Prince's Future

[Invader3K]

So it begs the question. 1) where might he be traded to next off season and 2) where might he sign as a FA.

 

Boston makes the most sense as they are loaded with pitching and David Ortiz will be nearer to the end come 2011-2012. Although, it will probably be the Yankees and we'll probably take back three pieces of high A junk that Buster Olney loves.

I'm not sure if the Yankees are a fit at all, what with Texeira locked up long term. I suppose they could use him as a DH, but I'm not sure Fielder is ready to accept that role at this point in his career. They also have Jeter, Rodriguez, Swisher, etc. on hand as possible future DHs.

[kramnoj]

Tell me what the difference is.

 

One easy difference is that nowhere in the selected quote is the phrase "But whatever you have to pay for it, it will be worth it". That's just you making an assumption.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think if you truely read Fielder's comments in the article, you can tell that he is ready to enter free agency and is prepared to play for a different team. He wants to play for an annual contender, a place where his family will like and a place that is going to pay him.

 

He wont be signing any long term deal with the brewers.

 

They have as much chance as they did signing CC Sabathia last off season. Not gonna happen.

The jury is still out on whether the Brewers are an "annual contender". They certainly were in 2007 and 2008. It's quite possible they can be in 2010 and 2011. They certainly haven't been as removed from contention as say the Rangers were in the 3 seasons leading up to Teixeira's departure when the Rangers were sub .500 and double digits out of first place each year.

 

What happens this year and next could affect Fielder's and the Brewer's thinking. Surely if the Brewers don't contend, he'll look elsewhere and if you are the Brewers you think that you haven't won with him so it's not as great a loss. But if the Brewers contend and make another playoff appearance in the next 2 seasons, and Fielder puts up numbers comparable to 2009, then you're talking about Fielder in terms of Pujols and Mauer status. While either of those guys may still leave, the consensus is both want to stay with their current teams and why not? Both the Cards and Twins contend frequently if not annually. What's also working in the Brewer favor is that the market for Fielder may not be what it was for Teixeira either. Howard may be available at the same time Fielder is and it's already noted the Yankees with Teixeira, and the Cardinals with Pujols/Holliday are two perennial contenders who are not likely in the Fielder bidding.

[sheethead]

The Brewers simply cannot afford to sign Prince for what he will be demanding, assuming the market stays where it is in that the top two or three free agents get insane deals and the rest get the scraps. Prince will be a top two or three free agent in 2012 assuming he stays healthy. The Brewers cannot retain these types of players and expect to be both competitive and viable. I just hope Doug gets to fleece whoever wants him either next offseason or midway through 2012. The Red Sox would be my team of choice to fleece, and they just might be ripe for the taking at that time.

[brewerguy71]

I wouldnt be shocked to see a move like Teixiera had where he went to one team for a playoff push, and then was traded a 2nd time to another team.

 

One team that might be a nice fit, if they needed a big push for the playoffs would be the Rays, who would then deal him during next offseason. I could see the A's or Rangers making that first move as well, with the 2nd trade going to a more traditional, large market club. All 3 of those teams have plenty of young, prospect pitching that could be of great help to the farm system.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't see anything from Fielder's comments in that linked article that indicate anything. Of course he's not going to come out & say, 'Man, I'm outta here asap', or 'There's no way I'd ever leave Milwaukee'. I have to agree with Melvin. There just isn't a story to this right now.

[rluzinski]

Tell me what the difference is.

 

One easy difference is that nowhere in the selected quote is the phrase "But whatever you have to pay for it, it will be worth it". That's just you making an assumption.

 

He said that it would be the best thing to happen to the Brewers' organization in a long time if they can sign Prince. How can he make that determination when he doesn't know what it would cost to sign him? How is that fundamentally different than my example of deciding that someone should buy a house without knowing its price?

[kramnoj]

How can he make that determination when he doesn't know what it would cost to sign him?

 

If you have questions about what someone said, you could simply ask them. Mocking them for something they didn't say doesn't seem to have any useful purpose.

 

If I had said something along the lines that prompted you to post, I might have implicitly meant that Attanasio wouldn't sign Prince to a deal that isn't good for the franchise, therefore if Prince signs, it would really be great.

[JoeHova]

He said that it would be the best thing to happen to the Brewers' organization in a long time if they can sign Prince. How can he make that determination when he doesn't know what it would cost to sign him? How is that fundamentally different than my example of deciding that someone should buy a house without knowing its price?

