What's up with Corey Hart? Latest: Hart wins arbitration hearing (post # 190)

[monty57]

But they're projecting him to do a complete turnaround from what he's done the previous two years, when he hasn't had an injury that would seem to be a reasonable excuse for the drop in production. His one extreme year, three years ago seems to really be skewing what those projection systems are projecting.

 

I really hope he's able to bump up his production. It would sure help the Brewers' chances. He is obviously capable of putting up bigger numbers, as he's done it in the past. However, something has happened (likely pitchers figuring him out), and he has put up pretty poor numbers in the recent past. Unless he's able to get a better eye at the plate without a significant loss of power, I see him as a .750-ish OPS guy. I hope I'm wrong.

[rluzinski]

Rluz, do you honestly expect Hart to put up a .785 OPS?

 

I think that's a reasonable expectation, yeh. It really doesn't seem like a big deal to me. An average OBP and a SLG he put up in 2008 would do it. Not a very bullish projection for a 28 year old.

 

And besides 2007, his defense has been pretty below average. In fact, the defensive metrics backup what I have said before in this thread...that he has seriously regressed.

 

Looking at his UZR, I think that's an understandable position. Maybe average is a stretch but I think a little below average is reasonable.

[sheethead]

I was thinking this was his 3rd arby year, but you are right, its his 2nd.

 

Whoops, I thought this was his 3rd year as well. Well, he has two years to prove his FA werth (spelled incorrectly to add pun).

[thebruce44]

I was thinking this was his 3rd arby year, but you are right, its his 2nd.

 

Whoops, I thought this was his 3rd year as well. Well, he has two years to prove his FA werth (spelled incorrectly to add pun).

At the same time it just makes his salary demand all the more ridiculous. If anyone was thinking about taking advantage of Doug for not wanting to go to Arby hearings they may end up thinking twice after the team makes an example out of Hart.

[joepepsi]

Hart was sitting at a .768OPS before the appy. .785 isn't a stretch to expect at all. His power was way down last year. I think it's reasonable to expect him to get some of that back. He'll be 15-20 points on either side of .800.

[rluzinski]

It isn't just not a stretch, it's the consensus.

[monty57]

and that makes it indisputable fact

[Invader3K]

Being called out for what? Realizing that a broom sweeper is l worthess than an engineer and an engineer is worth less than a doctor? Do you referring to something else?

No, your comment about how "I doubt anyone here can say that", in regards to making Hart's salary, as if that is really relevant to the conversation. The attitude you've been showing in this whole thread isn't really too surprising given your previous posting history, though.

[rluzinski]

Being called out for what? Realizing that a broom sweeper is l worthess than an engineer and an engineer is worth less than a doctor? Do you referring to something else?

No, your comment about how "I doubt anyone here can say that", in regards to making Hart's salary, as if that is really relevant to the conversation. The attitude you've been showing in this whole thread isn't really too surprising given your previous posting history, though.

This is hilarious. You were surprised that no one else "called me out" because you didn't read my response carefully enough and concluded that I was just taking a childish cheap shot at someone. My point was about supply and demand, not "Hart makes more money than you, so chew on that!"

 

and that makes it indisputable fact

 

No, it just makes it not surprising that I agree that Hart's over/under is around .785 OPS. That seems to be the consensus projection. That doesn't mean that your (or whomever's it was) .750 OPS is wrong.

[Invader3K]

*shrug* Here's what you wrote:

 

First, as disappointing as Hart has been the last couple of years, he is still worth millions of dollars to whatever team has his services. I doubt anyone reading this right now can say the same. FWIW, Fangraphs had his performance worth (in average free agent dollars), $3.2 mil last year and $4.6 mil the year before. If he was worth what a school teacher was worth to his employer, he wouldn't even be in the league.

 

Don't know how I took that wrong, but it just seemd unnecessary to me. Whatever, no skin off my back either way.

[Pointer1VB]

Article about fantasy baseball and Hart, but still relevant...

 

http://insider.espn.go.co...3dkarabell_eric_baseball

[Ennder]

*shrug* Here's what you wrote:

 

First, as disappointing as Hart has been the last couple of years, he is still worth millions of dollars to whatever team has his services. I doubt anyone reading this right now can say the same. FWIW, Fangraphs had his performance worth (in average free agent dollars), $3.2 mil last year and $4.6 mil the year before. If he was worth what a school teacher was worth to his employer, he wouldn't even be in the league.

 

Don't know how I took that wrong, but it just seemd unnecessary to me. Whatever, no skin off my back either way.

I think he meant nobody reading this is talented enough at baseball to be worth millions of dollars. You are correct that it doesn't add much to the argument but I don't think he meant it in a negative way.

[greeg35]

I think he meant no one is talented enough at their JOBS to be worth 1 mil (or no one's job is worth it for anyone to pay us 1mil to do). And I agree with him otherwise we would be paid as such. The supply/demand of/for our skills dictate our pay. Corey Hart's too; although the arbitration process artificially sets the demand for Hart's services by lowering the potential bidders (1) and artificially props up his ability to command a certain level of pay (not directly determined by the market; but indirectly by comparisons).

[Principessa21]

Am I the only one that when reading this thread title thinks:

http://www.thegregbradyproject.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/seinfeld-stand-up.JPG

"What's the deal with Corey Hart?"?

