Flexibility vs Using Your Money Now

[strawbossisevil]

Here's a question that has been bouncing around in my brain the past few weeks. Melvin is always talking about the need for our team to remain flexible for a midseason deal.

 

My question is, does leaving money on the table now with anticipation of a midseason deal make us more likely to succeed or less likely to succeed this year.

 

Let me give an example. Let's say that we have about $6 million dollars left to spend at this point. Which situation would set the team up to succeed more:

 

Option A: Spending the 6 million dollars now on a pitcher. For that amount we'd hopefully find someone who is projected to have an ERA in the mid to low 4s. This starter pushes Suppan out of the rotation completely, leaving us a rotation of:

 

1) Gallardo

2) Wolf

3) FA

4) Parra

5) Bush

 

The advantage to this option is of course that the only time Suppan would be starting would be in the case of an injury to one our starters. We go into the season with a strong rotation, but have no money to compensate were we to be hit by a rash of injuries elsewhere on the club.

 

Option B: We save the $6 million dollars, and have Suppan pitch the first half of the season (and perhaps more if another member of the rotation goes down), but we are able to bring in a $12 million dollar type pitcher in the second half. (Possibly a Cliff Lee type, if Seattle isn't in the playoff hunt - along with that we lose at least two major prospects).

 

The advantage of this option is that we add a superior starter down the stretch, at the cost of some of our prospects.

 

Now which equation would be better for the team over the course of the season (and long term).

 

A) No Suppan in the rotation at Start of Season + Average Starting Pitcher + No Ability for Moves at the Deadline + Keep All Prospects

or

B) Half a Year of Suppan (more if injured) + Half of a Year of Elite Pitcher + Lose Two (or more) Elite Prospects

 

What I think: Option A is better for the regular season/long term success of the ball club.

Option B is better if/once we make the playoffs (having an Elite Pitcher being an advantage to having an Average one in short playoff rotation).

 

What do you all think? Do you see Melvin's talk of midyear flexibility as wise? Or do you think the Brewers ought to pony up now and get an average starter so that Suppan is no longer part of the opening day rotation?

[BrewersSuperCollector]

I believe option B is better. The Brewers have only the amount of money thats in their pockets. If they are in contention then I would see the ability to make a run and stretch every last dollar. If they are not in contention I would rather use the left over money in the future.

 

I thought the Brewers should have tried to get anything they could at the deadline last year for the players they thought would not be back for this year. I thought they could have gotten some young players for Counsell, Cameron, Weathers, and even Kendall. These players could be used in later trades if the Brewers are in contention.

[owbc]

I thought the Brewers should have tried to get anything they could at the deadline last year for the players they thought would not be back for this year.

Bailing at the deadline was not a reasonable option last year. The Brewers were .500 and 4 games back. Good luck selling that to a fan base that has seen one playoff appearance in the last quarter-century.

 

The bad thing about deadline trades is that you have to give up something besides money and usually have to pay a premium for 2 months of use. The good part is that you can directly address your needs. Some years (like 2009), it is obvious that the Brewers needed starting pitching. Other years, we do not really know on April 1st what our biggest need is going to be on July 31.

[strawbossisevil]

I believe option B is better. The Brewers have only the amount of money thats in their pockets. If they are in contention then I would see the ability to make a run and stretch every last dollar. If they are not in contention I would rather use the left over money in the future.

 

I thought the Brewers should have tried to get anything they could at the deadline last year for the players they thought would not be back for this year. I thought they could have gotten some young players for Counsell, Cameron, Weathers, and even Kendall. These players could be used in later trades if the Brewers are in contention.

Right, but that ignores the fact that if they don't go with option A, they are less likely to be in playoff contention at the halfway point of the season.

 

And as others have pointed out, the Brewers were still in the playoff chase at the deadline last season, so to sell off then wouldn't have made sense.

[Invader3K]

I'm more of the thought that you do everything you can before the season, and spend up to your limit. I'd rather go into April strong, then go into April questionable. Also, if you set money aside, you could be looking for a needed trade that isn't there. Isn't that basically what happened this past July? Melvin desperately tried to add starting pitching, everyone knew he needed starting pitching, and he came away with Claudio Vargas. I really don't want to see that situation play out again.

