Flexibility vs Using Your Money Now

[strawbossisevil]

I strongly disagree. If Bush or Suppan comes into spring training pitching poorly I don't see how Macha goes with them over Suppan. Bush has to prove he is healthy and Parra has to prove he can throw strikes to keep their jobs in that situation, that or Suppan has to just stink in spring training. Never underestimate a baseball manager's ability to overreact to a small sample, especially an older one like Macha.

Has there been any word of Bush not being ready to go for this season? If there is, I haven't heard it. Just because he struggled through an injury at the end of last season doesn't mean that Macha and Melvin don't recognize him as a guy who should be in the rotation if healthy.

 

And while I suppose it's possible that Parra could be sent down, I imagine the team will want him going every 5th day under the tutelage of Peterson.

 

If Macha starts Suppan over Bush or Parra that is an epic fail and I'm guessing will almost assuredly get him canned. While I know fans like to play up the stupidity of the managers, I would find it utterly shocking if they went with Suppan over either of these two unless they just plan on punting the season. If he starts Suppan over either of those two for reasons other than injury, I will not buy ONE ticket all year.

[TheCrew07]

Here's a question that has been bouncing around in my brain the past few weeks. Melvin is always talking about the need for our team to remain flexible for a midseason deal.

I think this statement is Melvin's fundamental flaw. He wants to make moves if "we're in it" trading assets on marginal or unnecessary upgrades instead plugging holes with players with longevity who will likely remain above average for their service time in Milwaukee. For example the list of players we've moved in the past 4 years without acquiring a quality starting pitcher with some longevity is staggering, especially since pitching has been an organizational wide issue since Melvin took over as GM. I hate to keep constantly repeating myself but the Brewers are in a position where they can't afford to ditch 3 or 4 minor league players regardless of quality for a 3 month solution. Yes I know all about draft compensation but it's the value of a draft pick is nearly impossible to quantify.

 

It's something that the large markets can do, because they can afford to bid on the best free agents, but because they do it and the press reports about the deals constantly people think it's just the baseball norm, when I think it's a horrible solution for a team in the position Milwaukee finds itself in. I think all Melvin has really done is make it harder on himself to acquire any sort of meaningful pitching talent. He's very conservative when it comes to acquiring pitching and his preference for deadline deals has led him directly down the path to the 2009 rotation, and as the 2010 rotation is shaping up I'm unsure if the rotation will pitch enough innings as currently constructed. Unless Gallardo takes a big step up we have a whole rotation of 6 inning pitchers and a manager who likes to push young pitchers too far... Wolf averaged 6.3 IP per start last year and Gallardo 6.18, every other returning pitcher was under 6 IP, Wolf isn't a spring chicken anymore, and color me unexcited if Yo is pitching 120 pitches to get through 7 IP every time out, I'd rather not have another Brewer version of Cole Hamels...

 

My answer to your question is neither... I'm not into signing marginal quality FAs now or trading for rentals mid season. Going into 2011 we'll need another 2 starters as Suppan and Bush will be gone, there's a possibility that Parra never figures it out either and he's out of the rotation leaving Gallardo and Wolf. Is Melvin going to target more FA pitching after this season or will Butler and Rivas be ready to go? With all of the young pitching coming I'd rather not tie another declining pitcher into the rotation for multiple years because he's "established", and I'd rather not trade any of this pitching that's starting to mature for another rental player to make a push because Fielder may be gone soon. The long term pitching health of the organization is more important than trying to win now with Fielder.

 

I'll lose though, I always do with Melvin, he'll make a mid season deal that I loathe if the Brewers are even remotely in the hunt, and we'll be revisiting this same topic next off season.

[logan82]

I agree that keeping flexibility is important. There will be injuries. Being able to address a need midseason is a good strategy.

