What's up with Corey Hart? Latest: Hart wins arbitration hearing (post # 190)

[logan82]

Right, but why do you feel it necessary to say that? To me it implies

that you already dislike Hart & question his effort &

dedication.

I agree. How do you know he isn't doing everything he can to get better?

[lcbj68c]

Hart deserves as much as he can get. The Brewers deserve to pay as little as they can for his services. If Hart is overestimating his worth (and it appears that he is), I have no emotional response to that. He rolled the dice and he has a good chance of losing. As a fan, I don't feel wronged.

 

Very well said Russ. I wish I could have said that in so little words as you did, as that's my point.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't understand where the implication that he might not give 100% comes from. This, imo, is the problem with fan expectations. Sometimes dips in performance aren't related to effort given by the players.

 

For the most part I agree with you but when said player gets lighter from one season to the next simply by doing a harder off season regime it stands to reason he could/should have been doing that every off season and didn't. While I think Hart played his hardest while on the field I think maybe he should have been working as hard every off season as he seems to have this one. The off seaosn work is part of giving 100%.

[lcbj68c]

Thank god you didn't say 110% percent. There's nothing that drives me more bonkers than somebody saying "give 110%"...as you can't give 110% http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[strawbossisevil]

I think anyone is capable of putting in more effort in their job. He should recognize that with a higher salary comes higher expectations and work even harder than he´s ever worked in the past.

 

I have cheered for Hart since he first came up, and was at his first game when he crushed that foul ball. That said, it has been frustrating the last couple of years to see him fall short of expectations. He has left a lot of talent and potential on the table IMO. Why that is, is anyone´s guess. It could be that he doesn´t have the capacity of making adjustments.

 

He was an All Star player the first half of 2007, and since then he´s been a platoon player at best (which I feel he should be to start out this season until he proves otherwise).

[logan82]

On the other hand, Hart only had one bad year in his career before this year and that was 2008. There was little need to change your offseason routine much over one bad year.

[TooLiveBrew]

He was an All Star player the first half of 2007, and since then he´s been a platoon player at best (which I feel he should be to start out this season until he proves otherwise).

But he can't prove he's not a platoon player if he doesn't get ABs against RHP. I don't disagree with you in general, as I'd like to see Gerut (& hopefully Edmonds) get a solid amount of PAs v. RHP this coming season. However, I'd rather let Hart play everyday until he proves he's a liability against RHP -- he actually hit them much better than LHP in 2009.

[logan82]

Actually the strange part about Hart is his splits. He had a .264/.336/.437/.773 line against RHP last year which isn't to far off his RHP splits in 2007. He just didn't crush LHP in 2009 like he did in 2007(not that I would expect him to). If he had been even league average against LHP, his line would have looked much better.

[strawbossisevil]

I just don´t see how it is anyone´s right to say how others should feel about the situation. If what Hart and his agents actions in the arbitration process don´t bother you. No one is saying you have to change that tune.

 

But there are those of us who desire that a player be payed in regard to his performance, and for Hart to get a significant raise after how he´s played the last two seasons would not be fitting given his performance.

 

And it is, after all, in the best interest of the team that our players are signed to deals that are of a decent value, because we do have a limited amount of resources. Because of this fact, can you not see why some of us are a bit annoyed that Hart is asking for a raise he has done nothing in the past two seasons to earn? And how his asking for said raise makes competing as a team with limited resources that much more difficult?

 

Like we´ve said all along, he´s entitled to ask for as much as he can get. But in doing so, we are entitled to our opinions of how he goes about doing that, especially when he is overvaluing himself and looking for a contract that would be likely supersede his performance - and how asking for said contract puts the team as a whole in a bad spot.

[strawbossisevil]

But he can't prove he's not a platoon player if he doesn't get ABs against RHP. I don't disagree with you in general, as I'd like to see Gerut (& hopefully Edmonds) get a solid amount of PAs v. RHP this coming season. However, I'd rather let Hart play everyday until he proves he's a liability against RHP -- he actually hit them much better than LHP in 2009.

I´d rather do what is best for the team. But, I know it is unlikely that they do a full platoon situation with Hart. At the very least I´d like a 50/50 split of playing time in RF. That would give Hart the chance to swing the bat against RHP, but not at the expense of what is likely to be better performance from Gerut/Edmonds.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just don´t see how it is anyone´s right to say how others should feel about the situation. If what Hart and his agents actions in the arbitration process don´t bother you. No one is saying you have to change that tune.