[Ennder]

To be realistic here option A does not mean Suppan is out of the rotation. It means Suppan, Bush and Parra compete for their jobs in spring training and the one who does the worst in a small sample loses their job with Suppan probably being the least likely to lose it. My guess is signing another SP pushes Bush or Parra into the bullpen, most likely Parra unless he is lights out in spring training.

[igor67]

I think the strategy is a little more contingent than just one or the other. If you have major holes then by all means try and take care of as much as possible. On the other hand for a mid range team you don't have holes so much as some soft spots, and depth questions. In that case you are better off having some reserve that you can sit back and see exactly where the major issues are going to crop up that year. It's easy to point to the pitching and say that's a likely issue. However take Week's injury last year, I wasn't a big fan of the Lopez deal but that type of injury is the kind of situation you might want some reserve money for. In this case Doug really did great in season production from Lopez, and at least kept things interesting.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

On July 27th, the Brewers were 4 games back in the division, and 5 GB for the wild card. Rickie Weeks was out for the year, and the pitching staff in shambles with Bush on the DL, Suppan was having problems as he was put on the DL days later. Did anyone really think the Brewers had a shot at the playoffs at that time. I do admit I thought the Cubs would run away with it by getting Derrek Lee healthy, and I also thout Zambrano would turn it around.

[Invader3K]

While they were 4 GB in the division, I think the Cards and Cubs had enough question marks that a run at the top of the standings was not an outlandish thought. If Melvin could have gotten a decent starting pitcher via trade (like, oh, Randy Wolf as an example), it could have made a difference down the stretch. Remember that this team still finished 80-82 despite horrid starting pitching.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

What about on August 25th when the Brewers were 11 back. How about getting something off waivers for them.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I don't think trading some guys in late August would have been a bad idea. July was a different story, though. The economic reality is that the Brewers rely on ticket sales for quite a bit of their revenue. If they want to field a competitive team, doing a July fire sale would have had negative consequences for this season.

[endaround]

Not sure there was really anyone to move in August. Counsell? Wanted him back this year. Hoffman? Wanted him back. Lopez? Maybe. Now picking up Weathers? That was a waste of like $3m that didn't need to be spent.

[JohnBriggs12]

Not sure there was really anyone to move in August. Counsell? Wanted him back this year. Hoffman? Wanted him back. Lopez? Maybe. Now picking up Weathers? That was a waste of like $3m that didn't need to be spent.

 

Counsell could have been traded in August and brought back this year. I disagree completely with Invader3K. There was no way the Brewers with their rotataion were going to catch the Cardinals. Once they traded for Holliday on July 24th, the division race was over. You had to be kidding yourself if you thought the Brewers had any chance unless you thought Wainwright and Carpenter would suddendly fall apart. Not only was the division out of reach by then, the Brewers were behind 6 teams in the Wild Card race and with their pitching really had no chance there either.

[monty57]

This thread has a copule of tracks to it.

 

On topic, I think the "flexibility" the Brewers are discussing includes the possibility of making a Davis/Garland type pick-up before Spring Training. As Ennder mentioned, Suppan would likely not be the odd man out if we sign someone. Parra or Bush would probably start in AAA or the 'pen, with Suppan as the fifth starter. I agree that you need some flexibility. If someone other than a pitcher goes down, we may need to sign a position player (a la Lopez last season). I hope they can sign a Davis/Garland and still have money to pick up a position player if needed mid-season.

 

As far as last season, I'm with BrewerSuperCollector. I really wanted the Brewers to trade the free-agents-to-be for some starting pitching that could help them in the future. I think they could have sold it to the masses if they were able to get young starting pitching. People rip the "casual fans," but they're smart enough to understand that trading for young starting pitching is a good thing, and they are able to look beyond the current year. At the time, in addition to Weeks being injured, Hart had just gone down (iirc), the starting pitching was banged up and the relievers were blowing games due to fatigue. I mentioned in a thread at the time that it could have been sold as "we had a competitive team to start the season, and we tried competing by signing Lopez. Now we feel we are able to pick up players that will bolster our rotation for years to come by trading plyaers who are not going to be here next year."