The difference is that it is implied that no one is going to sign Prince for $50 million a year or something like that. There is a far greater relative spread in house asking prices than there is among star baseball free agents. The Teixiera contract is the likely baseline for Prince (he could end up a little over that or he could end up a little under that). Many people feel like that might be a worthwhile contract to sign Prince to. If Prince is worth $20-$25 million per year to another team, it's hard to see how he's not also worth that to the Brewers. Either a guy is worth the money or not and I would bet on Prince earning his salary over the next 8-10 years. Obviously Prince would take up less of some teams projected budgets but if the Brewers are going to be involved in free agency, they might as well pay the money for a guy who will actually probably be worth it, rather than Suppan types.

 

Also, the reason it would be the best thing to happen to the Brewers in years is because he is probably the best non-Yount or Molitor Brewer ever and we all remember what happened when Molitor left. The team's attendance dropped to last in the league and didn't rebound to previous levels until the team switched leagues and happened to move into the division that had two guys chasing Roger Maris throughout the summer.

[Tbadder]

I'm totally against signing this guy. If you sign him long term you doom the team long term. It'll be the same every year--surround Prince with a lot of nothing and hope. They got lucky on Braun. Braun was stupid; it ain't gonna happen again. Gallardo is the more valuable of the two and he should be more cost effective in terms of overall price. Prince is one injury away or two years away from being strictly a DH. The 1st team that gives you a can't miss prospect and 2 or 3 projectable arms or bats you gotta trade the guy. This is Milwaukee and one can never lose sight of that. If Yount was here now, in his prime, I'd be saying the same thing. Free agency is just too out of control for a bunch of small fries like us.

[kramnoj]

Braun was stupid

 

Braun was risk averse and wise. Compare Braun to Hart. If Hart doesn't have a good year this year, he may never earn big money again. How much guaranteed money did he turn away because he wanted to maximize his potential? Braun potentially gave up huge amounts of money, but he is set for life, and may still get another big payday after this contract.

 

Free agency is just too out of control for a bunch of small fries like us.

 

If Prince stays with Milwaukee, it won't be as a free agent, so this doesn't really apply. Besides, Milwaukee can support a $80M+ payroll, and it isn't realistic to think they can field an entire team of homegrown talent. Teams need FA to supplement whatever their farm doesn't provide.

[endaround]

The Brewers are going to pay Suppan and Hall $22m or so this year to provide zero wins. The Brewers can easily afford Fielder providing 5-6 wins at $18m. Should they do so is an entirely different issue but to pretend the Brewers can't afford to do so is wrong.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm totally against signing this guy. If you sign him long term you doom the team long term. It'll be the same every year--surround Prince with a lot of nothing and hope. They got lucky on Braun. Braun was stupid; it ain't gonna happen again. Gallardo is the more valuable of the two and he should be more cost effective in terms of overall price. Prince is one injury away or two years away from being strictly a DH. The 1st team that gives you a can't miss prospect and 2 or 3 projectable arms or bats you gotta trade the guy. This is Milwaukee and one can never lose sight of that. If Yount was here now, in his prime, I'd be saying the same thing. Free agency is just too out of control for a bunch of small fries like us.

I don't quite get the defeatist attitude that some on here have about Milwaukee. I don't know how you can read anything in to Fielder's comments. Who's to say that he doesn't like playing in Milwaukee and will give the team some kind of hometown discount? He doesn't always seem like a 'New York' type of guy to me anyway, actually seems kind of quiet and shy. Yes, there is the 'Boras factor', but Fielder fired his previous agent, so that shows that he has a little backbone in such matters. It was the same deal with Yount in '89. Everyone was talking about how he wanted to go back home to California, or take the big bucks the Tribune was offering, but he ended up taking a fair contract in Milwaukee. You can debate whether or not that deal worked out, but Yount was a lot older at that point than Fielder will be.

 

Throw in the fact that outside of a few big contracts, the free agent

market was very slow this year, and the fact that the team should have

a bunch of money coming off the books, Fielder should be signed. The way I look at it, give Prince what he's making this year, plus what Suppan is making and you are right in the ballpark of what he will get. Once other bad contracts like Hall and Riske are off the books, there is another $10 million available to fill holes (over $20 million when Wolf is gone). How will this cripple the team?