 

I agree. I don't ask you to change your tune. I just find the implication that Hart hasn't worked hard enough to be reckless. Maybe the reason he's been able to drop ~20 lbs. this offseason is that he's worked really hard in past offseasons to bulk up with muscle. There's never been anyone as far as I can recall that thought he looked even remotely close to out of shape at any point in his MLB career.

 

I understand why some people are annoyed with Hart over the arbitration thing. I just think some are taking it too far & too personally.

I´d rather do what is best for the team

I do too, but the tricky thing imo is that what might be best for the team is to let Hart get back on track. It's a tough decision.

[sheethead]

Like the police officer whom shouldn't write you a ticket because you already pay his salary with your taxes?

 

I don't see how that is comparable. I don't pay taxes by choice or for my amusement. I don't mean to argue with you, I see your point. I see the other fan's point as well. Like it or not, Corey Hart (or his agent) is setting the stage for some tense moments if he struggles this year. Everyday people with everyday jobs will not back a player that rips fans for booing, thinks he is worth more than he is (regardless of whether he should get as much as possible), and tortures the crowd with country music before he bats.

[sheethead]

Maybe the reason he's been able to drop ~20 lbs. this offseason is that he's worked really hard in past offseasons to bulk up with muscle.

 

I'm of the opinion that Hart busted his rump with the insanity workout because he knows its do or die time this year. Contract year? You bet!

[strawbossisevil]

...and tortures the crowd with country music before he bats.

This can not be overstated. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[trwi7]

On the other hand, Hart only had one bad year in his career before this year and that was 2008. There was little need to change your offseason routine much over one bad year.

 

One bad year out of two. 50%. Now we're at two bad years out of three.

[logan82]

Right, and he made a change this offseason in his routine apparently. After one bad year he may not have seen the need to change much.

[TooLiveBrew]

I know I'm nitpicking to an extent, but "below average" /= "bad". The average NL RF put up a .781 OPS in 2009.

[logan82]

I know I'm nitpicking to an extent, but "below average" /= "bad". The average NL RF put up a .781 OPS in 2009.

He really wasn't that far off of average on offense. .335/.418/.753 vs. .339/.442/.781

[lcbj68c]

tortures the crowd with country music before he bats.

 

Ditto that.

[monty57]

I know I'm nitpicking to an extent, but "below average" /= "bad". The average NL RF put up a .781 OPS in 2009.

He really wasn't that far off of average on offense. .335/.418/.753 vs. .339/.442/.781

But he was 20th out of 27 RFs with 400+ ABs. Do the above referenced numbers include everyone who played (i.e. all the AAA guys who came up to fill in for an injury for a week)? Since the top 17 MLB RF's posted OPS over the .781 "average," and only 10 (including Hart) were under this "average," I'd guess the numbers are heavily skewed by part-time players. If the discussion is whether Hart is a full-time player, and deserves to be paid as such, his numbers should be compared to other full-time players, and the scrubs' numbers should be left out.

[rluzinski]

If the discussion is whether Hart is a full-time player, and deserves to be paid as such, his numbers should be compared to other full-time players, and the scrubs' numbers should be left out.

 

You think the average, non-pre arby starting major leaguer makes less than $5 mil a year?

 

What you need to do is make a projection for Hart and estimate what a free agent would make with those numbers. Then you take something like 60% of that (to adjust for him being in his second year arby) and that's what Hart is "worth". Roughly speaking, he projects to be about average defensively and offensively for a corner OFer. And yes, when we say average, we are not referring to the average of the players that accumulated more than a certain number of PA. In terms of what he's worth, it really doesn't matter what baseline you use, though.

[monty57]

I wasn't referring to what his pay should be, as I'm not overly interested in the dollar figure other than that full-time starters (at the same arby/free agent level) should be paid more than non-starters / bench players. Through ups and downs, salaries should remain relative, player-to-player. I would argue at this time that Hart is a fringe starting RF, and probably should be a platoon player, and therefore not be paid as a starter. He's going to get paid as a starter in large part due to the fact that the Brewers are woefully thin in the OF right now, and I believe that if Hart doesn't play better this year than he has in the past two that he will not be offered arby next year, and will be paid as the platoon player he probably is.

