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Sheets Throws Well During Workout; Cubs May Try to Sign Him?

prophet

By prophet,
in Transaction Rumors & Proposals

RockCoCougars ACL Brewers

RockCoCougars

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Notes look good but I think the days of Sheets hitting the mid-to-upper 90's are over.

 

The salary demands need to come down but I think some teams may be getting desparate enough to take the flyer. I will laugh my ass off if the Cubs sign him for that and he tanks.

 

I mean seriously, my rear end may fall off.

Yeah, but even if he can hit the low 90's he'd be pretty close with Gallardo as the hardest thrower in the starting rotation. Be careful what you wish for with Sheets signing with the Cubs. A lot of people thought that Favre would get hurt or tank with the Vikings before the season started and look what happened. At least the Packers replaced Favre with Rodgers.... the Brewers basically replaced Sheets with Soup.
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Invader3K Nashville Sounds

Invader3K

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Sounds like a lot of the talk is that Sheets may get a 1 year deal at $7-8 million now. That seems more reasonable than what his agent was supposedly demanding a month ago. Still puts him out of the Brewers' price range, and that excludes the fact that Sheets doesn't want to return to Milwaukee. I hope he stays out of the division, at least.
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TooLiveBrew Milwaukee Brewers

TooLiveBrew

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Sounds like a lot of the talk is that Sheets may get a 1 year deal at $7-8 million now. That seems more reasonable than what his agent was supposedly demanding a month ago. Still puts him out of the Brewers' price range, and that excludes the fact that Sheets doesn't want to return to Milwaukee. I hope he stays out of the division, at least.

I get the feeling that (what I've been suspicious is) Close's & Sheets' plan has worked out pretty well so far.

 

1) Demand a significant amount more than the other one-year, high-upside injury reclamation guys (Harden, Bedard)

1a) Incumbent upon the assertion that Sheets will be fully ready to go by Opening Day

2) Sheets works his butt off to be absolutely, positively 100% ready for his throwing session

3) Look very good in throwing session; physical conditioning ahead of where he'd normally be by ST time

4) Guarantee you're in the $7M/$8M/$9M range instead of $5M/$6M, since now at $8M, your asking price has 'come down'

 

 

I dunno, I could just be all full of hot air, but I felt initially that the $12M-ish asking price was just a negotiating tactic. It all sounded crazy when Sheets wasn't physically able to throw (along with his assertion that he'd be 100% ready to go come OD), but after the seemingly successful session, he's probably got a lot of suitors.

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/19/sheets-throws-very-well-cubs-mets-rangers-as-show-most-in/

"Sheets, who turns 32 in July, first threw 20 fastballs, topping out at 91 mph with his usual sinking action."

 

His fastball has more of a rising action, but whatever. He's averaged about 92-93 on his fastball the last few years, so his rehab is going pretty well, velocity-wise.

 

"The scout speculated that the Cubs, Mets and Rangers are the favorites to sign Sheets, a four-time All-Star who from 2007-08 was 25-14 with a 3.39 ERA."

 

I doubt the Brewers are even considering resigning him, so my only hope is that he doesn't sign with another NL Central team (ESPECIALLY the Cubs).

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thebruce44 First Round Pick

thebruce44

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Sheets, who turns 32 in July, first threw 20 fastballs, topping out at 91 mph with his usual sinking action. After a break, he threw another 20 pitches, half of them curves. Then in his third session, his fastball topped out at 88 mph and Sheets looked "gassed."

 

Someone is probably going to pay him 7 mil this year and get a guy who will be lucky to pitch 150 innings. If he was topping out at 91 mph and then going down quickly from there he may not be as effective. He was averaging 92-93 the last couple of years according to PitchFX, but if I recall correctly he could still get it up to the mid 90s if needed. Granted this is a very basic scouting report, but with what they are saying it doesn't sound as if he can be a very effective starter this year. Maybe he will be able to stretch things out in Spring Training though but I just don't see how he can be asking for so much money.

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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Granted this is a very basic scouting report, but with what they are saying it doesn't sound as if he can be a very effective starter this year.

 

You seem to be coming to the exact opposite conclusion that the scouts in attendance came to. He's throwing 91 in January. Pitchers in spring training aren't at max velocity either, so I think scouts see 91 as a positive. He could only go 2.5 (simulated) innings before getting gassed but again, it's January.

