Brewers plans for 2011 and after

[nate82]

Do the Brewers trade Fielder next year or in the middle of this year? or should the Brewers try and resign Fielder and go with Braun and Fielder as the future of the team and hope that the young pitching prospects the Brewers have develop into #2's and #3's.

 

Signing Fielder to a semi long-term deal might be a good idea though there are a lot of good free agents out there in the next off season but I doubt the Brewers would be able to land any of those free agents so should the Brewers just swallow the pill and try and sign Fielder after this season? Would a 5 year deal be enough to keep Prince in Milwaukee that would be near the $100m mark? I don't think Prince really is a $20m a year player but when you look at the options for the Brewers will the Brewers be able to replace the value they lose from loosing Fielder.

 

Of course signing Fielder would make the Brewers rely more so on their farm system to produce average to above average at other positions where the Brewers could fill those spots with free agents. I know having two players taking up the majority of your payroll is a bad idea but is it really that bad of an idea for small and mid market teams? The Twins are a mid market team and it would be wise for the Twins to lock up Mauer long-term no matter the price tag well at least within reason. Wouldn't the same be true for the Brewers to be able to lock up Prince for at least 5-years would be a good idea. The Brewers really are not going to be attracting a lot of super star free agents the same with the Twins.

 

I believe the Brewers, Twins, Rays, etc. should be locking up certain players and not going after high dollar free agent players that are either beyond their prime or just reaching the summit (just about 30-years old) and those type of teams should stay away from overly priced super star pitchers. If the Brewers are going to spend money I would rather see the Brewers give out a big contract to Prince over Lee or any other high priced free agent that will be available next year. I believe giving Prince $15-20m a year is a lot better than giving Lee that same amount of money over about the same time length.

 

If the Brewers sign Fielder to a huge contract there are options in the farm system that the Brewers can use to replace other players the Brewers would be losing (Weeks, Hart, and Bush). The Brewers can replace those three almost rather easily Lawrie can replace Weeks at 2B both are about the same defensively and offensively I will give the edge to Weeks when fully healthy. With Hart there are a lot of players that he can be replaced with Schafer, Cain, Gindl, and some more that are in the system. Replacing Bush will be a little bit more difficult but there are options to replace even him in Butler, Rogers, Scarpetta, and Arnett all of which are either close being on the team in 2011 or a year or two after.

 

I believe the money that the Brewers do have to spend should be spent on players like Fielder and Gallardo in the next few years. I believe the Brewers have enough young talent in the system now as far as pitching goes that the Brewers really could rely on Prince and Braun to be the ones to carry the team forward.

[Invader3K]

Good discussion. Supposedly Melvin was going to approach Boras about an extension for Prince this month. So far it seems we have heard nothing in regards to that. I think it would be worthwhile. I just don't know if Satan, er, Boras, will allow Prince to sign anything that buys out his free agency years. However, he would be wise to look ahead to the glut of 1B types that will be on the market soon, as well as a possible work stoppage if talks going into the next CBA fall apart. I don't think giving Prince a deal approaching $20 million/yr is out of line...he is a special offensive player that isn't easily replaced. I also agree with your premise that the team can surround Braun and Fielder with cheaper younger talent and still probably be competitive.

[nate82]

I don't think giving Prince a deal approaching $20 million/yr is out of line...he is a special offensive player that isn't easily replaced. I also agree with your premise that the team can surround Braun and Fielder with cheaper younger talent and still probably be competitive.

The biggest problem I see with giving Fielder that kind of deal is that you are going to have pitching concerns. Pitching is a premium and it costs a lot in free agency to get the pitching you need. The Brewers would be heavily relying on the farm system to generate some really good pitching prospects and we all know no matter how good we think our pitching prospects are not all of them are going to work out and be successful.