 

By the way....no way is Gallardo 'more valuable' at this point. He may be in the future, but he hasn't even been able to pitch a full season yet.

[TooLiveBrew]

Fielder fired his previous agent, so that shows that he has a little backbone in such matters.

 

Didn't he fire... his dad after he found out Cecil was taking his money?

[RockCoCougars]

Fielder fired his previous agent, so that shows that he has a little backbone in such matters.

 

Didn't he fire... his dad after he found out Cecil was taking his money?

True. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that Prince also had the same guy who represents Weeks in between Cecil and Boras.

 

Bottom line.... do not trade Prince for scraps, and then use the money to sign two mediocre 'guys'.

[mletto157]

If Prince is worth $20-$25 million per year to another team, it's hard to see how he's not also worth that to the Brewers. Either a guy is worth the money or not and I would bet on Prince earning his salary over the next 8-10 years. Obviously Prince would take up less of some teams projected budgets but if the Brewers are going to be involved in free agency, they might as well pay the money for a guy who will actually probably be worth it

 

There's a difference in something being worth a certain dollar amount and realistically being able to afford it. Back to Russ's house analogy... I'm sure that $500K house is worth it, but the mortgage payment would be 75% of my salary. Is it technically feasible that I could buy that house and pay for it? Yes. But would it be a smart decision? No. That's where I see this conundrum. IMO Fielder would definitely be worth his contract. And yes, the Brewers could feasibly afford to pay him. However, I don't think it would be a smart decision to do so because it would REALLY limit our flexability, and probably hinder our ability to field a competitive team year-in and year-out.

 

This is why he would be a better fit to another team... Some other teams can afford to pay that salary and still have plenty of financial flexability. Same as some people can afford to buy a $500K house and blink an eye over it. The analogy holds true.

[RockCoCougars]

Yes, but doesn't paying Suppan, Wolf, Riske and Hall over $30 million combined this season limit payroll flexibility already? I'm sorry, but I have no faith that Melvin would take the money saved by not signing Fielder and spend it wisely. His track record signing major league free agents has been spotty at best. Where else will that money go? Braun is locked in, and outside of maybe Weeks all the young talent on the team will be pretty cheap for the next several years.

[rluzinski]

If I had said something along the lines that prompted you to post, I might have implicitly meant that Attanasio wouldn't sign Prince to a deal that isn't good for the franchise, therefore if Prince signs, it would really be great.

 

If you relied on that kind of assumption, doesn't the statement essentially reduce down to, "Provided that you assume it's good, it will be good"? If that's all he meant, I am forced to agree and apologize for the misunderstanding. I took his statement to imply that whatever Prince ends up being signed for (by any team), he will be more than worth it. If that really is what he meant, I couldn't disagree more.

 

If Prince is worth $20-$25 million per year to another team, it's hard to see how he's not also worth that to the Brewers.

 

I don't think that's true at all. It all comes down to how well a franchise can leverage the wins that Prince's projected performance represents, into revenue. Prince's projected performance is worth one thing to the Red Sox, another to the Royals and still another to the Yomiuri Giants. If Prince makes a crappy team win 70 games instead of 65, that is not worth the same as making a team win 90 games and making the playoffs.

 

I would bet on Prince earning his salary over the next 8-10 years.

 

I've seen too many free agents overvalued to make that kind of assumption.

[mletto157]

But you're looking at 4 players there. Risky got hurt which no one could have predicted... Wolf hasn't even played a game for the Brewers yet, and I think could easily earn his salary... Suppan was a bad signing, but filled a need at the time and more importantly put the Brewers on the map. Hall was a bad signing, but one that A LOT of fans wanted to make at the time.

 

You don't make up for a few bad signings by making another bad signing. As the saying goes... two wrongs don't make a right.

[HiAndTight]

That would also be the best thing to happen to the Milwaukee Brewers organization in a long time.

Reds fans probably thought the same thing back in 2000 when they signed Ken Griffey Jr to a big free agent contract. But the "best" thing that it did was cripple the franchise financially for years and prevent them from fielding a competitive team.

 

The article doesnt really seem to say too much. Fielder, smartly, is keeping a low profile about the whole thing. Reality of the matter is that if the team is anywhere near what Pecota has projected for the Brewers on July 31, 2010, Fielder will probably be dealt to a team in contention for a very nice, farm system revitalizing, prospect laden deal.

