Doug Davis returning to Milwaukee, 1 yr. $5.25 with mutual option

[Thurston Fluff]

Boy, there's an awful lot of enthusiasm for a guy who's gone 4 straight seasons with a WHIP of at least 1.5. I don't hate the move as the price wasn't steep, but I would have preferred either Garland or Washburn. Washburn has never had a WHIP over 1.5 and Garland has just once.

 

For the most part WHIP is a tried and true predictive stat but using traditional metrics to determine the value of a guy who has defied those very same metrics his entire career is more than likely going to get you the wrong answer again.

[1992casey]

For the most part WHIP is a tried and true predictive stat...

 

I disagree with that. I think it's one of those things that you eyeball and maybe come close. The problem with WHIP is that it completely ignores total bases. A single, a walk, and a home run count the same. To me, if you're going to use WHIP, you should be giving it a fair amount of breathing room along with supplementing it with other stats.

[And That]

I agree with Casey. WHIP means more to me at the extremes.

 

WHIPs between say 1.1-1.6 seem pretty nebulous to me. If you tell me a guy has a 1.25 WHIP or a 1.43 WHIP, that doesn't mean much unless it has context with other information. Even then, it's more of a secondary than primary stat.

 

Now if you tell me a guy has a 0.8 WHIP or a 2.0 WHIP (and a decent sample of innings), I pretty much know what kind of pitcher he is.

 

Davis has survived with a high WHIP, and has had success with a high WHIP. There's probably some detailed reason as to why this is, but in just looking at his statistical record, I'm confident that he'll continue to both have a higher than is normally viewed as good WHIP and decent results.

[Oldcity]

Stevo, it appears you are seriously trying to find anything/everything wrong with this deal. Do you honestly not think the crew is better than it was before the DD signing?

 

I also guarantee you that once the season starts, Mark A will say, as he always does, that there is money there at the deadline to add an impact player if we need one and are going for it.

 

Come on bro, seriously. Just enjoy it.

 

I didn't mean to imply I don't think Davis isn't an improvement over Suppan. The point I'm trying to make was the Brewers' rotation was gawdawful last season, and in my eyes it hasn't been improved enough. Melvin had a very tall task in front of him, and from here it sure looks like he's fallen short. The rotation is upgraded, but not enough to make up for the drop-off in offense. The offense won't be nearly as good. Look at positions likely to regress just because of how well they produced last year: LF, 1B, 2B. There's likely to be some decline there. Then there's a huge offensive downgrade from Cameron to Gomez. Really, the only positions where it's safe to expect a little improvement are catcher and RF. To make up for the offensive drop, they needed to add more to the rotation than Wolf and Davis. Sure, the rotation will be better next year, but my point is that it still won't be enough. EDIT: Darn it all, I can never get paragraph spacing on my mac for some reason. Sorry for the jumbled mess.

[1992casey]

Stevo, are you using Safari? Either way, if you PM me or post a description of your problems in Issues, I can offer some options. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

I don't see a good reason to expect LF or 1B to regress to any significant amount. 2B will if Weeks doesn't stay healthy and obviously CF is the big drop. I think the pitching will be more improved than the offense regresses though. Part of that just because the pitching would have improved significantly if we had just thrown the same guys out, add in the new players to the mix and I think it is pretty major.

[BREWCREW5]

By the end of the season, Doug Melvin will be getting recognized by national writers for overhauling the pitching and putting the Brewers in a spot to be successful.

 

Correct, I just wrote that. Mark it 8 dude.

[thebruce44]

SS and C could experience offensive upgrades as well. I think our offense will be fine and our pitching has improved dramatically...mostly from a depth perspective if nothing else.

 

To the poster who thinks we will trade Parra now in SP, I disagree. I think our rotation is now 6-7 deep and that is needed if we are going to contend for the post season.

[RobDeer 45]

BrewCrew5 - Love it! The dude abides....man.

 

I don't see much changing in the offense except CF and maybe 3rd. I'm nervouse about weeks but hopefully he comes through.

 

Rotation is def better and the pen should be just as solid.

 

Hope it makes fora good year!

[Milltownhooker]

if /when Weeks goes down McGee slides to 2nd.

