2010 Projected Standings

[Tedaldtada]

From Revenge of the RLYW (CAIRO): http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html

From Baseball Prospectus: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

[lukevan]

Oh my God, what? 75 wins?! How are we worse than last year?

 

And the Yanks come in 3rd in the AL East? Might as well chuck these predictions in the dumpster.

[Crew2323]

So according to Baseball Prospectus, the Brewers are projected to give up 77 more runs this year than they did last year (895 projected vs. 818 last year)? That would mean that the pitching staff would have to be even more colossally horrid than it was last year. I, for one, would be stunned if that happened.

[Tedaldtada]

Yea, and the A's are in 1st. The CAIRO formula seems better but projecting anyone for 102 wins is pretty foolish, even the Yankees.

[Ennder]

I think something weird is probably going on with the pitching projections or more likely maybe with the Brewers defensive projections causing the pitching to look worse.

[Klements Bratwurst]

What is with all the Reds love this year in the projections???

[Tedaldtada]

Yea, BP, really? Tied for league lead in .SLG with a middling .OBP and over 800 runs scored. They must see career declines for just about all of our pitchers (Hoffman, Wolf, Davis, Hawkins, Coffey). They have us giving up the most runs in the league by 20+ runs. I'd chalk this up to a worst case run prevention/pitching along with the roughly expected offensive scenario.

[TooLiveBrew]

Those BP projections are awful. I read somewhere that they were off by an average of 8.5 games last season. I can't take this year's projected standings seriously at all. Just look at the runs projections... the Brewers led the NL in runs allowed last season at 818. Now in 2010 we're going to give up 895? Ummm, yeah -- just like how the Royals as a team are going to hit .279/.346/.424/.770

 

And weren't the PECOTA projections (BP) beaten by just about every main projection system last season? I thought I read that too.

[RobDeer 45]

Wow. Terrible. I'm trying not to be a homer but thos look awful.

 

And can I second that, what's up with the Reds? Do you guys think they will bust out this year?

[TooLiveBrew]

CHONE has 9 guys projected to have ERAs below 5 (but it also has Volquez throwing 115 IP, which is probably too high for a guy due back mid-season from TJ surgery). Here are the best CHONE slash line projections by position --

 

C Hernandez: .257/.329/.405/.734
1B Votto: .303/.381/.528/.909
2B Phillips: .272/.324/.443/.767
3B Rolen: .275/.350/.430/.780
SS Cozart: .246/.319/.365/.684
LF Balentien: .265/.342/.487/.829
CF Heisey: .276/.332/.446/.778
RF Bruce: .286/.351/.539/.890

Rolen is really the only hitter there I think of as an injury risk (though I'm not familiar with Cozart or Heisey). I think there's a good chance the Brewers, Cubs, & Reds are all pretty close.

[Funketown]

Something isn't kosher about those projections, they're way out of wack.

 

Just to clarify, 895 runs against in 162 games is 5.52 per game. Unless Jeff Suppan starts every game for the Brewers, that's a ridiculously high projection.

[brewerguy71]

Its a pretty low estimate, but not completely out of the question. Wolf could be Looper 2.0 and then there is the bottom 3/5ths of the rotation that isnt horribly promising.

[Tedaldtada]

The record isn't what bothers me. It's the RA. It just isn't very realistic. If it is, DM can kiss his job goodbye.

[TooLiveBrew]

In what way could Wolf be Looper 2.0?

[brewerguy71]

In what way could Wolf be Looper 2.0?

 

 

Fly Ball/ HR pitcher going from pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium to hitter friendly Miller Park. Also, Huge BABIP bonus coming down to earth.

[Invader3K]

I remember last year the Reds were picked to finish ahead of the Brewers by a couple "experts". Seems like they always get more love than they deserve for some reason.

[TooLiveBrew]

Interesting points, bg71. What kind of weight does Wolf's significantly better (than Looper's) K-rate play? Would that make him less likely to get eaten alive by MP?

[trwi7]

Fly Ball/ HR pitcher going from pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium to hitter friendly Miller Park. Also, Huge BABIP bonus coming down to earth.