[Ennder]

If Macha starts Suppan over Bush or Parra that is an epic fail and I'm guessing will almost assuredly get him canned

 

See I really disagree with this. I think you are just undervaluing Suppan here. The reality is that out of those 3 pitchers Suppan had the better 2009. Out of those 3 pitchers Suppan has been better overall over the last 3 years.

 

Bush has a 5.06 ERA over the past 3 years

Parra has a 5.17 ERA over the past 3 years

Suppan has a 4.93 ERA over the past 3 years

 

Bush finished the season pitching unevenly after an injury(8.10 ERA in 7 starts) and Parra finished it with the continued inability to throw strikes(1.87 WHIP in 2nd half). Now from a pure talent level I agree with you that Suppan is the lowest upside, but if Parra or Bush come into spring training pitching poorly I think it is a fight for the 5th spot. Suppan earns the most money which shouldn't matter but we all know it does. Suppan is probably the worst fit as a bullpen arm as well.

 

I think it is a stretch to say that Suppan is the one who sits. I think it is even a bigger stretch to say that if that happens and Suppan starts it will get Macha fired. Suppan is a pretty vanilla #5 starter at this point in his career but Bush and Parra haven't been consistenly good in the past few years either.

[strawbossisevil]

For example the list of players we've moved in the past 4 years without acquiring a quality starting pitcher with some longevity is staggering, especially since pitching has been an organizational wide issue since Melvin took over as GM.

Staggering isn't the word I'd use for it, in fact while I agree with you that I'd rather not give up more prospects, Doug has yet to trade away a prospect that has developed into an above average major league player. He gave up LaPorta who may become that eventually, but LaPorta's numbers last season were not super exciting, an OBP of .308, an OPS of .750 as a 24 year old (hardly young). For a comparison, many here were disappointed in Gamel's hitting, but Gamel actually put up a better OPS last season than LaPorta. Add to that fact that LaPorta is a liability defensively playing anywhere but at 1B and to this point that move has not benefited the Indians all that much (and we replaced LaPorta in the move by signing a high ceiling guy, Kentrail Davis, with the pick we got from Sabathia). You might point to Brantley and his .358 OBP, but then it is only fair to point out that he is slugging about as well as Jason Kendall, while being mediocre defensively for a CF. While he's not a horrible option in CF, he's really not any better than Gomez is for the Brewers. It also could be added that Brantley got thrown out trying to steal about 10% of the time he got on base, but that is just poor coaching.

 

Those are the two biggest names we have moved. We moved Inman, who was projected to struggle to make it to the big leagues and those projections turned out to be correct, and the other pitcher we sent in that deal, Garrison, while promising has spent more time on the DL than on the mound.

 

Examples of teams getting young, top of the rotation, cost controlled starters via trades are few and far between. You've pointed to the Rays getting Kazmir as an example, or the Twins getting Garza, but those moves jump of the page because they are indeed so rare, as quite often the only way a team would be able to trade for such starters is to give up a player like Fielder or Braun in a trade, a true difference maker.

 

The biggest problem for the Brewers has not been the trades they've made so far (because amazingly they've done very well on selling high on their prospects), but instead the problem was Jack Z leaving the organization with bare cupboards in the area of starting pitching. Despite that fact, Melvin has been able to maintain a rotation that has been average over his tenure here (with some major ups, and some major downs) and the numbers back that up.

[Invader3K]

I guess I just come back to the fact that I believe it makes more sense to go into April with a strong rotation than with a questionable one, and praying you can somehow hold out to July for a trade that may or may not be there. Hope is not a plan.

[strawbossisevil]

See I really disagree with this. I think you are just undervaluing Suppan here. The reality is that out of those 3 pitchers Suppan had the better 2009. Out of those 3 pitchers Suppan has been better overall over the last 3 years.