I would rather take a chance crippling the franchise by signing perhaps the best player that it has ever produced. Despite his size, Prince has been very durable, so I'll take the risk that he gets injured. He will only be 27 when he's up for free agency, so I don't buy into the 'he will get too big and be an injury risk and/or unable to play first base' argument. I don't want to rebuild by taking a prospect laden deal. It seems to me that most of the time these superstar for prospects deals don't work out very well for the team taking prospects (unless you're Florida, I guess). The fact is that Suppan and Hall will be both off the books in Prince's free agent year. That should free up almost $20 million of payroll. I say wait and see what Mauer ends up getting from the Twins and make Prince a similar offer this season.

 

Griffey was traded to the Reds, by the way. I think they dumped a big contract on him right away thereafter though.

 

It also seems to me that often times these gigantic deals handed out by small market teams don't work out very well. I love Prince Fielder, but the only way I'm on board with signing him is if your entire farm system takes a giant leap forward this year which is very possible. You have a number of arms who establish themselves as viable big league starters and frontline starters moving forward. The biggest factor there is health.

 

You have a couple of big time hitting prospects take the next step. Brett Lawrie, Taylor Green, Kentrail Davis and our young catcher combo jump to mind.

 

And you lock up Yovani Gallardo to a Braun-like deal.

 

If you have high cieling prospects to supplement the players you'll lose when you have the payroll constrictions, and if you have Gallardo locked up, the one player most fear will be a casualty of a Prince signing, THEN I'd be a little bit more agreeable to a contract for Prince at 22-25 million per(though the FA crop at 1B will likley push that # down).

 

If however you have a very thin minor league system and are in danger of paying two players to hit lots of HR's for a sinking ship, I'd rather back up a bit, take as much as we can for Prince and kinda collect ourselves while gearing up for another run.

 

 

th your post. I don't know how you can not "buy" the potential for his size to create long term injury implications. Mo Vaughn was quite honestly a better player for the Red Sox, and saw a sharp decline shortly after signing with the Angels due to knee and back issues. That's the one that jumps out, but the list is long.

 

Also, I think a certain Two-Time MVP at a premium position and a leadoff hitter with 3300 hits may disagree with the "greatest the franchise has produced" line.

[HiAndTight]

But you're looking at 4 players there. Risky got hurt which no one could have predicted... Wolf hasn't even played a game for the Brewers yet, and I think could easily earn his salary... Suppan was a bad signing, but filled a need at the time and more importantly put the Brewers on the map. Hall was a bad signing, but one that A LOT of fans wanted to make at the time.

 

You don't make up for a few bad signings by making another bad signing. As the saying goes... two wrongs don't make a right.

 

I actually agree with you on this point. I also believe that Mark A was the driving force in the Jeff Suppan signing as has been speculated by many.

 

This actually leads to believe that he will again do so with Prince Fielder. Based on his previous comments about Prince, I get the feeling he's going to do what it takes to sign him.

[RockCoCougars]

Mo Vaughn was quite honestly a better player for the Red Sox, and saw a sharp decline shortly after signing with the Angels due to knee and back issues. That's the one that jumps out, but the list is long.

 

Also, I think a certain Two-Time MVP at a premium position and a leadoff hitter with 3300 hits may disagree with the "greatest the franchise has produced" line.

Vaughn is often used as a comparison to Fielder, but he was 31 years old when he went into free agency, Prince will be 27. Generally, a player's prime years are late 20's early 30's, Prince's next contract will cover that. I also disagree with the fact that Vaughn was a better player than Prince is. The batting average was higher, but give Prince some time, I think that his will go up. Plus, Prince hit 50 homers at an age where Vaughn spent most of the season in Pawtucket.

 

I didn't say Prince was the greatest, I said he will perhaps be the greatest. Don't get me wrong, I grew up as the biggest fan of Robin, but he didn't turn into a good offensive player until he turned about 25 or so. Prince is 25, and he already has 160 home runs. I 'Right now, Yount and Molitor are 1 and 1a, but if Prince and Braun keep this up for another 10 years, they will be right there.

[HiAndTight]

Mo Vaughn was quite honestly a better player for the Red Sox, and saw a sharp decline shortly after signing with the Angels due to knee and back issues. That's the one that jumps out, but the list is long.