[brewtank34]

with a healthy McGahee, 3B should be better than last year. Hardy was a joke last year. A full year of Escobar should produce just as many runs due to his speed. If Ricky is healthy, watch out! Prince and Braunny have shown the ability to produce consistently, and I don't see any reason to think they wont' continue producing this year. CF....that's going to be the big question. What's to say that Gomez won't be better than Cameron? I say this because of the amount of K's Cameron had in situations with RISP. He was flat out horrid last year with RISP. One can argue that the loss of K's in that slot may produce more runs/opportunities for bigger innings than what Cameron was able to produce. Hart has nowhere to go but up...I guess he could remain stable, sooo I take that back. Hart is better than what he produced last year, so that's why I believe he has nowhere to go but up. Catcher will be an offensive improvement.

I think it all depends on how Macha devises the line-up. I think you need to protect Rickie in front of either Braun in the 2 slot or in front of McGahee in the 5 slot. The rest will take care of itself.

 

The pitching rotation, yes...not the most sexy in the NL, but it will allow an offense than will no doubt produce a lot of runs to win us games. Do you begin the year with Wolf pitching in the 1 slot so you can break up the righties and leftlies? Wolf, Yo, Davis, Bush/Suppan, Parra

[craigharmann]

Catcher will be an offensive improvement.

Kendall was offensive. Anyone but him would be an offensive improvement.

[logan82]

We are going to need Gallardo, Wolf, Davis, Bush, Parra, Suppan, and Narveson all by the end of the season to start games for us. Only 2 teams used fewer than 9 pitchers to start games in 2009. The Rays(7) and the Braves(8). The majority of teams used between 9 and 12 starters because of trades, ineffectiveness and injury. The Padres used 15 different pitchers to start games in 2009.

[wishicouldhit]

Just saw the tweet. A little disappointed that we didn't sign Bedard or Sheets, but I guess Davis is reliable. With the increase in length of games, I'm guessing the signing will improve the beer sales at miller park as well!

 

Besides of knocking Suppan out of the rotation, this is the highlight of the signing

[monty57]

Just did a real quick look at the starting rotation, using CHONE projections. Teams usually get something like 940 innings from their starters, so I've set Suppan's IP to take up the balance:

 

	IP	ERA
Gallardo	145	3.66
Wolf	164	4.23
Davis	170	4.50
Bush	160	4.78
Parra	170	4.81
Suppan	131	5.43
	940	4.56

Still below average but a HUGE projected upgrade over the 5.43 ERA the starters had last year. That's something like 8 wins better. Please don't just add 8 wins to last year's record, though. It doesn't work like that.

 

I'm sure some of you are balking at Yo's and possibly Wolf's IP projection. If we set Yo's innings to 200 and Wolf's to 190 (and lower Suppan's accordingly) we get a team ERA of 4.39. Pitcher health plays a huge role here and if the most difficult to project.

Thanks for that, Russ. Remembering that signing a good pitcher replaces the worst pitcher in the rotation, I now think that our rotation is at least good enough to keep us in the playoff hunt. The last line of the quote is important, as we now have added depth for the injuries that are bound to happen. The loser of the Parra/Bush/Suppan tryout for the 4 & 5 spots will still get plenty of starts this season filling in for injuries as our 6th starter.

 

Then, Narveson and a hopefully recovered Capuano can fight for the 7th and 8th starter spots, Burns is still there if needed for a spot start, it will be interesting to see where Jones ends up, and it's likely we'll sign Mulder who hopefully could be able to step in late in the season. Plus, all of our young starters will be a year closer to being Major League ready. It's much more reasonable to believe that someone could make the jump this year from AA to the Majors than it was last year from A to the Majors. Maybe Capuano and Mulder won't be able to contribute to the team this year, but I still think we should have more pitching depth than we have since the last time Davis pitched as a Brewer.

 

Plus, the option on the contract means that we can have Davis in 2011 as well, when we will lose Suppan and Bush, allowing us to only need to bring up one of our youngsters rather than having two rookies in the Opening Day rotation, but we won't be on the hook for him if he gets injured or seriously regresses. All in all, I'm very happy with this signing.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't see a major drop in offense if any. I see slight upgrades at 3 positions, C, SS and 3B. Zaun's no world beater but he should outperform Kendall. Though he'll likely start in AAA, by midseason I see Lucroy taking ABs away from Zaun. My views on Escobar are well documented. I think he'll give them more consistent offense certainly than Hardy did in 09 and I think a full year from McGehee at 3B will be better than 1/3 of a year from Hall, and the mix and match that followed. The bench right now is a question mark. It's hard to expect anything close to another year like 09 from Counsell.

