Prince's Future

[Invader3K]

Its been fun watching Prince, and he truly is a star. But there is no way I want the Brewers to over extend on a first baseman. Let another team step in front of this bullet.

Right. It's one thing to give him a big contract that is relatively fair. It's another thing to give him a Joe Mauer sized deal that would inevitably hamper the team. I just hope the majority of fans can keep some perspective when and if Fielder gets traded.

[RobDeer 45]

Wow, when I read that I said to myself, "it's been good knowing you." There is no way we can give him that much money. I hate to say it but we need to trade him next year or if the price is right and we are out of the race maybe this trade deadline.

 

I think us throwing some money at Weeks should now be the next move. I also agree, get Gamel working at 1B.

[RyDogg66]

I think if you are looking at trading Prince Fielder you need to look at the Texas to Atlanta deal for Teixeira and the Cliff Lee deal from Cleveland to Philly. Those were two deals made without extensions being talked about at all. In fact, if we are "out" of it come the All Star break, I start calling around to the San Francisco's and Boston's. The problem is, that much like his FA value may be depressed with Gonzalez, Howard and Pujols on the FA Market, if Gonzalez is on he trade block teams could play that against us.

[sheethead]

There is no way we can give him that much money.

 

Not only can the Brewers not pay him that type of money, but outside the budget-less Yankees, I don't see how any team can pay him that much money without significantly damaging the structure of their franchise.

 

I just hope the majority of fans can keep some perspective when and

if Fielder gets traded.

 

The problem that arises is there are a LOT of fans that don't understand

the financial structure of baseball, or even how player rights and

contracts work. It will be a tough sell to the casual fans, but Melvin

needs to do it somehow.

[monty57]

The problem is, that much like his FA value may be depressed with Gonzalez, Howard and Pujols on the FA Market, if Gonzalez is on he trade block teams could play that against us.

 

That's a good point, RyDogg, and I think that may lead to us getting a better deal mid-season this year than we could get next offseason. When teams are in a bit of a panic to make a playoff push, they may be more likely to give us the house than they would be when they can take their time and explore all their options in the offseason. Of course, I hope we're in the playof hunt this season, but if we're not, I'd definitely look at trading him this season.

[owbc]

Letting Fielder go can not be sold to some casual fans, and even some more dedicated fans. It is hard to blame them for being upset about a financial system where only a few elite teams are allowed to sign the top elite players in free agency. I suspect that the Brewers will lose casual fans who will simply stop following the team after Prince leaves.

 

I do not blame these people for being upset, and sometimes I question my passion for the Brewers when the Fielder contract comes up. The Brewers are the franchise that took the risk drafting him and spent considerable time, money, and resources developing Prince from a prospect into a superstar. All that work got us one playoff appearance that lasted less than a week. Meanwhile, another team can now step in and grab him for the prime of his career, only because they have a larger market--and most likely fans who are not even as loyal as Brewers fans. In return, the Brewers simply open up additional resources which will be used to start developing more players who will eventually be traded to larger teams. If we happen to make the playoffs again, we will likely run into a team full of free agents that will always make us the underdogs.

 

The biggest problem with the financial system is that we are the underdogs and will always be the underdogs. I do not see how Bud Selig and the pundits can deny this. The Brewers will always face an uphill climb because they have less money than the top teams. This means that our management can not make mistakes like the other teams can, they can not afford injuries, and it takes a number of things to go right to overcome the extreme financial disparity between us and the top clubs. I wish Mark would respond to the comments by the Yankees, since they should be an insult to him--basically saying that he should operate his club at an annual loss, while the superior Yankees are allowed to be profitable.

 

I can not think of a scenario that makes us a better club without Prince Fielder. Even more, we will be stuck rebuilding while Ryan Braun's time with the club also ticks away. There will not be 3 million fans in the stands every year, the crowds eventually will go back down to a level appropriate for our market size if we can not compete for the playoffs.

 

I am not saying that signing Fielder is the best move for the franchise or that we should try to go ahead with it. I am just saying that Doug and Mark A. really have no choice.

[FVBrewerFan]

The problem is, that much like his FA value may be depressed with Gonzalez, Howard and Pujols on the FA Market, if Gonzalez is on he trade block teams could play that against us.

