Prince's Future

[Warning Track Power]

May be stating the obvious here but the question really boils down to what gives us the better chance to win on a consistent basis:

 

Building around the Big 3 of Fielder, Braun and Gallardo. Which likely means the departure of Weeks and everyone else when they get expensive (see Hardy, J)

or

Building around Braun, Gallardo and hopefully a healthy and resigned Weeks. Assuming McGehee, Escobar and Gamel pan out to be reliable everyday players, without the burden of a $20MM Fielder, his production may be replaced by multiple players (McGehee & Gamel).

 

I was firmly behind a $20-25MM for 5-6 years for Prince until the 8/$200 was floated by Boras. Too long, as has been discussed. I want Prince more than I wanted CC, as he plays everday, but I am beginning to like our chances better with the pieces received in a Prince trade combined with the "new" core.

 

This assumes a lot...

* Weeks resigned and actually healthy

* McGehee proving 2009 was no fluke

* Gamel & Escobar living up to their lofty prospect status

 

I envision the Brewers offense like the Red Sox transformation from the Papi/ManRam days to the Pedroia/Ellsbury days in the event of a Prince deal.

 

Regardless of the path taken, if the Brewers continue to operate in a manner that feeds a high level position prospect every year or two they can remain competitive with a 3 man core eating 50% of our payroll (unless of course one the Big 3 gets hurt). The original core began arriving with Hardy and Weeks in 05 and it seems like we have been able to compliment yearly with Fielder and Hart in 06, Braun in 07 and McGehee and Escobar in 09. Can they expect to keep up this pace?

 

I think we all seem to have semi-mixed emotions about the correct path to take. Guess this is why we are all armchair GMs. Risks to be had both ways.

[endaround]

The Red Sox are probably a pretty viable trading partner after this season. Their MiLB system is pretty well-regarded, & they'd have as good a shot as anyone to re-sign Prince before free agency... or after he reaches FA

Assuming they don't land Gonzalez. Which is why Fielder probably won't bring back that much. Gonzalez is out there, Dunn is out there, Berkman is out there, Lee is out there, Pena is out there, and even Overbay. And that's before you reach Howard and Pujols after 2011.

[Tbadder]

While I agree that there are many 1st basemen to look at and that it will depress his value somewhat, Milwaukee will not be in a position to afford 8 years and 184 mil. either. How about 150 mil? I don't think so because at 150mil the years will shorten, but still be too long.

 

 

What the crew need to do is put out an all points bulletin: we will trade Fielder. We want a young stud pitcher at the AA or AAA level, and a decent position player (CF or C) who we have some control over. I think that's as good as we can do. Maybe someone will even throw in some A ball prospect(s), but I do think the compensation will not be sufficient. It will however be better than two draft picks.

[logan82]

I would be uncomfortable with anything more than 5 years or $18M per year.

[MJLiverock]

The risk with waiting to let Prince walk and collecting two draft picks is they can turn out to be JM Gold and Cutter Dykstra. I think I would rather have guys who have already produced in the minors than risk it. But of course squeezing every bit of time the team has Prince is tempting.

 

It will be a sad day when Prince is gone and I don't think it is as easy as saying having two average to slightly above average guys offset having an elite performer. We went through this when the team lost Sheets and Sabathia, a certain group said no big deal the pitching will be ok because other guys will step up and a few more average guys will replace the below average types. There is something to that elite level that just isn't a linear improvement versus the average guys. Championships aren't won with average to above average guys there are almost always some elite players sprinkled in to carry the load by themselves at times. The only bat the Brewers have in that category right now aside from Prince is Braun, I don't know if they really have anyone else on the horizon that has that high of a ceiling.

 

The only way a team like the Brewers can ever really be considered a championship contender is when they have the luxury of paying elite talent below market rates like Prince/Braun are getting paid right now. The team barely made the playoffs once with this "advantage" and had to trade for another elite type player to make it happen. To say the Brewers will be a contender without Prince is just not realistic unless a lot of their pitching becomes much better than anyone outside of the Brewers is thinking, because with Prince the team is basically a .500 type team right now.

