Prince's Future

[logan82]

davemakovec wrote:

Additionally, guys like Prince and Braun pack the seats and sell a lot of jerseys. There's financial advantage to having him.

Most people would probably just buy a different player's jersey. The only jersey sales that matter are the ones sold at the stadium(and team store in Milwaukee). All other jersey sales are split amongst the clubs.

 

I really question how many tickets Braun and Fielder actually sell. The Brewers don't sell anywhere near the tickets they do now if the team is back to a sub .500 team. If we keep winning and Fielder leaves, I think we may take a small hit in tickets. Weekend games probably still sell out or close to it as the demand for tickets far outstrips supply. People didn't start to show up to Brewers games until we started to win. The Brewers have to decide whether they have a better chance to win with Fielder or the players and the money they have by not signing or trading Fielder.

[JohnBriggs12]

there's a distinction to be made between just 3 20 year old and a couple of the games elite prospects, the latter of which Fielder would command.

 

Depends on how you define "elite". Every year there's what, 50 names at least in the minors of guys somebody is going to consider elite. At most, 5 of those will have HOF careers (like Fielder has the makings of already), and many more won't have much impact at all. The rest will end up being average to good big leaguers. Now if you assume that one of the 20 or so teams that has more than one of those 50 is going to give up 2 of those guys and also has the financial ability to handle a $175 million contract, that's a pretty big assumption. In reality you'd have to expand the definition of "elite" to more like 150 minor leaguers to assume you're getting 2 "elite" guys for Fielder. To me that's too watered down to interest me.

 

I'd rather take the shot at signing him, and if he doesn't, get 2 more of his prime years, then take the salary relief and the draft picks.

[thebruce44]

I really question how many tickets Braun and Fielder actually sell. The Brewers don't sell anywhere near the tickets they do now if the team is back to a sub .500 team.

Agreed. Winning and playoff chases sell tickets, not individual stars. Besides, JJ was probably as popular or more popular than Prince last year outside of the hardcore fans. I am sure those girls people will still show up this season.

[thebruce44]

there's a distinction to be made between just 3 20 year old and a couple of the games elite prospects, the latter of which Fielder would command.

 

Depends on how you define "elite". Every year there's what, 50 names at least in the minors of guys somebody is going to consider elite. At most, 5 of those will have HOF careers (like Fielder has the makings of already), and many more won't have much impact at all. The rest will end up being average to good big leaguers. Now if you assume that one of the 20 or so teams that has more than one of those 50 is going to give up 2 of those guys and also has the financial ability to handle a $175 million contract, that's a pretty big assumption. In reality you'd have to expand the definition of "elite" to more like 150 minor leaguers to assume you're getting 2 "elite" guys for Fielder. To me that's too watered down to interest me.

 

I'd rather take the shot at signing him, and if he doesn't, get 2 more of his prime years, then take the salary relief and the draft picks.

Excellent point. I think some people forget how often prospects flame out, especially pitchers. At the very least for even elite pitchers, it takes a couple of years before they can be counted on to help you in the playoffs.

 

Here is an interesting link talking about prospects busting:

 

Even more amazing is that you get an middle of the rotation pitcher or better out of a top 10 prospect only 8% of the time. I wont pretend to understand the study completely, but its an interesting read none the less, especially when considering trading our best player for pitching.

[endaround]

If people want a decent idea what Fielder would bring, I think say Ike Davis and Jenrry Mejia from teh Mets woudl be my upper guess. 2 prospects in the 50-70 range. Davis looks to be a decent 1B prospect while Mejia is a 20 year old AA arm with upside.

[JJHardy7]

I really think some people are underestimating Prince's value to the Brewers. The Brewers struggle for awhile (even in the early 2000s) was to have a player that on a national level that folks cared about. Comparing Hardy and Fielder isn't fair at all...Hardy might have been some Milwaukee heart throb or whatever, but on a national scale and baseball scale Fielder is much, much more important than some local heart throb.

