Pitching WAR

[logan82]

What are the problems with WAR for pitchers? I see some problem with how they set ERA for a replacement level pitcher(80% of average seems to low) but I really don't know if they even use that for calculating WAR.

[brewjihad]

The calculation at Fangraphs uses just FIP. You find the difference between an average inning and the pitcher's inning in FIP, divide by 9 to scale it to 1 inning, and then multiply it by the number of innings pitched to compare it to the average.

 

The methodology makes plenty of sense, and there can really only be two objections to it:

 

- Using FIP over straight ERA, tERA, or a hybrid. FIP looks to be the best to me as of now because ERA is so heavily influenced by other factors over 1 year, and though tERA is the most sound stat, batted ball classification isn't at the point yet where I would trust it as an indicator over FIP.

 

- Replacement level. 80% of league average comes out to around a 5.50 ERA that is used for replacement level starters. You can argue that it's low, but a fifth starter in the majors doesn't beat that mark by very much. And FIP is much more clustered to the average than ERA, causing fewer outliers.

[logan82]

The average 32 worst starts per team come out to a 5.56 ERA on average in the NL and 6.47 in the AL. That is only using the 160 starts with the best ERA. Basically dropping 2 starts from the worst ERA pitcher on each team. WAR seems to work pretty well for position players, although I have never looked into it to deeply but for pitchers it seems like they are more likely to have value to a team even if they have a negative WAR.

 

I guess my objection is using 5.50 ERA as a replacement player. I will have to look into FIP like I did ERA for starters.

[TooLiveBrew]

What do you find wrong with 5.50 ERA being replacement?

[logan82]

Replacement level is theoretically freely available talent yet there are only 6 teams that got a better than 5.50 ERA out of their 5th spot in the rotation.