fausto carmona

[Milltownhooker]

Indians trying to move him to afford Orlando Hudson. Would cost concerns eliminate the crew as a trade partner? http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-offseason-buzz-012010

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think any team is going to take on Carmona and it's not just because of salary. His numbers the last 2 seasons have been ugly even by 09 Brewer rotation standards.

[BREWERPRIDE]

I would love to see Doug get Carmona. He can either drop Bush, but that would be pointless to me, but that would look right to me too because we still have to many pitchers or he can do something with Hart and his salary. Carmona did with 19 games and is a young 25, I would love to get him.

[thebruce44]

He is the classic case of why you need to slowly increase innings in your young starters (and why the Brewers were wise to shut Yo down this season). He went from 102 IP in 2006 to 215 in 2007 (+149). Since then he has never been the same pitcher.

 

To a lesser extent I wonder what will happen to Clay Buchholz this coming season after his IP went up 56 IP from 134.2 to 191.

[nate82]

A Hart for Carmona trade wouldn't be a bad idea. The Brewers would only be on the hook for 1 more year of Carmona if he doesn't pitch well 2012-14 are all team option years in that contract. I don't think the Indians would do a trade for Hart though since they would want to be saving money on that trade. I could see a three way trade where the Brewers send Hart to a third team for a minor league prospect and then send that prospect to the Indians for Carmona. The Mets make some sense in this three way deal but I would believe the Mets would probably want Carmona instead of Hart in that deal but that all depends on what the Mets are looking for. They have Matthews Jr. now but I don't see that working out at all for them and they need another OF along with SP. It would really depend on the Mets needing a corner OF or another SP.

 

I don't believe Carmona is garbage I believe he is going to have a bounce back year this year. I think Carmona just needs a change of scenery and a change of pitching coaches I see that Carmona was throwing his fastball and slider less last year while he was using his change up more. I think Carmona is having the same problem that Parra is having. Carmona is exactly the type of pitcher the Brewers need to target. He is rather cheap for the next couple of years and only in 2014 is when he gets really expensive. Carmona is only 27 years old if the Brewers pick up his option each year they would have him until he is 31 years old. I don't see a big problem in the risk department here. His salary is low enough to where the Brewers can afford it and if he becomes somewhat like he was in 2007 again then this would be a bargain for the Brewers.

 

From Cot's: 10:$4.9M, 11:$6.1M, 12:$7M club option, 13:$9M club option, 14:$12M club option.

[BREWERPRIDE]

A Hart for Carmona trade wouldn't be a bad idea. The Brewers would only be on the hook for 1 more year of Carmona if he doesn't pitch well 2012-14 are all team option years in that contract. I don't think the Indians would do a trade for Hart though since they would want to be saving money on that trade. I could see a three way trade where the Brewers send Hart to a third team for a minor league prospect and then send that prospect to the Indians for Carmona. The Mets make some sense in this three way deal but I would believe the Mets would probably want Carmona instead of Hart in that deal but that all depends on what the Mets are looking for. They have Matthews Jr. now but I don't see that working out at all for them and they need another OF along with SP. It would really depend on the Mets needing a corner OF or another SP.

 

I don't believe Carmona is garbage I believe he is going to have a bounce back year this year. I think Carmona just needs a change of scenery and a change of pitching coaches I see that Carmona was throwing his fastball and slider less last year while he was using his change up more. I think Carmona is having the same problem that Parra is having. Carmona is exactly the type of pitcher the Brewers need to target. He is rather cheap for the next couple of years and only in 2014 is when he gets really expensive. Carmona is only 27 years old if the Brewers pick up his option each year they would have him until he is 31 years old. I don't see a big problem in the risk department here. His salary is low enough to where the Brewers can afford it and if he becomes somewhat like he was in 2007 again then this would be a bargain for the Brewers.

 

From Cot's: 10:$4.9M, 11:$6.1M, 12:$7M club option, 13:$9M club option, 14:$12M club option.

Exactly, I completely agree, the only problem here is, is the pitching problem.

 

That would mean we would release Bush correct? Because with Suppan Bush and Narveson we have 2 spots for 3 pitchers, so unless we have 13 pitchers on the roster, someone is going to be released this year. Correct? Because everyone is out of options.

[pogokat]

the only player i'd trade for carmona is suppan...they dodn't get any real talent from us...no way

[Milltownhooker]

Send Suppan & 7 Million to San Fran for Fred Lewis

[nate82]

Exactly, I completely agree, the only problem here is, is the pitching problem.