[monty57]

I think it's a good idea to find "cornerstone" players and lock them up. Prince is a special kind of player you just don't have a chance to have on your team very often, so I think we should make every effort to sign him. He probably fits into that Mo Vaughn/David Ortiz mold that could fall off a cliff after age 30, so I'd shoot for a 4-5 year deal.

 

As you stated, we have players coming up that should make us average/above average at most other positions, so putting a core of Braun/Fielder in the middle of a lineup should allow us to have a good offense for years to come. I'd then try to sign our top young talent to Braun-type deals. This trend came about after Fielder was already in arby, so we missed out on it for him, but players that look like stars (possibly Lawrie, Lucory, Gamel, etc) could be extended out early on, making them relatively cheap and maintining price stability. Also, players like Lawrie wouldn't start to become expensive until around the time Fielder would be leaving.

 

As we've found in the recent past, starting pitching gets really expensive if you have to buy it on the market. It seems we've stockpiled enough high-cieling arms in the minors that even with injuries and flame-outs, some of them have to become major league pitchers, enabling us to fill out our rotation relatively cheaply for the foreseeable future, probably beginning as soon as 2011.

 

If we didn't have talent coming up, I'd be all for trading Fielder next off-season (or mid season this year). Since we should be able to fill the roster with good, young talent for the duration of the extension, I'm all for locking Fielder up for 4-5 more years, if at all possible.

[paul253]

If I were Milwaukee, I'd work on signing Gallardo first. As bad as we need Fielder, I think Gallardo is more important. Plus then you can kind of gauge how much money you'll have available to throw at Fielder. Also this years development of Josh Butler and Mike Jones is really important. If one of them can hold down a rotation spot in 2011 it would be very beneficial and would allow us to save a lot of money from Bush. You'd have 4/5 of your rotation set in Gallardo, Parra (most likely), Wolf, and Butler/Jones with another wave of guys (Rivas, Anundsen, Arnett, Scarpetta, Rogers) not that far behind. As Nate mentioned, Hart can be replaced for cheap. Weeks can be replaced for cheap. Catcher and Centerfield will still be cheap. Third base will possibly be cheap with either McGehee or Gamel. Shortstop will still be cheap. Really the only position players who would be making a ton of money would be Braun and Fielder if you resign him. I would make Prince a legitimate offer, maybe even go over market value, to keep him. Braun and Fielder in the lineup for 4 or 5 more years would be this decades verrsion of Yount/Molitor.

[monty57]

I agree the Gallardo situation will need to be addressed soon as well. It's generally a more risky venture to sign a pitcher long-term, but we need pitching so bad, I'd like to see an offer made to Gallardo before he hits his arby years.

[Invader3K]

We have Gallardo under team control for four more seasons (if I'm not mistaken). There really isn't that much urgency there compared to Prince.

[monty57]

The urgency with Gallardo would be that the long term contract (a la Braun) is much cheaper if done while the player's still in pre-arby. Once you get to arby, then you're basically paying market price. However, the problem is whether you want to take a risk on signing a pitcher to a 6 year guaranteed deal, as you wouldn't do the deal unless you were able to buy out a couple of years of free agency.

 

I'd guess we'll hear something about Prince soon (either he signs a long-term deal, or we hear he was offered one and didn't accept). I doubt they'll sign Gallardo to a "Braun-type" deal, fearing the risk. From a risk perspective, I understand it, but as a fan, I'd like to see him locked up too. Get Braun, Fielder and Gallardo as a core, and see if Escobar, Gamel, Lawrie, Lucroy, etc deserve "Braun-type" deals when they've got some PT under their belts. Let Weeks, Hart, Bush, etc play until they're free agents and their replacements are ready.

 

Basically, draft well, lock up core players, trade or let others walk when they become expensive and we have ready replacements. Repeat as necessary.