[Milltownhooker]

When does MLB usually announce the hearing dates for these players?

[thebruce44]

Jamie (Canada)

How do you view Ramsus long term (in a hitting sense)? Is he a Sizemore/Edmunds type player or more of a Cory Hart type?

 

Klaw

(1:57 PM)

Sizemore.

Edmonds' power peak was rather unexpected, so I'm not going to hang

that on the kid yet. But Corey Hart is just an awful hitter, an

inveterate hacker, while Rasmus controls the zone and works the count.

Couldn't be more different.

[Invader3K]

Ouch. Keith Law not exactly showing the love for Hart at all.

[monty57]

I guess sometimes you can learn something by actually watching the player to determine why he's had a significant drop off in production rather than simply reading stat lines and inputting them into a formula that suppposedly works for every player simply because it's made up of the aggregate stats of every person who's ever played the game.

 

Seemingly, those who don't care about things like mechanics, but simply look at the numbers feel that Hart will do fine. Those that have watched him have some worries. Personally, I'm worried about both:

 

-He has terrible plate discipline and swings wildly at bad pitches. His walk rate was up last year mainly due to the fact that Brewers' management told him to watch more pitches. This increased his walks, but unfortunately, he couldn't catch up to a fastball while doing this, so his power dropped off. Now they're telling him to go back to his wild swinging ways. This could get him back to where he was a few years ago, but is likely to see him looking like he did at the end of 2008 after the pitchers figured him out.

 

-The projection line really seems to forget one basic principle of math... that averages are greatly skewed by one number that is significantly higher or lower than the rest. This is why the housing market uses median numbers rather that average numbers. One million dollar house sold skews the average price if all the other houses are $65,000. In Hart's case, one .895 OPS season skews the fact that he's been a .750 OPS guy for the past two years.

 

The difference between a .750 guy and a .785 guy isn't that great, but saying it's expected (over/under) for him to be a .785 guy seems a stretch. That would mean that it's as likely that he hits .820 OPS as it is for him to hit .750 again. I don't believe that's the case. He's capable of .820, but more likley to hit .750.

[sheethead]

My problem with projecting Hart to be anywhere near .785 is the fact that he had 3/4 of a banner season and has fallen off dramatically since. Players who take the league by storm, then have the league figure them out, and subsequently drop way off for 2+ years often don't recover (see Bill Hall). If Hart hadn't gotten his walks up last year, his slash stats would look very ugly. I am not sure what to expect from Hart this year, but I have great doubts he will be anywhere near .800.

 

Edit: I'm going to predict .320/.420/.740

[Ennder]

In Hart's case, one .895 OPS season skews the fact that he's been a .750 OPS guy for the past two years.

 

The difference between a .750 guy and a .785 guy isn't that great, but saying it's expected (over/under) for him to be a .785 guy seems a stretch. That would mean that it's as likely that he hits .820 OPS as it is for him to hit .750 again. I don't believe that's the case. He's capable of .820, but more likley to hit .750.

 

That isn't really true though. He had an OPS of .822 as late as sept 1st of 2008. If you were going to break his production down starting in 2007 he has pretty darn close to 2 years of solid production(albeit with a low OBP so a bit overstated by OPS) and a little under 1 year of futility(since he was hurt for more than a month last year). I'd say his career numbers are probably a better indicator of what to expect than either chunk taken on its own since the bad streak is basically only one single season which isn't nearly enough data to make a judgment on.

 

If he doesn't keep taking walks there is almost no way he rebounds to a solid level though.

[dlk9s]

I don't understand where the implication that he might not give 100% comes from.

 

Very often Hart looks like he is not giving 100% effort. It may just be his country, golly-gee-willikers style oozing out, but he appears doggish at times. At least to me anyway. I am not saying he doesn't give the effort.

This may sound lame, but tall, lanky guys typically have longer, loping strides when they run, making it look like they aren't trying hard. I'm not as tall as Corey, but I have long legs and had a long stride when I played sports back in the day. When I ran track, my mom always told me that I looked like I barely needed to put forth any effort. I assured her that my body told me otherwise.

[sheethead]

I don't understand where the implication that he might not give 100% comes from.

 

Very often Hart looks like he is not giving 100% effort. It may just be his country, golly-gee-willikers style oozing out, but he appears doggish at times. At least to me anyway. I am not saying he doesn't give the effort.

This may sound lame, but tall, lanky guys typically have longer, loping strides when they run, making it look like they aren't trying hard. I'm not as tall as Corey, but I have long legs and had a long stride when I played sports back in the day. When I ran track, my mom always told me that I looked like I barely needed to put forth any effort. I assured her that my body told me otherwise.

That could be it also.

[thebruce44]

I have also seen him botch a decent number of routine plays due to a lack of concentration. When someone has the tools to be a good defender and manages to do it for an entire season...then stops...you are going to get acquisitions of laziness.

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm down on Hart like many. I would be shocked/amazed/happy if he comes out and tears it up ala 2007 and first half of 2008. If he plays like he did during that time period I would be very happy with RF production.

[bobskube]

I really feel that Hart's best days are behind him.

 

I remember just a couple years ago the thoughts of him being traded for Matt Cain and people complained that Hart was a cornerstone for the future. Much like Hall, he will fall on his face and we will get nothing for him. Thank god he didn't sign that extension.