Ben Sheets to A's - 1 year, $10 million plus incentives

[Crew2323]

And don't tell me CC wore down in the playoffs. Cam catches that ball like he normally does 95 out of 100 times, and CC wins Game 1 for the Crew.

Gallardo pitched game 1 on of the NLDS, but your point remains.

[TheCrew07]

I'm shocked Sheets got 10 mil up front, that is all.

[TheCrew07]

Ask yourself, who would you rather have for the coming season? Doug Davis and LaTroy Hawkins, or Sheets?

Without a doubt it would be Davis and Hawkins - they are also cheaper.

I don't agree at all... there's way better value in Sheets if he's truly healthy. I would rather have 2 pitchers around the level of Gallardo on the staff thant 1 sarting pitcher who always pitches with runners on base, who doesn't approach 90 mph on his fastball, and is in his mid 30s plus paying premium dollar for a friggen reliever.

 

I realize WAR is imperfect, so please get past how it's calculated and look at what I'm trying to say.... WAR illustrates my point perfectly in this case. In every season Sheets has posted over 160 IP he's had a WAR greater than 3.7. Davis hasn't had a WAR above 2.4 since 2006 with the Brewers (2.8), he peaked at a 4.5 in 2004 and has been on a slow steady decline ever since. Hawkins hasn't had a WAR over 1.0 since 2004 because once again there just isn't tremendous value in relief pitching, they pitch too few innings.

 

Sheets worst WAR min 160 IP... 3.7

 

Hawkins last season above a 1, 2004 with a.... 1.2 (.3 last season)

 

Doug Davis maximum WAR since leaving the Crew.... 2.4 (1.7 last season)

 

I might stink at math, but it would appear to me that Hawkins/Davis would have to find the fountain of youth to equal Sheets' value if he manages to get 160 IP.... 3.6 combined WAR best case vs 3.7 worst case. The wildcard here is that no one really can say with any certainty how well Sheets will pitch coming off surgery. However, if Ben is healthy he's at least a 3 WAR pitcher, in that I have no doubt and even if Hawkins bounces back to another .8 (as he's done in the past, not all that far fetched for a reliever) Davis would also have to pitch a full win better than last season for them to be even be close to outpeforming Sheets' approximate value.

[owbc]

I think the A's actually got a good deal here. A Cy Young caliber free-agent pitcher for a 1-year, $10 million contract? We've seen that before, but this isn't Gagne. Sheets has proven that he will pitch at an elite level even when he is struggling with soreness/injuries like he was through most of 2008. He missed an entire season--his arm probably feels better than it has since he was in high school. The only worry is the possibility of him getting injured again--but since he only missed 15% of his time in Milwaukee with injuries, this also seems like a rather low risk.

 

The only concern that I have is with his velocity. Sheets always seemed to have trouble in the first inning when his fastball velocity was low--but you have to wonder if that could be attributed to his curveball usually not being effective until the 2nd or 3rd inning.

 

I also disagree that Sheets is a two-pitch pitcher. His two-seam fastball is an integral part of his success and is a completely different pitch than the straight 4-seam fastball. He also uses a changeup occasionally--the main reason he does not throw it more is because his other pitchers are so good that he doesn't have to.

 

I am glad he went to Oakland so it will not negatively affect the Brewers if he has a big year.

[BREWCREW5]

I'm delighted, both that Benny hasn't gone to one of the hated top 5, and that it puts to rest all the "we should sign Sheets" talk here at BF.net.

Well, the Brewers should have signed Sheets. Obviously, something went down behind the scenes where at least one of the parties hated the other at the end. Hopefully now he's signed somewhere the truth comes out.

 

Ask yourself, who would you rather have for the coming season? Doug Davis and LaTroy Hawkins, or Sheets?

More like Davis, Hawkins and Counsell, or Sheets?

 

Sheets will be on the DL for sure at some point in 2010.

 

[Invader3K]

Comparing Sheets to Davis/Hawkins/whomever is irrelevant at this point since Sheets did not want to come back to Milwaukee. I think he still is mad that Melvin didn't commit financial suicide for the team by offering Sheets a long term contract before the '08 season started.

[BrewCrewForever]

Sheets was off the charts in that game vs the Padres in September 2008. An awesome performance. I think I remember that as much as I do his 18 K game.

[jerichoholicninja]

His perfect game against the Angels that the Crew lost in 14 innings or so was the best pitching performance I've ever seen. I know he gave up a homerun to Vlad but I don't consider that to have actually happened since the ball was about 1 inch off the ground when he hit it.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm delighted, both that Benny hasn't gone to one of the hated top 5, and that it puts to rest all the "we should sign Sheets" talk here at BF.net.