I see this all the time, and I don't think it has a very big effect on the market. Howard and Pujols will stay where they are, and Gonzalez will end up with the Dodgers or Angels. That still leaves the Cubs, Mets, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, and others who could potentially be in the market for Prince. Even a surprise team like the Nationals could make a run, or any team looking for a face to put on the organization for PR purposes.

 

If the Brewers aren't in the playoff chase, they should try to move him. But more likely, they can get a better deal done in the off-season. It will be a sad day, but if the right deal is made then I'll view it as the glass is half full. Not only should they get some great talent back, but the salaries of Prince, Suppan, Hoffman, Davis are gone (plus the dead money from this year.) That should allow the Brewers to go out and get a real CF or F, or a legit #3 type starting pitcher. Also gives them a ton of talent to try to swing a deal for a top of the rotation type of SP.

 

 

[monty57]

Letting Fielder go can not be sold to some casual fans, and even some more dedicated fans. It is hard to blame them for being upset about a financial system where only a few elite teams are allowed to sign the top elite players in free agency. I suspect that the Brewers will lose casual fans who will simply stop following the team after Prince leaves.

 

We do play in an unfair system, and it does suck that we do. That said, we can still be competitive with a mid-tier payroll, currently in the $80-90MM range. My biggest worries with Prince are that we either (A) try to prove to the world that we're big shots, and pay him whatever he asks for, crippling the team's flexibility or (B) we let him walk and get a supplemental pick for him.

 

I'd love to see him signed to a contract that would still allow us to build a team around him. If we can't sign him to that contract, trade him mid-year this year or next offseason. We will get better return than we'd get by letting him walk, and for the franchise as a whole, one year of Prince is probably not worth 18 years of good prospects (3 prospects / 6 years each) or whatever we'd get in the trade.

 

This is exactly why I've long been a proponant of offering long term extensions to young (arby eligible) superstars. At least you get an extra couple of years out of them before they eventually head for greener pastures. If we can't sign Prince, hopefully we'll extend Weeks and Escobar, get some talent from the Prince trade that we could have for a long time, and we could definitely be a good (playoff hopeful) team for a long, long time.

[Baldkin]

obsessedwithbrewcrew wrote:

I can not think of a scenario that makes us a better club without Prince Fielder.

The Rangers became a better team without Alex Rodriguez.

I don't think you could find a single Cubs fan who wouldn't say they'd be better without Soriano.

The Brewers are HUGELY better not having to pay Carlos Lee 18.5M 2010-2012 like the Astros do -- despite the uproar from the fans when he was traded and how much they 'needed Carlos'.

Prince is an elite hitter, but (for example) Mat Gamel + $20M spent elsewhere can definitely make up for it.

[FVBrewerFan]

Twins couldn't live without Santana...

[sheethead]

The Brewers can definitely compete and be just as good without Fielder. The Mariners won 116 games the year after A-Rod exited. Prince and Boras have turned him into a star, and stars are way overpaid for the value they bring onto the field in terms of wins and losses. This is because stars bring home the bacon with the casual fans, and agents know this. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Hopefully the pieces fall into place for Melvin the way they did for Shapiro and the Indians in 2008.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think in the short-term we will likely look back and regret it if we don't re-sign Prince. However, in the long-term we will realize that it was probably a good idea, because it would likely cripple us in the future when our other players are commanding bigger bucks. Although, I think we could get by if a couple of our pitching prospects pan out, but we can't really count on that. If you look at it, it's gonna be about 5 years till Escobar gets paid, and a few years till Gomez and McGehee would get anything significant. We have Braun on a reasonable salary, and can probably get Weeks on a reasonable salary as well. What it really comes down to is paying pitchers beyond Gallardo. If prospects don't develop in that department, and we re-sign Prince, then we're pretty much screwed and can't sign free agent pitchers.

[logan82]

Gomez is 31 days short of having 3 years in and being eligible for arbitration. Gamel has 122 days of service time in at the start of the year so he could very easily have a year in by the end of this year(172 days is one year of service time). Escobar will start getting paid after the 2012 season, the same as Gamel if Gamel gets 59 days of service time this year. Parra is eligible after this year. They won't be to expensive since it is still arbitration but we are not far removed from salaries going up.