[brewcrewkid14]

The more I think about it, and the more I realize that there's no way we're signing Fielder, the more I realize that this season (or off season) is the time to trade Fielder. Even if we are still in it in July, I would not be made to see them deal him at the deadline for major league ready talent. Gamel or McGehee (for some reason I thought he might have played there before) could fill in at first to finish out the year, and we could tread water until the 2011 FA class. The Phillies did it with Abreau in 2008, and look what they did that season, and where they are now.

 

The Red Sox are the perfect fit for him. They got some young players that would look really good in Milwaukee too.

[Mr QL]

Why would Boston give up the farm when they could just sign Prince in free agency if they wanted him? They're already a world series caliber team. They can afford to wait. Unfortunately, I really don't think we'll get much value for Prince if that's the route we decide to take.

[endaround]

Boston needs a DH and not a 1B making them a bad match. Why trade for Prince or pay him $23m when you can get Dunn or Berkman on a 2 year deal for less than half the yearly amount?

[TheCrew07]

Why the rush? Worse happens is Fielder spends another season with the Brewers provides another 5 wins of value and then brings 2 draft picks.

Frederickson and Dykstra are waving hello...

 

If proven prospects are an unknown commodity then what are draft picks? You can't even adequately define their value... what if we end up with a team's second round pick again like the

Sabathia deal?

 

If I have a choice between top prospects and draft picks, the choice is prospects every single time. If the pitching doesn't improve, Prince's 5 wins don't mean anything, especially in a walk year.

[brewtank34]

I just don't trust Melvin to get the quality pitchers in return for Prince. I'm ok with trading Prince, and I understand that we're most likely not going to get equal talent for talent for Prince...but what has Melvin showed that we can trust him in building a pitching rotation? Capuano and Bush are the only decent pitchers (other than CC) that he's gotten in a trade.

[Mr QL]

Why the rush? Worse happens is Fielder spends another season with the Brewers provides another 5 wins of value and then brings 2 draft picks.

Frederickson and Dykstra are waving hello...

 

If proven prospects are an unknown commodity then what are draft picks? You can't even adequately define their value... what if we end up with a team's second round pick again like the

Sabathia deal?

 

If I have a choice between top prospects and draft picks, the choice is prospects every single time. If the pitching doesn't improve, Prince's 5 wins don't mean anything, especially in a walk year.

Proven prospects? Like who?

 

One, I don't think there is such a thing as a "proven" prospect especially pitchers. Two, I have 0 confidence we'd get a get a "stud" pitcher for Prince. Teams generally don't want to give those up especially when they won't be able to sign the guy they're trading for or they could just wait a year and sign in free agency.

 

I'd stretch this out with Prince and do everything possible to resign him. I don't see the prospects we'd get for Prince much better than the draft picks.

[logan82]

We went through this when the team lost Sheets and Sabathia, a certain group said no big deal the pitching will be ok because other guys will step up and a few more average guys will replace the below average types.

 

We would have been ok last year if Parra and Bush had not completely fallen apart and at least one replacement pitcher been good.(ok Narveson was but they didn't even go to him till September) Parra and Bush pitching to their career numbers would have been about 4 wins.

[TheCrew07]

Proven prospects? Like who?

Seriously? Baseball America would be a fantastic resource.

 

One, I don't think there is such a thing as a "proven" prospect

especially pitchers. Two, I have 0 confidence we'd get a get a "stud"

pitcher for Prince. Teams generally don't want to give those up

especially when they won't be able to sign the guy they're trading for

or they could just wait a year and sign in free agency.

I get that many people around here would rather Melvin do whatever he can to acquire MLB pieces dumping prospects... that's fine. However, to suggest that any organization's top prospects aren't better value than a draft pick is an unsupportable opinion. I can make any random claim I want then and not back it up with anything. There's so much that goes into player evaluation that is misrepresented or misinterpreted by posters on the MLB forum here that it's not even worth getting into. If you're interested in truly educating yourself in prospect evaluation Baseball America, John Sickels Minor League Ball, and our very own colbyjack's 5 Tool Talk are excellent resources to get one started. I get it, believe me, I get that prospects haven't proven anything, etc... those arguments haven't changed since I started reading this site in 2003. Until you support your opinion with more than just a throw away sentence, I find it difficult to take your argument seriously.