 

Bush has a 5.06 ERA over the past 3 years

Parra has a 5.17 ERA over the past 3 years

Suppan has a 4.93 ERA over the past 3 years

 

Bush finished the season pitching unevenly after an injury(8.10 ERA in 7 starts) and Parra finished it with the continued inability to throw strikes(1.87 WHIP in 2nd half). Now from a pure talent level I agree with you that Suppan is the lowest upside, but if Parra or Bush come into spring training pitching poorly I think it is a fight for the 5th spot. Suppan earns the most money which shouldn't matter but we all know it does. Suppan is probably the worst fit as a bullpen arm as well.

 

I think it is a stretch to say that Suppan is the one who sits. I think it is even a bigger stretch to say that if that happens and Suppan starts it will get Macha fired. Suppan is a pretty vanilla #5 starter at this point in his career but Bush and Parra haven't been consistenly good in the past few years either.

So apparently you only use ERA and not the more advanced metrics when it agrees with your point?

 

Bush was pitching through pain, clearly. It's doubtful that will be the case come spring as he's had a whole offseason to work through that, and there have been no reports of him still battling injury.

 

As for Parra versus Suppan, so often it is you looking at the advance metrics and showing just how poor perception is on a player. It feels strange that today I get to return the favor.

 

Parra's FIPs from the past three seasons are 3.35, 4.16, and 4.88.

Suppan's FIPS from the past three seasons are 4.42, 5.51, and 5.70.

 

Next year by all of the major projections, Suppan is expected to land somewhere between a 5.09 and a 5.48 ERA.

Parra on the other hand is projected to finish somewhere between 4.59 and a 5.13 ERA. Plain and simple, Parra was the better pitcher the last three seasons, and he'll be the better pitcher next season barring an injury. Over the past three years he's been far better at controlling the events that a pitcher is capable of controlling in the game, and I don't think that fact is lost on Melvin and Macha.

 

Doug has already stated that they are going to decide the rotation regardless of the cost of the players. Add to that the fact that sticking Parra in the pen would hurt his conditioning for next season when we lose Bush from the rotation, and it makes even less sense. Suppan may not be a late innings reliever type, but he certainly could be a mop-up guy ala Elmer Dessens. Going with Suppan rather than Parra in the rotation would likely cost the Brewers .5-1.0 Earned Runs per 9 innings. Anyone know how many wins that would theoretically cost us over the course of a full season?

[Ennder]

As for Parra versus Suppan, so often it is you looking at the advance metrics and showing just how poor perception is on a player. It feels strange that today I get to return the favor

 

For 3 years of data with players on the same team I'd say ERA is as useful as FIP probably, but I'm not the one making this decision Macha is. Do you think Macha is going to go by FIP or xFIP? I'm not arguing who should or shouldn't start, I'm arguing who will start.

[strawbossisevil]

For 3 years of data with players on the same team I'd say ERA is as useful as FIP probably, but I'm not the one making this decision Macha is. Do you think Macha is going to go by FIP or xFIP? I'm not arguing who should or shouldn't start, I'm arguing who will start.

Again, this makes no sense. Even over the larger sample of three years, the fact is when looking at FIP, Suppan has been extremely fortunate the past three seasons, while the opposite has been true for Parra. Either you buy into the belief that pitchers can only control so much and that FIP is the best reflection of how they performed in that regard, or you don't. Your opinion sounds awful wishy washy. You want to believe one thing, but believe the opposite viewpoint has merit as well.

 

Parra has to be in the rotation, and here's why. Next year two of our pitchers hit FA (Bush and Suppan), if Parra isn't set to step in as a starting pitcher at that point because he spent a year losing his stamina in the pen, we are in a very tough spot. So he has to stay stretched out, and he can do that either in AAA (where he's got nothing left to prove) or in the MLB (where his secondary numbers suggest he should be successful).

 

I'd say that without a doubt Suppan is the MOST likely to be out of the rotation of the three (Parra, Bush, Suppan) if we add another starter even with Macha's love for old starters.