 

Also, I think a certain Two-Time MVP at a premium position and a leadoff hitter with 3300 hits may disagree with the "greatest the franchise has produced" line.

Vaughn is often used as a comparison to Fielder, but he was 31 years old when he went into free agency, Prince will be 27. Generally, a player's prime years are late 20's early 30's, Prince's next contract will cover that. I also disagree with the fact that Vaughn was a better player than Prince is. The batting average was higher, but give Prince some time, I think that his will go up. Plus, Prince hit 50 homers at an age where Vaughn spent most of the season in Pawtucket.

 

I didn't say Prince was the greatest, I said he will perhaps be the greatest. Don't get me wrong, I grew up as the biggest fan of Robin, but he didn't turn into a good offensive player until he turned about 25 or so. Prince is 25, and he already has 160 home runs. I 'Right now, Yount and Molitor are 1 and 1a, but if Prince and Braun keep this up for another 10 years, they will be right there.

 

I still contend that free agency has been littered with a seemingly endless list of players who cashed in with big time contracts only to succomb to injuries, poor performance, of even just complacency after getting paid.

 

AS for Prince and Mo, I don't really think it's all that important if you want to say one was better than the other, but Vaughn's three years prior to signing with the Angels were; .315/.402/.591, .326/.420/.583 and .337/.402/.591. So the issue isn't so much if Prince is slightly better, or Vaughn is, and I don't believe how old they were when they came up is of particular importence for this issue either, it's simply to point out that he was at the very least on Prince's level and was considered to be a premier offensive player. He did win an MVP.

 

The point is he immediately experianced a large drop off, then was injured and his career was essentially over. It was devastating to the Angels. To the Brewers, it would be completely crippling.

 

Now simply because Vaughn did does not mean Prince will, but there is a concern of him gaining wait after a 120+ million dollar payday, and that added weight leading to declining numbers and health.

 

 

I just don't think it's a risk we can afford to take and one we especially cannot do unless we have all our birds in a row so to speak. Farm system, other contracts, etc..etc...

[monty57]

Last season, I saw some articles when Ortiz was struggling on players of that build hitting a cliff in their early 30's. I'm on board if they can sign Prince for an extra 2-4 years, but let some other team sign him to a big contract when he's closer to 30.

 

I agree with HiandTight's logic that Prince will be most valuable to the Brewers if the minor league system can produce quality players at league minimum while Prince is eating up a lot of the payroll. I think this is the case, and is also why I'd like to see a shorter term deal for Prince (no 8-10 year deals), as this would allow the Brewers to sign more "Braun type" deals to the top players of the next crop (Lawrie, Escobar, etc.) that would start to get expensive about the time Prince's deal would be coming to a close.

 

I do, however, agree with Russ in that you can't make an absolute statement without knowing everything that's on the table. If the Brewers are out of it this year, and they get offered a ridiculous deal for Prince, they'd have to at least consider it.

[Tbadder]

Braun was stupid

 

Braun was risk averse and wise. Compare Braun to Hart. If Hart doesn't have a good year this year, he may never earn big money again. How much guaranteed money did he turn away because he wanted to maximize his potential? Braun potentially gave up huge amounts of money, but he is set for life, and may still get another big payday after this contract.

 

Free agency is just too out of control for a bunch of small fries like us.

 

If Prince stays with Milwaukee, it won't be as a free agent, so this doesn't really apply. Besides, Milwaukee can support a $80M+ payroll, and it isn't realistic to think they can field an entire team of homegrown talent. Teams need FA to supplement whatever their farm doesn't provide.

 

 

I never compare Braun (a top 10 offensive player from the time he stepped onto the field) to Hart (a fair to middling player at best). Braun is upper echelon and is stupid for doing what he did.

 

And yes, a long term contract would buy out free agency dollars and years, so it would have to be considered. I know darn well Prince's people will consider it.

 

If Milwaukee is serious about competing then it must turn out a signficant amount of young, cheap talent across the board (not just sluggers who can't field) on a more consistent basis. Then, and only then, can it consider ponying up big time bucks for a superstar. And besides, as of right now--Prince and Braun (two superstars) have got them exactly one years worth of playoff games since they've been here. Hmmmmm...doesn't seem to be really working. What would change if you decided to pay him 20 mil per than 10 mil per year? Except your ability to sign even less players.