2010 Projected Standings

[PrinceFielderx1]

Those projections just seem wrong to me. They're going to go from one of the best teams in RS to one of the worst in a single season? I know Escobar and Gomez may not hit as much as Cameron and Hardy, but Zaun will be an upgrade over Kendall and Hart really doesn't have anywhere to go but up at this point.

It's not adding up. I completely agree. Also to prove your point even further Hardy was so bad they had to demote him to AAA. Also, look at what Escobar did in Milwaukee while Hardy was in AAA. The only downgrade I can see on offense is Gomez compared to Cameron. That's it. These projections are going to prove to be way off. At least that is my opinion.

[TooLiveBrew]

Like Ennder noted, they updated the projections, so take a look now.

[logan82]

It has the Brewers as the 4th best team on offense in the NL so that isn't why we are at only 79 wins. Those projections are only a general guess at records at the end of the year. The teams could either outperform or underperform them. I would have guessed we are around 83 wins so I don't think they are to far off.

 

Not sure how we will still give up the 2nd most runs in 2010. That would be a total failure for the offseason. Maybe they don't hate out pitching. 765 would have put us around the middle of the NL last year. They have bunched all the pitching within about 80 runs. Last year the NL was 263 runs between the top and bottom teams.

[Ennder]

Projections will never match what really happens in a baseball season because they can't project luck/variance. I mean even if every single team in baseball started the season with exactly 81 win talent you would still have a couple of teams win 90 games and there would still be a couple teams that just got nailed by injuries who won under 70. I don't think anyone expects to be able to actually predict baseball, they can only project it. Personally I still think PECOTA is too negative on our rotation, the CHONE projections look a lot more likely to me. The CHONE projections would likely leave us with more RS than RA and a low 80 win total.

[JohnBriggs12]

Last year on June 6th, the Brewers were tied for 6th in fewest runs allowed and were 2 games in front with little offensive contribution from the left side of the infield. That was do mainly to a bullpen that's key guys Hoffman, Coffey, Villanueva, Stetter, and McClung on that date had ERA's of 0.00, 2.36, 3.33, 3.50, and 2.64 respectively. No starter other than Gallardo had an ERA below 4.52, and therein lied the problem. The bullpen was throwing too many innings.

 

On paper, the bullpen is deeper going into this year than it was last year. The rotation has added 2 guys who combined for 417 innings last year. As long as those two can consistently get into the 7th inning, they don't need to have sub 4 ERAs (around 4.25 or 4.30 will do), and it should allow the bullpen to be at or near the top of it's form longer and that right there should put them in the middle of the pack in runs allowed.

[logan82]

On a somewhat related note, has anybody contributed to the Fangraphs fan projections?

 

Chone projected record

[Baldkin]

Last year on June 6th, the Brewers were tied for 6th in fewest runs allowed and were 2 games in front with little offensive contribution from the left side of the infield. That was do mainly to a bullpen that's key guys Hoffman, Coffey, Villanueva, Stetter, and McClung on that date had ERA's of 0.00, 2.36, 3.33, 3.50, and 2.64 respectively. No starter other than Gallardo had an ERA below 4.52, and therein lied the problem. The bullpen was throwing too many innings.

Through May, their Bullpen IP was middle of the pack. Once the injuries hit, their BP innings pitched skyrocketed (including a whopping 125 in Sept -- compared to 67 in April and 81 in May)

They ended up throwing over 100 more bullpen innings last year than the Cardinals (544 to 437).

 

The starting pitching went down the tubes in June-Sept, ERA up near 6, compared to right around 4.3 for April/May.

[TooLiveBrew]

PECOTA changed their projections... again. Link

Now, apparently the Rockies will win 88 games, the Dodgers will be .500, & the Twins will go 80-82 in a weak AL Central. What on earth is going on at BP? This has made them look kinda bad imo.

[Invader3K]

I'm not sure why the Cubs are always ranked ahead of us in these things. I think they're going to be pretty bad this year, personally.

[trwi7]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

This has made them look kinda bad imo.

This has made them look stupid. Not only are they constantly changing their projections, but now their projections are something that has never been done in the history of baseball. Not once in the history of the league has every team won at least 70 games and only on two occasions by my count during a 162 game season has a team not won 95.

 

 

[Ennder]

This has made them look stupid. Not only are they constantly changing their projections, but now their projections are something that has never been done in the history of baseball. Not once in the history of the league has every team won at least 70 games and only on two occasions by my count during a 162 game season has a team not won 95.

 

You are looking at this completely wrong. These are projections and not predictions. A prediction is a snapshot of the results of a single season and you would want them to look like a historical season, you are basically making an educated guess on which teams will perform above or below their talent level. A projection is the average of the results of thousands of seasons, these are going to always lead to a set of wins-losses that don't look normal.

 

If somehow every single team in baseball had exactly 81 win talent to start the season there would still be a few teams that won 90 games and a few that won less than 70. The proper projection would be that every team wins 81 games. A proper prediction would be a random guess on which teams had more players play to the top of their talent level or got hurt etc.

 

They already admitted they should have put a beta tag on it for the first week or so, they rushed it out because people are always complaining they don't come out early enough. But the projections should change based on moves being made in baseball and playtime data being updated etc. They should be changing constantly throughout spring training for sure.

[berniebrewer4life]

I'm not sure why the Cubs are always ranked ahead of us in these things. I think they're going to be pretty bad this year, personally.

They really are a shell of the team that won 97 games in 2008. That outfield looks really bad. The league has caught up to Fukudome, Soriano is just plain getting old, Byrd is alright, but nothing great. Is soto going to bounce back, or is last year's production what we should really expect from him? From looking at his minor league numbers, he only had one year(out of 6) where he had more than 9 Hrs and 40 rbi. Ramirez and Lee are really the only two threats in that lineup, and that's assuming age doesn't catch up with either of them(Lee is 34, and A-ram is 32). It's really up to their pitching, but that really isn't saying much. Unless someone comes up big, this team will be lucky to reach 80 wins.

[crewcrazy]

Fukudome had a bad last month of the season, but looked a lot better last year than he did in his first season (he had an .842 OPS heading into September). I'll agree that their season hinges on the health of Lee and Ramirez, and that they do look like a .500ish team, but who in this division (outside of the Cardinals) doesn't look like a team that tops out at 80-82 wins?

[berniebrewer4life]

Fukudome had a bad last month of the season, but looked a lot better last year than he did in his first season (he had an .842 OPS heading into September). I'll agree that their season hinges on the health of Lee and Ramirez, and that they do look like a .500ish team, but who in this division (outside of the Cardinals) doesn't look like a team that tops out at 80-82 wins?

Everybody in this division looks mediocre, but my point was i was shocked how far a team that had 97 wins two years ago has fallen.