 

The potential for a noticeable dropoff is in CF. But many have overestated Cameron's offensive contributions. For a middle of the order hitter with power, he wasn't a big run producer. Gomez looks pretty feeble on paper admittedly, but I don't think they'll stick with him come heck or high water. Gerut and the talent at the upper levels could push him.

 

The rotation would appear to be improved, but lets see. I definitely expect Wolf to be an upgrade over Looper. Davis is Davis. Somehow he survives despite baserunners all over the place, but really he's no better than a 4th starter in a good rotation. Either Bush or Parra has to be better for them to have any chance though. I'm not holding my breath. I'd be willing to bet that a prospect emerges this year from AA or lower and sees time in the rotation when all is said and done.

 

The bullpen looks strong and deep right now and if Hoffman has another year in him, I think it's the class of the division. Even if one or two guys regress a little, I think it's possible for a guy like Villanueva to bounce back and be more consistent. More than anyone, he might have suffered from overuse and changing roles. Vargas is the wild card. He sure looked comfortable in a late inning role last year. Plus there's arms that will be at AAA that might mix in at some point. The bullpen played a huge role in the early season success last year. With a little help from the starters, it could carry them further this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

But many have overestated Cameron's offensive contributions

 

It's the other way around. You continue to drastically undervalue his offense.

 

 

I see slight upgrades at 3 positions, C, SS and 3B.

 

How is 3B upgraded? McGehee turned in a career-type season, and we have the same personnel. Are you meaning that you think Gamel is going to take a step forward in 2010 & outproduce McGehee's 2009?

[trwi7]

I don't see a major drop in offense if any. I see slight upgrades at 3 positions, C, SS and 3B. Zaun's no world beater but he should outperform Kendall.

I see downgrades at 2B, CF and maybe 1B and LF as well. Braun and Fielder were great last year, they'll be great again this year, but I'm not sure they'll be as great.

 

For reference, here's what each position posted last year.

 

C - .242/.331/.317/.648

1B - .299/.412/.602/1.014

2B - .303/.377/.474/.851

SS - .247/.306/.355/.661

3B - .267/.330/.439/.769

LF - .309/.373/.530/.903

CF - .241/.329/.432/.761

RF - .270/.340/.425/.765

[trwi7]

How is 3B upgraded? McGehee turned in a career-type season, and we have the same personnel.

Hall had 214 at bats of a .606 OPS.

[strawbossisevil]

Remember TooLiveBrew that Bill Hall entered the season as our 3B. McGehee did not play the whole season there. In fact, he only played at 3b in 71 games last season, or less than half of the season. Bill Hall played 3b in 69 of the games last season, and we all know how well he did out there.

 

A full season of McGehee or McGehee/Gamel should be capable of equaling the production of McGehee/Hall.

[Trowekamp]

I don't see a good reason to expect LF or 1B to regress to any significant amount. 2B will if Weeks doesn't stay healthy and obviously CF is the big drop. I think the pitching will be more improved than the offense regresses though. Part of that just because the pitching would have improved significantly if we had just thrown the same guys out, add in the new players to the mix and I think it is pretty major.

I actually am expecting even better numbers for Braun and Fielder for 2 reasons:

 

- I think the light went on for Fielder last year with his patience and he is playing for a huge contract as if he needed more motivation. That and the 5 spot should be better and he should have more people on in front of him so I could see him getting more hittable pitches.

- This may be sacriligous (sp?) to some fans but to me Braun will keep acending like Pujols did.. I just see him getting better barring injury..... If he gains the patience Fielder developed last year I could see him hitting .350 with 40 home runs..

 

So yes I have drank the Braun koolaid..

[endaround]

And Counsell had 459 PAs at .285/.357/.408 which isn't going to be repeated. McGehee got 394 PAs, or about 2/3 of a seasons worth, not half a season.

[strawbossisevil]

Right, but not all of those were at 3b, end. Only 240 of his ABs took place as a 3rd baseman. His other ABs were at 2nd, 1st, RF, DH, and Pinch Hitting.

[Ennder]

I think McGehee/Gamel can probably match a .769 OPS on the year. If they don't match it I think they can come pretty darn close at least.

[trwi7]

And Counsell had 459 PAs at .285/.357/.408

Counsell is interesting because he drastically changed his batting stance so I could still see him being a .265/.340/.375 player or something like that. I don't think he's going to go down to Jason Kendall levels in the power department.

 

I think Gerut will improve. .243 BABIP last year, way short of his career .280 mark. Also remember that Gerut, Catalanotto, Nelson and Duffy combined for 358 at bats and hit a combined .229/.301/.330/.631.