable, and I've got two 100mph arms coming up shortly to fill in the rotation. Because I can win? I don't believe it. Not even close. Keeping younf stud pitchers will get me closer to contending for playoff spots than slugging 1st basemen, who afterall, are not that hard to replace.

Why does it have to be "stupidity"? The Brewers are giving up their best hitter, a guy who's already 50 HR in an MLB season, they can move him to DH and he's already peaking on his progression curve. Smoak isn't a finished product and if they think Prince gives them the best chance to make a run, then why not make Sabathia type trade? I realize I'm in the minority here and most people like those kind of deals.

 

Texas has a ton of young pitching, they can afford to move one of those guys if they want, I didn't go past the #2 guy on my list, they also have Scheppers (another guy that can hit 99 legitimately) , Kiker (who's velocity is down but still works in the low 90s), Ross (LHP works in the low 90s), Gutierrez (head case but gets compared to Darryl Kile and touches 96), and Font (another guy who hits 100 legit but has control issues, think Jeffress) all in their top 10. I'm not sure where this opinion that teams have to be stupid to trade pitching comes from, you can only have so many guys in 5 man rotation. TB has already moved pitching, I don't think they were stupid to do so, and hopefully in the near future the Brewers will have some surplus arms that they can move for an impact bat. I wouldn't consider that chain of events stupid either.

 

You're looking at this backwards... if you have some surplus pitching then you also have the most ammunition to acquire the elite players who may be on the block, like when we acquired Sabathia, only we had the best bats available for trade in that case.

 

This is less about stupidity than it is about matching up needs.

[paul253]

This is less about stupidity than it is about matching up needs.

Couldn't be said any better. There are some teams that need offense as badly as we need pitching. San Francisco comes to mind. There are also some teams that have more good pitching prospects then they have available spots in the rotation. Look at the Brewers and their catching prospects. If most teams had Angel Salome or Jonathon Lucroy they'd never consider trading them. Good hitting catchers are rare. But since we have them both, it's not unlikely that one of them gets traded to fill a need.

[BrewCrewForever]

maybe this thread should be locked until prince remembers how to rake again...

Why? Do you believe that people are saying they want to trade Prince just because he is in a slump right now? Because I don't believe that to be the case. I think we all know Prince is gonna rake again and would love to keep him around. But we are realists and know that he probably won't be around so it is best to get the most value for him.

[NievesNoNO]

Invader3K[/b]]I agree with your take, Ted. The current prospect hoarding by certain teams is getting to be rather ridiculous. My fear is that if it continues, we won't be able to get close to a fair deal if and when Prince is finally traded.

I'm all right with those teams hanging on to prospects too long because in the end I think it hurts their franchise. A player will only be a prospect for so long. A lot of those are players who a team trys to build up to be better than what they are in my opinion, but I get what you're saying regarding getting value for Prince. I actually think Gamel is amost out of prospect status. The Brewers have handled his situation poorly. Either he should be playing now to find out if he is a good player or they should've traded him when his prospect status was at it's peak. A lot is made of getting full value when trading current players at their peak, but I think the same is true for prospects. I'm not one to get up in arms about burning service time of a player if they've proven what they've needed in the minors. Bring them up and start working on a long term deal. I guess that's for another topic though so I'll stop there.

 

I do believe that if we trade Prince this deadline we'll end up with a fair deal, otherwise I think we may as well just hold on to him and take the picks. Overall I think we probably tend to overvalue our own players, but Prince might be an exception. We probably undervalue what he's really worth to this team and how other teams view him. He's right there with Howard and Texiera in my book. I disagree with those who say that the 20 million we save could be used to sign multiple free agents who might help us more than just him. Twenty million in free agency will buy 2 average players. Now if you want to argue, as some have, that the 20 million could be used to lock up maybe Weeks and Escobar I think that's possibly a fair trade off. Prince is they type of bat that some franchises wait generations for to come through their system.

 

[logan82]

Prince's addition sparked a revenue spike.

 

Are you saying that when the Brewers added Fielder there was a revenue spike? If so I mostly disagree. I don't think Fielder was the cause of that spike. He came up at a time when the team improved. We didn't have that huge increase in attendance till his 2nd and third years and that coincided with the team actually having a chance at a winning record and the playoffs.

 

 

The closer you get to the majors, the more "certainty" you have. I'd

much rather get some AA/AAA talent than the draft picks

 

Of course to somewhat refute my own statement even top prospects fail. Not as often as draft picks though.

[endaround]

Keep in mind that say if Cliff Lee is moved this summer he'll be replacing a guy who is likely barely a major league player. Fielder would likely be repalcing a decent hitter. Now add the fact that the drop off from Lee to the next available guy can be huge while Fielder to Derrek Lee or Adam Dunn or Lance Berkman isn't.

[TheCrew07]

Yep guys that can't even break an .800 OPS like Chris Davis or a guy that hasn't done it since 2007 in Garrett Atkins, that's tough company to keep.

[Tedaldtada]

Logan, I'm saying that if the Rangers/Red Sox/etc. Added Prince in a trade, they could naturally expect a revenue spike. Adding a dynamic hitter will tend to do that.

[logan82]

Logan, I'm saying that if the Rangers/Red Sox/etc. Added Prince in a trade, they could naturally expect a revenue spike. Adding a dynamic hitter will tend to do that.

Making the team better will tend to do that regardless of how it is done. Fielder has very little draw to fans beyond making a team better.