Brewers plans for 2011 and after

[PrinceFielderx1]

What kind of contract is Prince Fielder likely to get? One like Matt Holliday (7/120MM) or Mark Teixieira (8/180MM)?

[logan82]

I would rather pay Prince than pay 2-3 average guys $3-5m a year to be league average when there are players in the farm system that can do just about as good for league minimum.

 

Well sure Fielder for under $15M a year would probably be ok. How likely is he to take a deal like that though?

[TooLiveBrew]

Even still, I think getting Fielder at ~$20M AAV is a better use of money than overpaying mediocre FAs to come in & be average. I wonder if a deal like 4 yrs./$85M would work for both sides. For the Brewers, you theoretically avoid his 'decline' years... for Prince, he gets paid big-time, with enough gas left in the tank to secure another monster FA contract.

[logan82]

I think we have seen over the past couple years $10M can buy a pretty decent player.

[nate82]

I think we have seen over the past couple years $10M can buy a pretty decent player.

If they are on the market and willing to come to Milwaukee. There are more than enough players in the farm system that project to be either average or just below average. Lawrie and others will be under control and at a very low cost. It would make sense to have Prince and Braun with those low cost players than having Braun and a bunch of average players. Filling holes is all fine and dandy but you are not really making the team better other than filling holes. When one hole gets filled another one shows up. You will be constantly filling holes and the FA players you are picking could be the next Suppan or Hammonds. I would rather give Prince a big contract than giving those big contracts to the Suppans and Hammonds.

 

Players that will be filling holes for the Brewers in 2012: Cain, Schafer, Gindl, Lawrie (possibly), and others. There is even some good players in the system that could be good or great role players in Farris and Wheeler. There is also Salome and Lucroy who will be on the team in 2012. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Brewers rotation consist mainly of the younger players in the farm system right now. That maybe good or that maybe bad but I would rather take that risk with the farm system than going out and overpaying for FA pitchers. Other than trading for a pitcher I don't see any other way for the Brewers to get the pitching help. The offense is what is going to carry this team lets see how far Braun and Prince can carry this team over the next 4-6 years. I just don't see any reason why the Brewers should be spending money on older FA when they can sign a youngish player they already have.

[igor67]

A good farm system can find solid contributors on a fairly regular basis. It's finding the good prospects that turn into the truly elite players, that I suspect is luck as much as shrewd talent evaluation. And you need some of those guys to have a playoff team. Now you don't want to push it to the extreme where you have locked up almost all of your payroll on 2 guys, and you can only have minimum salary players everywhere else.

[rluzinski]

I think there's little doubt the Brewers will make an offer to Prince consistent to his worth to the Brewers. The problem is that he's worth more to a larger market team, even after the player compensation. If the Brewers want to pay Prince what he's worth to the Red Sox, I think that's a terrible strategy.

Why? Who else are the Brewers going to be spending that money on?

 

If the Brewers don't spend that money on Prince they are going to be spending it somewhere else. More than likely it will be on free agents who are older than Prince and are more than likely in their decline. Prince being paid up to $20m a year wouldn't be a bad investment for the Brewers.

 

A strategy of relying on your farm system while on spending money on certain players sounds more like a great strategy than a terrible one. The Brewers really should stay away from free agency but that doesn't mean they should stay away from paying their players that they already have and need at free agent prices. I'm not even sure Prince is going to get the big bucks that some are thinking he will be getting especially if you look at the possibility of who maybe available after the 2011 season.

 

I can't under stand how you can be confident enough to say that paying Price $20 mil/year for 5-7 years is obviously better than any other possible free agent aquisitions. If it is, other teams will be tripping over themselves to offer him more, anyway. Unless you are presuming a home town discount, the logic falls apart.

[nate82]

I can't under stand how you can be confident enough to say that paying Price $20 mil/year for 5-7 years is obviously better than any other possible free agent aquisitions. If it is, other teams will be tripping over themselves to offer him more, anyway. Unless you are presuming a home town discount, the logic falls apart.