[TooLiveBrew]

Frankly, if the team makes any big consideration as to how the fanbase will react to a move, as opposed to just making good decisions, I'd be very disappointed. The problem imo wasn't the unwillingness to either sell off certain guys, or give up on the season, but how many teams does anyone realistically think would've been willing to give up "young pitching" for 1/3 of a season of someone like Counsell or Lopez? I mean, if the Brewers gave away any of their young pitching for that kind of a deal, I'd be very upset.

[monty57]

TLB, remember that Cameron and Hoffman were in that group as well. I'd bet at least some of the playoff hopefuls for last season could have found room for the best closer in the history of the game :-)

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't personally think Hoffman was available in that sense, since it's clear imo that the Brewers wanted to retain him beyond 2009. As for Cam, I think of him the same as Counsell & Lopez... what team should give up a young pitcher of any value for 1/3 of a season of a non-elite, impending FA? I guess if that deal was out there, then it's too bad the Brewers missed it, but I think it's going too far to just assume it was.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

I think it was a mutual understanding that Hoffman wouldn't be traded to a team that would not use him as a closer.

[monty57]

I'm not suggesting they could've received a #1 starter, but a mix of Cameron, Hoffman, Lopez, Counsell and even Kendall (if a team really valued a veteran presense at catcher) should have at least been worth a AAA pitcher who could be a #4/5 starter for league minimum for a few years. We'll never know, so I guess it's not really worth talking much about, but I know that last year I really wanted them to trade some of those players. Now knowing that we ended up 80-82 and got nothing for Cameron or Lopez, and probably could've signed Counsell back even if we had traded him, I still wish we would have something in return for it, even if it's only an average starter or a reliever.

[MNBrew]

Monte, I think you're right & you're wrong...

 

- I agree that that the collective talent of Cameron, Hoffman, Lopez, Counsell, & Kendall is worth something solid in return. That said, Melvin would've had to feel what the Brewers would've been getting was worth what they were giving up. Clearly that wasn't the case or deals probably would've happened.

 

- (p.s. to the above: Remember many here thought Hardy or Hardy-plus was worth Buchholz or a solid young starter, but all the Brewers could get for him was Carlos Gomez.)

 

- I disagree, in that trading 2 of those guys (since you say "a mix of...") for an AAA starter who might be a Dave Bush type would've met a huge outcry of disgust on this board, that the Brewers should've gotten a whole lot more in return for, say, a still-elite closer & either an upper-half CF or a .300-hitting versatile everyday infielder or .320 hitting starting 2B. You want more than ST roster fodder for your starters.

[strawbossisevil]

I really doubt that Suppan would keep his spot in the rotation if we added another average starter. I think Doug is smart enough to know that goose is cooked. Parra and Bush both have upsides and should be able to pitch later in games than Suppan.

 

Just because Suppan makes the big dollars doesn´t mean he´ll start, I got that impression when Doug talked about starting pitching at the end of last season.

[monty57]

I agree that that the collective talent of Cameron, Hoffman, Lopez, Counsell, & Kendall is worth something solid in return. That said, Melvin would've had to feel what the Brewers would've been getting was worth what they were giving up. Clearly that wasn't the case or deals probably would've happened.

 

Melvin was adding at the deadline last year. Although I'm sure he answered the phone when it rang, I don't think he was looking at dumping players not named Bill Hall.

 

(p.s. to the above: Remember many here thought Hardy or Hardy-plus was worth Buchholz or a solid young starter, but all the Brewers could get for him was Carlos Gomez.)

 

I agree we often seriously over- or under-value our own players. I heard many times that Cameron was worth $18MM+ per year and early in his career there was a big debate here on whether we should trade Prince Fielder for Zack Duke.