[Ennder]

Either you buy into the belief that pitchers can only control so much and that FIP is the best reflection of how they performed in that regard, or you don't[/quoet]

 

First off I hate FIP and think it is pretty useless, I'd rather use xFIP in every situation. Second off I don't think these stats are the best reflection of a pitcher over a large sample, I think they are the best reflection of a pitcher over a small sample. Pitchers do have some control over BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB%, those stats do tend to vary heavily season to season though. If you give me 5 years of data with all things being equal I'll just judge the pitchers by ERA. If they are on different teams I'd use a combination of xFIP and ERA. FIP by itself just doesn't tell me anything at all, it is a stat that corrects a couple areas of potential variance and not the last one so it ends up not meaning anything.

 

If you give me one season of data I'll look at ERA and xFIP and regress it towards career numbers. None of that matters though because it isn't my decision, it is Macha's. In Macha's head Parra is completely unreliable and Bush has to display the fact that he is healthy before he can trust him. Again I'm saying if we go into spring training and Suppan pitches normally and Parra or Bush bomb here. If all three are solid in spring training then I think the odd man out probably is Suppan, but I think it is going to be one of those open competitions where the small sample wins.

[valpocrewsader]

Staggering isn't the word I'd use for it, in fact while I agree with you that I'd rather not give up more prospects, Doug has yet to trade away a prospect that has developed into an above average major league player. He gave up LaPorta.... You might point to Brantley.... Those are the two biggest names we have moved.

Don't forget Nelson Cruz, he developed into a star last year. Jorge de La Rosa put up above average numbers for a COL pitcher last year, if he can repeat that success he should be in the discussion. Too soon know know anything abut Laporta.

[TheCrew07]

When I talk about giving up prospects I'm not suggesting that any of the players will be sorely missed... What am I saying is that the team has moved a rather large amount of prospects in deals without addressing the single biggest flaw in the entire organization, a long term starting pitching solution. Every asset DM moves is obviously an asset that he doesn't get back. For example, as I argued at the time the team wasn't going anywhere with or without Lopez, so he basically gave away prospects for nothing. Furthermore McGehee/Counsel would have been a fine 2B platoon which would have allowed Gamel to actually play instead of wasting his service time on the bench. Those unnecessary moves like the Linebrink deal come back bite you when there isn't the prospect depth left to make a trade for a true position of need. None of the prospects outside of LaPorta could have headlined a deal but they could have added significant value as the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th players in the deal. Hart +, Gamel +, etc... but those deals aren't really possible now.

 

I don't buy the "well Melvin was going for it" take either... even if it's true he needs to be smarter than that because the team has finite resources that should only be used fixing the actual root issue, and not the symptoms like in the case of Lopez and Linebrink. I still firmly believe that acquiring Sabathia hurt the organization long term as well, acquiring Sabathia in 08 directly led to the pitching debacle in 09, and we still have rotation issues coming into 10. Yes I know "playoffs", I realize that meant a great deal to the majority of fans, but it wasn't a solid long term plan on the baseball field, and it came within a single game of failing as well.

 

To the point about the prospects in particular, I hope Bryson bounces back from surgery, he was one of my boys. LaPorta will be a fine MLB player, Brantley has a reasonable chance to be average or better, Gillespie will be a solid reserve for someone, Mercedes is a good BP candidate, Thatcher has been up and down with SD for 3 years, and Garrison looks to be a back of the rotation starter or BP guy. There's a significant amount of quality in that group that could have been packaged for a starter if things had fallen differently, but we'll never know now.

[strawbossisevil]

No, I didn't forget Cruz, valpo, because he was available to the Brewers or any other team on waivers well after the trade. It wasn't until after he was passed through waivers that he put up the big numbers.

 

Jorge de la Rosa was not sent off before being given every opportunity to succeed in a Brewers uniform, he just never did, neither did he in a Royal's uniform. It took until last season in Colorado before he became anything remotely close to a competent pitcher.