[FVBrewerFan]

Sure, but Suppan, Hoffman, Prince, Davis, etc. will be coming off. Plus Wolf (in a few years), Zaun, probably Hart, etc. I haven't looked at how the total salary could look like in each of the next 4 years or so, but I would think losing these big salaries will more than make up for extending Weeks, Gamel, etc. The net result should be a lower salary than they have today.

 

Key to winning a World Series is they just have to have a couple young, stud starting pitchers during a 2-3 year window (at least.) We have seen having Braun/Fielder isn't enough. You can win it all without an exceptional 1/2 punch at the top of the rotation, but it doesn't happen often. And I'm still not convinced Gallardo can be one of the two. That's why signing Fielder to a meg-deal just doesn't make sense. It puts the Brewers where they already are. An exciting team to watch, but no real threat to win it all. That $20-25MM needs to go to starting pitching. I like Narveson or even Parra/Bush in the #4, #5 spots and Gallardo in the #3 spot (MAYBE #2) But the Brewers still need that Sabathia type ace. You look at 2008 with Sabathia/Sheets/Gallardo. If they could have that rotation (healthy, of course) for 2 or 3 years, they would have beena legit contender. Without a rotation like that, Miller Park is just a fun place to watch MLB baseball.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd do 5 years $125 million, but that's as high as I would go. That's basically Fielder's salary now plus Suppan's and part of Hall's for this season. I tend to overvalue Fielder more than most here for two reasons. First, I don't think that the Brewers would get nearly the haul in a trade as many think they would unless you trade him this season at the deadline, which you hopefully can't do because the team is in contention. I think the value dips big time after the deadline this year. Secondly, I think the Brewers should do everything they can to sign Fielder because let's face it, they will not attract talent of his stature to come to Milwaukee. The Brewers will have to overpay free agent pitchers to come here as well (see Suppan, Wolf)- therefore I think there is a flaw in the logic that you can just take what you would have given to Prince, and use it to overhaul the pitching staff. Where else are they going to get the bang for the buck?

 

That said, if Prince and Boras are truly looking for $200 million, you have to let him walk.

[davego]

I'd think that if Prince is going to take a 5-6 year deal, it's going to cost closer to $25 mill per then $20 mill over 10 years.

[logan82]

Until Fielder signs a deal or is traded/leaves, all we are going to hear is trade rumor after trade rumor.

[FVBrewerFan]

Right. And it's impossible to prove if that has any effect on his performance, but it could. In fact, that brings up another angle. You know, it is possible he doesn't have a monster season. What does it do to his value if he hits .271 with 28 HRs?

[owbc]

Yes, I agree that under the current economic system, the Brewers will be better off without Prince due to the high price of his new contract.

 

However, if the economic system was fair, the Brewers would be far better off with Prince than without. As it is now, the best we can hope for is to get some decent compensation that might help us in the future.

 

But what are we exactly building for? The Twins still make the playoffs without Santana, but they are demolished annually by teams in the playoffs that sign high-priced free agents.

[sargennm]

Sigh. Hopefully the Brewers can come close to what the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira in his first trade. I doubt they would get an entire haul that awesome because of Prince's long term defensive liabilities.

[Tbadder]

Sports Illustrated hints that it will take 8 years and 200 million to sign Prince. God I hope it's true. That'll really take the pressure off because only an idiot would believe Milwaukee could or should sign one meatbag for that much. For a day: I Love you Scott Boras!

[derflotr]

I've tossed this around in my mind for a long time, but I think today I've come to my own conclusion (and I'm going to post this as if my opinion is really important).

The Brewers absolutely 100% need to trade Prince Fielder this July. I have an extremely hard time believing that Scott Boras will make one of his biggest clients an exception to his rule: The only chance the Brewers have of re-signing Fielder will be in free agency. That does not bode well for the Brewers. Even if Prince does re-sign, it will be massive and the team will have limited flexibility long-term. Yes, it will be a relief to have some of the big Suppan/Hall contracts off the books, but there are several other important players on the team due pay raises. If the impact arms (Rivas, Arnett, perhaps Rogers or Jeffress) we expect to blossom into top-of-the-rotation MLB starters don't pan out as quickly as we thought, the Brewers will remain stuck plugging holes in the back end of the rotation, relying on Gallardo and Wolf to be 1 and 2 - not altogether enticing.