 

Unfortunately it seems to me that people latch on to an opinion without considering the entire picture.... someone posts that there's no way the Brewers can get equal value for Fielder so we shouldn't trade him when that's not really even a legit argument from the start. However people will agree because they don't want to lose an impact bat like Fielder's from lineup, but that entire argument is superficial in nature. The argument is actually can you match or excede Fielder's WAR plus the value of 2 unknown draft picks by trading Fielder for prospects. We've already been down this road in the Hardy discussions. this is nothing new. If you're out of the playoffs with or without Fielder and he's going to walk away in 1 year, then what is the best possible return you can get for the player?

 

I understand that many around here want to resign Fielder, that's fine. The question being asked here is that if Fielder will not resign, or if he's willing to sign for a reasonable amount. If he's not willing to sign and the team isn't playoff bound with or without Fielder, then what is the possible return? Is it draft picks or is prospects that have already proven already successful in the minor leagues. Which route has the most the value long term for the Brewers? Shouldn't we actually be considering all possible outcomes instead of hoping for the best possible outcome? As far as who... well lets just take Baltimore whom I've brought up before as an example; how about one of Matusz, Britton. or Arrieta, with another projectable A ball arm in Hobgood, and a bat like Bell or Snyder? There's plenty of scouting information available on all of those players, and it took me all of 20 minutes to do some research on the team last season, I'm certainly not spending all day looking at players like Melvin and his staff. I'd be willing to take one of the first 3 pitchers I mentioned and just Bell, moving him over to 1B other than 2 draft picks along with another losing season.

 

The whole concept of value hinges almost entirely on if the Brewers are legit contenders for a playoff spot with Fielder. If the answer is no then what is the point in keeping Prince around? I don't see how it's reasonable to assume that Brewers will be able to resign him, or even make long term plans for the future based on the hope that he might sign. They should know by now where Prince stands on an extension and how realistic the chance is that they can resign him.

 

I'd stretch this out with Prince and do everything possible to

resign him. I don't see the prospects we'd get for Prince much better

than the draft picks.

It's extremely insulting to make an argument based on no research and just a gut feeling about a current player on the roster. The Brewers haven't exactly hit home runs with all of the extra draft picks they've gotten so far, in fact only a couple of the extra picks are performing well at this point in time and none of them above A ball. I brought up Dykstra because he may never even see AA for the Brewers and he was a comp pick, the vast majority of the prospects I listed above from Baltimore have had success at AA or higher. I'll take a player who's passed the first litmus test at AA over a draft pick that may never even make it that far every single time. Yea the pick could be a hall of fame player, but if I'm going to lose an elite hitter of Prince's caliber, I'm going to want measurable or tangible value back in return which is only a step away from MLB.

 

Also, Fielder was a top 10 pick in the draft and the top 15 picks are protected so there's no way we can even get equal value out of the first draft pick. In fact the chances of picking up a player who would ultimately have close to equal WAR as Fielder is extremely remote, even were picking in the exact same spot. Finally, there's no guarantee that we'd even have a pick before the supplemental round after letting a #7 overall pick walk. How can you possibly claim that 2 draft picks would have equal value to 2 players that could put up positive WAR in MLB starting tomorrow? Have people learned nothing from the Hardy/Escobar fiasco?

[logan82]

Have people learned nothing from the Hardy/Escobar fiasco?

 

Sure have. We tend to overvalue our own players.

[trwi7]

Sure have. We tend to overvalue our own players.

 

No. It's more like if a player isn't part of your core going forward, you should trade him while he still has value. And before anyone says if Hardy wouldn't have been bad last season, we could've gotten value, I disagree.

 

If he didn't suck last season, he wouldn't have gone to the minors and would've had only one year before free agency.

[The Truth]

I think if they cannot re-sign Prince and if the Brewers don't look like legit contenders in '10 or '11, the Crew must first fire Melvin and bring in another GM before making the Prince trade. Melvin has an established history now of selling low on players (Hall and Hardy) misjudging important talent evaluations (Hart vs Nelson Cruz, to a lesser degree Jorge De La Rosa) and has been well below average in aquiring pitching via trades... I want someone else pulling the trigger on a Prince trade because what we get back in that trade could well shape the Brewers entire chance in 2012 and beyond

 

With Braun and Gallardo locked in, Lawrie on the way, Gomez and Escobar and McGehee here with more experiemce under their belts, pitching help coming via the minors, 2012 and 2013 could be very strong years with the added talent a Prince trade could bring. But it has to be the right talent. It has to be much more significant than the Sexson trade brought (as an example).