 

That would mean we would release Bush correct? Because with Suppan Bush and Narveson we have 2 spots for 3 pitchers, so unless we have 13 pitchers on the roster, someone is going to be released this year. Correct? Because everyone is out of options.

No not necessarily. The rotation as is right now is Gallardo, Wolf, and Davis who are guaranteed spots basically in the rotation. That leaves two spots open I don't think Narveson will get one of those spots though I wouldn't mind him getting one. That leaves Bush and Suppan one of these two will be in the bullpen and it probably will be Suppan. So you have a rotation of Gallardo, Wolf, Bush, Davis, and Parra/Narveson/Carmona/Suppan battling it out for the last rotation spot. With a bullpen that is pretty much set in the back end with Vargas, Hoffman, Hawkins, Coffey, and Stetter. So that leaves two spots open for about 5 players which include Narveson, Parra, Suppan, Villanueva, and Carmona. So the rotation isn't really as fixed as you may think it is the bullpen will probably consist of Suppan and Narveson/Parra. I don't see the Brewers keeping three lefty relievers in the bullpen though.

 

I believe Narveson is going to be the odd man out and will be designated for assignment I'm not sure if he will pass through waivers or if he will accept going back down to AAA. There should be some interest from other teams for Narveson though. Maybe the Brewers could work out a deal for Narveson plus to the Indians for Carmona. I'm not sure the Brewers budget would allow for that though. Hart or Bush would definitely need to be traded then though.

[Ennder]

If the team is giving up on 2010 I could see doing this. Carmona is even more of a project than Parra and having two of those in the rotation all year would be a disaster. Carmona has lost velocity, has lost control and when he does hit the strike zone hitters are making contact more often. His one good year was heavily luck influenced in the first place. I think you'd be lucky to get an ERA under 4 out of him even once over that contract.

[nate82]

Carmona has lost velocity, has lost control and when he does hit the strike zone hitters are making contact more often.

Huh? His velocity was up last year and with Carmona I believe he still has some options left so he could start the year out in AAA. Having extra depth at the starting pitching spot is never a bad idea.

 

Season	Team	FB	SL	CT	CB	CH	SF	KN	XX	PO
Total *	- - -	76.0% (93.2)	10.5% (84.2)		0.0% (00.0)	6.5% (86.7)	7.0% (85.3)		3.0%	0.1%
2006	Indians	77.2% (94.1)	15.3% (85.2)		0.1% (00.0)	3.6% (85.8)	3.9% (86.7)		2.9%	0.1%
2007	Indians	75.0% (93.5)	12.0% (83.7)				13.0% (85.1)		5.6%	0.1%
2008	Indians	80.9% (92.8)	8.8% (83.2)			2.6% (86.8)	7.7% (85.4)		1.0%	0.0%
2009	Indians	72.2% (93.0)	7.6% (85.6)			20.2% (86.8)			1.4%

Season	Team	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%	tRA	xFIP
Total Postseason	- - - - - -	2.58 4.83	15.1 % 18.6 %	61.2 % 67.4 %	23.7 % 14.0 %	5.8 % 0.0 %	11.6 % 33.3 %	6.1 % 17.2 %	26.3 % 0.0 %	4.70 6.33	4.48 4.39
2006	Indians	2.20	13.3 %	59.6 %	27.1 %	7.7 %	13.8 %	6.3 %	33.3 %	4.55	4.31
2007	Indians	2.97	14.0 %	64.3 %	21.7 %	5.6 %	11.1 %	6.8 %	33.3 %	3.86	3.88
2008	Indians	2.94	15.0 %	63.5 %	21.6 %	9.1 %	8.0 %	6.2 %	25.0 %	5.04	5.13
2009	Indians	2.04	17.8 %	55.2 %	27.0 %	2.6 %	13.7 %	4.6 %	16.7 %	5.83	4.98

[Ennder]

94 to 93.5 to 93 is not up. I don't think they are going to trade a player and pay Carmona over $4M to be in AAA though. If we decided to sort of tank 2010 I think this deal would make some sense. The situation we are in I think they are spending all the money they can to try to have a shot at the playoffs before Fielder is gone. Carmona doesn't do much to improve our chances for 2010 unless we are really lucky.