 

My previous post is directed more at the methodolgy of using every possible number (aggregates) when compiling research, with the belief that more data is always better than less data. In my humble opinion, if you are trying to determine if Hart is qualified to be a starting RF in major league baseball, you compare him to others who are starting RFs in major league baseball. It skews his numbers if you compare him to the number of guys who really don't belong in the majors, and are only there because of injury, and are DFA'd or sent back to AAA at the earlist possible point.

 

Why does this matter? I don't have the time right now to add up the stats of the 27 players who were able to put up 400+ ABs, but the "eyeball test" would appear that the average OPS of the actual starting RFs in baseball would be higher than .781. Therefore, stating that Hart is basically average is not true, unless you are saying he is average when you include all the scrubs that get thrown out there when teams don't have anyone better to play. Try to get the best data, not the most, and comparing apples to apples is better then comparing apples to a mix of apples and pumpkins.

 

Is a .750-ish OPS corner OF with some athleticism going to be thrown out of baseball? Probably not. Is he an "average" performer (i.e. someone who is better than half the guys playing the position)? Absolutely not. Is he worth the $6-7MM the Brewers will have to pay him in 2011? Probably not. I hope Hart puts it together and proves that he is better than he has looked for the last year and a half, so that he will deserve his contract in 2011. Otherwise a minimum salary Lorenzo Cain (or someone else) will make Hart very expendable very soon.

[thebruce44]

What you need to do is make a projection for Hart and estimate what a free agent would make with those numbers. Then you take something like 60% of that (to adjust for him being in his second year arby) and that's what Hart is "worth".

 

Correct me if I am wrong, but arby players are paid based on how they performed the last couple of years in relation to how similar FA signings are going that season. As I said before, with the way FA contracts are going he would be lucky to get a 1 yr 4+ deal. So lets say he gets 5 mil somehow. I was thinking this was his 3rd arby year, but you are right, its his 2nd. So he should be making around $3 mil and personally I don't even think he is worth that.

 

I don't want to get into the whole me being upset he thinks he is worth more than he really is argument, but as I have said before I can completely understand where fans come from. It also appears to me the Brewers treat their players extremely fairly though there arby years and Hart is trying to work that. Good for him, but it may mean that he isn't around much longer. I get the feeling he isn't fully aware of the consequences his actions can have but its a business and I am sure he will accept what happens to him this year and next salary and team wise (hopefully with the Brewers).

[rluzinski]

I would argue at this time that Hart is a fringe
starting RF, and probably should be a platoon player, and therefore not
be paid as a starter.

I can appreciate why you might think that but I don't believe that is true. For there to be average starting OFers, there has to be below average starting OFers. I see Hart as a below average starting OFer. Why?

Offensively, here is Hart's CHONE projection, as well as what the fans at Fangraphs guessed:

Hart 2010 Projections:
CHONE: .271/.333/.456/.789
Fans: .269/.329/.40/.779

Taking the average of the two, Hart is projected to be about a .785 OPS and .342 wOBA hitter for 2010. He's also seen as an average defender. Using CHONE, I'm only finding 37 corner OFers that project to have 400+ AB and an OPS over .785. This is terribly quick and dirty but it suggests Hart is a little below average starting corner OFer. I think he's pretty far from being a platoon player.

[thebruce44]

Hart 2010 Projections:

CHONE: .271/.333/.456/.789

Fans: .269/.329/.40/.779

 

Taking the average of the two, Hart is projected to be about a .785 OPS and .342 wOBA hitter for 2010. He's also seen as an average defender. Using CHONE, I'm only finding 37 corner OFers that project to have 400+ AB and an OPS over .785. This is terribly quick and dirty but it suggests Hart is a little below average starting corner OFer. I think he's pretty far from being a platoon player.

 

Rluz, do you honestly expect Hart to put up a .785 OPS? Those projections seem to put too much stock in his 2007 and normal growth and progresion of young players. Hart hasn't followed the standard model for a while now.

 

And besides 2007, his defense has been pretty below average. In fact, the defensive metrics backup what I have said before in this thread...that he has seriously regressed. I would be very happily surprised to see him be average defensively in RF next year.

 

All this leads me to the conclusion that he has been a fringe starter the last two years. I have a difficult time expecting or projecting it to be any different next year.