 

Crew07, Lopez cost a guy who will likely never crack the starting lineup, players like him are a dime a dozen in any minor league system and we have a dozen more in our minor league system. I don't think the Brewers problems in getting trades done has been a lack of Cole Gillespies.

 

Without getting Sabathia, we would not have made the playoffs that season, period. And I'm pretty sure trading LaPorta for a middle of the rotation starter (the best you'd likely have gotten for him, since he profiles defensively only as a 1B and scouts were saying there were holes in his swing) before last season would have solved our issues. Even with a middle of the rotation guy we don't make the playoffs last year. And we wouldn't be in all that much better shape for this year than we are currently. Without the Sabathia trade, it's entirely possible that Prince Fielder's time on the Brewers could have come and gone with NO playoff appearances. That's why when you get a chance to lock up a playoff spot, you do it, you live in the moment in some respects because the amount of times you'll have a shot at the playoffs are limited (especially as a small market team).

 

It remains to be seen how good of an MLB player LaPorta will be, if he's in the outfield much of his value is negated by his horrible defense, and to this point he hasn't even been good enough offensively to justify playing him. Brantley while he has good plate discipline has little pop in his bat, I don't see that improving dramatically, to this point he's Craig Counsell without being a plus defender and I don't see that changing much. I've already commented on Gillespie, so I'll leave that one be. Thatcher has not been as good as Stetter has been for us, and he's not likely to ever be a better than average lefty. Garrison could be in the back of a rotation, or out of baseball if he continues with his injury issues, as who knows how he'll recover from them. As for Mercedes, maybe. Not to say there is NO quality in that group, or that a few of them might contribute a bit at the big league level at some point, but I'll stand by my point that our system is not lacking these type of medium to low level talents, and that isn't why we haven't made a significant trade.

 

The problem is teams very rarely trade good young pitching, that's true of all of baseball, very few teams make trades for mid to upper part of the rotation pitching prospects. You can point to a handful of times when it has happened, but it takes a perfect storm of team needs and wants for something like that to happen. Especially now with the down economy where pre-arby middle of the rotation starters are even more valuable.

 

Crew, if you can ever get a behind the scenes tour of the GM office at Miller Park, I think you'd be surprised at all of the long term planning that is going on. The people I know who have gotten that opportunity to see it first hand would disagree whole heartedly that the team is going from year to year with no plan, because they got to actually see a ton of visible evidence of all the planning that is going on.

[monty57]

I fully agree that I don't want to see Parra in the bullpen. The reason that I think Parra should go to AAA with Suppan in the rotation if we get another, better starter, is that if Suppan is in the pen, he will not be ready to start if someone gets injured this season. Therefore, we would be putting our hopes on Narveson, Burns, Capuano or Mulder, and they all have big question marks surrounding them. In other words, we do not have enough Major League ready starters in our organization to have any of them moved to the bullpen... even Suppan.

 

Also, I don't care what stats are used for Parra. The fact is that he has great "stuff," but lost his confidence this year to the extent that he could (or would) not throw strikes. It makes sense that BABIP would go up if the only thing you throw for a strike is a meatball down the middle of the plate. I have no idea what his mindset will be coming in to this year, but I think he definitely has something more to prove at AAA. He needs to prove to himself and Brewers' management that he will be able to get into and out of tough situations without cracking.

[Invader3K]

I still firmly believe that acquiring Sabathia hurt the organization long term as well, acquiring Sabathia in 08 directly led to the pitching debacle in 09, and we still have rotation issues coming into 10. Yes I know "playoffs", I realize that meant a great deal to the majority of fans, but it wasn't a solid long term plan on the baseball field, and it came within a single game of failing as well.

This has to be an awfully lonely torch you're carrying at this point. Maybe it wasn't the "smart" move, but the 25+ year playoff drought was incredibly sad and pathetic (longest in all of pro sports, I think?). Unacceptable, really. It had to be broken, and it was. Too bad you can't accept that fact. I enjoyed the playoff run in '08, even if it was relatively short.