 

I think the Brewers should extend Fielder. The thing that is maybe getting missed is that the Brewers can't just buy pitching...even with Fielder's current salary they can't do that. The biggest issue IMO is that they need to be able to have an awesome farm system. The Brewers will never be 'buying' pitching in order to succeed. It just won't work that way IMO...

[Invader3K]

Slightly encouraging quote from Jerry Crasnick's article on ESPN.com:

 

"You'd love to stay, but it's a business, and it has to play out how it has to play out," Fielder said. "Hopefully I can be here for 30 years, but it's not something I'm going to stress out about."

[BrewCrewForever]

The Crasnick article was great. Scary how close the numbers are between Braun/Fielder and Matthews/Aaron.

[TheCrew07]

Say want you want, the offer to CC wasn't serious competitive offer, in the end it wasn't even close... it doesn't matter if we are bidding against the Yankees, BoSox, Dodgers... whomever... they will always be able to go 3 or more years longer than the Brewers and tack on an extra couple mil per year to boot. It's just the reality of the situation....

 

No kidding they were on the hook if he signed, isn't that the case with any contract offer in any business segment around the world? It would have been the steal of the century to get a pitcher of CC's caliber locked in on 5 year deal. From the perspective of the payroll, the contract was as far as the team could go in dollars and years, and in that respect it was a serious offer, but it was hardly competitive and I seriously doubt anyone in the organization truly expected CC to sign it.

 

I believe they expected CC sign to that offer like I believe the organization demoted Hardy solely for performance reasons.

 

It was a savvy PR move, but that was about it.

 

As far as Fielder is concerned, signing him means the organization has to completely change the way it spends money, which means either Melvin makes a 180 or they find a different GM. They cannot have Fielder signed to big money, Braun signed to moderate money, a significant portion of the payroll wasted on the bullpen, and they certainly won't be able to afford to be paying our worst starting pitchers the most money. I've seen nothing from Melvin to suggest he'd even consider changing the way he spends money, in fact I see him continuing to do what he's always done. This situation isn't as black and white as people make it out to be and while I would welcome a Fielder contract if I thought it would be bring about the changes in player management I've been harping on the last 2 years, but I just don't see that best case scenario panning out. I think the end result would be a financially crippling situation because Melvin doesn't lock up key talent early and spends money way too inefficiently. 33% of the payroll tied into 2 players requires and entirely different strategy in team building and payroll management than what this team has done over the last 4 seasons. Melvin's strategy is great for turning an organization around, but it doesn't really work over the long term, nor does the MLB team reach that elite level of a perennial contender, there's simply not enough talent for the money being spent.

 

Again I wouldn't mind Fielder locked in to a reasonable market deal, but I don't believe the situation is as simple as paying him for his talent either.

[paul253]

Additionally, guys like Prince and Braun pack the seats and sell a lot of jerseys. There's financial advantage to having him.

 

I think winning sells more tickets though. I would love to resign him, but I don't want to lose any financial flexibility in the process. We still have no real pitching prospects even close (I think Jones and Butler are the only guys you could even think about competing for the rotation in 2011, and they seem to be #4 or #5 starters at best) and last season showed that with no pitching it doesn't really matter it Fielder is here or not. If our prospects don't pan out, and you're paying Fielder $19 million a year, you're not going to be able to sign a real high level free agent pitcher and will continue to end up with the Jeff Suppan/Braden Looper/Doug Davis type signings. I'd be willing to give Fielder more years (6-7) if he signs for a little less money ($16-$18 million). I just don't trust him and his agent will do so.

 

It's really funny if you think about it. 99.999999% of Americans would wet themselves if they were offered a contract that pays you $102 million to play baseball in Milwaukee for 6 years. Yet pro athletes.....nope....I want more. Sheesh.