Well, the Brewers should have signed Sheets. Obviously, something went down behind the scenes where at least one of the parties hated the other at the end. Hopefully now he's signed somewhere the truth comes out.

 

Ask yourself, who would you rather have for the coming season? Doug Davis and LaTroy Hawkins, or Sheets?

More like Davis, Hawkins and Counsell, or Sheets?

 

Sheets will be on the DL for sure at some point in 2010.

I made my original comparison when the number being thrown around was $8 million. That said, I'd still probably bite for $10 million.

[RockCoCougars]

Comparing Sheets to Davis/Hawkins/whomever is irrelevant at this point since Sheets did not want to come back to Milwaukee. I think he still is mad that Melvin didn't commit financial suicide for the team by offering Sheets a long term contract before the '08 season started.

Can you commit suicide twice? Melvin "committed financial suicide' on

December 24, 2006 when he signed Suppan. As I predicted that day, the

end result has been losing Sheets (or any financial flexibility,

hindering the team during the small window of opportunity it has to

contend). I don't blame Sheets a bit for being upset. How would you

feel at your job if you were among the best at what you do, someone

incompetent is brought in at more money, they continue their

incompetence working next to you, and your boss won't discuss giving

you a raise? Say what you want about the injuries, I'll take Sheets'

2008 season ahead of Suppan's entire body of work with the team. In

the end, this is Melvin's fault, and he's going to look really bad if

(as I'm predicting now) Sheets bounces back and has a good season.

[BREWCREW5]

In the end, this is Melvin's fault, and he's going to look really bad if (as I'm predicting now) Sheets bounces back and has a good season.

So will all of the other GM's in baseball who didnt sign him. I understand that you think Sheets is a good player and that he is going to have a great year. But, you act like Sheets was wanting to come back to Milwaukee and play.

If the Brewers offered 10 million and so did the A's, he would have signed with the A's.

 

In the end, Melvin's going to look really good if (as I'm predicting now) Sheets gets injured again and has a bad year.

 

[monty57]

As I predicted that day, the end result has been losing Sheets

 

But that contract would have included paying Sheets market value (probably in the $15MM+ range) to sit out last year, and we'd owe him $15MM+ this year and for several more years for whatever he can provide. Remember that he wouldn't have had nearly the incentive to get in shape to start this season if he was already guaranteed $15MM+ instead of trying to sign a new contract.

 

Even if Suppan wasn't signed, I doubt that Melvin would've offered Sheets the deal he would have been asking for. This was prior to the economy falling, so player salaries were still on the rise. The $15MM figure I mentioned above is probably way low for what Sheets would've wanted, and I'm sure he wanted a lot of years. For a player that's never injured (aka Sabathia), it may be worth breaking the bank. For a player who hasn't had an injury-free season in years, it's way too risky.

 

Now, if Sheets was asking for a Suppan-esque 4 year / $40MM contract, Sheets would be on the team today, but why would he ever have settled for that? His injury in 2008, which cost him the entire 2009 season, shows why signing someone with an injury history like Ben Sheets has had to a long-term, big money deal does not generally work out well for small- to mid-market teams.

[sheethead]

I'll take Sheets' 2008 season ahead of Suppan's entire body of work with the team.

 

Heck, I would take Sheets' 2009 season ahead of Suppan's entire body of work.

[Thurston Fluff]

Say what you want about the injuries, I'll take Sheets' 2008 season ahead of Suppan's entire body of work with the team.

 

Would you take Sheets 2009 body of work for 15ish million over Suppan's body of work? Had Sheets signed when he wanted to for what he could have commanded means Suppan's contract would be surpassed by year three. One of which would have produced nothing but a rehab bill. There is no guarantee going forward that there won't be another lost season as well. One more half season of DL time which is possible if not likely the first season coming back and Sheets contract would have made Suppan's look like a steal for us. That is if we assume Sheets is the same pitcher he was. If he has any amount of decline at all it is even worse.

I loved Sheets but to have given him a contract then would have been a severe blow to the team for years to come.

[Tbadder]

I love this signing because it shows how much the marketplace hates itself and will work against its own interests. No way Ben pitches healthy the whole season. He's gonna lose velocity on top of whatever ails him. Sure it'll be mitigated some by playing in the AL West and in a pitcher's park, but you can only hide for so long. Here's a consistently injured player who pulls down 10mil when the rest of the market says 5 to 7 mil will do ya (based on other signings this year). It goes to show how irrational the marketplace can be. Now, I suppose you can rationalize it--the marketplace is good at that too, but when he goes down even that rationalization will ring hollow. In a case like this the marketplace could have offerred and Sheets would've accepted 5 mil with 7 mil in incentives. And that's the other thng. The marketplace is subject to the whims of even a single person (read Oakland GM) who can then skew other signings. Bedard has got to be absolutely laughing right now. Hopefully, the market will adjust itself and slap down any notions that Bedard might have.