[paul253]

Basically, draft well

 

Thats what I was thinking. Next years draft is going to be huge. They don't have any extra picks so they have to hit the jackpot with their first one and draft well overall in the first 5 rounds. I'd like to see a shortstop or first basemen with nice power potential (a lot like LaPorta) taken next season. The first wave of players (Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Fielder, and Braun) have had their run and the second wave (Lawrie, Gamel, Escobar, Cain, Schafer, Lucroy) need to come in and fill their shoes. We need to develope a wave after that in order to continue being successful.

[BrewCrewForever]

Basically, draft well, lock up core players, trade or let others walk when they become expensive and we have ready replacements. Repeat as necessary.

 

That is perfect, exactly what small and medium market clubs like the Brewers have to do to be able to contend. And we have done a good job of that and must continue. The Fielder decision will be huge, he would be fantastic to keep but at the same time will be very costly and we could get some nice cheaper players in return for him. I'm very interested to see how it will eventually play out. I can see both sides.

[TheCrew07]

Good topic Nate, but I don't think the organization has any sort of well thought out long term plan. If they did the minute Macha claimed to be in a "zim-zam" with Gamel he would have come back down, Parra would have stayed down until he was right and they would have brought up another pitcher, they wouldn't have left Hardy down in AAA just to acquire a year of service time, they wouldn't have bounced Hall through 3 positions and signed him to a long term contract, they wouldn't have traded Hardy for young CF with 2 prospect CFs at AAA and AA respectively to start next season, and so on. To put the Hardy trade into context, it would have been like trading for a young C with Salome at AAA and Lucroy in AA... other than the MLB roster is CF an organizational weakness? Is C an organization weakness other than the MLB roster?

 

It seems to me that as an organization we're just flying by the seat of our pants. For me it started with the Hall situation. Now I realize I was no fan of Hall's from the start, he just constantly rubbed me the wrong way... but If Hall was always going to be the odd man out at every position why sign him at all? If Hardy was the SS of the future, Braun the 3B of the future, Weeks the 2B of the future, then move Hall to CF right away and just ride him out through Arby. If he's not a long term solution anywhere, why are we signing a player at all? It just makes no sense.

 

It would appear that Melvin just plugs holes year to year and lets the roster shake itself out.

 

As far as Fielder is concerned I have no doubt that Melvin will ride him out into FA, offer a contract that some large market will add 60 more million to and 2 or 3 more years and the Crew will take the draft picks, just like Sabathia. The only way I see Fielder being dealt is if the Brewers are really tanking and out of the race. If he was going to be dealt I would have rather he was dealt at his peak value which is now passed us. I don't see the Brewers getting a Teixeira type haul for Fielder at the deadline... Prince isn't anywhere near as good in the field and while Prince is arguably a better hitter now, I'm just not sure any team will give up what Atlanta did.

[paul253]

To put the Hardy trade into context, it would have been like trading for a young C with Salome at AAA and Lucroy in AA.

 

I'm no Gomez fan, but this isn't exactly accurate. By 2 center fielders, I assume you're talking about Schaefer and Cain. First off, they will both start in Hunstville, so it may be two more years until they are even major league ready. Neither is as close as either Lucroy or Salmoe is. Second, Lorenzo Cain is just as valuable as a right fielder as he is a center fielder and can easily be moved. Plus, one could be used in a trade.

As far as Fielder is concerned I have no doubt that Melvin will ride him out into FA, offer a contract that some large market will add 60 more million to and 2 or 3 more years and the Crew will take the draft picks, just like Sabathia.

 

I doubt Melvin will settle for draft picks unless the Brewers take such a step forward this year that the playoffs in 2011 are expected. I will be furious if Melvin settles for draft picks. This team will be better off with 2 or 3 very high ceiling prospects under control for years than one last season with Prince.

[BrewCrewForever]

Yeah I don't want picks for Prince, I want players. Guys that are ready or very close to being ready.

[logan82]

The trades and moves this offseason seem to have been made to improve us for 2010. None of them look like good moves for 2011 and beyond except maybe the Wolf signing.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm pretty sure the trade for Gomez was with the future in mind, as opposed to just 2010.