[logan82]

I think having payroll flexibility is very important. I really wouldn't want to bank on developing pitching given the rate pitchers burn out as prospects. I would much rather try to develop position players and hope we hit on some pitching then fill out our rotation with a couple free agents.

[monty57]

It's really funny if you think about it. 99.999999% of Americans would wet themselves if they were offered a contract that pays you $102 million to play baseball in Milwaukee for 6 years. Yet pro athletes.....nope....I want more. Sheesh.

 

And 99.99999% of people making $10 / hour would wet themselves if offered a job that paid $20 / hour. It's supply and demand. Very few people can play major league level baseball and millions of people will pay to watch it.

 

I really question how many tickets Braun and Fielder actually sell. The Brewers don't sell anywhere near the tickets they do now if the team is back to a sub .500 team. If we keep winning and Fielder leaves, I think we may take a small hit in tickets. Weekend games probably still sell out or close to it as the demand for tickets far outstrips supply. People didn't start to show up to Brewers games until we started to win. The Brewers have to decide whether they have a better chance to win with Fielder or the players and the money they have by not signing or trading Fielder.

 

For some reason, this quote made me question why the Brewers don't promote their prospects more these days. I'd guess that a very small % of the fans could tell you who Lawrie or Arnett are. Granted we had a terrible MLB team when Prince, Rickie, etc were in the minors, but they were hyped and people showed up to see them when they were called up.

 

Excellent point. I think some people forget how often prospects flame out, especially pitchers. At the very least for even elite pitchers, it takes a couple of years before they can be counted on to help you in the playoffs.

 

Which is why I'd prefer trading him for some young players with MLB experience instead of a AA "top prospect." Yo Gallardo has a much better chance of having a good career than a recent first rounder who's now in high-A. The hard part is finding a team with a surplus of MLB-ready pitching that is looking to trade for Prince.

[endaround]

No team is going to trade a Gallardo type for a single season of Fielder at $15m. And that's before you start looking at 1B alternatives available in 2011.

[Baldkin]

Here's a solid article on the trade value of Adrian Gonzalez.

 

He's pretty similar to Prince, only over the next two years, Prince is getting paid about $15M more. He doesn't have *that* much surplus value compared to his contract, so you can't expect to get that big of a haul for him.

[logan82]

I have not read it yet but ran across this article on "What Puts Fans In the Seats?"

[paul253]

And 99.99999% of people making $10 / hour would wet themselves if

offered a job that paid $20 / hour. It's supply and demand. Very few

people can play major league level baseball and millions of people will

pay to watch it.

 

Your comparing apples and oranges here. You're talking about someone who could be set for life 100 times over (literally) vs someone who could switch from buying Magic Stars to buying Lucky Charms. If Prince Field really wanted to stay in Milwaukee, he would. Look at Joe Mauer.

 

[sveumrules]

It seems like this year's budget is already nearly as high as it is going to get, so i'd guess any potential extension starts next year. Say we offer him the CC money, 5/100. Break it up however you like 5 @ 20, 15,20,20,20,25, whatever. Would Prince sign that?

 

I think it's a very fair offer and he'd have to at least consider it. There are a bunch of first basemen set to be free agents in the next two years, the Yankees are obviously set and prince probably won't want to become a full time DH at age 28 all factors which diminish the amount of money he'll be able to get as a free agent. Throw in his body type and is any team really going to give him that 7 or 8 year deal that Boras will be looking for, regardless of how productive he is over the next two seasons?

 

If he were to sign that 5/100 deal, he would hit free agency again coming into his age 32 season. He would also enter free agency with Ryan Braun, so I guess I highly anticipate that 2015 offseason. On a mostly unrelated note in 2015 & 16 the Rays hold an 11 & 11.5 million team option on Evan Longoria. At least Braun can take solace knowing that.