Because that is the best option for the Brewers. For one you already have a player that is playing in the city of Milwaukee and has been playing here for awhile now. To bring a free agent to Milwaukee you are going to be paying a premium either it being for an average player or an above average player. Prince by far is the best option for the Brewers of any future free agent where the Brewers will not have to overpay because of the city the Brewers play in.

 

Also paying for free agents that are past 30 years old is not a wise decision for the Brewers injuries and decline are going to be way to risky for the Brewers to sign players after 30 years old. Of course there are players who are out of the norm but there isn't an abundance of them on the market every year.

 

As for Prince's FA year there are going to be a lot of options available at DH and 1B for teams to choose from it is just in the best interest of the Brewers to sign Prince over any of those other players. Prince brings in more value to the Brewers than most of the players on the FA list that year.

[logan82]

We sure have paid a premium for talent like Cameron and Hoffman in the last few years.

[nate82]

We sure have paid a premium for talent like Cameron and Hoffman in the last few years.

Two players that the Brewers haven't had to pay a premium to get. One being the only other team interested wasn't going to give him the closing job and the Brewers were and the Brewers did pay a premium for Hoffman.

[logan82]

We still got both for less than $20M a year that some are suggesting we pay Fielder.

[JohnBriggs12]

We still got both for less than $20M a year that some are suggesting we pay Fielder.

Both together don't have half the value of Fielder. If Fielder matches his 09 numbers this year, $20 million is a bargain because you just don't replace those numbers. Now if you think his normal production is about what it was in 08, then you can find guys who can approach that for a lot less.

 

My thinking is if the Twins can afford Morneau and Mauer, at least for a few more years, then as reasonable as Braun's deal is, the Brewers should do what they can to keep Fielder and Braun together, even if it means surrounding them in the lineup with pre-arby and bargain veterans because any lineup boasting those 2 is a formidable one no matter who is surrounding them.

[logan82]

Both together don't have half the value of Fielder.

 

I think you are overvaluing Fielder by quite a bit.

 

Edit: or more likely knowing your hate for Cameron, way undervaluing Cameron.

[nate82]

Both together don't have half the value of Fielder.

 

I think you are overvaluing Fielder by quite a bit.

 

Edit: or more likely knowing your hate for Cameron, way undervaluing Cameron.

No you are comparing a closer who is getting paid a premium for a stat that is paid at a premium price (saves). Cameron's offense and defense are close to Fielder but at his age he definitely is not worth the same as Fielder. So no I don't think there is any under or over valuing. Only over valuing would be on Hoffman.

[Invader3K]

Cameron isn't relevant to the discussion. Cameron was more of a stopgap measure to fill a need after Hall somewhat faltered in CF. Fielder is more of a piece that you can build an entire offense around (with Braun, of course).

 

My earlier point was that we already got Braun at a discount. If we can't keep Fielder somehow, I'll be pretty disappointed. If it comes down to Boras leading him to greed and demanding that he hit free agency and sign for the highest dollar amount possible, I'll somewhat understand. However, if a genuine effort isn't made to try and re-sign him, I think it will be a mistake. We already have Braun at a discount...if we can sign Fielder for $15-20 million per year for 5-6 years, I don't think it should throw the team's payroll off. They can build around Braun and Fielder with young cheap guys like Escobar, Gomez, McGehee (maybe not a long term solution, but we'll see how he does this year), Gamel, Lawrie, Salome/Lucroy, etc.

 

Shouldn't we get to sign at least one of our home grown guys to a legitimate market value long term deal? If not, I have to ask again...what was the point of all this build up? Even the vaunted Twins have re-signed Morneau and are trying to re-sign Mauer. Why can't Braun and Fielder be our two cornerstones for the next five or six years? This team was willing to make a special exception for Sabathia...maybe they should do the same for Fielder.