 

Eh. He had a .257 BABIP last year compared to .294 for his career. I don't think you can expect a 5 something ERA because of that. He pitched in Minute Maid Park for half a season and did fine. His career ERA at Wrigley Field is the same as it is at Dodger Stadium. His career ERA at Great American Ballpark is 3.81. It's 3.64 at Petco.

 

His career ERA away from Dodger Stadium and Petco is 4.18.

[brewerguy71]

It wasnt so much a comparison of pitching styles as to how they were acquired. I can see Wolf putting up a 2 win advantage type of season which isnt bad. But his k rate isnt extremely huge, add in his ok walk rate, lots of contact being made there. I just dont think its a good recipe for Miller Park. Look at some of his HR rates when a Philly. MP isnt as homer friendly, but its not horribly far off.

[areacodes]

BP has updated their projections and now has the Brewers giving up 805 runs while scoring 766 runs for a projected record of 77-85 and tied with the Cubs for 3rd place in the Central.

 

The Brewers rank 3rd worst in the NL in RA (behind the Marlins and Pirates).

The Brewers rank 3rd best in the NL in RS (behind the Phillies and Rockies).

[Invader3K]

Those projections just seem wrong to me. They're going to go from one of the best teams in RS to one of the worst in a single season? I know Escobar and Gomez may not hit as much as Cameron and Hardy, but Zaun will be an upgrade over Kendall and Hart really doesn't have anywhere to go but up at this point.

[Ennder]

Part of the update was the fact that defense was being double counted and that is probably why the Brewers runs dropped so much. My guess is the defense is still going to be better than the system thinks if the impact from double counting it was 80 runs.

 

As for Wolf being Suppan 2.0, pretty much doubt it.

 

Suppan's last 3 seasons with the Cardinals his FIP were 4.77, 4.53, 4.70. His first year with the Brewers it was 4.42. The past 2 seasons it has been worse due to age/injuries/luck whatever but the first year he pitched more or less just like in STL. It should have been very clear that Suppan was a 4.50+ ERA pitcher going into the deal and that is why so many didn't like the deal.(I'm looking at FIP instead of xFIP because of the change in ballparks meaning his HR/FB should change.)

 

Wolf's last 3 seasons his FIP has been 3.99, 4.17, 3.96. He is genuinely a better pitcher than Suppan was and by a significant amount. The expectation for Wolf should be an ERA under 4.50. I'd say the PECOTA result is probably too high and my guess is PECOTA hates the Brewers defense and that is the cause.

 

Edit:

 

Ok I dug a bit deeper and it is definitely the defense causing the problem. I've never liked FRAA as a statistic and they are in the process of updating their defensive model so hopefully they get that done this season. It has Gamel listed as the worst fielder in baseball. Fielder is the worst 1B in baseball not believing he'll keep up last years improvements. Gomez is one of the better CF in baseball but Escobar is basically league average. It also lists all of our C as negatives. Overall it looks like the Brewers have close to the worst defense in baseball and I don't believe that is really true. That is why the pitching projections seem a bit too high to me.

[logan82]

It has Gamel listed as the worst fielder in baseball. Fielder is the worst 1B in baseball not believing he'll keep up last years improvements. Gomez is one of the better CF in baseball but Escobar is basically league average. It also lists all of our C as negatives. Overall it looks like the Brewers have close to the worst defense in baseball and I don't believe that is really true. That is why the pitching projections seem a bit too high to me.

 

I think they are underrating our catchers, but the rest seem reasonable. I don't think we are one of the worst teams on defense though. I think we will be average overall or a little better with the possibility of being very good. Braun and Hart are certainly possibilities to be at least average defenders although I count on them being below average.

[rluzinski]

Those projections just seem wrong to me. They're going to go from one of the best teams in RS to one of the worst in a single season?

 

The Brewers scored 785 runs last year and BP has them projected to score 766 runs this year. 19 run drop. One less run every 8 games. .1 less runs a game. That sounds completely reasonable to me.

[Ennder]

They updated these again and now we are at 79 wins. Part of what they did was tweak defense. It now lists us at 746 runs scored(still most in division) and 765 runs allowed.