[paul253]

This may sound dumb but I think if Josh Butlet and Mike Jones can make big strides this year, and Manny Parra as well, it would go a long way towards resigning Prince Fielder. Here's my reasoning. After the 2010 season Jeff Suppan and his absurd salary finally come off the books. Dave Bush is making something like $5 million this year and isn't under contract past this year, and Doug Davis is making $4.25 million for this year with a mutual option next season. If those guys can be replaced by Jones and Butler, then the Brewers can let them all walk. That would be about $21 million coming off the books with 2 players making minimum salary replacing them....in other words a HUGE savings. This would also involve Manny Parra being able to hold down the #3 spot, which would mean a 2011 rotation of Gallardo, Wolf, Parra, Jones, and Butler. I realize it's an incredible reach, but both Jones and Butler made huge strides last year and if they do the same this year it's not out of the question. Obviously there would be some depth that would need to be signed. Capuano and maybe Narveson may still be options as well. But if you let $21 million come off the books and not have to replace it with a FA pitcher you are paying $6 or $7 million a year, you're talking $15-$20 million dollars available just by replacing three guys. That doesn't even include the Hall and Riske contracts which is another $10 million or so. Plus it would be one year closer for all the other pitching prospects to hopefully develop. I think its possible to have enough money available to resign Fielder, but a lot of pieces are going to have to fall in place.

[Invader3K]

I don't think the problem is really paying Prince in 2011 or even 2012. It's 2013-2015 when a lot of the other guys (Braun) will start to get more expensive.

 

I think a five year deal could be feasible, though, and could make a lot of sense for Fielder. If he continues to play well and stays healthy, he could be in line for one more huge contract when he's about 31. If he holds out for an 8 year deal, that will basically be his one big pay day as I see it. He'd be in his mid 30's rather than his early 30's, and I can't see him getting another huge deal at age 34 with his body type.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I don't think the problem is really paying Prince in 2011 or even 2012. It's 2013-2015 when a lot of the other guys (Braun) will start to get more expensive.

 

I think a five year deal could be feasible, though, and could make a lot of sense for Fielder. If he continues to play well and stays healthy, he could be in line for one more huge contract when he's about 31. If he holds out for an 8 year deal, that will basically be his one big pay day as I see it. He'd be in his mid 30's rather than his early 30's, and I can't see him getting another huge deal at age 34 with his body type.

What about a front loaded contract? I know they are rare, but the Brewers will have to think outside the box when trying to sign Fielder.

[bucksbeat]

I don't think the problem is really paying Prince in 2011 or even 2012. It's 2013-2015 when a lot of the other guys (Braun) will start to get more expensive.

Regardless of the probability of signing Prince Fielder I find it interesting that people seem to think that it would put a stranglehold on the franchise long-term. Let's say the Brewers lock him up long-term, when we get to the point 3-4 years down the line when money is an issue to maintain a competitive team around him, would it be impossible to trade him at that point?

[Invader3K]

If he suddenly declines around 30 (not that I think he will), or has injury issues, yes, a big contract with a 1B could be very tough to trade.

[logan82]

I don't think the problem is really paying Prince in 2011 or even 2012. It's 2013-2015 when a lot of the other guys (Braun) will start to get more expensive.

 

I agree partially. Really the only part I disagree with is Braun never really gets expensive. I don't think he would have qualified for Super 2 status.

 

10:$1M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M, 13:$8.5M, 14:$10M, 15:$12M

[Invader3K]

True, but say in 2014 and 2015, you're paying Fielder $20 million as well. That's over $30 million tied up in two guys. Basically a third of the current payroll. If Gallardo is still around, he will probably be fairly expensive. Guys like Gamel, Escobar, etc. won't be all that cheap either.

[clancyphile]

True, but say in 2014 and 2015, you're paying Fielder $20 million as well. That's over $30 million tied up in two guys. Basically a third of the current payroll. If Gallardo is still around, he will probably be fairly expensive. Guys like Gamel, Escobar, etc. won't be all that cheap either.

But how many teams have a Braun/Fielder combo?

 

The key is to have a farm system to get the complementary parts for them coming on a constant basis.