[logan82]

Yes they will have Gomez for a few years, but they have options at CF so picking up Gomez doesn't seem like a good long term move to me.

[brewmann04]

I would hope to get Prince resigned to a long term deal and let the brewers developtheir own pitching prospects.We have alot in the lower minors and should continue drafting them cause Fa is not big issue for the Crew.

[logan82]

I don't think they can count on any of those arms in the minors until they prove something in AA. Some have, but we really don't have a stud at AA or above yet. They look like mostly 3-4 starters, which we need, but it would be nice to get a top of the rotation guy.

[rluzinski]

I think there's little doubt the Brewers will make an offer to Prince consistent to his worth to the Brewers. The problem is that he's worth more to a larger market team, even after the player compensation. If the Brewers want to pay Prince what he's worth to the Red Sox, I think that's a terrible strategy.

[nate82]

I think there's little doubt the Brewers will make an offer to Prince consistent to his worth to the Brewers. The problem is that he's worth more to a larger market team, even after the player compensation. If the Brewers want to pay Prince what he's worth to the Red Sox, I think that's a terrible strategy.

Why? Who else are the Brewers going to be spending that money on?

 

If the Brewers don't spend that money on Prince they are going to be spending it somewhere else. More than likely it will be on free agents who are older than Prince and are more than likely in their decline. Prince being paid up to $20m a year wouldn't be a bad investment for the Brewers.

 

A strategy of relying on your farm system while on spending money on certain players sounds more like a great strategy than a terrible one. The Brewers really should stay away from free agency but that doesn't mean they should stay away from paying their players that they already have and need at free agent prices. I'm not even sure Prince is going to get the big bucks that some are thinking he will be getting especially if you look at the possibility of who maybe available after the 2011 season.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, Prince faces a glut of similar 1B type free agents, and a possible MLB work stoppage in the near future. Prince might be wise to consider re-signing with the Brewers if they present him a "fair" offer.

[logan82]

Paying Prince probably means less payroll flexibility which is vital to a team with a mid-market salary like the Brewers. If we had solid options to surround Prince then paying him would make a lot of sense. As it is we will probably have question marks at 2-3 starting pitching spots and many positions around the diamond. If this was 2005, it would make a lot of sense to sign him long term.

[ILuvDaBush]

Locking up Fielder, if possible, has to be at the top of the list 1-2-3. Gallardo showed this year he can't always find the strike zone, and as mentioned, he has 4 years of team control ahead. Locking up those 4 years with Prince-Braun in the heart of the lineup gives us a young trio that few teams can match. Locking up Corey Hart in the past would have killed us. Locking up Bill Hall did kill us. But locking up the youngest player ever to hit 50 HR, even with his body type and all the concerns inherent, is the type of move that makes Milwaukee a dynasty. There is an incredible amount of talent on our farm, but outside of Jeffress and Lawrie, I see no one who can rival Yo-Braun-Prince in talent and ceiling. Championship role players but no one who could even begin to put together a HoF career. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I've always been of the opinion that superstars make those around them better (ask Albert Pujols, but gloss over A-Rod's Rangers). Prince is one of the best overall hitters (even if he weren't the greatest young power hitter since the Big Hurt) in the league.

[Invader3K]

We got lucky and locked up Braun long term to a below market deal...if we can't ever lock up any young player like Prince long term, is there really any point to all of this? Is the point just to be "competitive" without ever having a real chance to win anything?

[nate82]

Paying Prince probably means less payroll flexibility which is vital to a team with a mid-market salary like the Brewers. If we had solid options to surround Prince then paying him would make a lot of sense. As it is we will probably have question marks at 2-3 starting pitching spots and many positions around the diamond. If this was 2005, it would make a lot of sense to sign him long term.

I would rather pay Prince than pay 2-3 average guys $3-5m a year to be league average when there are players in the farm system that can do just about as good for league minimum.