I think we've seen that the Brewers' potential is capped with the caliber of pitching they have, despite Fielder performing at the level he's at right now. This really has nothing to do with Prince himself, which is what hurts the most about it; he's exactly the kind of special player that a team can build around. It's just not responsible for a small-market team like the Brewers to make a long-term investment at this price on ANY player, much less Prince - who will always have questions concerning his weight and durability long-term. As tired as that argument is, it's something that has to be considered. It's amazing how many players nowadays on the tail end of massive contracts are financially killing their teams, and the fans turn on them because of it. It just seems as if every big long-term contract ends ugly. Not to mention that trading Fielder rather than simply losing him is preferable because the Brewers control his destination, at least in the short term. I don't want to hear about the Cubs and Yankees bidding for his service, if at all possible.

And it's not like the Brewers will be getting A-ballers in return. They can get major league ready (or at least very near major league ready) arms and bats for someone as coveted as Fielder. It's not really a rebuilding move, in my mind - the Brewers can still have a potent offense built around Braun, Weeks, McGehee, Gamel, and Escobar, and whoever comes over in the trade. Obviously not as potent - Fielder isn't replaceable - but improved pitching in both quantity and quality will go a long way at evening it out. Depending on the return, of course, I think the Brewers could absolutely content in 2011 and years beyond.

Now if they're 20 games over .500 at the deadline, leave it alone. But I don't think that's being realistic. It'll be truly painful to have to trade away one of the organization's brightest and most successful home-grown stars, especially considering the relationship Fielder has created with the fans. But I think it has to be done.

[Bombers]

So if Prince is worth 8 years for $200 then what is Pujols worth? 8 years $240? ($30 mil a year) because however you compare it, Pujols is better. And he has a World Series ring. I like Prince but it would be extremelly risky to try and afford $25 million per year for just one player.

In 3 years Braun, Gallardo and Prince would look like this:

Year	Gallardo	Braun	Prince	Total	$85 Mil	$90 Mil
					(percentage of payroll)
2013	7.75	8.50	25	41.25	48.5%	45.8%
2014	11.25	10	25	46.25	54.4%	51.4%
2015	13	12	25	50	58.8%	55.6%

Even with a $90 million payroll, in 2015 we would have 57% of our salary eaten up by 3 players. That would leave $45 million to cover the other 22 spots. It's doable, but the risk is extremelly high. For reference, this year the Cardinals have 50% of their team salaray taken up by Pujols, Carpenter, and Holliday.

[Mr QL]

I have a hard time believing we'd get much value for Prince if we did decide to trade him honestly. Who's going to trade the farm for a guy that they have no chance in resigning or could just wait to sign later? I'd almost rather take my chances in free agency with the crowded market for first basemen(the Yankees already one and maybe out of the market as well) than a bunch of junk prospects like we'd probably get. If we're serious about showing him the money(like 5 years 125 mil like someone else said or whatever) I think we can compete in the open market. He ain't getting 180 or 200 mil no matter what Boras say he's looking for.

 

Big whoop if we don't have the flexibility to sign awesome free agent pitchers like Doug Davis or Randy Wolf because of it.

[monty57]

I agree with a lot of what's said. If Boras is truly looking at 8 years / $200MM, the fans of Milwaukee will turn on Prince and Boras pretty quickly, making it far more palatable for Melvin to trade him either this season or next offseason. As long as we're able to get some form of young pitching back for him, we should be in pretty good shape.

 

If we don't have to pay Suppan ($12.5MM), Hall ($7MM), Davis ($4.25MM), Counsell ($2.1MM), Riske ($4.5MM), Hoffman ($7.5MM), Fielder ($10.5MM), Bush ($4.215MM), Zaun ($1.9MM), and possibly even Hart ($4.8MM) next season, that's $59.265MM off the books from this year's salary. Sure there'll be some arby increases, but many of these players will be replaced by players from the minor leagues, and league minimum players that would likely come over in the Fielder trade.

 

Most of the positions (C, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF?, Yo, Wolf, Narveson, Parra, and most of the bullpen) will be covered, and with the money we'll have available, I don't think it should be too tough to coax some free agent talent to fill in where our minor leaguers can't. If we could trade Prince for a stud young pitcher, we'd have enough money to sign or trade for a good expensive starter (like a Javier Vazquez trade this past offseason) and have a dominating rotation next year to go with what should still be a good offense.

 

I like Prince. He's a great player. However, if Melvin plays his cards right, we could have a better team next year than we have right now.