 

I disagree, in that trading 2 of those guys (since you say "a mix of...") for an AAA starter who might be a Dave Bush type would've met a huge outcry of disgust on this board, that the Brewers should've gotten a whole lot more in return for, say, a still-elite closer & either an upper-half CF or a .300-hitting versatile everyday infielder or .320 hitting starting 2B. You want more than ST roster fodder for your starters.

 

As TLB said, I seriously hope Melvin isn't managing based on what the fans (casual or Brewerfan.net) think. I'd guess casual fans would be easier to placate with a trade than many on this board. Personally, I'd rather have 6 years of a Dave Bush caliber pitcher than 2 months of Cameron and Lopez, since it really appeared to me we weren't going anywhere anyways. In fact, we could really use another Major League-ready pitcher right now, so that when the real Dave Bush (or someone else) gets injured or falters, we'd have someone to call up. Plus, we'd have someone to replace Dave Bush and Suppan next year instead of going to free agency and paying $7-10MM/year to a different Dave Bush-caliber pitcher. The fact that Melvin probably knew that he wasn't going to offer anyone arbitration, so we didn't even get draft picks, would have driven me harder to make a trade. Instead of a "Dave Bush caliber" pitcher, we have nothing.

 

We also had to pay the players for the remainder of the season, plus we added Weathers' salary. Had we sold, say Cameron and Lopez and not brought in Weathers, we would have saved $8-10MM. Some of that could have helped us get better for the future.

 

By no means am I proposing we give up on seasons often, but last year screamed "sell" to me (and many others). It wasn't only the games back, but the fact that we were injured and playing horrible baseball at that point in time. Instead we mildly bought, eating a lot of Cincy's salary liability in Dave Weathers, when he wasn't going to add much more than we would've gotten by bringing up someone from AAA. The only possible reason I thought that might be a remotely good pick-up was if he was going to be part of this year's team, but instead we bought out of the contract, so the pick up hurt this year's salary as well.

 

We were able to re-sign Hoffman and Counsell (we probably would have been able to re-sign Counsell even if we traded him). Other than that, we have nothing for the rest of the players that became free agents... not even draft picks. As Kenny Rogers said, you've got to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em. We should've folded 'em last year and we'd be in a better position now. Easy to say with hindsight being 20/20, but I (along with others) were screaming it last year.

[Ennder]

I really doubt that Suppan would keep his spot in the rotation if we added another average starter. I think Doug is smart enough to know that goose is cooked. Parra and Bush both have upsides and should be able to pitch later in games than Suppan.

 

Just because Suppan makes the big dollars doesn´t mean he´ll start, I got that impression when Doug talked about starting pitching at the end of last season.

I strongly disagree. If Bush or Parra comes into spring training pitching poorly I don't see how Macha goes with them over Suppan. Bush has to prove he is healthy and Parra has to prove he can throw strikes to keep their jobs in that situation, that or Suppan has to just stink in spring training. Never underestimate a baseball manager's ability to overreact to a small sample, especially an older one like Macha.

 

edit for typo

[monty57]

Since our biggest hole coming into the season is SP depth, I think it would be a mistake to put one of our few Major League-ready starters into the bullpen. I believe Parra has an option left (I may be wrong), so I would bet that if we add another SP that is better than Bush, Parra, Suppan, then we will see Parra go to AAA so that the team can make sure Parra's head's on straight, and he can remain stretched out. Suppan would remain in the rotation, not simply because of what he's being paid, but because we need starting pitching depth. Having him be the "long man" in the pen getting sporadic work and then expecting him to step in when someone is injured is a recipe for disaster. The difference between Bush, Parra and Suppan to start the season would likely be negligible. Someone will get hurt, and I'd rather have a fully stretched out Parra step in and pitch than a not-stretched-out Suppan.

 

Of course, if we can't afford a Davis/Garland type pitcher, then we'll probably go with a strategy similar to last year's Chase Wright / NIck Green (was that the guy from the Angels' name?) pick ups and hope for better results.

[brewmann04]

J say use the money now and worry about July wnen it comes around. Get a starter now and let hope we can get to July in the race.