[TooLiveBrew]

Both together don't have half the value of Fielder

Fielder 2009 WAR: 6.8

Cameron 2009 WAR: 4.3

Hoffman 2009 WAR: 1.5

 

Hoffman + Cameron = 5.8 WAR... so you're right. They didn't have half the value of Fielder, they had more than half. 85.3%, to be more precise.

[logan82]

Shouldn't we get to sign at least one of our home grown guys to a legitimate market value long term deal? If not, I have to ask again...what was the point of all this build up? Even the vaunted Twins have re-signed Morneau and are trying to re-sign Mauer. Why can't Braun and Fielder be our two cornerstones for the next five or six years?

 

If Fielder is willing to take a hometown discount sure sign him. Morneau's deal was for 6/$80M. No more than $14M in any year. If Fielder would sign that deal, sign him now. How likely is he to take a deal like that though? Neither of the two guys you mentioned the Twins signing are Boras clients. My guess is that Fielder will get close to $13M next year in arbitration and I believe that is on the low side.

 

If Fielder is signed to a 4+ year deal he will still be around when other guys start to get expensive. Parra and Gallardo will be eligible for arbitration after this year. Yes a couple guys will be replaced by cheaper talent, but much like this offseason, we are not likely to have as much extra money as we think.

 

I agree that we overpaid for Hoffman and I don't like the deal they signed him to after the 2009 season. The point is that we can get good players in Milwaukee even if we have to overpay a little for them. $20M isn't gong to buy just a couple average guys. You can get a couple good players for that.

[rluzinski]

To bring a free agent to Milwaukee you are going to be paying a premium either it being for an average player or an above average player.

 

There are also some players that probably prefer to play in smaller markets, so I'm not sure how large this supposed premium the Brewers have to pay really is. I bought the premium theory more when the Brewers were pathetically bad.

 

Prince by far is the best option for the Brewers of any future free agent where the Brewers will not have to overpay because of the city the Brewers play in.

 

You are presuming that Prince wouldn't prefer to play for a large market team just because he was forced to start his career in Milwaukee.

 

Also paying for free agents that are past 30 years old is not a wise decision for the Brewers injuries and decline are going to be way to risky for the Brewers to sign players after 30 years old.

 

Teams aren't clueless. If you have two free agents with identical projections, the older will, on average, be paid less. And I'm not too excited about signing any player to a 5+ year guaranteed contract anyway.

[logan82]

Shouldn't we get to sign at least one of our home grown guys to a legitimate market value long term deal?

 

No I don't think we should. I think we should develop as good of a team as possible internally and sign guys to deals like Braun's deal if possible. If they don't want to take a deal like that, we let them go on the market or trade them and maintain payroll flexibility filling in with short term deals on undervalued guys like Cameron. Occasionally we will have to make a short term deal for above market money to fill a need.

[Tbadder]

You sign Prince and that's all. You doom yourself to a temporary 2 man team and when Braun leaves a one man team. Yo is gone if you sign Fielder. He will simply use up the money. If small market teams want to sign players for large market prices then they must, must have a constant stream of high quality youngsters coming up. That does not describe the Brewers. Bad, very bad idea to sign Fielder at anything but their price.

[TooLiveBrew]

Fielder, even with a huge contract extension, is still very trade-able. There is just no way I can see that a shorter 'long-term' deal would be a bad idea for the Brewers.

[Jopal78]

Why wouldn't Prince and the Brewers simply do a two year extension at some point this season (2011 and 2012)? It is the most logical scenario that benefits both parties. The Brewers benefit from buying out his last arbitration year and his first year of free agency, and Fielder would gain the benefit of letting Pujols, Berkman, and Adrian Gonzalez drive up the market rate when they sign as free agents after the 2011 season. Why be the 2nd or 3rd best free agent at your position when you can be first?

 

I don't think Prince is going to stick around with the Brewers long term. With a few exceptions, money talks and the Brewers are not in a position to pay 20-25% of their team payroll (20+ million dollars )to one player; which Fielder would probably command from the big time AL teams when he's a free agent.