[Invader3K]

I hate how people look at the Suppan signing in a vacuum, and use that as a reason that Sheets isn't on the team at this point. Maybe if Sheets hadn't gotten hurt in both '05 and 06, the Brewers wouldn't have felt the need to sign Suppan in the first place. If Sheets was mad about Suppan making more money, he should look in the mirror to see who is partly to blame for that one. Yes, in retrospect, it would be nice if the Brewers had never signed Suppan, but at the time it was a needed move.

[TheCrew]

Without a doubt it would be Davis and Hawkins - they are also cheaper.

I don't agree at all... there's way better value in Sheets if he's truly healthy. I would rather have 2 pitchers around the level of Gallardo on the staff thant 1 sarting pitcher who always pitches with runners on base, who doesn't approach 90 mph on his fastball, and is in his mid 30s plus paying premium dollar for a friggen reliever.

 

I realize WAR is imperfect, so please get past how it's calculated and look at what I'm trying to say.... WAR illustrates my point perfectly in this case. In every season Sheets has posted over 160 IP he's had a WAR greater than 3.7. Davis hasn't had a WAR above 2.4 since 2006 with the Brewers (2.8), he peaked at a 4.5 in 2004 and has been on a slow steady decline ever since. Hawkins hasn't had a WAR over 1.0 since 2004 because once again there just isn't tremendous value in relief pitching, they pitch too few innings.

 

Sheets worst WAR min 160 IP... 3.7

 

Hawkins last season above a 1, 2004 with a.... 1.2 (.3 last season)

 

Doug Davis maximum WAR since leaving the Crew.... 2.4 (1.7 last season)

 

I might stink at math, but it would appear to me that Hawkins/Davis would have to find the fountain of youth to equal Sheets' value if he manages to get 160 IP.... 3.6 combined WAR best case vs 3.7 worst case. The wildcard here is that no one really can say with any certainty how well Sheets will pitch coming off surgery. However, if Ben is healthy he's at least a 3 WAR pitcher, in that I have no doubt and even if Hawkins bounces back to another .8 (as he's done in the past, not all that far fetched for a reliever) Davis would also have to pitch a full win better than last season for them to be even be close to outpeforming Sheets' approximate value.

Well I did say it's a different story if he is healthy in my original reply - your banking on Sheets pitching a large number of innings, he's hit 160+ innings 1 time in the past 4 years......... health is, and always has been, the issue with Sheets. Heck, if the guy didn't break downand miss significant time in 2 of his last 3 seasons in Milwaukee plus the end of the season in the 3rd, he probably would have been locked up here long term and the relationship would have never soured...... but that is just my speculation.

 

I wish the guy well and enjoyed watching him pitch in Milwaukee - but because of health issues, it would have been foolish for the brewers to throw that much money at him and it's because of his health issues, not talent, that I feel Davis/Hawkins are without a doubt the better value.

[RockCoCougars]

I hate how people look at the Suppan signing in a vacuum, and use that as a reason that Sheets isn't on the team at this point. Maybe if Sheets hadn't gotten hurt in both '05 and 06, the Brewers wouldn't have felt the need to sign Suppan in the first place. If Sheets was mad about Suppan making more money, he should look in the mirror to see who is partly to blame for that one. Yes, in retrospect, it would be nice if the Brewers had never signed Suppan, but at the time it was a needed move.

Why should Sheets look in the mirror? How can he be blamed for having an inner ear disturbance and another freak injury? When healthy, which was most of the time, he was one of the 10 best starters in baseball. For some reason, people love to pile on Sheets because of these injuries, but I've had a gut feeling for a while that this is going to turn out like the Paul Molitor "he's just a DH" situation. Remember, Molitor was "hurt all the time" too. It's not like Sheets is coming off a torn rotator cuff or TJ surgery either.

 

Regarding Suppan, why was it a needed move to sign a low upside #4 ish starter to a four year contract paying 8 figures per? Especially if he's coming off his best stretch of pitching ever. I would say that most people in baseball thought giving Suppan that contract was a big reach. Going further, there would have been no pressing need for a middling starter anyway if Melvin hadn't have traded Davis for a fat and lazy catcher. Davis could have been the "innings eater" that they supposedly needed for a lot cheaper than Suppan. Instead, they ended up with a year of a catcher who went for three months without throwing a base stealer out and one year of Guillermo Mota.

 

At some point, Melvin has to be accountable for these moves.

[Pointer1VB]

His perfect game against the Angels that the Crew lost in 14 innings or so was the best pitching performance I've ever seen. I know he gave up a homerun to Vlad but I don't consider that to have actually happened since the ball was about 1 inch off the ground when he hit it.