 

Teams would be foolish to not expect some drop off in performance but a team can even peg him for a 4 ERA and 100 IP in 2010, he's going to deservingly get $7+ mil from someone. I don't see most teams being comfortable with making that projection after one tryout but if he can stretch out and average 90 MPH over 5+ innings, he'll get his cash.

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thebruce44 First Round Pick

thebruce44

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Teams would be foolish to not expect some drop off in performance but a team can even peg him for a 4 ERA and 100 IP in 2010, he's going to deservingly get $7+ mil from someone.

 

I just don't see how that is worth $7+ mil with the other FA signings around the league this year. And yea, I probably am reading too much into him getting tired out after 40 pitches at this point.

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yount19.u Draft Eligible

yount19.u

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I saw video of Sheets working out for scouts and every time my 13-month old son saw him throw a pitch, he laughed. I don't know what that means, but it must mean something.
That's hilarious. If Sheets breaks down again this year I think you should put your son on the fast track to becoming a scout. The kid's got the eye!
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sheetswannabe First Round Pick

sheetswannabe

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If Sheets ends up on the Cubs then it is a certainty that I will change my username. That said, the guy has a ton of talent, but he is typically in horrible shape. Never knew a guy who would constantly get freak injuries, and blisters 24/7. I agree Yost beat him to the ground after he had back surgery but wow...
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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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I just don't see how that is worth $7+ mil with the other FA signings around the league this year.

 

This is how I look at it:

 

League average: 4.5 ERA @ 170 IP

Sheets' pretend projection: 4.0 ERA @ 100 IP

AAAA Scrub: 5.5 ERA

 

A league average is about 20 runs and 2 wins better than a AAAA scrub. Teams are paying something like $4 mil a win this off season, so that's $8 mil/year for an average pitcher.

 

If a pitcher goes 100 IP with a 4.0 ERA, that's about 17 runs or 1.7 wins better. 1.7 wins x $4.0 mil/win = ~$7 mil.

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bobskube Draft Eligible

bobskube

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Mets, Dodgers (pending marriage woes), and Cubs.

 

Hendry is keeping fans expectations low because he really took PR hits last two years by giving fans hope by saying he was in trade talks for Peavy last year and Brian Roberts year before that. If Hendry can get one year deal for Sheets...it just may happen. However, Hendry is on chopping block so it may be too risky but he is a gambler by nature. If Sheets succeeds and Cubs win...Hendry buys 2 more years for himself. If not, he would probably be gone.

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thebruce44 First Round Pick

thebruce44

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I just don't see how that is worth $7+ mil with the other FA signings around the league this year.

 

This is how I look at it:

 

League average: 4.5 ERA @ 170 IP

Sheets' pretend projection: 4.0 ERA @ 100 IP

AAAA Scrub: 5.5 ERA

 

A league average is about 20 runs and 2 wins better than a AAAA scrub. Teams are paying something like $4 mil a win this off season, so that's $8 mil/year for an average pitcher.

 

If a pitcher goes 100 IP with a 4.0 ERA, that's about 17 runs or 1.7 wins better. 1.7 wins x $4.0 mil/win = ~$7 mil.

Considering we went with DD for $5 mil who has averaged 2.17 wins over the last 3 years, I still don't see how Sheets is worth $7 mil. I think the $4 mil/win is inflated by the upper tier of pitchers. The guys who are left will probably not be paid $4 mil per win.

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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I just don't see how that is worth $7+ mil with the other FA signings around the league this year.

 

This is how I look at it:

 

League average: 4.5 ERA @ 170 IP

Sheets' pretend projection: 4.0 ERA @ 100 IP

AAAA Scrub: 5.5 ERA

 

A league average is about 20 runs and 2 wins better than a AAAA scrub. Teams are paying something like $4 mil a win this off season, so that's $8 mil/year for an average pitcher.

 

If a pitcher goes 100 IP with a 4.0 ERA, that's about 17 runs or 1.7 wins better. 1.7 wins x $4.0 mil/win = ~$7 mil.

Considering we went with DD for $5 mil who has averaged 2.17 wins over the last 3 years, I still don't see how Sheets is worth $7 mil. I think the $4 mil/win is inflated by the upper tier of pitchers. The guys who are left will probably not be paid $4 mil per win.

 

I've seen fangraphs use $3.5 mil/year. I don't think it's less than that. I think Davis was a good signing.

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