Doug Davis returning to Milwaukee, 1 yr. $5.25 with mutual option

[Trowekamp]

Just did a real quick look at the starting rotation, using CHONE projections. Teams usually get something like 940 innings from their starters, so I've set Suppan's IP to take up the balance:

 

	IP	ERA
Gallardo	145	3.66
Wolf	164	4.23
Davis	170	4.50
Bush	160	4.78
Parra	170	4.81
Suppan	131	5.43
	940	4.56

Still below average but a HUGE projected upgrade over the 5.43 ERA the starters had last year. That's something like 8 wins better. Please don't just add 8 wins to last year's record, though. It doesn't work like that.

 

I'm sure some of you are balking at Yo's and possibly Wolf's IP projection. If we set Yo's innings to 200 and Wolf's to 190 (and lower Suppan's accordingly) we get a team ERA of 4.39. Pitcher health plays a huge role here and if the most difficult to project.

 

What I like about this is I can easily see better ERA from Gallardo and Parra and more innings as you mentioned from Yo, Wolf, and possibly Davis.. so to me it looks like more upside potential then downside risk on those projects and they already show a big improvement. When you factor in that SS/C/3B should be slightly improved it is really up to Weeks to stay healthy and Hart to get his head on straight to give them a chance..

[Trowekamp]

The other thing when you talk depth is don't you feel comfortable with the possibility of Mulder or Cappy being a fill in then Mike Burns?

[Trowekamp]

Also the following are pitching for 2010 contracts basically:

 

Suppan

Bush

Parra

Davis

 

That will hopefully provide a motivation not to mention if the way to clean house on these next year it frees up $20+ million in salary not to mention Hall's salary.

[Ennder]

Parra has been very good in the last 2 Spring Trainings so if he follows the recent trend, he'll be in our opening day rotation.

I sure hope that is how it works out. I'd rather have Parra pitch his way out of his rotation than have to try to earn the job back out of the bullpen.

[Oldcity]

I really have to say I'm surprised by all the positive reaction. Davis hasn't been good since leaving Milwaukee. He was below average last year. His k/bb has been below 2 each of the four years. Finding someone who simply isn't as bad as Suppan isn't enough. They needed someone better than Doug Davis.

[silversurferr]

I am not a Davis fan. However, he will help the rotation. Everyone concedes that Wolf is better than Looper. And remember that Gallardo will improve, Parra will improve (can't pitch worse), and Bush should be healthy and solid. Reminds me of the '82 staff. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Trowekamp]

I really have to say I'm surprised by all the positive reaction. Davis hasn't been good since leaving Milwaukee. He was below average last year. His k/bb has been below 2 each of the four years. Finding someone who simply isn't as bad as Suppan isn't enough. They needed someone better than Doug Davis.

 

I am not excited about bringing back Davis as you mention the best we can hope for is an average starter but compared to how horrible Suppan was that is something to be excited about not to mention the Wolf should be better than Looper and Bush and Parra really can't do worse than last year and there is reason for optimism I believe..

[Invader3K]

I really have to say I'm surprised by all the positive reaction. Davis hasn't been good since leaving Milwaukee. He was below average last year. His k/bb has been below 2 each of the four years. Finding someone who simply isn't as bad as Suppan isn't enough. They needed someone better than Doug Davis.

He had a 4.12 ERA last year. That would have helped the Brewers a ton this past season. It's been repeatedly discussed that Davis is some kind of "freak of nature" when it comes to his WHIP being high compared to the results he delivers. He'll walk guys, but he doesn't give up homers either.

 

Ultimately the hope in the rotation relies in Parra living up to his hype and potential, and Gallardo improving incrementally. If we're basing our playoff expectations on a serviceable lefty making about $5 million in 2010, then we're really in trouble.

[brewtank34]

Excellent signing by Melvin. Davis at right around $5M could wind up being a steal.

 

So true. This is exactly a deal that if it wasn't made by the Crew, so many of us on here would have come on and posted...."Oh, just another guy that we could have gotten for a reasonable price." But this time, DM pulled the trigger.

 

In a year with only one good free agent arm (Lacky), I think DM did a pretty good job in bolstering our starting rotation. I would have personally gone for Garland so we could have had another righty in the rotation, but I'm not going to complain one bit with DD. Thank you Wolf for deferring your contract so that Melvin could add to the club. Way to be a team player!!!!

 

I would be happy to see some more moves by Melvin (just for my own selfish desires to continuously come on this forum to see if any moves were made....me loves me the hot stove league!!!). http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[Invader3K]

I suspect Melvin is essentially done this off-season. Maybe some sort of trade could happen yet, but I think it will be relatively minor one. I think any extra dollars he has to spend (if any at all), will be kept in his back pocket for a mid-season trade.

[rluzinski]

They needed someone better than Doug Davis.

 

If you wanted them to buy a $300,000 house when they only had $150,000, you were going to be disappointed no matter what. What the Brewers did do was get a $200,000 house for their $150,000. They really needed a house, so I can't be too upset.

[CWSOmaha]

I'm going to start saving my money for playoff tickets!!