Ah, you got a bit of that wrong...

 

http://articles.latimes.c...n/10/sports/sp-angfolo10

 

Vlad just broke up the no hitter in the 7th by hitting a ball that was in the dirt into shallow left. Sheets maintained a shutout through nine, and the Brewers won in the 17th.

[Pointer1VB]

http://www.baseball-refer...s/ANA/ANA200406080.shtml

 

Box Score

[TheCrew07]

I hate how people look at the Suppan signing in a vacuum, and use that as a reason that Sheets isn't on the team at this point. Maybe if Sheets hadn't gotten hurt in both '05 and 06, the Brewers wouldn't have felt the need to sign Suppan in the first place. If Sheets was mad about Suppan making more money, he should look in the mirror to see who is partly to blame for that one. Yes, in retrospect, it would be nice if the Brewers had never signed Suppan, but at the time it was a needed move.

I hate how people go to the "he's basically league average" card when defending the Suppan signing. How many teams are spending the most money on their worst pitcher? It's a horrible plan economically and I think it's a horrible way to build a pitching for all of the reasons I've previously posted. The Brewers have way too much money tied into the bullpen and averagish starting pitching. I have no problem with DM spending money, but quit maxing out the payroll just to be average.

 

There is very realistic chance of the same thing happening with Wolf by the end of his contract, he very well could be our least talented and most expensive starting pitcher. I think that pattern stinks and will continue to rage against it until I change my ideas on team building, which seems very unlikely.

[Thurston Fluff]

How many teams are spending the most money on their worst pitcher?

 

Which is exactly what we would have done last season if Sheets got a multi year deal like he wanted. We would have paid a guy 10-15 million to go through rehab and then to spend the next one building up to his previous form.

[RockCoCougars]

I hate how people go to the "he's basically league average" card when defending the Suppan signing. How many teams are spending the most money on their worst pitcher? It's a horrible plan economically and I think it's a horrible way to build a pitching for all of the reasons I've previously posted. The Brewers have way too much money tied into the bullpen and averagish starting pitching. I have no problem with DM spending money, but quit maxing out the payroll just to be average.

 

There is very realistic chance of the same thing happening with Wolf by the end of his contract, he very well could be our least talented and most expensive starting pitcher. I think that pattern stinks and will continue to rage against it until I change my ideas on team building, which seems very unlikely.

Exactly. There was no reason to give Suppan that contract. Melvin created the hole in the rotation himself when he traded Davis. Thank god the other guy Melvin targeted- Dave Roberts, decided to sign with San Francisco. I shudder to think of what would have happened if they'd have given him $25-$30 million.

 

I'll withhold judgment on Wolf. I think they gave him about $5-10 million too much money though (over the 3 years of the contract), and 3 years is probably a year too long. That said, it would be tough to argue the fact that Melvin jumped the gun on signing him. No way would Wolf have gotten this kind of contract had the Brewers not signed him. Heck, he may have only gotten a one year deal in this market.

[RockCoCougars]

How many teams are spending the most money on their worst pitcher?

 

Which is exactly what we would have done last season if Sheets got a multi year deal like he wanted. We would have paid a guy 10-15 million to go through rehab and then to spend the next one building up to his previous form.

It's easy to Monday morning quarterback an injury. I kind of compare it to 20 years ago when Higuera was re signed, and went down with the injury soon after. I can't call that a bad signing. Going further, a team like the Brewers needs to pull out all the stops to keep their own stars, because they aren't getting them from another team. All they will get is slightly above average players like Wolf who have to be convinced to come to the Brewers in the form of extra cash.

 

By the way, in my view, Sheets could have thrown nary a pitch last season and would have hurt the team less than Suppan pitching to his 'career norms' after throwing out his worst 6 starts.

[Invader3K]

I hate how people go to the "he's basically league average" card when defending the Suppan signing. How many teams are spending the most money on their worst pitcher? It's a horrible plan economically and I think it's a horrible way to build a pitching for all of the reasons I've previously posted....

There is very realistic chance of the same thing happening with Wolf by the end of his contract, he very well could be our least talented and most expensive starting pitcher. I think that pattern stinks and will continue to rage against it until I change my ideas on team building, which seems very unlikely.

Where did I bring up anything about Suppan being "basically league average?" You're still ignoring that one of the main reasons Suppan was signed was due to the injuries to Sheets, Ohka, and others. They DID need an "innings eater," and unfortunately the reality is that Suppan was the best available at the time. They had to overspend to fill a need after a disappointing '06 season that was caused by lack of starting pitching.

 

I wish people would quit comparing Wolf to Suppan. They are completely different pitchers, and people more articulate than myself have written articles outlining why that is the case.