[nate82]

94 to 93.5 to 93 is not up. I don't think they are going to trade a player and pay Carmona over $4M to be in AAA though. If we decided to sort of tank 2010 I think this deal would make some sense. The situation we are in I think they are spending all the money they can to try to have a shot at the playoffs before Fielder is gone. Carmona doesn't do much to improve our chances for 2010 unless we are really lucky.

92.8 to 93 is though. So he has lost exactly 1 MPH from 2006. He is only .5 away from his 2007 year. So it is not that far of a drop off.

[thebruce44]

His only success came in 2007 though so who cares if his velocity came back up since a year ago? Also, his fastball has lost some movement since that 2007 and his change up has come up in velocity for some reason. His pitchfx stats are much easier to follow since nate's chart doesn't seem to be able to differentiate his changeup from his splitter (does he even throw both or maybe thats why his CU velocity has risen).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...playerid=3273&position=P

 

As I said before, that jump in innings killed him. It looks like he is slowly regaining some of his form, but he may be a lost cause.

[nate82]

So far this year for Carmona.

 

Season	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
2010	Indians	4	1	0	7	7	44.2	3.83	4.03	0.40	.257	75.6 %	53.1 %	4.3 %	3.43	4.30	5.16	0.5

 

Not great but he would definitely look good in a Brewers uniform right about now. His walks are a little bit high though still something that could be corrected though his LOB% is rather concerning. I still would prefer him over Davis or Parra.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hart for Carmona?

 

I completely take back what I posted in January.

 

I'd make that deal in a heartbeat. Carmona doesn't run up pitch counts like every other Brewer starter. He's averaging 6 1/3 per start. He keeps the ball in the park too. He's only allowed 2 HR in 51 1/3 innings His GO/AO ratio is 2.38 for his career.

 

He's fully capable of making even his option year numbers be very reasonable. He's much, much better than Bush, Davis or Parra and maybe Wolf too.

[Invader3K]

If you trade Hart, who plays RF? I don't want to see Gerut as the everyday RF, and Edmonds seems to be hurt.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hart for Carmona?

 

I completely take back what I posted in January.

 

I'd make that deal in a heartbeat. Carmona doesn't run up pitch counts like every other Brewer starter. He's averaging 6 1/3 per start. He keeps the ball in the park too. He's only allowed 2 HR in 51 1/3 innings His GO/AO ratio is 2.38 for his career.

 

He's fully capable of making even his option year numbers be very reasonable. He's much, much better than Bush, Davis or Parra and maybe Wolf too.

His 3.8% HR/FB is fluky (career 10.7% rate), so don't count on him keeping balls in the park like that, especially with a theoretical home park that plays to the HR in Miller. His FB, & IFFB rates are both well above career norms, and his BABIP & LD% are under. This is, with almost near certainty, not the Fausto Carmona you're going to see the rest of the season.

[nate82]

If you trade Hart, who plays RF? I don't want to see Gerut as the everyday RF, and Edmonds seems to be hurt.

Katin/Gerut/Edmonds platoon would work.

[TooLiveBrew]

Katin's hurt right now, though, isn't he?

[nate82]

Katin's hurt right now, though, isn't he?

I was pretending it was still the off season but yeah he is. I wonder what Inglett could do with some more playing time though.

[MNBrew]

If you trade Hart, who plays RF? I don't want to see Gerut as the everyday RF, and Edmonds seems to be hurt.

Katin/Gerut/Edmonds platoon would work.

The Brewers think so much of Brendan Katin that they never once brought him in to play in a big-league game in Spring Training -- a time when they brought 8 zillion guys over from the minor league camp.

 

Not that I don't like some of his skills, but short of a load of injuries, Katin in RF for the Brewers seems a notion that's extremely unrealistic.

[DHonks]

I've always thought Katin could carve out a niche as a Jay Buhner-type. He did well in past spring trainings, but you're right that they never brought him over this year. He could very well develop along the lines of Nelson Cruz.

[DHonks]

I've always thought Katin could carve out a niche as a Jay Buhner-type. He did well in past spring trainings, but you're right that they never brought him over this year. He could very well develop along the lines of Nelson Cruz.

[lawrie2012]

I know it's been awhile since Fausto Carmona's name was brought up but just curious what the thoughts were on the Brewers pursuing him? I know his name has popped up earlier in the year with us as a possible suitor. His stats this year have been pretty respectable with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, and I feel like a move to the National League would only help those stats. His contract isn't too bad either, he's set to make 6.1 million next year and then has 3 years in a row of club options from 2012 to 2014.