 

Otherwise just bite the bullet and pay Prince and try to roll with it that way

[Invader3K]

I agree with Crew07's assessment that prospects (especially ones in at least AA) are a better gamble than unknown compensatory draft picks. Knowing our luck, some team like the Red Sox would sign Fielder, then also sign another FA ranked higher than Prince (just like what happened when the Yankees signed Sabathia and Teixeira).

 

I really hope that if the team isn't in realistic contention by July '10 (not just hanging around .500 and flying on a prayer like last year), they deal Prince and get the most value for him possible. If they are contending for real, fine, keep him. But the team has to be realistic and make the best move for the future of the franchise, not just the move that will sell a couple hundred thousand extra tickets this season.

[FVBrewerFan]

If the Brewers are not in contention, they can even sweeten the deal by including any combination of Davis, Hoffman, Counsell, Hart, Gomez. Mega-deals like that are more likely to happen during the off-season, but it could work nicely in July/Aug if the right team needs a couple of these parts in addition to Fielder. Hart and Gomez are reaches, granted. But there certainly could be a contender that would love a LH SP in the #4 or #5 spot down the stretch run. Or a utility guy like Counsell who can also PH, and hs "been there before." If Hoffman gets squared away, he would have big time value for a contender who has an injured/ineffective closer.

 

Something like Fielder/Davis for Ellsbury and two top shelf pitching prospects would be intriguing.

[joepepsi]

I agree with Crew07's assessment that prospects (especially ones in at least AA) are a better gamble than unknown compensatory draft picks.

Me too. I think they can get a 30 homer prospect, a hard throwing rotation prospect, and a bullpen or role position player.

[MJLiverock]

Once again TheCrew07 has put my thoughts into a much better more concrete post. I say thanks for taking the time to write out the multiple paragraphs. I agree, prospects are not guarantee but they have at least passed one hurdle even if it is just competing versus low minor league talent and probably played more games in a season than ever before to help judge how their body holds up. No talent is really can't miss but the closest ones are going to be taken in the top 10 which won't be available draft picks as comp. I know this is just a repeat of TheCrew07's post but it bears noting that those top picks won't be available as comps. It will be middle to late first round and sandwhich picks.

[zelouswheeler4prez]

The giants are a contender that are most likely looking for some protection for sandoval as well as a big bat to give them more run production for their great starters. They also have a piece like bumgarner that would look great in our rotation later this year or to start the next. The Giants seem like a logical place to ship prince to at the deadline.

[RyDogg66]

Sandoval should probably already be playing first base. What are the Giants going to do with Prince and Pandavol in two years?

[RockCoCougars]

I don't get the fascination with Jacoby Elllsbury. Trading Prince with Ellsbury as the main part coming back would be akin to the Gorman Thomas/Rick Manning trade in '83 (albeit with both Prince and Ellsbury both being much better than Thomas and Manning). I want no part of trading elite power for a slick fielding singles hitter. If Prince must be traded, it had better be for multiple pitchers who are ready to pitch in the majors now, not single A guys,, plus they better be able to break 92-93 on the radar guns, and not be junkballers- as Melvin seems to favor.

[logan82]

It's more like if a player isn't part of your core going forward, you should trade him while he still has value.

You assume we could have traded Hardy for more the previous offseason. We do not know that to be true. From the sound of it, we may have only been offered a relief pitcher for Hardy. There is no guarantee we could have traded for a player better than Gomez.

[Invader3K]

RockCoCougars]I don't get the fascination with Jacoby Elllsbury.

Yeah. Plus the fact that we already have a glut of outfielders to begin with that can handle CF (Gomez, Gerut, Cain, etc). Ellsbury is a very good player, but I don't see why we would want or need him at this juncture. Like you said, we have to get quality starting pitching back for Prince, or the idea may as well be a non-starter.