[Invader3K]

Jopal, you are right in that the glut of impending 1B-type players hitting the FA market may play to the Brewers' advantage in this.

[TheCrew07]

I'm pretty sure the trade for Gomez was with the future in mind, as opposed to just 2010.

To what end though? Cain has never hit enough to be an above average corner OF, he's a 5 tool prospect that hasn't put it all together, Schafer gets his first test in AA this year, farther down in the system we have Davis, Richardson, and Stang. We have decent enough prospects all the way down to Appleton. CF is an organizational strength at this point.

 

I say again it doesn't make sense to trade from a position of strength (position players) to acquire the same strength (position players). How do any of these moves for rentals or position players help secure the short term and long term future of the team when the true weakness of the team is the pitching staff? Sure players will get hurt, flame out, can be traded, etc... depth is never a bad thing, but artificially creating depth makes little sense to me, I argued against acquiring depth for depth's sake last off season when we traded for Wright because he was no better than what we already had in AAA. I'll say the same for Gomez... he's talented sure, but is he more talented Cain, Davis, or Richardson? What would have been wrong with a stop gap CF as Cameron initially was meant to be?

 

It shouldn't be stretch for others to understand why I'd be upset about flipping a top 5, at the very least top 10 SS coming out of 2008 into Gomez coming into 2010. A 1B prospect would have at least made sense (my dislike of moving a strength for a strength aside) since we have exactly zero all the way down to Helena, but another CF just because they let Cam walk? Where's the long term plan or thinking here?

 

What if Cain or Schafer takes off and Gomez flops going into 2011? We've essentially flipped one of the better SS in the game for...? I realize that's a worst case scenario from a Gomez standpoint, but it's a realistic possibility given his career to this point, he was obviously rushed and hasn't exactly responded well.

 

Hopefully we can start filling holes in the rotation with internal options starting in 2011 because it's become rather obvious that the only way the organization will add significant talent to the rotation is through internal upgrades. It's a realistic possibility that by the end of Wolf's deal he'll be our least talented pitcher and much like Suppan, why would we want to be paying our 5th best starter the most money? Note that I'm not comparing Wolf to Suppan as a pitcher, I comparing talent relative to the other pitchers in the rotation. Garland would be 32 in 2011, he want to sign a multi year deal as he's still fairly young, by 2012 or 13 the same could be said for him. Unfortunately our best case scenario is probably a Davis or Washburn on a 1 year deal... I've already made a case why I don't like either pitcher on a multi year contract, and honestly don't like acquiring them period.

 

Simply put, I've been hoping for more, moving significant value from the Brewers to acquire a pitcher of significant value, but I don't see that happening now. Fielder won't be replaced by a single player, but the offense could actually be as good in the future with better production from spots in the order that have been below average in Fielder's tenure in Milwaukee... like C for example, even reaching average production would be a plus. If we can lock in some cornerstone players on Braun type contracts, some young pitchers to Jame Shields type contracts, I feel pretty good about the long term future of the club with the mix of bats and arms in the minors, we're well positioned for success if we don't have to replace more impact talent than Fielder. We just don't have many impact hitters in the minors at this time, I still think Gamel is an impact hitter, Lawrie looks to be an impact hitter, for the rest I'm just not sure at this time.

[thebruce44]

The Brewers can't just go toe to toe with the larger market clubs. In order to be competitive every year they have to have an advantage (and it will never be in payroll). This advantage needs to be in production vs. cost.

 

Signing Fielder to a deal that pays him what he is actually worth doesn't play to this advantage. Furthermore, it presents massive problems to a team with a $80 mil payroll as the risk of injury or lack of production is too great in one player.

 

Braun's deal is a perfect example of this strategy, as is Pujols' current deal or Morneau's. The team shoulders some risk (but minimizes it with insurance) in exchange for getting an advantage at cost vs production from league average.

 

Conversely, I can't think of one fair market deal handed out by a small market club that has proved to be worth it.