[PeaveyFury]

Davis hasn't been good since leaving Milwaukee.

 

Actually, all three of his seasons in Arizona were much better than his last season in Milwaukee, and it really wasn't even close. His k/bb has been out of whack for a long time, and it has worked just fine for him. Sure, it could catch up to him eventually, but that's the beauty of a one year deal. If it doesn't work out, no big commitment.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not thrilled with Davis, as I'd have preferred Sheets, Garland, and even possibly Washburn. That being said, anything that will bump Suppan from the rotation has to be considered a good thing. Now if the team can pick up a couple of more 'AAAA' starters who have some major league experience (if there are any left) that are willing to go to Nashville, we don't have to hear the 'Suppan is our best option' argument.

[LouisEly]

Why are people so excited about having more lefties? Don't righties tend to hit lefties better and aren't their more righties than lefty hitters in the league? I know I for one love it when the Brewers face a LH pitcher, I can' t imagine the heavy RH Cub lineup and the Cardinals with Pujols and Holliday are too worried about a LH pitcher, especially one who walks as many guys as Davis.

Beat me to it. Pujols, Holliday, Ludwick, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Soriano, Carlos Lee, Pence, Philips, Rolen... very RH-heavy division with an unbalanced schedule. I'd rather have Piniero than Wolf simply because he is a righty.

 

One year deal for Davis? Can't argue with that. Wolf + Davis >>>>> Suppan + Looper. We could be talking about 50-60 fewer earned runs given up in their starts.

[brewtank34]

Is there anything to say about the Crew's defense when he was last a Brewer? Wasn't our defense one of the worst in the league during the DD years?

I liked our defense last year and I like our defense going into this year. Gomez and Escobar up the middle will be good for davis. Hopefully Escobar and Weeks will learn each other's rythm's quickly so that they can get DD and the other SP's out of a lot of jams.

[bobskube]

I will now go into season thinking the Brewers have a chance. I doubt they win, but they have a chance. I have them as 81-84 win team now and with a few breaks and a couple of career years...who knows? It happens every year with a team or two.

[homer]

I	Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	BAbip	tOPS+
	vs RHB as LH	286	5607	4874	582	1304	242	31	128	7	6	610	922	1.51	.268	.349	.409	.758	1992	136	18	74	31	21	.305	98
	vs LHB as LH	266	1575	1399	201	395	85	10	44	0	1	126	287	2.28	.282	.348	.452	.800	632	30	21	19	10	5	.326	108

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/20/2010.

Davis' splits for his career against LH and RH hitters. Randy Wolf's are below:

I	Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	BAbip	tOPS+
	vs RHB as LH	279	5840	5185	643	1347	312	19	176	4	0	494	1027	2.08	.260	.329	.429	.759	2225	111	62	64	35	26	.292	104
	vs LHB as LH	242	1325	1178	125	261	63	6	36	2	0	111	360	3.24	.222	.293	.377	.669	444	19	11	16	9	4	.284	81

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/20/2010.

[trwi7]

Is there anything to say about the Crew's defense when he was last a Brewer? Wasn't our defense one of the worst in the league during the DD years?

2003 the team UZR was -70.8, worst in the majors.

 

2004 the team UZR was -15.4, 21st in the majors.

 

2005 the team UZR was -0.4, 19th in the majors.

 

2006 the team UZR was 0.6, 16th in the majors.

[Ennder]

Davis has a career ERA of 4.31, career FIP of 4.41, career xFIP of 4.43 and a career WHIP of 1.49. He is just sort of an odd guy who can get away with the walks even without having great K totals. I'd say his 4.25ish ERA the past 3 years are probably about what you should expect this year. That is a slightly above average starter.

 

Wolf is also probably a slightly above average starter. So now we have one good starter and 2 above average ones instead of 1 good starter and 4 below average ones, which can only help.

[brewtank34]

Thanks for the stats trwi7. I'm guessing with a better defense during his time with the Crew, his ERA would be a bit lower....that's all speculation though, but I'm just saying. Our defense is way better than it was back then and I feel that with competent pitchers in our rotation, our defense is going to help our pitchers keep us in games.

[sheetswannabe]

Anyone know what Arizona was ranked in defense last year compared to the Crew? That would be interesting to see, I would check but I am on my busted phone.

[Tbadder]

They're better than yesterday, but not much better than the end of last year. Not quite a contender. I'd say .500. If that gets us the playoffs cool. But he's not a difference maker, I gotta agree with Stevo on that. I also agree with whoever said this team is starting to skew boring. Do I really want to pay good money for the likes of Gomez, Davis, Suppan, Wolf, etc.? On the other hand there something to be said for cheap and short--and that is--here comes more cheap and short in the future.

[Mr QL]

I like Doug and glad to have him back. I don't think we were doing much better than him.

[trwi7]

Anyone know what Arizona was ranked in defense last year compared to the Crew? That would be interesting to see, I would check but I am on my busted phone.

Arizona had a 21.6 UZR, the Brewers had a 9.9 UZR.

 

In 2008 Arizona was terrible, like -26 or something like that.